Canadian dollar thread... how much will it tank?

[theguyfromanotherforum]

I understand there aren't too many chatty Canadians here, but how much do you think Canadian dollar will tank against the baht in 2016?

I keep thinking it's over, the oil can't down much lower. Alberta is reporting increase in suicide rates due to loss of oil patch jobs. I guess that's what happens when the whole country relies on one industry.

I am surprised the baht is still this strong though. So, my question is strictly about CAD vs Baht.

[cigar7]

My guess is that it will reach 24b, when US increases its bank rate. Without a US hike should be around 25.5b

[elgordo38]

I hear 69 to the US dollar. Of course their oil market is tanking to and they are supposedly the "biggest" producer in the world at "present" and it is tanking as well so go figure. If the American oil junk bond market collapses all bets are off on the USA dollar. It is a fair size piece of the junk bond market if a backup occurs and people panic and try to sell into a market that lacks buyers the imbalance will indeed be frightening. Markets are based on buyers and sellers and once the balance goes out of wack trouble follows. The bond market is twice as big as the stock market and if that chokes up 2008 here we come again to revisit. Just hope the baht tanks to. Canada had a surplus in the last calendar year and the American debt market is zooming up to 20 trillion dollars. Lets hope everybody has a chair once the music stops.

Edited December 14, 2015 by elgordo38

[ourdon]

Out of curiosity what rate are you getting now? I ask because I'll be flying out this week and will be in LOS In January. The local cambios (Calgary) are offering 24 and change per dollar. I just thought I'd exchange when I got there.

[timber]

About 26 depending on how you transfer it

[ourdon]

Was just going to use my debit card. That's worked everywhere else I've been wandering. I've found the banks and the cambios give you a slightly better rate if you exchange about a thousand CAD at a time. Is there a better way in Thailand? I'm coming in as a first timer for a couple of months.

[ourdon]

I hear 69 to the US dollar. Of course their oil market is tanking to and they are supposedly the "biggest" producer in the world at "present" and it is tanking as well so go figure. If the American oil junk bond market collapses all bets are off on the USA dollar. It is a fair size piece of the junk bond market if a backup occurs and people panic and try to sell into a market that lacks buyers the imbalance will indeed be frightening. Markets are based on buyers and sellers and once the balance goes out of wack trouble follows. The bond market is twice as big as the stock market and if that chokes up 2008 here we come again to revisit. Just hope the baht tanks to. Canada had a surplus in the last calendar year and the American debt market is zooming up to 20 trillion dollars. Lets hope everybody has a chair once the music stops.

If you are talking about the "inventive" way the US government allowed the oil companies to list and value their shale oil reserves......yeah that is going to be quite a clusterphuque. There are a bunch of energy companies that are going to lose significant percentages of their net worth literally overnight when they have to report. It will make the discussions with their bankers quite active. Does this not have some of the same stink that subprime did?

It will be interesting.

[cigar7]

Out of curiosity what rate are you getting now? I ask because I'll be flying out this week and will be in LOS In January. The local cambios (Calgary) are offering 24 and change per dollar. I just thought I'd exchange when I got there.

Best exchange rates are in Bangkok. Bring cash, new plastic undamaged $100 bills. Try this website: http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/ also try http://siamexchange.co.th/

Edited December 19, 2015 by cigar7

[cigar7]

Just as predicted, CAD$ now 24.85b in Bangkok today.

The CAD$ is forecast to go down to USD$0.59 in 2016, so we should see CAD$ around 23-24 baht in 2016.

If the US Federal Reserve increases interest rates again, by June, and oil prices go to USD$15 a barrel, CAD$ will continue sliding to low USD$0.50 range. With Iranian oil coming into th world market, we could see US$10-12 oil. If someone bombs Saudi Arabia's oil fields, there will be a sharp reversal.

[OMGImInPattaya]

My poor Canadian friends...just a few years ago, they were over CAD 110 to the USD...and with oil now under $ 30 a barrel who knows where the bottom is. The Canadians and the Aussies were riding high for years...I used to feel like a poor relation...but the stars are now back in their usual alignment.

[Gutenberg]

Promising title.

The Canadian dollar is getting crushed

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-canadian-dollar-is-getting-crushed-2016-01-12

But if you looking at the Russians, they lost 80% against THB since 2008.

[eng911]

Walk into a CDN bank today with $100 and you'll leave with $67.45 USD

On top of this the Bank of Canada may lower rates again this week, which could send the CDN lower.

Bangkok Bank is buying CDN notes at 24.46 THB today. We could be down in the 23's by midweek. Ugh!

I'm coming to BKK today. We definitely will be adjusting our spending. Every $1000 CDN will give us about 3000THB less than just a few months ago.

So we'll be bi-passing a few tourist attractions and spending more time reading a good book and enjoying time with our family.