An ominous silence among insurgents in the deep South

[webfact]

An ominous silence among insurgents in the deep South
Don Pathan
Special to The Nation

Forensic experts inspect the site where soldiers were attacked by suspected Muslim militants at Yaha district in the troubled southern province of Yala, Thailand, July 31, 2015. Seventeen soldiers were injured. REUTERS/Surapan Boonthanom

Refusal to disavow involvement in the Erawan Shrine bombing prompts concern that separatists could extend theatre of violence outside the region

BANGKOK: -- It was supposed to be a press conference at which members of the MARA Patani, a forum of longstanding separatist groups, emerged in public in order to enhance their bargaining power with the Thai government.

But in the end, it was something that the panellists refused to say that wrenched the nerves of Thai security officials.

The question was whether the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) had informed the Thai government that its organisation was not behind the August 17 bombing in Bangkok that killed 20 people injured over 100.

In spite of its silence, hardly anyone believes the BRN was behind the bombing, as the Bangkok attack was outside the separatist insurgents' traditional theatre of violence, namely the historically contested Malay-speaking southernmost provinces.

However, this doesn't mean that the BRN has never carried out an attack on the scale of the Erawan Shrine bombing. But the BRN will push the violence only up to a point, long-time observers within the Thai security community say. It cannot afford to lose its moral high ground or jeopardise its grass-roots support, they add.

In the early stages of the current wave of insurgency violence, which surfaced in 2001 and went into full swing in January 2004, combatants did push the limits too far, murdering public school teachers and Buddhist monks as well as mutilating corpses of soldiers killed in their attacks. If insurgency is a form of communicative action, then the audience at the time was mainly local communities, as well as military commanders who would naturally be demoralised to see their soldiers decapitated or castrated.

But the insurgents consistently gauged local community sentiment and adjusted their focus accordingly, away from "soft targets" and towards the military and police.

Although there are direct attacks against civilians once in while, these acts are understood to be tit-for-tat killings between the state and the insurgents. One example is the murders of three Buddhist women who were shot at close range in February 2014, their bodies then set on fire. The incident was apparently retaliation for the murder of three young boys in Pattani's Bacho district, reportedly carried out by two paramilitary rangers, who retracted their confession in court a year later.

The vast majority of insurgent attacks come in the form of ambush and roadside bombings against security force patrols, essentially aimed at discrediting the security apparatus.

In May, for example, the city of Yala was rocked by almost 40 explosions in a bombing spree that lasted three successive days. Security planners were left speechless when their hastily implemented measures failed to stop the bombing.

For the record, according to BRN sources, no shrapnel was used in the bombs and only a handful of people suffered injuries, which were minor.

Even when BRN combatants have attacked targets outside the region, like Hat Yai, Phuket and Samui, achieving a high body count has never been part of the plan.

In one such incident, for example, a pick-up truck bomb with a blast radius of 500 metres was parked at the Phuket Police Station on December 2013. BRN sources said the operative left the bomb switch off on purpose, choosing merely to demonstrate their capabilities, as well as their disapproval at the absence of rules of engagement among government troops.

The same operation also saw Songkhla's Sadao district come under simultaneous bomb attacks, fulfilling a vow made earlier by insurgents.

While the Sadao attacks demonstrated the BRN could live up to its word, the Samui attack in May this year was a stern warning against the flouting of rules of engagement and against a so-called peace process in which the separatist organisation's name was being used without their approval and their people harassed to come on board.

BRN sources said the groups' ruling council did not endorse the peace initiative begun under Thaksin Shinawatra's administration and continued under his sister Yingluck's rule, or the current "pre-talks" with MARA Patani aimed at reviving negotiations.

With no genuine channel of communication between the BRN and Bangkok, Thai authorities have rushed to rule out any connection with the southern insurgency whenever a fresh incident occurs - whether it be the explosives left at a Bangkok street corner in May 2013, the Phuket Police Station truck bomb in December 2013 or the Samui car bomb in April this year.

The only exception was the December 31, 2006 New Year bombings in which three people were killed and 40 injured.

A lengthy investigation implicated the insurgents, yet the military-installed government downplayed the findings and instead suggested it was the work of people who had been ousted from power, ie, the Thaksin camp.

Too often, the authorities' knee-jerk reaction has come back to haunt them when evidence emerges to undermine their claims. It was subsequently revealed that vehicles used to ferry the Phuket and Samui bombs were from Pattani and Yala. Meanwhile the culprits behind the May 2013 Bangkok bombing were said to be part of an organisation seeking to force its way into the Yingluck peace initiative. The irony was not lost on observers.

Although moral high ground is important, it doesn't mean that the BRN would never carry out an attack in the deep South of the size and scale of the Ratchaprasong bombing.

Take, for example, the triple car bombs on Yala's Ruammit Street that killed 14 people and injured about 120 in late March 2012. The attacks were in response to an overture made two weeks earlier by Thaksin Shinawatra towards the 16 leaders of various separatist organisations in a bid to have them join the peace process.

The absence of any attacks on this scale outside the region is another indication that the BRN realises that Bangkok and the international community would not tolerate such a broadening of the theatre of violence.

Failing to heed the warning sent by the Yala attack, the Yingluck government pressed on with the relaunch of peace talks a year later on February 28, 2013.

Today, MARA Patani is a manifestation of that half-baked peace initiative launched under Yingluck's watch, with the junta uncertain of what else to do except to go with the flow. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha must know he cannot afford the publicity disaster that would ensue if he was to ditch the initiative.

Back when the Yingluck initiative was in the pipeline, MARA Patani was treated as a side-show, often referred to as "Track 1.5".

The Ruammit triple car bomb shows that the BRN is willing to use a body count to make a point. The incident received significant media coverage, partly because the scale of the tragedy and partly because of the fact that Hat Yai was also hit. But it quickly became yesterday's news. The prevailing attitude among the Thai public and policymakers is that, as long as the violence is confined to the deep South, people will continue to tolerate it.

For the BRN and other separatist organisations, extending attacks beyond the historically contested region is a way of warning the Thai state of their disapproval of aspects of the peace negotiations and also the culture of impunity among security officials.

But more importantly, the perception of BRN moral high ground must remain intact, especially in the eyes of the local Malay Muslim residents. How long this quid pro quo arrangement will stand, on the other hand, remains to be seen.

Don Pathan is an independent security analyst and a freelance development consultant based in Yala, Thailand. He is also the founding member of the Patani Forum (www.pataniforum.com).

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/An-ominous-silence-among-insurgents-in-the-deep-So-30267917.html


-- The Nation 2015-09-02

[Toany]

Richard Hill

A German's View on Islam - worth reading. This is by far the best explanation of the Muslim terrorist situation I have ever read. His references to past history... are accurate and clear. Not long, easy to understand, and well worth the read. The author of this email is Dr. Emanuel Tanya, a well-known and well-respected psychiatrist.

A man, whose family was German aristocracy prior to World War II, owned a number of large industries and estates. When asked how many German people were true Nazis, the answer he gave can guide our attitude toward fanaticism.

'Very few people were true Nazis,' he said, 'but many enjoyed the return of German pride, and many more were too busy to care. I was one of those who just thought the Nazis were a bunch of fools. So, the majority just sat back and let it all happen. Then, before we knew it, they owned us, and we had lost control, and the end of the world had come. My family lost everything. I ended up in a concentration camp and the Allies destroyed my factories.'

We are told again and again by 'experts' and 'talking heads' that Islam is the religion of peace and that the vast majority of Muslims just want to live in peace. Although this unqualified assertion may be true, it is entirely irrelevant. It is meaningless fluff, meant to make us feel better, and meant to somehow diminish the spectre of fanatics rampaging across the globe in the name of Islam.

The fact is that the fanatics rule Islam at this moment in history. It is the fanatics who march. It is the fanatics who wage any one of 50 shooting wars worldwide. It is the fanatics who systematically slaughter Christian or tribal groups throughout Africa and are gradually taking over the entire continent in an Islamic wave. It is the fanatics who bomb, behead, murder, or honour-kill. It is the fanatics who take over mosque after mosque. It is the fanatics who zealously spread the stoning and hanging of rape victims and homosexuals. It is the fanatics who teach their young to kill and to become suicide bombers.

The hard, quantifiable fact is that the peaceful majority, the 'silent majority,' is cowed and extraneous. Communist Russia was comprised of Russians who just wanted to live in peace, yet the Russian Communists were responsible for the murder of about 20 million people. The peaceful majority were irrelevant. China 's huge population was peaceful as well, but Chinese Communists managed to kill a staggering 70 million people.

The average Japanese individual prior to World War II was not a warmongering sadist. Yet, Japan murdered and slaughtered its way across South East Asia in an orgy of killing that included the systematic murder of 12 million Chinese civilians; most killed by sword, shovel, and bayonet. And who can forget Rwanda, which collapsed into butchery. Could it not be said that the majority of Rwandans were 'peace loving'?

History lessons are often incredibly simple and blunt, yet for all our powers of reason, we often miss the most basic and uncomplicated of points: peace-loving Muslims have been made irrelevant by their silence. Peace-loving Muslims will become our enemy if they don't speak up, because like my friend from Germany, they will awaken one day and find that the fanatics own them, and the end of their world will have begun.

Peace-loving Germans, Japanese, Chinese, Russians, Rwandans, Serbs, Afghans, Iraqis, Palestinians, Somalis, Nigerians, Algerians, and many others have died because the peaceful majority did not speak up until it was too late.

As for us who watch it all unfold, we must pay attention to the only group that counts -- the fanatics who threaten our way of life.

Lastly, anyone who doubts that the issue is serious and just deletes this email without sending it on, is contributing to the passiveness that allows the problems to expand. So, extend yourself a bit and send this on and on and on! Let us hope that thousands, world-wide, read this and think about it, and send it on - before it's too late.

Now Islamic prayers have been introduced into Toronto and other public schools in Ontario, and, yes, in Ottawa too while the Lord's Prayer was removed (due to being so offensive?) The Islamic way may be peaceful for the time being in our country until the fanatics move in.
And we are silent.......

[Linzz]

Toany

The problem at this point in time is the majority of slaughter is by Muslims of other Muslims. The result of that is a huge Muslim humanitarian crisis with people trying to flee the violence to safer countries. Will these countries take the refugees in or not? Or risk importing extremism?

This will be an unfolding story with serious consequences as to how it is handled. This I see as more to be immediately alarmed about than Dr.Tanay's (so called) prophesy, which sounds very reasonable but I felt had a political agenda.

The fact is It is uncertain how Dr.Tanay's name became attached to this internet viral circulation but largely considered to be a hoax. Dr.Tanay was not even German but Lithuanian. It also was attributed to William J Haynes, Defense council of Bush's war on terror.But It seems to have originated from the blog of Paul E Marek.

What you are doing is promoting that and asking TV members to be involved in chain mail. You should Google your references first unless of course you already know and have your own agenda.

[Emster23]

To quote old movie cliche: "It's quiet...... maybe too quiet"

[dageurreotype]

Toany

The problem at this point in time is the majority of slaughter is by Muslims of other Muslims. The result of that is a huge Muslim humanitarian crisis with people trying to flee the violence to safer countries. Will these countries take the refugees in or not? Or risk importing extremism?

This will be an unfolding story with serious consequences as to how it is handled. This I see as more to be immediately alarmed about than Dr.Tanay's (so called) prophesy, which sounds very reasonable but I felt had a political agenda.

The fact is It is uncertain how Dr.Tanay's name became attached to this internet viral circulation but largely considered to be a hoax. Dr.Tanay was not even German but Lithuanian. It also was attributed to William J Haynes, Defense council of Bush's war on terror.But It seems to have originated from the blog of Paul E Marek.

What you are doing is promoting that and asking TV members to be involved in chain mail. You should Google your references first unless of course you already know and have your own agenda.

Does the provenance really matter? I'd heard a German woman being interviewed express exactly the same thing. 'We didn't know. We weren't paying too much attention at the time'.

[Srikcir]

Perhaps the BRN's silence is from the audacity of the government to expect the BRN to address every violent act in Thailand connected with maltreatment of Muslims. BRN has shown itself historically to be only concerned with the sovereignty of Malay-Thais in the South. On the other hand the government, and especially the military has shown it has no regards to violence perpetrated by it against Muslims in Thailand.

BRN may view the junta's silence as equally ominous.

[Linzz]

Toany

The problem at this point in time is the majority of slaughter is by Muslims of other Muslims. The result of that is a huge Muslim humanitarian crisis with people trying to flee the violence to safer countries. Will these countries take the refugees in or not? Or risk importing extremism?

This will be an unfolding story with serious consequences as to how it is handled. This I see as more to be immediately alarmed about than Dr.Tanay's (so called) prophesy, which sounds very reasonable but I felt had a political agenda.

The fact is It is uncertain how Dr.Tanay's name became attached to this internet viral circulation but largely considered to be a hoax. Dr.Tanay was not even German but Lithuanian. It also was attributed to William J Haynes, Defense council of Bush's war on terror.But It seems to have originated from the blog of Paul E Marek.

What you are doing is promoting that and asking TV members to be involved in chain mail. You should Google your references first unless of course you already know and have your own agenda.

Does the provenance really matter? I'd heard a German woman being interviewed express exactly the same thing. 'We didn't know. We weren't paying too much attention at the time'.

Yes it does. All arguments have higher moral effect if they are completely above board. Otherwise they get discounted

[elgordo38]

To quote old movie cliche: "It's quiet...... maybe too quiet"

Quit a lengthy article but well written. I guess they will come for all of us one day. First they came for ? and then? and then the rest of us.

[ggt]

The real and present danger from Muslim extremists are upon us all...yet in the US Muslims are defended by their own President...go figure!

[DrTuner]

Give the region to Malaysia, free of charge. Sorted, their problem now.

[Linzz]

The real and present danger from Muslim extremists are upon us all...yet in the US Muslims are defended by their own President...go figure!

That's because not all Muslims are extremists.

[Howitzer]

The real and present danger from Muslim extremists are upon us all...yet in the US Muslims are defended by their own President...go figure!

Oh please muslims are defended everywhere or almost everywhere. I don't think you will see any other religion or group that is defended like this whereby it's always this religion that causes the problems but get defended like this whereby just words alone and you get chastised to death.

You can change it to race if you like. You watch on videos where you see blacks doing this or that violent thing and all blacks get it. Or let's say you see chinese people doing violent things and all chinese people get it. They don't get a leeway unlike muslims.

[The Deerhunter]

The real and present danger from Muslim extremists are upon us all...yet in the US Muslims are defended by their own President...go figure!

That's because not all Muslims are extremists.

I am assuming that your response was some form of black joke or semi-troll-piece. Bearing in mind that the whole thrust of the piece which is being repeated under numerous attributions, is that moderate Islam is irrelevant as it is owned by the extremists. It's attraction is that it gives angry young men with no future and a chip on their shoulders, a target (the US & the West generally) for their feelings of impotence. It allows (encourages) murder & rape and promises a heaven much better than life in a middle-eastern ghetto if they are killed in the service of the cause. Kind-of a win-win, isn't it?

The moderates will continue to sit tight and do nothing til one of these fine days a bomb or gun is put in their hands and they are told to kill you or me; or in turn killed, as apostate (not Muslim enough)!

[HLover]

The real and present danger from Muslim extremists are upon us all...yet in the US Muslims are defended by their own President...go figure!

That's because not all Muslims are extremists.

You are spot on, as some make delicious fried chicken at the local market.

[Linzz]

The real and present danger from Muslim extremists are upon us all...yet in the US Muslims are defended by their own President...go figure!

That's because not all Muslims are extremists.

I am assuming that your response was some form of black joke or semi-troll-piece. Bearing in mind that the whole thrust of the piece which is being repeated under numerous attributions, is that moderate Islam is irrelevant as it is owned by the extremists. It's attraction is that it gives angry young men with no future and a chip on their shoulders, a target (the US & the West generally) for their feelings of impotence. It allows (encourages) murder & rape and promises a heaven much better than life in a middle-eastern ghetto if they are killed in the service of the cause. Kind-of a win-win, isn't it?

The moderates will continue to sit tight and do nothing til one of these fine days a bomb or gun is put in their hands and they are told to kill you or me; or in turn killed, as apostate (not Muslim enough)!

No black humor or troll, just answering the question. I never saw Obama defend any extremists so lets be accurate.

To be clear, the combination of medieval thinking and modern technology equals a very frightening prospect and the popularity of simplistic fundamental beliefs by disaffected youth as you mention is a growing worry.However I don't wish to give way to hysteria and lynch mob mentality without recognising that the press shove as much bad news in our faces and the gutter press revel in whipping up a storm to sell as much news as they can. Bad news travels fast and makes dollars quick, especially in this century.Then there are those organisations that propagandize everything because they are itching for conflict, not too different in mentality from those they oppose.

In other centuries when other religions became deviant there was not the same dissemination of information, but we know about the Christian Inquisition, the Catholic Conquistadors, the more recent Irish Catholic/Protestant conflict bombings, the KKK in America. What about the political religions? Communism wiped out 60 million people in Russia..Pol Pot tortured and killed millions in Cambodia. And Rwanda? I could go on and on but somehow the world still survives these temporary horrors.

The point is ISIS will not survive. Moderate Muslims are already fighting them from other Muslim countries.Every action has a reaction. Extremist phases pass with time and the world rebalances.By luck or by management. In the 60's we came to the brink of nuclear war but in the end common sense prevailed.

The majority of Muslims are families who work hard and just want to get on with their lives. I know Muslims as neighbors and tenants and I could not say nicer things about them. I am not Muslim, nor would I want to be, I don't like their religion much. My nearest Muslim neighbor is Fijian Indian. He's shocked by the extremists. He says "Who are these guys? I don't know any Arabs" He is a perfect example that he is as different from a Saudi as I am from a Thai. Islam is a multi cultural, multi ethic, multi language, multi country diversity.They will never agree. Most of the current wars are between Muslims. That is basically a religious conflict too like the Catholic/ Protestant conflict. They have to sort themselves out.

Just don't succumb to the "The're coming to get you" drama and that Islam is owned by extremists because they are not. I remember the "red under the bed" of the 60's hysteria. Communism is almost finished and will not survive. Nor will Islamic fundamentalism because so many of them in so many Islamic countries are fighting oppression to get an education and human rights. Not sitting tight and doing nothing at all.

[RickBradford]

As for us who watch it all unfold, we must pay attention to the only group that counts -- the fanatics who threaten our way of life.

Brigitte Gabriel makes the same point forcefully.

[Linzz]

While Gabriel makes a good point that we all have to be aware and vigilant about radical Islam, we need to balance this with facts also.

Brigitte Gabriel has claimed that Obama supports and arms radical jihadists such as ISIS, has friends that are terrorists, was raised a Muslim and studied at Muslim schools. All totally unsubstantiated claims .In fact his father was an atheist.Obama attended public school and a Catholic college. When claims are made that are non factual or outright fabrications then you have to wonder about the driving agenda and credibility of the speaker,even if you agree with the sentiments. Now she is called a right wing nutjob because she has damaged her own cause.

This is why I said in an earlier post that is necessary for us to look behind the face of the messenger before we take the message at face value as truth and fact and then act upon it. This is precisely how Muslim's are radicalized by their own talking heads.

By the way Rick, should I take your avatar at face value and think you're a communist?

Edited September 2, 2015 by Linzz

[fish fingers]

Part of the cause of this trouble was us Brits .. by taking Kedah back to Malaysia after the war, the two countries are left with that weird border.

Personally feel the thai government should return at least two of the majority muslim Provinces to semi autonomy like it used to be.

Edited September 2, 2015 by fish fingers