Thai consumer confidence hits 15-month low

[webfact]

Consumer confidence hits 15-month low
PETCHANET PRATRUANGKRAI
THE NATION


Thanavath Phonvichai, director of Economic and Business Forecasting Centre, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce

BANGKOK: -- THE Ratchaprasong bombing, a dropping SET Index, and the sluggish economic growth in China beat down Thai consumer confidence to a 15-month low in August, with confidence in travel, investment and purchasing power hitting a 122-month low.

However, consumers have high hopes of the government's new economic team, amid expectations that the recently announced stimulus package will boost growth in gross domestic product by 0.7-1 percentage point this year. According to a nationwide survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC), the Consumer Confidence Index slid for the eighth consecutive month to 72.3 points in August, down from 73.4 in July, the lowest level in 15 months. A reading below 100 points reflects poor sentiment.

This is quite bad news for the retail sector, as consumers believe it is the worst time in 122 months to spend money to buy a new car or house, start a new investment or travel.

"People are greatly concerned about their incomes, as the economic outlook is not good. Many negative factors including the bomb blast in Bangkok, falling SET Index, China's slowing growth, low crop prices, and weak exports have affected Thai sentiment seriously," Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the university's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre, said yesterday.

However, the government's Bt136-billion stimulus package should strengthen economic growth by 0.7-1 percentage point, so GDP should expand by 2.5-2.9 per cent this year. Without the stimulus, Thanavath would expect the economy to grow by less than 2.5 per cent. He said the Consumer Confidence Index should bounce back or increase this month after the government's announcement.

The UTCC estimates that the Ratchaprasong explosion caused a loss of about Bt70 billion to the Thai economy, China's sluggishness and the yuan depreciation have caused a loss of about Bt60 billion to Thai exports, and the drought created an economic loss of about Bt30 billion to Bt40 billion. The positive factors cited in this survey were lower fuel prices and the retention of the central bank's policy interest rate.

Wachira Kuntaweethep, assistant director of the UTCC, said that based on the 2,200 responses to the survey last month, other indices reflecting consumer confidence also continued dropping, including future incomes to 87.6 and employment opportunities to 67.6 points.

Meanwhile, the UTCC survey of 1,200 respondents indicated that 80 per cent of Thais have household debts. Of those debtors, 42.1 per cent have debt burdens with the banks and loan-sharks and 51 per cent with the underground loan system. Average household debt is Bt248,000. The reasons for Thailand's high levels of household debt are falling incomes, rising cost of living, natural disasters or unexpected expenses, and overspending with credit cards.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Consumer-confidence-hits-15-month-low-30268077.html


-- The Nation 2015-09-04

[Reigntax]

Meanwhile in a survey of 1500 resondents, 80% said they didnt understand the question being asked but answered anyway to avoid losing face.

Of the two posible answers, they choose that with a picture of the PM beside it rather than the alternative with a picture of a jail cell.

[EnglishJohn]

Meanwhile in a survey of 1500 resondents, 80% said they didnt understand the question being asked but answered anyway to avoid losing face.

Of the two posible answers, they choose that with a picture of the PM beside it rather than the alternative with a picture of a jail cell.

Yes, because a lot of people have been put in jail for that.

Don't you feel even a bit embarrassed writing lies to try and make a political point ?. What is wrong with you people ?.

Going by the rest of your post, you need to get on with your homework and leave the stuff which goes over your head to the grown ups.

[webfact]

Average household debt this year the highest in ten years



BANGKOK: -- Thai households have an average debt of 248,004 baht each this year which represents an increase of 13.16 percent of last year’s average of a 219,158 baht which is the highest in ten years, according to a poll result of the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce.

Mr Thanawat Pholvichai, director of the economic and business forecast centre of the UTCC, said Thursday that the poll result came from an opinion survey of 1,200 households during August 20-28.

Of the average household debt of 248,004 baht this year, 48.7 percent are organized debt and the rest are unorganized debt, said Mr Thanawat, pointing out that the increased household debt reflected the economic slowdown in the past three years which has affected household revenues.

He explained that the fact that households were indebted to unorganized lenders more than to organized lenders because they had limited access to organized source of funding.

The causes of increased household debts range from lower incomes, increased cost of living, poor farm harvests, increased spending through credit cards to increased tuition fees of their children, gambling and excessive spending on hire purchases.

The survey shows that 87.8 percent of the debtors have problem of debt servicing; average household debt repayment amounts to 14,033 baht per month, representing an increase of 5.06 percent from last year’s 10,752 baht.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/average-household-debt-this-year-the-highest-in-ten-years


-- Thai PBS 2015-09-04

[coulson]

average household debt repayment amounts to 14,033 baht per month, representing an increase of 5.06 percent from last year’s 10,752 baht.

Typo? Which are the facts?

Business opportunity opens in Thailand.....research.

[NOC]

Even in the midst of what looks to be an elongated economic depression, there is no hope.

I went from store to store yesterday, (2 Makro's, 2 Powerbuys', 2 homepro's and a Thaiwasado) with 30k in my pocket, trying to buy an air-conditioner.

I couldn't find one single salesman that knew the product, didn't talk out both sides of their mouth, or wasn't on facebook.

[kingalfred]

Thais overspending and in debt. It aint on necessities. Their addiction to luxury goods and the credit to get the items "in their face at Malls and in the media" is irresistible.Thailand has got itself in the "western trap". The only money being spent by the non wealthy is borrowed money and with its fake property price boom it can only lead to disaster

Edited September 3, 2015 by kingalfred

[fish fingers]

So everyone raises prices to compensate... it won't work this time.

[lostoday]

Thais overspending and in debt. It aint on necessities. Their addiction to luxury goods and the credit to get the items "in their face at Malls and in the media" is irresistible.Thailand has got itself in the "western trap". The only money being spent by the non wealthy is borrowed money and with its fake property price boom it can only lead to disaster

Thai ladies with American husbands have gotten a nice raise in the past couple of months.

[Praematura]

Must be a coincidence that the coup and the decline in consumer confidence timeframe overlap. It's only going to continue to go down as growth here is plummeting, household debt is increasing and work hours are being cut.

[onni4me]

Thais overspending and in debt. It aint on necessities. Their addiction to luxury goods and the credit to get the items "in their face at Malls and in the media" is irresistible.

Might be some truth in this but generally I see people trying to do their best. Thailand has jumped direct from the rice fields to the mobile era, perhaps too quickly, and therefore people have invested heavily into the needs of modern days. They have bought new cars to be able to go to work and they have bought a house to live in. I see nothing worng with this.

What has failed them is the backwards system of schooling and education along with the everchanging governments clinging into the past and making sure that the interests of the rich are not threatened in any way.

People of Thailand don't have the luxury of free and professional schooling system and neither they have social welfare system providing them the necessities when they fall on hard times. It could be the death of a spouse or falling sick that would collapse their economy.

People who like to have the prejudice to judge Thais and generalizing are the worst. You do exactly the same as rich Thais. It is always the fault of people who were not given a chance to begin with. They were not born with wealth. had little chance for education. No social welfare. One could think that given the circumstances they are true survivors.

When someone speaks bad of these people, it is no different than in the West someone preaching that anyone can be anything if they just decide so. I strongly disagree. Without any backup from society and no access to funds dreaming of better days remains the only option.

[elgordo38]

So everyone raises prices to compensate... it won't work this time.

It will if they want it bad enough and their credit has a little stretch left to it. This whole bring prosperity to Asia was just an importation of our bad habits of borrowing money to buy useless gadgets we did not need. They refined the process and took it another step further. I can stand on a street corner in my home country and never see the number of new cars pass by like they do here. It is very rare to see older vehicles here and wages are 10 fold or more higher there. All the kids here have mobiles ipads eat at KFC are well dressed dyed hair painted nails the works yet in most cases the income stream is much smaller here. Governments are a 2 faced monster on one hand giving us almost 0 percent interest rates so that we load up on credit to(in their words to help the economy improve). Then they abruptly turn around and say "Hey you have borrowed way to much money" So which is it? Your talking to consumer junkies who cannot control their purse strings.

Edited September 4, 2015 by elgordo38

[lostoday]

So everyone raises prices to compensate... it won't work this time.

It will if they want it bad enough and their credit has a little stretch left to it. This whole bring prosperity to Asia was just an importation of our bad habits of borrowing money to buy useless gadgets we did not need. They refined the process and took it another step further. I can stand on a street corner in my home country and never see the number of new cars pass by like they do here. It is very rare to see older vehicles here and wages are 10 fold or more higher there. All the kids here have mobiles ipads eat at KFC are well dressed dyed hair painted nails the works yet in most cases the income stream is much smaller here. Governments are a 2 faced monster on one hand giving us almost 0 percent interest rates so that we load up on credit to(in their words to help the economy improve). Then they abruptly turn around and say "Hey you have borrowed way to much money" So which is it? Your talking to consumer junkies who cannot control their purse strings.

You wrote, "I can stand on a street corner in my home country and never see the number of new cars pass by like they do here." The weather is great in Cuba what are you doing here?

[ggt]

It is not just Thai consumer confidence that is low...it is a world phenomenon at the moment...countries have enormous debt...many are already bankrupt...printing gobs of money is keeping them afloat...the US included...this is a bad omen...it is likely to get worse before it gets better...stock markets are in decline...commodity prices are in free fall...there is no relief on the horizon...

I am not a doom and gloom person...the facts speak for themselves...

[Srikcir]

"The UTCC estimates that the Ratchaprasong explosion caused a loss of about Bt70 billion to the Thai economy"

If the Shrine bombing was a reaction to Prayut's inhumane decision to defy Thailand's signatory to UN International Agreements on treatment of Refugees to return Uighur illegal immigrants to China, then should he not personally owe the Thai people Bt70 billion for the economic loss?

As the Prayut regime claimed that Yingluck should have known the PTP rice pledge program would result in an economic loss, so should have Prayut. As the government held Yingluck personally responsible for the subsequent economic loss, so should Prayut be held responsible.

Or will it be a matter that current power decides the rules and there's no equality under the law? Then reform only seems to apply to those who lose power.

[Cake Monster]

The vast majority of Thai consumers are against the wall as far as spending goes.

For many years cheap credit, and loans have been readily available to the consumer, but now due to ever rising NPL,s, increasing household debt, and the reigning in of lending by the banks to SME,s ( self employed ), and the employed, there is very little cash being made available to spend on anything but essentials.

A sharp realisation is starting to hit the country, and that is, if money is borrowed, it needs repaying. And with extra money as interest.

A walk around your district will tell you how tough things are getting for Thai people.

Cars for sale everywhere, more BBQ chicken stalls on the sides of the roads, closed businesses, shophouses for rent / sale, and an ever increasing number of houses/condo,s for sale or rent.

Like many other countries, Thailand is seeing a sharp downturn in its fortunes, and needs to adjust to what will be the new norm.

[lostoday]

The vast majority of Thai consumers are against the wall as far as spending goes.

For many years cheap credit, and loans have been readily available to the consumer, but now due to ever rising NPL,s, increasing household debt, and the reigning in of lending by the banks to SME,s ( self employed ), and the employed, there is very little cash being made available to spend on anything but essentials.

A sharp realisation is starting to hit the country, and that is, if money is borrowed, it needs repaying. And with extra money as interest.

A walk around your district will tell you how tough things are getting for Thai people.

Cars for sale everywhere, more BBQ chicken stalls on the sides of the roads, closed businesses, shophouses for rent / sale, and an ever increasing number of houses/condo,s for sale or rent.

Like many other countries, Thailand is seeing a sharp downturn in its fortunes, and needs to adjust to what will be the new norm.

A few weeks ago. Boy are you wrong (and they were all buying).

Edited September 5, 2015 by lostoday

[dageurreotype]

So everyone raises prices to compensate... it won't work this time.

It will if they want it bad enough and their credit has a little stretch left to it. This whole bring prosperity to Asia was just an importation of our bad habits of borrowing money to buy useless gadgets we did not need. They refined the process and took it another step further. I can stand on a street corner in my home country and never see the number of new cars pass by like they do here. It is very rare to see older vehicles here and wages are 10 fold or more higher there. All the kids here have mobiles ipads eat at KFC are well dressed dyed hair painted nails the works yet in most cases the income stream is much smaller here. Governments are a 2 faced monster on one hand giving us almost 0 percent interest rates so that we load up on credit to(in their words to help the economy improve). Then they abruptly turn around and say "Hey you have borrowed way to much money" So which is it? Your talking to consumer junkies who cannot control their purse strings.

You know, this is something I noticed in Penang. Lots of older cars you never see here, an SUV in Penang is a rare sight. And their cost of living's higher. So whilst I have some sympathy with the previous post about the locals not having access to the higher standing of living that we do, you could hardly label Malaysia a welfare state/land of opportunity. So, yes, it is the Thai mindset and no, it's not 'Thai bashing'.

[Jon Wetherall]

My wife just asked me why it is that all photos of Thais show them with their mouth open.

I'm not sure how to break it to her.

[Jon Wetherall]

The vast majority of Thai consumers are against the wall as far as spending goes.

For many years cheap credit, and loans have been readily available to the consumer, but now due to ever rising NPL,s, increasing household debt, and the reigning in of lending by the banks to SME,s ( self employed ), and the employed, there is very little cash being made available to spend on anything but essentials.

A sharp realisation is starting to hit the country, and that is, if money is borrowed, it needs repaying. And with extra money as interest.

A walk around your district will tell you how tough things are getting for Thai people.

Cars for sale everywhere, more BBQ chicken stalls on the sides of the roads, closed businesses, shophouses for rent / sale, and an ever increasing number of houses/condo,s for sale or rent.

Like many other countries, Thailand is seeing a sharp downturn in its fortunes, and needs to adjust to what will be the new norm.

A few weeks ago. Boy are you wrong (and they were all buying).

I'll bet that piccy was taken just as the dancing girls showed up.

[Jon Wetherall]

The vast majority of Thai consumers are against the wall as far as spending goes.

For many years cheap credit, and loans have been readily available to the consumer, but now due to ever rising NPL,s, increasing household debt, and the reigning in of lending by the banks to SME,s ( self employed ), and the employed, there is very little cash being made available to spend on anything but essentials.

A sharp realisation is starting to hit the country, and that is, if money is borrowed, it needs repaying. And with extra money as interest.

A walk around your district will tell you how tough things are getting for Thai people.

Cars for sale everywhere, more BBQ chicken stalls on the sides of the roads, closed businesses, shophouses for rent / sale, and an ever increasing number of houses/condo,s for sale or rent.

Like many other countries, Thailand is seeing a sharp downturn in its fortunes, and needs to adjust to what will be the new norm.

You're right. The evidence is there in spades. They tell me even Pattaya is in trouble but I never went there so I wouldn't know. I've already got a barstool.