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Baht weakening has sapped Thailand’s foreign reserves


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Baht weakening has sapped Thailand’s foreign reserves

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BANGKOK: -- The recent weakening of Thai baht has reduced Thailand’s foreign reserves by US$ 1.5 billion or 52.3 billion baht to US$ 157.3 billion or 5.376 trillion baht against US dollars as of July 17, according to the Bank of Thailand.

The foreign reserves cutback was based on the calculation of the exchange rate of 34.84 baht per dollar. Just one week earlier, foreign reserves stood at US$158.8 billion or 5.39 trillion baht.

Forward position was kept at US$ 19.5 billion compared to last week’s US$19.3 billion resulting to the reduction of net foreign reserves to US$176.8 billion.

Financial market analysts of commercial banks attributed the drop in foreign reserves to steady weakening of the baht against US dollars. They predicted that the baht would continue to weaken but it should not be a matter of serious concern because Thailand’s foreign reserves are at high level and are sufficient to maintain economic stability.

Source :http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/baht-weakening-has-sapped-thailands-foreign-reserves

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-- Thai PBS 2015-07-24

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I'd like to see more information on that. I don't understand it.

Thailand, as most countries hold foreign reserves so it can engage in international trade. Much of that is in USD because that's the international unit of trade. Few will pay in or accept THB for purchases or sales. (China holds a bunch of USD for the same reason and holds them in the form of US treasuries leading some to the mistaken idea that "The US owes China money".)

OK, Thailand has been holding about $USD150 billion in US treasuries. That we've known all along. What I can't figure out is how the increase in the value of the dollar has eroded Thailand's position in those US treasuries which are denominated in USD. That seems like a money maker to me, and at the least a wash. ??

Someone - anyone - LOL. ??

The only thing I can think of that Thailand means is that it costs more in baht to buy USD treasuries and so they are holding less USD. I still wonder how, if they've been holding USD all along, it isn't a wash as the bonds mature and are replaced - all in USD.

Anyone know? ??

Cheers

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I'd like to see more information on that. I don't understand it.

Thailand, as most countries hold foreign reserves so it can engage in international trade. Much of that is in USD because that's the international unit of trade. Few will pay in or accept THB for purchases or sales. (China holds a bunch of USD for the same reason and holds them in the form of US treasuries leading some to the mistaken idea that "The US owes China money".)

OK, Thailand has been holding about $USD150 billion in US treasuries. That we've known all along. What I can't figure out is how the increase in the value of the dollar has eroded Thailand's position in those US treasuries which are denominated in USD. That seems like a money maker to me, and at the least a wash. ??

Someone - anyone - LOL. ??

The only thing I can think of that Thailand means is that it costs more in baht to buy USD treasuries and so they are holding less USD. I still wonder how, if they've been holding USD all along, it isn't a wash as the bonds mature and are replaced - all in USD.

Anyone know? ??

Cheers

Where did you get that figure from?

Thailand likely have a significant amount - say 30% to 40% - in other currencies which have also depreciated against the USD. So when measured in USD terms the amount will have fallen. And $1.5 bln is only 1%, many currencies have fallen by 2% to 3 %. against the dollar recently. Also they do have some reserves in gold bullion which isn't helping.

That's the logical reason, but the headline implies the central bank have been using their FX reserves to support the baht. Perhaps the journalist just did a cut and paste of an old story and forget to change the headline?

Edited by Time Traveller
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I'd like to see more information on that. I don't understand it.

Thailand, as most countries hold foreign reserves so it can engage in international trade. Much of that is in USD because that's the international unit of trade. Few will pay in or accept THB for purchases or sales. (China holds a bunch of USD for the same reason and holds them in the form of US treasuries leading some to the mistaken idea that "The US owes China money".)

OK, Thailand has been holding about $USD150 billion in US treasuries. That we've known all along. What I can't figure out is how the increase in the value of the dollar has eroded Thailand's position in those US treasuries which are denominated in USD. That seems like a money maker to me, and at the least a wash. ??

Someone - anyone - LOL. ??

The only thing I can think of that Thailand means is that it costs more in baht to buy USD treasuries and so they are holding less USD. I still wonder how, if they've been holding USD all along, it isn't a wash as the bonds mature and are replaced - all in USD.

Anyone know? ??

Cheers

Where did you get that figure from?

Thailand likely have a significant amount - say 30% to 40% - in other currencies which have also depreciated against the USD. So when measured in USD terms the amount will have fallen. And $1.5 bln is only 1%, many currencies have fallen by 2% to 3 %. against the dollar recently. Also they do have some reserves in gold bullion which isn't helping.

That's the logical reason, but the headline implies the central bank have been using their FX reserves to support the baht. Perhaps the journalist just did a cut and paste of an old story and forget to change the headline?

I hear you. The bulk of it has always been in USD which have appreciated.

There must be something they aren't saying because the total is about $USD150 bil.

Oh well, I'll see what I can find to read.

Cheers.

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I think the drain on USD reserves happens because businesses that do transactions in dollars need more dollars than formerly because the baht is weaker. So, they buy the additional USD from the BOT. The last time I looked some time ago, the BOT's USD reserves were around $200 billion. So, the decline of the baht over the last few years has already caused significant erosion. It's not because the the BOT is trying to support the baht. Just the opposite is the case. Pridyathorn has publicly stated recently that they want to weaken the baht to support exports, although this might just be a case of Pridyathorn putting the best face on a situation that is out of his control.

Thailand's high level of USD reserves is the result of a policy change that arose after the Tom Yum Goong crisis of 1997, when a flight of foreign capital (the famous "hot ball of money") from Thailand caused, among other effects, all of the major Thai banks to be unable to repay their dollar loans, because they didn't have enough dollars. The banks were forced to sell 49% ownership shares to US banks at firesale prices to avoid going bankrupt. Following the crisis, Thailand and other Asian countries in particular, resolved to avoid a similar crunch in the future by maintaining high dollar reserves. China maintains high reserves, but for different reasons. The downside of the high dollar reserve policy of Thailand and the other countries is that a large chunk of wealth is tied up in useless currency and US Treasury bonds that could be invested in developing the country. A side effect of the maintenance of high dollar reserves is to keep the USD at a high level, which, while it may be desirable for us expats, has a harmful effect on the US economy, in particular, on manufacturing for export.

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You could also say the 800,000 I have in bank for retirement visa also was "sapped" although no money has gone anywhere. Maybe I can get government bailout for hardship?

Be positive, someone who did not quite have enough income in $ or £ to qualify in baht for an extension based on retirement ,may now qualify.

Edited by jacko45k
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I think currency reserves are not the only factor that determine exchange rates. Other factors are economic policy and the strenght/growth of the economy. The lack of rain (i.e. less income for farmers) can affect the value of the baht vs other currencies.

Moreover, the rising dollar is often explained as a "flight to safety" in uncertain times. This affects most other currencies. The euro is expected to reach parity with the dollar in the near future...

I'd like to see more information on that. I don't understand it.

Thailand, as most countries hold foreign reserves so it can engage in international trade. Much of that is in USD because that's the international unit of trade. Few will pay in or accept THB for purchases or sales. (China holds a bunch of USD for the same reason and holds them in the form of US treasuries leading some to the mistaken idea that "The US owes China money".)

OK, Thailand has been holding about $USD150 billion in US treasuries. That we've known all along. What I can't figure out is how the increase in the value of the dollar has eroded Thailand's position in those US treasuries which are denominated in USD. That seems like a money maker to me, and at the least a wash. ??

Someone - anyone - LOL. ??

The only thing I can think of that Thailand means is that it costs more in baht to buy USD treasuries and so they are holding less USD. I still wonder how, if they've been holding USD all along, it isn't a wash as the bonds mature and are replaced - all in USD.

Anyone know? ??

Cheers

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I think currency reserves are not the only factor that determine exchange rates. Other factors are economic policy and the strenght/growth of the economy. The lack of rain (i.e. less income for farmers) can affect the value of the baht vs other currencies.

Moreover, the rising dollar is often explained as a "flight to safety" in uncertain times. This affects most other currencies. The euro is expected to reach parity with the dollar in the near future.

We're just talking about Thailand's foreign exchange reserves (I think, LOL.) It holds most of those reserves in USD. The OP says "BANGKOK: -- The recent weakening of Thai baht has reduced Thailand’s foreign reserves by US$ 1.5 billion or 52.3 billion baht to US$ 157.3 billion or 5.376 trillion baht against US dollars."

That doesn't make sense to me. I realize they are stating everything in USD no matter what it is, but I simply don't understand how the value of other major currencies could have dropped enough to offset the value of holdings in USD, Pound Sterling, Yuan...

The bulk of Thailand's foreign reserves have long been in the form of US treasuries denominated in USD. I just don't know how that value went away in either dollars or the baht they could be converted to. ??

Cheers.

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I think currency reserves are not the only factor that determine exchange rates. Other factors are economic policy and the strenght/growth of the economy. The lack of rain (i.e. less income for farmers) can affect the value of the baht vs other currencies.

Moreover, the rising dollar is often explained as a "flight to safety" in uncertain times. This affects most other currencies. The euro is expected to reach parity with the dollar in the near future.

We're just talking about Thailand's foreign exchange reserves (I think, LOL.) It holds most of those reserves in USD. The OP says "BANGKOK: -- The recent weakening of Thai baht has reduced Thailand’s foreign reserves by US$ 1.5 billion or 52.3 billion baht to US$ 157.3 billion or 5.376 trillion baht against US dollars."

That doesn't make sense to me. I realize they are stating everything in USD no matter what it is, but I simply don't understand how the value of other major currencies could have dropped enough to offset the value of holdings in USD, Pound Sterling, Yuan...

The bulk of Thailand's foreign reserves have long been in the form of US treasuries denominated in USD. I just don't know how that value went away in either dollars or the baht they could be converted to. ??

Cheers.

I just explained it to you. The value of the dollars in dollars obviously did not drop. The quantity of dollars did drop. I speculated as to why that quantity went down, but the fact is that it was the quantity that dropped, not the value.

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I am no expert, but just a guess: the weakening baht has made imports more expensive, forcing Thailand to "dip into" in dollar piggy bank.

Another reasons why foreign (dollar) reserves drop is when central banks sells dollars to prop up their own currency. But I have not heard about Thailand trying to do so recently.

I think currency reserves are not the only factor that determine exchange rates. Other factors are economic policy and the strenght/growth of the economy. The lack of rain (i.e. less income for farmers) can affect the value of the baht vs other currencies.

Moreover, the rising dollar is often explained as a "flight to safety" in uncertain times. This affects most other currencies. The euro is expected to reach parity with the dollar in the near future.

We're just talking about Thailand's foreign exchange reserves (I think, LOL.) It holds most of those reserves in USD. The OP says "BANGKOK: -- The recent weakening of Thai baht has reduced Thailand’s foreign reserves by US$ 1.5 billion or 52.3 billion baht to US$ 157.3 billion or 5.376 trillion baht against US dollars."

That doesn't make sense to me. I realize they are stating everything in USD no matter what it is, but I simply don't understand how the value of other major currencies could have dropped enough to offset the value of holdings in USD, Pound Sterling, Yuan...

The bulk of Thailand's foreign reserves have long been in the form of US treasuries denominated in USD. I just don't know how that value went away in either dollars or the baht they could be converted to. ??

Cheers.

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The Junta since last year has been promoting Thailand shift to BRIC currencies in lieu of USD as the new world currency standard. It went so far as to make several economic deals with China that enables China to use yuan in trade with Thailand, including the Thai stock market.

I wonder if BOT followed the Junta's guidance.

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I think currency reserves are not the only factor that determine exchange rates. Other factors are economic policy and the strenght/growth of the economy. The lack of rain (i.e. less income for farmers) can affect the value of the baht vs other currencies.

Moreover, the rising dollar is often explained as a "flight to safety" in uncertain times. This affects most other currencies. The euro is expected to reach parity with the dollar in the near future.

We're just talking about Thailand's foreign exchange reserves (I think, LOL.) It holds most of those reserves in USD. The OP says "BANGKOK: -- The recent weakening of Thai baht has reduced Thailand’s foreign reserves by US$ 1.5 billion or 52.3 billion baht to US$ 157.3 billion or 5.376 trillion baht against US dollars."

That doesn't make sense to me. I realize they are stating everything in USD no matter what it is, but I simply don't understand how the value of other major currencies could have dropped enough to offset the value of holdings in USD, Pound Sterling, Yuan...

The bulk of Thailand's foreign reserves have long been in the form of US treasuries denominated in USD. I just don't know how that value went away in either dollars or the baht they could be converted to. ??

Cheers.

I just explained it to you. The value of the dollars in dollars obviously did not drop. The quantity of dollars did drop. I speculated as to why that quantity went down, but the fact is that it was the quantity that dropped, not the value.

I think the OP is talking crap read it carefully the dollar value is reduced because of the stupid news reporting the USD is always held in USD but the article uses the THB as the amount divided by the higher USD/THB therefore resulting in less USD

"The foreign reserves cutback was based on the calculation of the exchange rate of 34.84 baht per dollar. Just one week earlier, foreign reserves stood at US$158.8 billion or 5.39 trillion baht."

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I think currency reserves are not the only factor that determine exchange rates. Other factors are economic policy and the strenght/growth of the economy. The lack of rain (i.e. less income for farmers) can affect the value of the baht vs other currencies.

Moreover, the rising dollar is often explained as a "flight to safety" in uncertain times. This affects most other currencies. The euro is expected to reach parity with the dollar in the near future.

We're just talking about Thailand's foreign exchange reserves (I think, LOL.) It holds most of those reserves in USD. The OP says "BANGKOK: -- The recent weakening of Thai baht has reduced Thailand’s foreign reserves by US$ 1.5 billion or 52.3 billion baht to US$ 157.3 billion or 5.376 trillion baht against US dollars."

That doesn't make sense to me. I realize they are stating everything in USD no matter what it is, but I simply don't understand how the value of other major currencies could have dropped enough to offset the value of holdings in USD, Pound Sterling, Yuan...

The bulk of Thailand's foreign reserves have long been in the form of US treasuries denominated in USD. I just don't know how that value went away in either dollars or the baht they could be converted to. ??

Cheers.

I just explained it to you. The value of the dollars in dollars obviously did not drop. The quantity of dollars did drop. I speculated as to why that quantity went down, but the fact is that it was the quantity that dropped, not the value.

I think the OP is talking crap read it carefully the dollar value is reduced because of the stupid news reporting the USD is always held in USD but the article uses the THB as the amount divided by the higher USD/THB therefore resulting in less USD

"The foreign reserves cutback was based on the calculation of the exchange rate of 34.84 baht per dollar. Just one week earlier, foreign reserves stood at US$158.8 billion or 5.39 trillion baht."

Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/foreign-exchange-reserves

Edited by Scott
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The Junta since last year has been promoting Thailand shift to BRIC currencies in lieu of USD as the new world currency standard. It went so far as to make several economic deals with China that enables China to use yuan in trade with Thailand, including the Thai stock market.

I wonder if BOT followed the Junta's guidance.

BRIC currencies? Great idea - Thailand can really rely on the Russian ruble, South African rand, Indian rupee and Brazilian real.... Or did you just mean the Chinese yuan?

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We're just talking about Thailand's foreign exchange reserves (I think, LOL.) It holds most of those reserves in USD. The OP says "BANGKOK: -- The recent weakening of Thai baht has reduced Thailand’s foreign reserves by US$ 1.5 billion or 52.3 billion baht to US$ 157.3 billion or 5.376 trillion baht against US dollars."

That doesn't make sense to me. I realize they are stating everything in USD no matter what it is, but I simply don't understand how the value of other major currencies could have dropped enough to offset the value of holdings in USD, Pound Sterling, Yuan...

The bulk of Thailand's foreign reserves have long been in the form of US treasuries denominated in USD. I just don't know how that value went away in either dollars or the baht they could be converted to. ??

Cheers.

I just explained it to you. The value of the dollars in dollars obviously did not drop. The quantity of dollars did drop. I speculated as to why that quantity went down, but the fact is that it was the quantity that dropped, not the value.

I think the OP is talking crap read it carefully the dollar value is reduced because of the stupid news reporting the USD is always held in USD but the article uses the THB as the amount divided by the higher USD/THB therefore resulting in less USD

"The foreign reserves cutback was based on the calculation of the exchange rate of 34.84 baht per dollar. Just one week earlier, foreign reserves stood at US$158.8 billion or 5.39 trillion baht."

Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/foreign-exchange-reserves

Horses mouth is a better place:

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=80&language=ENG

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I'd like to see more information on that. I don't understand it.

Thailand, as most countries hold foreign reserves so it can engage in international trade. Much of that is in USD because that's the international unit of trade. Few will pay in or accept THB for purchases or sales. (China holds a bunch of USD for the same reason and holds them in the form of US treasuries leading some to the mistaken idea that "The US owes China money".)

OK, Thailand has been holding about $USD150 billion in US treasuries. That we've known all along. What I can't figure out is how the increase in the value of the dollar has eroded Thailand's position in those US treasuries which are denominated in USD. That seems like a money maker to me, and at the least a wash. ??

Someone - anyone - LOL. ??

The only thing I can think of that Thailand means is that it costs more in baht to buy USD treasuries and so they are holding less USD. I still wonder how, if they've been holding USD all along, it isn't a wash as the bonds mature and are replaced - all in USD.

Anyone know? ??

Cheers

Where did you get that figure from?

Thailand likely have a significant amount - say 30% to 40% - in other currencies which have also depreciated against the USD. So when measured in USD terms the amount will have fallen. And $1.5 bln is only 1%, many currencies have fallen by 2% to 3 %. against the dollar recently. Also they do have some reserves in gold bullion which isn't helping.

That's the logical reason, but the headline implies the central bank have been using their FX reserves to support the baht. Perhaps the journalist just did a cut and paste of an old story and forget to change the headline?

What the headline is implying is that the lower value of the Baht has caused the foreign reserves to decrease, which is incorrect. Thailand holds different currencies in reserve including gold. Most of these currencies have depreciated in value against the USD and this have caused the decrease in the foreign reserves.

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THE DOLLAR IS DYING, and the only people that don't want to accept this are the Americans and thier Government, many of the traditional trades that were in dollars ,(be it oil or other commodities) have switched to their own or the sellers currencies. Nixon decided to take the dollar out of the restrictions that gold placed on his ability to wage war in Viet Nam. And it was decided at the time ,that the new world currency would be the dollar. (Bretton Wood Agreement)

There are several problems with that ,no 1 being the Federal Reserve which has share holders and is a Private Entity, seperate from the rest of the financial institutions, and the merry go round between the Fed ,Treasury and the Banks is a total Con trick, because they can print millions of bits of worthless paper (dollars) without anything to back it up. The Gov . issues a bond , the big Banks bid for the bond , they take the bond to the Fed , and the Fed writes a cheque for that amount with a cheque book account that has no money in it ,zero zilch, A criminal offence for you or me. , Then -Hey Presto -Abbra codabbra -- Money miraculously rolls off the banks printing presses .

This is not just the dollar , the World has followed , And they are heading up a g©reek with no paddle !!!

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The Thai Baht has not gone down on the Aussie dollar,so its crap,last July we got 30 Thai Baht for a Aussie dollar Today we get 25 Thai Baht for a Aussie dollar,So you smart ones in my bank account that means Thai baht has gone UP .I don't use the USA Dollars I get paid Aussie Dollars. wai2.gif

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I think the drain on USD reserves happens because businesses that do transactions in dollars need more dollars than formerly because the baht is weaker. So, they buy the additional USD from the BOT. The last time I looked some time ago, the BOT's USD reserves were around $200 billion. So, the decline of the baht over the last few years has already caused significant erosion. It's not because the the BOT is trying to support the baht. Just the opposite is the case. Pridyathorn has publicly stated recently that they want to weaken the baht to support exports, although this might just be a case of Pridyathorn putting the best face on a situation that is out of his control.

Thailand's high level of USD reserves is the result of a policy change that arose after the Tom Yum Goong crisis of 1997, when a flight of foreign capital (the famous "hot ball of money") from Thailand caused, among other effects, all of the major Thai banks to be unable to repay their dollar loans, because they didn't have enough dollars. The banks were forced to sell 49% ownership shares to US banks at firesale prices to avoid going bankrupt. Following the crisis, Thailand and other Asian countries in particular, resolved to avoid a similar crunch in the future by maintaining high dollar reserves. China maintains high reserves, but for different reasons. The downside of the high dollar reserve policy of Thailand and the other countries is that a large chunk of wealth is tied up in useless currency and US Treasury bonds that could be invested in developing the country. A side effect of the maintenance of high dollar reserves is to keep the USD at a high level, which, while it may be desirable for us expats, has a harmful effect on the US economy, in particular, on manufacturing for export.

Let's all hope they don't engage in the lunacy of selling USD to buy Baht. That strategy did not end well in 1997 ( other than for George Soros).

The govt should view this weakening as a positive thing ( and in any event the depreciation is not all that great relative to other currencies )

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