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Baht plunges 'quite fast' to six-year low against US dollar


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Baht plunges 'quite fast' to six-year low against US dollar

Erich Parpart
Petchanet Pratruangkrai
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The continued strength of the US dollar and the weak gold price have led to the baht depreciating to a six-year low, trading at Bt34.84 to the greenback yesterday.

Chantavarn Sucharitakul, the Bank of Thailand's assistant governor for Financial Markets Operations Group, admitted that the baht is dropping "quite fast", losing about 2 per cent against the dollar this week.

This is faster than the depreciation of other currencies in the region, which have depreciated 0.3-1.5 per cent.

"The external factor is driven by market speculation that the US Federal Reserve will hike its policy interest rate within this year based on the Fed's comments and recent positive US economic data while the price of gold has dropped below US$1,100 per ounce, which has led to increased demand for the precious metal and demand for the US dollar as well," she explained.

In addition, there are concerns that Thailand's economic performance could be hit by the ongoing drought and the delay in the government's investment projects.

Such an outlook has prompted analysts to lower the country's gross domestic product forecast for this year, with second-half growth to be less than the first half.

Chantavarn said the BOT has not seen any irregularity in the forex markets with relation to the baht.

"The weakening of the baht is needed to support the economic recovery but too rapid a deprecation would make it difficult for the private sector to adapt so the BOT is keeping a close watch," she said.

According to Kasikornbank, the baht is projected to drop below Bt35 to the dollar in the fourth quarter of this year, trading within the target of Bt35.25.

Vallop Vitanakorn, vice chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council, said the weakening baht has benefited the export sector, but importers will be negatively affected, especially those importing consumer and luxury goods.

Kasikornbank said in a report that Thai authorities had acknowledged that the use of the exchange rate during this time is more effective than cutting interest rates to buoy the flagging economy.

Vallop said imported raw materials, which will be re-exported, would not be affected significantly as it can be offset by foreign exchange income.

However, imports of machinery or capital goods may also be delayed to avoid a higher cost due to the baht's weakness, but long-term projects should not be affected.

Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarikulya said the baht's weakness should boost export growth in the second half of the year after facing a contraction in the first six months with June shipments estimated to be down 6-7 per cent year on year.

Exports in the first half of the year dropped about 5 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Charl Kengchon, managing director of Kasikorn Research Centre, said the US dollar has been supported by recent positive economic numbers, which had led to the deprecation of currencies in the Southeast Asia region, including the Thai baht.

"The market expects the US Federal Reserve to hike the US interest rate in September, which has led to the strengthening of the US dollar and the depreciation of the baht, which is a common factor for the region, while the drop in the price of gold has led people to buy gold. This has led to the baht depreciating even further since gold deals would require US dollars as the currency for transaction," he said.

"The capital outflow from Thailand's stock markets is also contributing to the weakening of the baht," he added.

While the baht dropped to a six-year low yesterday, gold prices are now at a five-year low, trading at $1091 on July 22.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand Index has dropped by 3.33 per cent from the beginning of the year, with capital outflow of Bt35.82 billion to date, including about Bt20 billion this month.

Tim Leelahaphan, Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) economist and assistant vice president of its Research Department said the firm still expects the baht to be around Bt34.50 per US dollar by the end of the third quarter.

"Short-term factors from foreign speculation and the strengthening of the US dollar might push the baht to go beyond Bt35 per dollar," he added.

Prinn Panitchpakdi, country head at CLSA Securities (Thailand), said the baht might go past Bt35 per US dollar as cash is flowing back to the US.

"CLSA expect the baht to be at Bt35-Bt35.5 by the end of the year but it can swing between Bt33.8-Bt35.5 in the next 5-6 months from the US rate hike and the expected improvement of Thailand's economy next year," he said.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-plunges-quite-fast-to-six-year-low-against-US-30265111.html

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-- The Nation 2015-07-24

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British tourists will be happy, it'll be 55 baht to the £ again

I'd be even happier if it ever got back to the 70's and 80 would be just great, but I can't see it happening so shut your mouth MB1 and stop dreaming....gigglem.gifgigglem.gif

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British tourists will be happy, it'll be 55 baht to the £ again

I'd be even happier if it ever got back to the 70's and 80 would be just great, but I can't see it happening so shut your mouth MB1 and stop dreaming....gigglem.gifgigglem.gif

Ah, those were the days! :)

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British tourists will be happy, it'll be 55 baht to the £ again

I'd be even happier if it ever got back to the 70's and 80 would be just great, but I can't see it happening so shut your mouth MB1 and stop dreaming....gigglem.gifgigglem.gif

Ah, those were the days! smile.png

In 2004 a singha was around 25 to 30 baht at Sailor Bar on Soi 8 Pattaya and the UK pound was at a high at the time depending where you changed your money, bar fine was around 100 to 150 baht depending on bar, short time was around 300 and long time was 500 to a thousand, depending on quality of girl and attitude, if handsum man then sometimes maybe a freebie....

I only know about this because a good freind Iv'e known all my life, Lets just call him Pecker told me so....

Aaaaah the good old days hey, pull up a sandbag and tell them a story...facepalm.giffacepalm.gif

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British tourists will be happy, it'll be 55 baht to the £ again

I'd be even happier if it ever got back to the 70's and 80 would be just great, but I can't see it happening so shut your mouth MB1 and stop dreaming....gigglem.gifgigglem.gif

Ah, those were the days! smile.png

In 2004 a singha was around 25 to 30 baht at Sailor Bar on Soi 8 Pattaya and the UK pound was at a high at the time depending where you changed your money, bar fine was around 100 to 150 baht depending on bar, short time was around 300 and long time was 500 to a thousand, depending on quality of girl and attitude, if handsum man then sometimes maybe a freebie....

I only know about this because a good freind Iv'e known all my life, Lets just call him Pecker told me so....

Aaaaah the good old days hey, pull up a sandbag and tell them a story...facepalm.giffacepalm.gif

That was about the time I landed here ... and damn, things have got expensive since then with the drinks and the girls (so I've been told).

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Should be +40$$$ to the USD. I Can't believe a dump is so expensive to live in. I'll keep staying in Hong Kong, for this year at least.

UP TO YOU DARLING.........Stay in Hong Kong and enjoy, we no miss you Tirak...facepalm.giffacepalm.gif

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Should be +40$$$ to the USD. I Can't believe a dump is so expensive to live in. I'll keep staying in Hong Kong, for this year at least.

Hong Kong is cheaper than BKK or anywhere else in LOS now? Jeez I missed that piece of news.

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^^^ @kamahele - economics is not my strong point, but your post doesn't seem to add up to this dunce. I, too, earn baht, so sending money to my home country is now cheaper. Whereas if I earned my contract fees in dollars, it would buy me less baht.

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Should be +40$$$ to the USD. I Can't believe a dump is so expensive to live in. I'll keep staying in Hong Kong, for this year at least.

Hong Kong is cheaper than BKK or anywhere else in LOS now? Jeez I missed that piece of news.

Some peole are mixed up or deluded or really don't know what their on about........Maybe he was talking about Somalia....bah.gif

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Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarikulya said the baht's weakness should boost export growth in the second half of the year after facing a contraction in the first six months with June shipments estimated to be down 6-7 per cent year on year.

Tough luck as the other competing export countries also have their currencies depreciated in tandem with the USD strength. Not a smart dude.

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^^^ @kamahele - economics is not my strong point, but your post doesn't seem to add up to this dunce. I, too, earn baht, so sending money to my home country is now cheaper. Whereas if I earned my contract fees in dollars, it would buy me less baht.

No, it's more expensive now to send your money home (assuming dollars).

If the baht weakens you need to pay more Baht to buy a dollar. So previously a dollar cost you 30 Baht. Now it costs you 35 Baht (or whatever). It's more expensive for you to buy dollars.

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Should be +40$$$ to the USD. I Can't believe a dump is so expensive to live in. I'll keep staying in Hong Kong, for this year at least.

Hong Kong is cheaper than BKK or anywhere else in LOS now? Jeez I missed that piece of news.

For some things, absolutely. Electronics and WINE! My fav bottle is under 300B there. Over 1,000B here. Ugh.

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^^^ @kamahele - economics is not my strong point, but your post doesn't seem to add up to this dunce. I, too, earn baht, so sending money to my home country is now cheaper. Whereas if I earned my contract fees in dollars, it would buy me less baht.

You got it backwards.

Economics is not your strong point for sure.

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Afghanistan has just made their 2nd payment to the USA and Iraq is going to be making their 2nd payment as well it's in the billions of dollars so that is why one reason why the dollar is so strong, and interest rates are at some of the all time lows with great rates.

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Should be +40$$$ to the USD. I Can't believe a dump is so expensive to live in. I'll keep staying in Hong Kong, for this year at least.

Well it isn't particularly cheap there either is it.

I can afford a cat to swing here, and get room to do so.

Horribly overcrowded place HK.

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Should be +40$$$ to the USD. I Can't believe a dump is so expensive to live in. I'll keep staying in Hong Kong, for this year at least.

View from my dump in Bangkok. 555

$350 a month.

Olympic pool, beautiful gym, roof top gardens, on demand hot water, bone chilling Air Con...... triple security (road, grounds, and lobby) .. laundry and restaurants in the lobby .. Oh, did I mention the gardens ON THE RIVERSIDE?

Match that in Hong Kong...

Please... stay there .. please!

post-145190-0-16020600-1437707905_thumb.

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Should be +40$$$ to the USD. I Can't believe a dump is so expensive to live in. I'll keep staying in Hong Kong, for this year at least.

Well it isn't particularly cheap there either is it.

I can afford a cat to swing here, and get room to do so.

Horribly overcrowded place HK.

No worries my friend, no one with any working knowledge of Bangkok verses Hong Kong could possibly write this tripe.

I smell a whine made for very sour grapes indeed!

I would LOVE to see the closet he lives in, and the view of the building 10 meters away.

(See my previous posting for the "dump" I live in.) 555!

Have a great day and weekend in LOS !!!

Hong Kong is cheaper and better than Bangkok .. god, i am weeping with laughter !

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Should be +40$$$ to the USD. I Can't believe a dump is so expensive to live in. I'll keep staying in Hong Kong, for this year at least.

Well it isn't particularly cheap there either is it.

I can afford a cat to swing here, and get room to do so.

Horribly overcrowded place HK.

No worries my friend, no one with any working knowledge of Bangkok verses Hong Kong could possibly write this tripe.

I smell a whine made for very sour grapes indeed!

I don't live in Bangkok either, you should do some research.

So are you claiming Hong Kong is cheaper and less crowded than Bangkok or just posting for your own benefit?

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