Drought to drag on for six months, say experts
Pratch Rujivanarom
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- THE DEVASTATING drought currently affecting Thailand could drag on until the middle of next year due to what experts are calling the mother of all El Ninos.

"The effects of El Nino will become stronger and last until next February, which means lower precipitation than what Thailand usually gets from the Pacific Ocean," said Chawalit Chantararat, managing director of Team Group.

El Nino was to blame for the sparse rainfall in the first half of this year's rainy season, he said.

"El Nino is disrupting storm patterns in the Pacific Ocean, so this year we will see fewer storms in the region, which decreases the rainfall that we get. And if this continues, we'll have to bear with the drought until the next rainy season," he said.

Dusadee Sukawat, a meteorology researcher at King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, said that due to the severe El Nino event, which will extend into next year, there is a 80-per-cent likelihood of a shortage of rain in Asia and Australia and it will definitely upset the rain pattern in Thailand.

"Even if we get average rain during the last two months of the rainy season in August and September, it will not help fill up the nearly empty dams. This situation will not get better, unless there are some storms heading toward us," he said.

"There is a very high possibility that the drought will linger until the next rainy season - next June - and it will become more severe when the dry season comes," he said.

Maytee Mahayosanata, director of the Meteorological Department's Central Weather Forecasting Division, said the rainfall between July and September is expected to be about normal.

The water-shortage problem was not all about rainfall, he said.

Increasing consumption was one of the major factors behind the drought. For example, in 1997, the precipitation was the same as this year, but then there was no water shortage because what was used was lower than today, he said.

Thongplew Kongjun director of the Irrigation Department's Water Management and Hydrology Office, said the department had started dredging waterways and ponds to store 295 million cubic metres of water within the Chao Phraya River basin. The work was 85 per cent complete. However, to make the best use of the limited water supply, everyone should save water. There will also be a change in planting.

"The paddy fields in the Chao Phraya basin have used seven billion cubic metres of water for five harvest seasons during these last two years. If we reduce crops to two per year, we can save 2.3-billion cubic metres per year," he said. Besides the urgent change of next year's plan for agriculture, people in the city also have to use water wisely to conserve the scarce resource, he said.

"People in Greater Bangkok draw five million cubic metres of water from the tap per day. If every household uses 20 per cent less water, we can save one million cubic metres per day, which can be allocated to 40,000 rai of farmland," he said.

The next rice planting should be reduced to 150,000 rai of land, while farm management should be strictly enforced to avoid a water famine.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Drought-to-drag-on-for-six-months-say-experts-30265275.html


-- The Nation 2015-07-27

35 kms north of Kanchanaburi and only one downpour in the last 8 weeks. Definitely a dry rainy season so far.

Sorry but droughts and monsoons are nothing new to this region. I know it is difficult but with large scale national planning, droughts can be managed better, floods can be managed better. Thailand has been massively deforested in the last few decades. This really hurts when the rains come as there is less and less buffering of the extra water going on. Droughts can be managed better with irrigation, dam and reservoir improvements. But that won't happen. Every year more and more houses are built, more and more people use more and more water. No control or management of anything. The same thing is happening here in the USA, most noted in the Los Angeles and San Diego areas.

Anybody who thinks the recent rain has solved the problem is fooling themselves. As of this morning, of the 6 major storage dams in the north and northeast, only 2 show a very minor increase in level, most have a flattening of the downward trend or are still dropping.

Four days raining without interruption and a huge rain/storm yesterday evening in my village which was an island in the middle of the flood in fury ..( not far from Sawang Daen Din in Sakon Nakhon province )

I didn't bought enough water tanks , ... ;

It stopped about 30 minutes ago;

I will go cycling to see the damage on the roads ...maybe some photos this evening ? ...

"Increasing consumption being one of the major factors"....Think about this before and during SongKran...the most water spilling event ever...

6 months before the end of the drought.....so the drought will be broken during the dry season?

" in 1997, the precipitation was the same as this year, but then there was no water shortage because what was used was lower than today"

So, nearly 20 years ago you saw what could happen with the rainfall, but did not think about the exponential increase in usage through higher population and more crops, and begin serious water management and storage measures?

It's sort of like the minivan drivers...they see the lights turn red ahead, but continue to accelerate.

Water, water everywhere nor any a drop to drink....

For an instant there, I thought they were going to lift the alcohol ban around schools. Wrong Drought.

It has rained up here in the far north just about every day and night for the past 3 weeks, My lawn needs mowing every 4 days . Too humid to do it but it does get done once a week.

The left hand doesn't even know what the left hand is doing here.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/843634-drought-crisis-abates-in-several-parts-of-thailand/

It's been dropping the contents of an olympic sized swimming pool on me almost every day for the last month.

" in 1997, the precipitation was the same as this year, but then there was no water shortage because what was used was lower than today"

So, nearly 20 years ago you saw what could happen with the rainfall, but did not think about the exponential increase in usage through higher population and more crops, and begin serious water management and storage measures?

It's sort of like the minivan drivers...they see the lights turn red ahead, but continue to accelerate.

Only the minivan drivers???? They always seem to get a bad press, I have never had a problem with any

minibus driver, besides, are they worse than the average Thai driver?

Sorry, I have just realised I have went off topic.

What they really mean is that through sheer incompetence and a total lack of foresight, none of them have ever bothered to implement a working mechanism to store the enormous amount of rainfall this country gets every year..... even an El-Nino one.

Most problems experienced by this country could be fixed very easily, however, you can't fix stupid, greed or unfounded arrogance.

Experts....

Sorry but droughts and monsoons are nothing new to this region. I know it is difficult but with large scale national planning, droughts can be managed better, floods can be managed better. Thailand has been massively deforested in the last few decades. This really hurts when the rains come as there is less and less buffering of the extra water going on. Droughts can be managed better with irrigation, dam and reservoir improvements. But that won't happen. Every year more and more houses are built, more and more people use more and more water. No control or management of anything. The same thing is happening here in the USA, most noted in the Los Angeles and San Diego areas.

1997 fast forward almost 20 years and the population has what doubled when you include tourism? but the rainfall is the same as back then. Lesson? You cannot keep expanding forever we are not the universe but a small compact overpopulated little space ship flying around the sun. Said spaceship can only accommodate about half of the present occupants and we have no life rafts. Then you can throw in years of mismanagement, greed, climate change, over working productive lands, pollution, destructive wars, and a real lack of brotherly love. We are no longer our brothers keeper but a keeper of our own personal wealth. I often wonder what 2040 will bring more of the same. Thank God I will not be around then and well I wish good luck to the rest of you. Put on a life vest.

"Increasing consumption being one of the major factors"....Think about this before and during SongKran...the most water spilling event ever...

Forget it they are deaf on this subject. Songkran gives happiness to the people that is the only mantra that counts.

One of the Experts mentioned in the OP says ''less water from the pacific''. As most of us know the rain comes from the Andaman, which is part of the Indian ocean. But then, we are not the experts -----

They'll be throwing sand next year for Songkhran.

As others have noted, wait till Songkran, and you'll think all the dams, rivers and canals are filled to the bursting point.

With a bit of luck the drought will break just in time for the annual flood crisis.

I recall 1997 and it was pretty grim, however I also recall the drought 'broke' with a vengance and the September/October of that year were the wettest I can remember,

And it was only a week or so ago that we were all being reassured by government water "experts" that August would bring the monsoon rains needed to end the drought.

What a b. shambles.

Now there is torrential rain in the north and north east, as there has been for a couple of weeks already. The RID is releasing water for the rice farmers and say they will have plenty of water. The dams are filling, and there are flood warnings in the north. So much for experts !!!