Thai Finance Min: economy likely to grow no more than 3%

[webfact]

Min of Finance: economy likely to grow no more than 3%

BANGKOK, 16 July 2015 (NNT) – The Ministry of Finance has said that economic growth will likely shrink further due to sluggish exports.

Minister of Finance Sommai Phasee said the second half of the year would underperform the first half, pushing this year’s economic growth down to 2.6 percent. He blamed the troubled export sector, which was forecast to suffer a deficit of 1.7 percent this year.

Mr. Sommai explained that investments by the public and the private sector expanded 4.2 and 15.3 percent, respectively, but were unable to offset lackluster exports. The government’s investments represent no more than 22 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), whereas exports account for 74-75 percent of GDP.

The government this year has planned to speed up its stimulus plan, particularly the 78-billion-baht water management and road construction projects. The government and its contractors have approved 60-70 percent of the projects’ budget. Disbursement will begin in August.

As for next year, the government has given the green light for planned construction of three new motorways and a few more subway lines.


-- NNT 2015-07-16

[Orac]

Can someone help me with how GDP is made up as these figures don't make a lot of sense from how I understand it.

If govt investments is 22%, exports are 75% it must mean that consumer spending, which would include tourism, and private investment between them only come to 3%???

[TheAppletons]

Can someone help me with how GDP is made up as these figures don't make a lot of sense from how I understand it.

If govt investments is 22%, exports are 75% it must mean that consumer spending, which would include tourism, and private investment between them only come to 3%???

Tourism is considered an export. The country is "exporting" travel experience to visitors.

[chainarong]

An optimistic out look at that, how- ever figures never lie.

[mommysboy]

0% more likely.

[djjamie]

We can always look at FACTS to judge this in the future...And when looking in the future the Junta (to the despise of the 7%'ers) are usually correct.

The Junta have ben pretty spot on with tourist numbers when comparing them to official figures so I hope for the sake of the majority that these figures are reflective of the current situation.

Edited July 16, 2015 by djjamie

[Srikcir]

They got it wrong (January 2015):

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha yesterday vowed that his government would do its best to ensure a strong economic performance this year.

Commerce Minister General Chatchai Sarikulya said: "The government is confident that the Thai economy will grow by 4 per cent this year, driven by many stimulus strategies, as well as closer cooperation between government and private sector."

MR PRIDIYATHORN DEVAKULA, deputy prime minister in charge of the economy, said at a seminar arranged by the Stock Exchange of Thailand yesterday that he was confident Thailand's gross domestic product would expand by at least 4 per cent this year.

He got it right (March 2015):

Sommai said that a growth rate of 2%-3% will be acceptable for Thailand when the global economic slowdown still continues.

But everyone loses.

[rametindallas]

Wow, a Finance Minister not afraid to tell the unpleasant truth about the economy. What a refreshing change from Yingluck's Finance Minister, Kittirat na Ranong, whose 'little white lie' about the the growth of the Yingluck economy was supposed to build confidence in the Thai economy. His dishonesty shredded his reputation and credibility.

Mr Kittirat told a conference late last week that he had known the earlier target was unachievable. But, he said, “the finance minister needs to lie sometimes to create good feelings. The world knows this as a ‘white lie’. The goal is to create confidence, which in turn benefits the country as a whole.” http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4f908900-f045-11e1-93fa-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3g52GHtSv

.

[phoenixdoglover]

Just a couple of months back, Pridayathorn Devakula was dancing around the topic, using vague language to describe the outlook for 2015.

The worsening projection has been a long time in the making. There are very few positive factors for Thailand:

- exports are weak (lower demand)

- tourist arrivals may meet projections, but revenue is very much in question due to the changing mix

- internal performance of agriculture is looking bad, in view of the drought (irrespective of exports)

- government big project stimulus is behind schedule (despite the happy talk from the government, outside economists point this out frequently)

- foreign investment is volatile

The current government has a few levers to pull; I'm just not sure in any given week whether the economy leads the list of issues.

Edited July 16, 2015 by phoenixdoglover

[englishoak]

Only reason hes admitting anything is the turd polishing is no longer working and hasnt been for some time.

Be lucky to see 2 % by year end imo

Edited July 16, 2015 by englishoak

[ikke]

We can always look at FACTS to judge this in the future...And when looking in the future the Junta (to the despise of the 7%'ers) are usually correct.

The Junta have ben pretty spot on with tourist numbers when comparing them to official figures so I hope for the sake of the majority that these figures are reflective of the current situation.

Facts, exactly, that's what we would like to see, and forecast or predictions are not FACTS... When looking in the past (as we can't look in the future) the numbers are changing on a weekly base and never will get close to FACTS.

You can believe what you like to, together with the 30% other lovers, but not me .

[Solomon]

We can always look at FACTS to judge this in the future...And when looking in the future the Junta (to the despise of the 7%'ers) are usually correct.

The Junta have ben pretty spot on with tourist numbers when comparing them to official figures so I hope for the sake of the majority that these figures are reflective of the current situation.

What exactly have this Junta been correct about since May 22 2014? Koh Tao, Trafficking in People, Submarines, Uighurs, Economic management............

It is also quite apparent, looking back on the 2006 Junta, that they were clearly more wrong than right in every single thing that they did.

History is currently repeating itself, we don't need to look into the future to see this.

The Junta has indeed been spot on with all official figures, but that is only because they are the officials making up the figures to suit themselves.

For the sake of the majority, lets hope democracy is restored by the people ASAP

[DLock]

...meanwhile Vietnam's GDP will be around 6.3% and Cambodia's will be over 7% in 2015.

Give it a few months and Thailand at 2.6% will start looking optimistic.