British exit from European Union: Are there lessons for Asean?

[webfact]

British exit from European Union: Are there lessons for Asean?
Aedan Mordecai


Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron, his Slovakian counterpart Robert Fico and German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the European Union leaders summit in Brussels on December 17.

If UK leaves, it would have significant consequences. Could Asean face a similar situation one day?

SINGAPORE: -- Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron has spelled out his demands for remaining in the European Union, which he hopes to renegotiate with the union before the in/out referendum he promised the nation during the last general election.

The referendum, likely to be next year, will ultimately determine whether the UK continues to be part of the EU, regardless of the outcome of the negotiation attempts.

Cameron called for the referendum because he is unsatisfied with the bloc as it is, but conversely is also campaigning to remain in the EU. The reasons to stay for Cameron are obvious - the EU is the UK's main trading partner and the single market offers many economic benefits.

Although Cameron, as leader of the Conservative Party, represents the majority of the nation's capital owners first and foremost, the promise of a referendum was a necessary move as they were losing votes to the party further to the right, the populist United Kingdom Independence Party.

Britain to leave the EU?

The question seems to be why is the UK threatening to leave while simultaneously renegotiating? Does this represent a failure of the EU model - whereby members cannot otherwise air their grievances formally, in a manner where they are addressed in a timely and serious fashion - or is Cameron just using this episode as a political ploy to satisfy his domestic constituents?

Either way, the EU has to face this conundrum, which could lead to contention among its members due to the UK's demands. As well as requiring alterations to existing treaties, Cameron wants to change the requirements for EU migrants to claim benefits. This would undermine the EU's principle of free movement, and would require some creative negotiating on Britain's side to achieve. Ultimately a compromise will likely be reached and a deal made, as the UK is not alone in desiring reform.

Why is Britain, one of the union's core members, potentially on the brink of leaving the EU? This situation has surfaced after much debate regarding the UK's position in the EU. Eurosceptic sentiment has grown within the country over recent years, a trend not just restricted to Britain. Parts of society believe that Brussels - the home of the EU - decides too much of what happens domestically, with sovereignty being chipped away.

Others are unhappy about the perceived influx of foreigners and its effect on local society. Sentiments such as these have been magnified by the emotions that the recent Paris attacks have stirred, with many fearing that Europe's open borders could be exploited by terrorist organisations.

These feelings are underlined by the common belief that the British Isles inherently differs from Continental Europe.

Implications of a 'Brexit' on Asean

The momentum is with the "exit" camp, with recent polls indicating they have gained a majority. The implications of leaving the union will not be trivial. For one, it will not just lead to the UK separating from the EU, but also from Scotland. Scotland would almost certainly demand a repeat referendum regarding its independence, with the Scottish population likely to vote for it this time around.

Cameron would then be in an untenable position, and would have to step down as prime minister. The new leader would be obliged to negotiate bilaterally with the EU countries, as Britain will no longer be part of the single market, an inevitably arduous process.

Most crucially the UK - or what is left of it - would be on the outside, looking in, when it comes to EU matters. Britain's strength militarily, economically as well as geopolitically would represent a loss for Europe. While one could not predict the referendum result at present, leaving will have considerable implications.

Asean, despite the constant comparisons, differs hugely from its European counterpart, both in organisation as well as in culture. Asean is far more flexible. There is almost no infringement on a member's sovereignty. Provisions are in place to avoid situations like the current EU showdown.

The insertion of the "Asean minus X" clause allows members to opt out of agreed economic conditions if they feel they are not ready. Though this could lead to a two-track Asean, it does at least ensure that agreements are not forced upon states.

These provisions all stem from the Asean principle of consensus. While the principle has its critics, and results in a snail's pace process of integration and decision-making, it minimises discontent.

The potential Brexit stems from domestic concern of Britain's relationship with the union. Conversely, Asean hardly features on any of its member states' domestic agendas, as it is predominantly an intergovernmental organisation and does not possess the EU's supranational character. It's highly improbable that there could be a backlash against Asean as an institution that we are currently witnessing in Europe.

The establishment of the Asean Economic Community last Thursday will lead to further integration, though not to the degree of the EU's single market arrangement. This pattern of steady integration raises the

possibility of future calls for changes to previous agreements, as a consensus in the present does not ensure a consensus in the future.

Unlikely as the Brexit scenario seems at present, the future is less predictable. Asean should consider including an exit mechanism in its charter, as well as provisions for when a member state strongly desires an immediate change to the organisation. Safeguards and formal procedures could mitigate any damage arising from one of Asean's members deciding to rock the boat.

Aedan Mordecai is a research analyst at the Nanyang Technological University's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/British-exit-from-European-Union-Are-there-lessons-30276060.html

-- The Nation 2016-01-04

[bark]

Not even close to being in the same boat. The EU has most of it's problems because of the social programs. Countries working hours of 32-35 hours per week. Retirement age of 50-55 years in some countries. Huge debts to support , health care, unemployment benefits etc. The Asian countries do not care about most of these problem for their people.

[hugh2121]

There is almost no infringement on a member's sovereignty.

Nor was there with the European Common Market, predecessor of the EU.

[billphillips]

There is almost no infringement on a member's sovereignty.

Nor was there with the European Common Market, predecessor of the EU.

Quite right, it's the political interference of the EU that's causing problems, the common market was a reasonable idea. The single currency was one of the coffin nails.

[sanukjim]

Not even close to being in the same boat. The EU has most of it's problems because of the social programs. Countries working hours of

32-35 hours per week. Retirement age of 50-55 years in some countries. Huge debts to support , health care, unemployment benefits etc.

The Asian countries do not care about most of these problem for their people.

You hit the nail on the head. The big thing is if The UK exits The EU then Scotland will depart The UK and England might be in an even worst fix.In the beginning the big question was "How do you expect to form a union where you include Greece and France knowing their history of socialism type of government programs or no government plans at all?" Did the other nations think that they were going to change "The Leopards Spots".. No,at the time they just was thinking about the euro replacing the dollar and you see how that went.

[Seastallion]

Apples and pears.

Thailand could try to exit once it becomes apparent that Thailand's inability to move forward (in terms of accepting English as the common ASEAN language and accepting international standards (safety, business integrity etc)) and Thailand's xenophobia WRT "lower class" neighbours who will excel in the ASEAN community.

Thailand is stuck between a rock and a hard place: Lose face nationally as Thais become the workers for Burmese and Lao entrepreneurs, or lose face nationally as Thais are forced to adopt foreign standards.

Completely different kettle of fish with Britain and the EU. Different problems, and thus nothing to learn.

[Thaidream]

The UK was very smart not to use the Euro as its currency and hold onto the Pound. As an American, I have always been amazed at the difficulty of so many Nations with so many different cultures being able to agree on most things or in some cases have things forced upon them. The British Prime Minster is being quite adept at using the planned referendum to renegotiate certain things with the EU which will enhance the UK. I can't see the UK leaving the EU but I can never see the UK giving up the Pound. Sterling is still one of the most respected currencies in the World.

[bangon04]

There is almost no infringement on a member's sovereignty.

Nor was there with the European Common Market, predecessor of the EU.

Quite right, it's the political interference of the EU that's causing problems, the common market was a reasonable idea. The single currency was one of the coffin nails.

" The reasons to stay for Cameron are obvious - the EU is the UK's main trading partner and the single market offers many economic benefits."

and if this were the issue, most would agree. But the EU has gone far beyond a single market. The lesson for ASEAN is clear - Economic Cooperation Yes, superstate No.

[oldgent]

Uk should have stayed British it was a disaster look how many solid industries were lost.

[DeaconJohn]

Exit the EU and apply to become the 51st American state.

[mpa]

Exit the EU and apply to become the 51st American state.

With free health care? No way.

[RickBradford]

Why is Britain, one of the union's core members....

Not even close to being true. The foundations of the European project were laid in 1951 as the European Coal & Steel Community, which became the EEC in 1957. The UK was repeatedly snubbed before it was allowed to join in 1973, a day that will live long in infamy.

Since then, it has consistently opted out of many pet Euro schemes such as Schengen and the Euro (otherwise known as Dumb and Dumber) and its generally hostile attitude is tolerated -- barely -- in Brussels, because of its economic clout.

[nontabury]

There is almost no infringement on a member's sovereignty.

Nor was there with the European Common Market, predecessor of the EU.

Quite right, it's the political interference of the EU that's causing problems, the common market was a reasonable idea. The single currency was one of the coffin nails.

" The reasons to stay for Cameron are obvious - the EU is the UK's main trading partner and the single market offers many economic benefits."

and if this were the issue, most would agree. But the EU has gone far beyond a single market. The lesson for ASEAN is clear - Economic Cooperation Yes, superstate No.

The U.K. Has a trade deficit with the EU of over 61 billion a year. So no benefit to the UK, It is the EU that benefits from the UK membership.

[MAJIC]

There is almost no infringement on a member's sovereignty.

Nor was there with the European Common Market, predecessor of the EU.

Quite right, it's the political interference of the EU that's causing problems, the common market was a reasonable idea. The single currency was one of the coffin nails.

The single currency was sought by the now EU,but was refused by subsequent UK Political Parties,and that remains the position to this day! taking on board the

single currency has always been perceived as also giving up UK sovereinty and a step too far integrating with the EU,Monetarily,and not in the UKs best interests !

Edited January 4, 2016 by MAJIC

[Scott]

An off-topic post has been removed.

[oldsailor35]

Are there any real benefits to the UK staying the EU

[mpa]

Are there any real benefits to the UK staying the EU

You mean apart from the 2 plus mil emigrated to EU?

Let alone the beneficiaries.

https://scontent.fath4-1.fna.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/12373368_981666218573166_2739853097777242_n.jpg?oh=a2451261537562ef34561301234dcaf2&oe=5705D3B4

[nontabury]

Are there any real benefits to the UK staying the EU

You mean apart from the 2 plus mil emigrated to EU?

Let alone the beneficiaries.

https://scontent.fath4-1.fna.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/12373368_981666218573166_2739853097777242_n.jpg?oh=a2451261537562ef34561301234dcaf2&oe=5705D3B4

Most of those Brits living in Spain,France,Portugal and the Irish republic, 1,700,000 Are not there working, they are mainly retirees, in the most part living off their investments and pensions, and as such are an asset to those countries. Compare these figures with the known legal immigrants into the UK.