Myanmar pins democratic dreams on historic election

[Jonathan Fairfield]

Myanmar pins democratic dreams on historic election

Myanmar's first-time voters are seen posing in Yangon, in this combination picture Nov. 6, 2015. Myanmar heads to the polls on Nov. 8. (REUTERS/Jorge Silva)

By Ros Russell

YANGON (Myanmar Now) - Myanmar goes to the polls on Sunday in historic parliamentary elections which, if free and fair, will mark a key milestone on a bumpy path to democracy.

Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s opposition National League for Democracy is widely tipped to win the vote, but needs a landslide victory to outgun the military’s fixed bloc of a quarter of parliament’s seats and form a government.

As Myanmar emerges from half a century of military rule, around 33 million eligible voters will elect lawmakers to the upper and lower houses of the national parliament and to regional and state legislatures.

Voters will choose between the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the widely popular NLD and dozens of smaller parties, many of them representing Myanmar’s numerous ethnic minorities.

The vote is a crucial step in Myanmar’s democratic transition that began in 2011 when the semi-civilian government of former general President Thein Sein took power and embarked on a series of political and economic reforms.

If the NLD captures two thirds of contested seats - gaining a majority despite the 25 percent military allocation enshrined by the 2008 constitution – it will be able to form a government and select the next president when parliament convenes in February.

Suu Kyi herself is barred from the top office by the army-drafted constitution because her two sons are foreign nationals, but said at a news conference this week that she would be “above the president” and take all important decisions.

There has been no credible opinion polling during the election campaign, but a survey of voters carried out last month by Myanmar Now in three Yangon townships showed overwhelming support for the NLD.

In the countryside, however, the popularity of Suu Kyi’s party may be dented by the rise of Buddhist nationalism that has played a powerful role in campaigning.

More than one million Rohingya Muslims have been disenfranchised from the vote and neither of the two main parties have fielded a single Muslim candidate.

Radical monks who have spearheaded anti-Muslim campaigns have urged voters in the Buddhist-majority country not to vote for the opposition because it opposed controversial laws to "protect race and religion" drawn up by the group and passed earlier this year in the USDP-dominated parliament.

The USDP enjoys solid support in some conservative rural areas, where its incumbent candidates have pushed to deliver on election promises of renovating roads, schools and Buddhist monasteries.

The 59 ethnic parties contesting the election are expected to perform well in the borderlands, although the Union Election Commission has cancelled voting in some 600 conflict-affected villages, mostly in ethnic minority areas.

Myanmar's government and eight armed ethnic groups signed a ceasefire last month, but the military remains at war with a number of groups.

After the election, ethnic and smaller parties may be courted by one of the two main parties if they seek alliances to secure a parliamentary majority.

IRREGULARITIES

Reports this week of irregularities in advance voting had marred what many hope will be Myanmar's first credible election since 1990, which the NLD won by a landslide, but was annulled by the military.

Suu Kyi accused officials connected to the USDP, which has several former generals among its top ranks, of using dirty tactics and said the electoral commission had failed in its responsibilities to ensure a fair vote.

“I am concerned about the extent to which the authorities and those connected to the USDP are prepared to go in order to try to win the elections,” Suu Kyi said in a news conference on Thursday in the garden of her lakeside home, where she was held under house arrest for some 15 years.

“We have information already about advance voting carried out in a totally illegal way contrary to the regulations of the election commission.”

Myanmar’s last two general elections were both held with Suu Kyi in detention. Her NLD party boycotted a 2010 poll, objecting to the 2008 constitution, and the vote was widely condemned as rigged in favour of the USDP.

Teams from the European Union, the United States-based Carter Center, the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) as well as grassroots Myanmar groups will deploy observers at polling stations across the country on Sunday.

“They will be the eyes and the ears of the mission on Election Day during polling, counting and tabulation of results,” said Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, the EU’s chief observer.

Lambsdorff said in October he had been given assurances that international observers could access polling stations on military bases, seen as key to ensuring the transparency of the poll, after analysis of the 2010 vote showed that many of the irregularities came from votes cast on military compounds across the country.

Polling on Sunday opens at 6 am and closes at 4 pm.

Source: http://www.myanmar-now.org/news/i/?id=fcaf2e5b-87eb-4e35-8af3-ca0ec9f105ea

-- (c) Copyright Myanmar Now2015-11-07