USD:THB where is it headed and why?

[puukao]

Heading to 294.

Seems impossible???!!!

nothing is impossible.

when the dow was at 100....i said it would go to 18,000!!!!! nobody believed me!!!!

[spaceman79]

35.50/35.53 bid ask USD THB.

[Berkshire]

• Yday THB bid/ask was at 35.32/35.37 EOD. Today its 35.47. The bombing has shaken the THB. Yday FIIs were net buyers but today SET fell over 2% touching near 1370 on large volumes. Airport Authority of Thailand is one of the biggest losers. CNY has also been gaining against the THB which should be comforting for Thailand. However this fresh lows by SET could result in further setting THB down. Seems the breaking of 36 will be a self fulfilling prophecy.

"The bombing has shaken the THB...?" Where do you guys come up with these ridiculous explanations? The THB has been weakening against the USD for months now, which probably has more to do with the USD strengthening against pretty much all currencies. And Thailand has just cut interest rates. I hope you're not investing other peoples' money.

[spaceman79]

• Yday THB bid/ask was at 35.32/35.37 EOD. Today its 35.47. The bombing has shaken the THB. Yday FIIs were net buyers but today SET fell over 2% touching near 1370 on large volumes. Airport Authority of Thailand is one of the biggest losers. CNY has also been gaining against the THB which should be comforting for Thailand. However this fresh lows by SET could result in further setting THB down. Seems the breaking of 36 will be a self fulfilling prophecy.

"The bombing has shaken the THB...?" Where do you guys come up with these ridiculous explanations? The THB has been weakening against the USD for months now, which probably has more to do with the USD strengthening against pretty much all currencies. And Thailand has just cut interest rates. I hope you're not investing other peoples' money.

[spaceman79]

Perhaps you should be reading from the beginning of the thread. Btw when was the last rate cut by BOT?

[spaceman79]

Next month the thai baht may be expected to cross 36 and onto 41 against the usd?

[chiang mai]

• Yday THB bid/ask was at 35.32/35.37 EOD. Today its 35.47. The bombing has shaken the THB. Yday FIIs were net buyers but today SET fell over 2% touching near 1370 on large volumes. Airport Authority of Thailand is one of the biggest losers. CNY has also been gaining against the THB which should be comforting for Thailand. However this fresh lows by SET could result in further setting THB down. Seems the breaking of 36 will be a self fulfilling prophecy.

"The bombing has shaken the THB",

Rubbish, the bombing had zero effect on THB value,

[chiang mai]

Next month the thai baht may be expected to cross 36 and onto 41 against the usd?

41!!! You didn't just chance upon your TVF nick. did you!

As for BOT rate cut, last one was in March.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-11/thai-central-bank-unexpectedly-cuts-key-rate-to-support-economy

[spaceman79]

Rubbish created a big candle gap down in the SET of -3% the day after the bombing ... SET looks vulnerable to 1230 and even downwards after that. Charts follow patterns and chart readers dont look for reasons as to what may prompt events to go there. But it so happens Thai economy is showing classic bearishness. THB is down, Thai SET is down, Thai household debt is up. BOT rate cuts take place when previous stimuli fail to vigorate growth. I respect your views, but i hope just being longer here you dont ostracise newer voices. What i am saying is holding true. One month on since my post THB is still more than 2% down against the USD.

• Yday THB bid/ask was at 35.32/35.37 EOD. Today its 35.47. The bombing has shaken the THB. Yday FIIs were net buyers but today SET fell over 2% touching near 1370 on large volumes. Airport Authority of Thailand is one of the biggest losers. CNY has also been gaining against the THB which should be comforting for Thailand. However this fresh lows by SET could result in further setting THB down. Seems the breaking of 36 will be a self fulfilling prophecy.

"The bombing has shaken the THB",

Rubbish, the bombing had zero effect on THB value,

[spaceman79]

2% devaluation of THB against the USD means in dollar terms, someone who is availing THB savings, has a zero rate of return. This can also cause liquidiation of bank deposits, accelerate external flight of capital. a cheaper THB is supposed to spur exports, however so far the data suggest contraction in manufacturing too. Intra regional trade is down, China is down, Thailand's biggest trading partner. Highest casualty from Erawan blast was from China and Hongkong and Chinese are the biggest tourist group by nationality and purchase power in Thailand. Sometimes it helps to look under the rug. Ensures better sleep in the long run!! Cheers!!

[chiang mai]

As I said, zero effect, typical intraday volatility and nothing lasting whatsoever.

[lannarebirth]

Possible ST trend break:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDTHB%3DX+Interactive#{"showEma":true,"emaColors":"#cc0000","emaPeriods":"20","emaWidths":"1","emaGhosting":"0","range":"6mo","allowChartStacking":true}

[stament]

Yes due to fed not raising rates

[lannarebirth]

Yes due to fed not raising rates

If you say so. You know, there's not much difference between 0% and 0,25%. Just sayin'.

[stament]

I meant the last coup,e of days change some would have been built in as the market would have anticipated no rate change but cannot be 100% hence element not built in and confirmation of no rise no doubt contributed to a decline.

[lannarebirth]

I meant the last coup,e of days change some would have been built in as the market would have anticipated no rate change but cannot be 100% hence element not built in and confirmation of no rise no doubt contributed to a decline.

You may very well be right, but in my world, with regards to money, the what is more important than the why.

[circusman]

My over generalized Answer:

When a central bank increases its central rate the value of its currency goes up (and vice versa)

Since Fed Chair Janet Yellen is on record as saying Fed rates will increase this year (possibility at Sept Fed meeting or November) from the current 0% rate the FX trade is now reflecting this in the anticipated of the hike in September.

The reason why specifically EM's like Thailand suffer is that currency will normally flow away from most EM currencies and into the developed markets that is hiking their central bank rate - In this case it is the USD.

In short it is a simple supply and demand effect on the THB - There are more sellers than buying for THB and more buyers than sellers for the USD (within the USD/THB currency pair)

for more detail watch this video since it describes the effect on equities and Bonds as well as FX - On EM's

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000401850

I see this as a game of pea and thimble, or poker bluffing. Every time the Fed chair opens her mouth and hints at an interest rate rise " in the near future " , the US dollar as a reserve currency strengthens against most other currencies. I'll believe it when I see it happen. There is no evidence the American economy is so healthy it can sustain an interest rate rise without going into recession.

Consider the following: The USA has a debt of 17 trillion dollars, or 40 - 50 trillion if you want to count in unfunded liabilities of pensions and Medicare. Defence expenditure is ruinously expensive. Shale fracking is a Red Queen's race with the Saudis, and the Saudis will win because the depletion rates on their wells are a fraction of the capital requirements of new shale wells.

So to me, it's all smoke and mirrors, which is why I'm buying gold.

I bought gold a year ago and lost money now. Rubbish.

[Berkshire]

Yes due to fed not raising rates

If you say so. You know, there's not much difference between 0% and 0,25%. Just sayin'.

That little 25 basis points means a lot. One of the reasons that the feds didn't raise rates (per financial dudes in the know) was because of widespread weakness in international economies, including the EU and China. If the feds had raise rates, US exports would have taken a hit as the dollar rising would increase the cost of US goods in the world market. The US stock market would also have taken a hit and it's been rather volatile lately.

My guess is that the feds raising rates was already baked in the THB/US$ exchange rate and when the feds didn't raise, the THB strengthened as a result. But it should stabilize as the US$ is pretty solid right now.

[morrobay]

Well that maybe so ^. But the money supply should not be used as a macroeconomic tool for fundamental economic policy.These 0 % are a distortion and detriment to economic health. Are there not other ways to make exports more competitive devaluation. ? Like infrastructure and manufacturing upgrades. And regarding emerging market weakness : Blame the Saps who used the QE's for

sugar kool aid speculation in emerging markets assets instead of investment in U.S. infrastructure. I could care less about their portfolios .

Edited September 23, 2015 by morrobay

[Berkshire]

Well that maybe so ^. But the money supply should not be used as a macroeconomic tool for fundamental economic policy.These 0 % are a distortion and detriment to economic health. Are there not other ways to make exports more competitive devaluation. ? Like infrastructure and manufacturing upgrades. And regarding emerging market weakness : Blame the Saps who used the QE's for

sugar kool aid speculation in emerging markets assets instead of investment in U.S. infrastructure. I could care less about their portfolios .

I actually agree with you that the feds should raise rates. Money has been cheap for too long. But there were other issues at play, not just the strong dollar. I just gave one reason but typically, the feds would raise rates to cool down an overheating economy and control inflation. I haven't read/listened to Yellen's full explanation, so can't really discuss her rationale, other than to share what everyone else in the financial markets are saying.

[stament]

There was a thread on here a while back with the title will it hit 35? Well now the question is when will it hit 37? Read experts say should get to 36.75 by year end but we seem to be progressing rather more quickly towards that. xe.com. now 36.62 with high of 36.64

[IMA_FARANG]

If we could all know the answer to that question, we My self I am here in Bangkok on a fixed dollar pension.

Since January 2015 I have been watching that pension being deposited in a Thai bank increasing every month in Baht terms.

I am old enough to do a retirement here in Thailand, but I need the equivalent of 65,000 Baht income monthly to meet the financial requirement for retirement here.

That works out to a Baht dollar exchange rate of about 37.5 Baht to a dollar.

Not sure if that will happen by the end of 2015 or not.

I believe the Thai Baht is bound to keep declining.

Looking at the Thai export figures, I see further declines in the Baht.

So much here in Asia is controlled by the Chinese demand and the Chinese economy growth is definitely slowing down.

The Chinese are definitely using all the resources they can to prop up their economy.

Bottom line, for my case, I just don't know if the Baht will decline enough to make thea magic 37.5 Baht o a dollar rate that I need to see

I'll just have to wait and see if it happens.

[SunLover2]

Bottom line, for my case, I just don't know if the Baht will decline enough to make thea magic 37.5 Baht o a dollar rate that I need to see

I'll just have to wait and see if it happens.

We might see 37.50 baht to the USD sometime soon, but that does not mean it will stay at or above that level for any length of time. Better to have 800k baht in the bank to avoid living at the whims of the forex markets.

SL

[chiang mai]

There was a thread on here a while back with the title will it hit 35? Well now the question is when will it hit 37? Read experts say should get to 36.75 by year end but we seem to be progressing rather more quickly towards that. xe.com. now 36.62 with high of 36.64

36.41 in Thailand, if you want to actually buy it rather than read about it. And the jobless figures that just came in were poor, pundits expect no rate rise this year and for USD to weaken accordingly.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

[CMguy]

There was a thread on here a while back with the title will it hit 35? Well now the question is when will it hit 37? Read experts say should get to 36.75 by year end but we seem to be progressing rather more quickly towards that. xe.com. now 36.62 with high of 36.64

36.41 in Thailand, if you want to actually buy it rather than read about it. And the jobless figures that just came in were poor, pundits expect no rate rise this year and for USD to weaken accordingly.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

142k jobs created in September is not really poor, just lower than expectations.....I still anticipate more usd dollar strength vs baht this year, although next week may well drop a few satang per usd. Then start moving up slowly until the fed raises rates possibly in Dec( most likely early 2016) then dollar gains should move a bit faster.

Maybe some of those pundits can show me some pretty charts or polls, but I am long usd vs emerging market both currency and stocks for now....putting my money where my mouth is, so to speak.

Edited October 3, 2015 by CMguy

[chiang mai]

There was a thread on here a while back with the title will it hit 35? Well now the question is when will it hit 37? Read experts say should get to 36.75 by year end but we seem to be progressing rather more quickly towards that. xe.com. now 36.62 with high of 36.64

36.41 in Thailand, if you want to actually buy it rather than read about it. And the jobless figures that just came in were poor, pundits expect no rate rise this year and for USD to weaken accordingly.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

142k jobs created in September is not really poor, just lower than expectations.....I still anticipate more usd dollar strength vs baht this year, although next week may well drop a few satang per usd. Then start moving up slowly until the fed raises rates possibly in Dec( most likely early 2016) then dollar gains should move a bit faster.

Maybe some of those pundits can show me some pretty charts or polls, but I am long usd vs emerging market both currency and stocks for now....putting my money where my mouth is, so to speak.

Apologies, they said "dreadful" not "poor".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11907037/Dreadful-growth-in-US-jobs-pushes-back-hopes-of-an-interest-rate-rise.html

Edited October 3, 2015 by chiang mai

[CMguy]

At least they did not say terrible, frightful or grim.....because that would have been awful.

[Berkshire]

Odd that the USD is taking a nosedive against the THB today. Wonder what's happening....

[TheCruncher]

Odd that the USD is taking a nosedive against the THB today. Wonder what's happening....

Baht getting stronger against all major currencies today. Wonder where the support comes from.

[Naam]

Odd that the USD is taking a nosedive against the THB today. Wonder what's happening....

Baht getting stronger against all major currencies today. Wonder where the support comes from.

all Asian (and a bunch of other) currencies are strengthening vs. USD.