Will the Condo-/Apartment rental market shrink significantly after the current Visa crackdown?

[bazza40]

Anyone who depends on a retirement extension to stay, had better be looking for an emergency parachute, post-haste. It's just a matter of time until they make it more and more painful to renew it. If you have a lot of money, it will not affect you as soon, but I truly fear for those on a month-to-month budget.

Perhaps you could explain if there is a basis for your rumour-mongering. What solid evidence do you have the renewal process will become more painful?

[bazza40]

How do you rent short term? Condos are not hotels and it can become a police matter as most condos that I've seen in Bangkok have rules against short term rentals and have notice posted on the main door which is the equivalent of trespassing.

It is common practice in my condo in Chiang Mai to rent out to tourists for 1-2 weeks, even though there are condo rules against the practice. Landlords are so desperate to cover their annual condo fees they would probably rent to Charles Manson. Usually the units rented out are in inferior positions, e.g. facing street noise etc. Long-term good tenants are like gold.

[ozyjon]

'' When demand falls while supply increases, rental prices, would fall. ''

YES and errr NO

Yes in many western / civilized countries where twin siblings arent

married to each other,,

but NO

This is Thailand, demand goes down, prices goes up.

[PattayaPhom]

Junker is in negotiations with Prayut about housing 3 Million refugees. I see rents on the increase all over Thailand

[PattayaPhom]

Anyone who depends on a retirement extension to stay, had better be looking for an emergency parachute, post-haste. It's just a matter of time until they make it more and more painful to renew it. If you have a lot of money, it will not affect you as soon, but I truly fear for those on a month-to-month budget.

Perhaps you could explain if there is a basis for your rumour-mongering. What solid evidence do you have the renewal process will become more painful?

I think he is referring to those, and there is a large percentage that obtain "assistance" in getting their retirement extensions but as you said where is there any note of this getting more difficult

[hawker9000]

As someone who spent twelve years selling property here, I can tell you that the OP's story is a story about nothing.

And as someone who spent twelve years selling property here, I expect you'd like to keep doing so. And that'll be harder to do if prospects are warned off, won't it? Tout your "insider knowledge" all you want; in your case its a 2-edged sword. As an "outsider" I have to say that much is apparently being made of heavily discounted condo units if there's really nothing to it.

Oh, I see. Retired now. So "special knowledge" is no longer current/firsthand... Or maybe you're just heavily invested. 'Just don't see how anyone can be so dismissive of obvious signs of oversupply. Visa tightening probably just one on a list of reasons though.

No special knowledge since I retired, because I have been living in a cupboard since then. Obviously.

Nope. Just the usual defensive expat with an agenda.

[questionsreplies]

Nothing changed and nothing will ever change for people with money...

[mrfaroukh]

There is a sign on the immigration office in Jomtien saying Bad guys out, God guys in.probably they now want a real tourist and long term stayer with money and not those who work illegally and get visa run just to continue their illegal jobs in the country or whatever they were doing. Of course some people also who are nice people and were living on education visa and had enough money to spend will also burn in this process.

I already feel it that there are more rooms available and clearly see on the road and walking street that number of European has decreased and Chinese have increased. But Chinese are coming with the tour, hotel is already booked, places of interest to see already planned and they do not spend much of eating out or drinking. Yes they may do some shopping which is one of the only source of income by the tour operators.

[trogers]

There is a sign on the immigration office in Jomtien saying Bad guys out, God guys in.probably they now want a real tourist and long term stayer with money and not those who work illegally and get visa run just to continue their illegal jobs in the country or whatever they were doing. Of course some people also who are nice people and were living on education visa and had enough money to spend will also burn in this process.

I already feel it that there are more rooms available and clearly see on the road and walking street that number of European has decreased and Chinese have increased. But Chinese are coming with the tour, hotel is already booked, places of interest to see already planned and they do not spend much of eating out or drinking. Yes they may do some shopping which is one of the only source of income by the tour operators.

Yes! In the eyes of the locals, especially govt officials, those with money are 'Gods'...

[hhgz]

Let's see...TVers predicted a crash of the condo market cons market would occur on August 29, 2014. On that date, according to these guys, the visa crackdown would prevent faring school teachers from buying condos for their bargirlfriends. Further, according to these Einsteins, faring school teachers are the driving force in the Bangkok condo market. Isn't that the silliest thing you've read on this site...except for the conspiracy theory that China has purchased 50% of the world's gold, and "banksters" have manipulated the price of gold to stay low.

[Robert24]

I guess you are referring to the below 50 year old foreigner population that has previously been staying in Thailand on a long term basis on ED/Tourist visa. I don't think that population is that big to make a big impact on supply and demand of condo/real estate prices. And also there are other options for this group to stay in Thailand. So in summary, no impact at all in my opinion.

[fang37]

A tad more complex. I would guess far beyond your mental capacity.

A cheap guesthouse would suit your requirements.

[KittenKong]

All I know is that my building has fewer short-term tenants now than I have ever seen. Suits me fine as they are a complete pain in the a*se, as are the landlords who rent to them. May they all go bankrupt. I am more than prepared to take the hit on the value of my condo if it means I dont have to put up with short-term tenants.

Immigration/government is simply trying to reduce the numbers of impecunious foreigners whom they suspect might be working illegally to support their stay, or generally living on the breadline. Those on retirement/marriage extensions or with elite card visas will not experience any trouble, though I expect the deposit/income requirement for a such extensions/visas to rise at some point due to inflation etc.

Indeed we have already seen quite hefty proof of income requirements introduced for longer tourist visas where none existed before (see METV threads)

[hawker9000]

"...or generally living on the breadline."

I've never actually seen one of these in Thailand. Anywhere. Where are they exactly, and how does a foreigner, impecunious or otherwise, get in one?

There are actually several factors at work not all that favorable to the condo market. It's not just visas ( but that plays a role). It's not just reporting requirements or new enforcement. It's not just crimes on foreigners, or scams, or bad taxi drivers, or corrupt officials & police. It's a bunch of things. Most of the pollyannas focus on one thing and insist that one thing isn't that big a deal and so can't be of any significance in driving demand. ...deliberately ignoring the forest for just one tree.

[KittenKong]

"...or generally living on the breadline."

I've never actually seen one of these in Thailand. Anywhere. Where are they exactly, and how does a foreigner, impecunious or otherwise, get in one?

It's an idiom. Definition here:

http://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/live+on+the+breadline

You could replace that one by "living from hand to mouth" if you like.

There are plenty of farangs in Thailand who have no significant cash reserves and who are entirely dependent on fixed pensions from their home country or small earnings from online work, both of which could vary in THB value substantially on a whim of the forex markets.

Those under 50 who have a good income simply wont care about visa crackdowns as they will just buy an Elite card visa. Those over 50, like me, will care even less.

There are actually several factors at work ..........

Indeed there are, as is usually the case in anything to do with prices. This is why I mentioned the general desire of the Thai government to rid itself of foreigners who have no visible means of support. There are several ways that they can do this and I suspect that they will try all of them.

On top of that there are several factors that may influence condo rental/sales prices generally, not least massive oversupply in many areas. Anything that reduces demand can only be bad news for occupancy rates.

[cheeryble]

In CM despite the building of large numbers of mini-condos aimed at the new demographic city-working Thai middle class there are still a very limited number of nice units suitable for modestly affluent farang. I think of size, quality, and location, and preference for a building which is already fully populated (therefore getting all fees in)

I should note that those well located buildings which have been up a year or two that I know seem to have now sold out even though they are central I consider them poorly located between other buildings. The older buildings with prime locations and views are the best bet and still seem to be cheaper and better value.

Edited November 20, 2015 by cheeryble

[arunsakda]

Answer to OP query.

No. "En-Oh". No.