Asian and SE Asian Currencies 20-30% Over-Valued ☺

[fletchsmile]

Might help if you posted some more info or links, as to who are these "respected commentators", and which are these "many currencies" they are talking about, and even if it includes the baht

USD/THB is around 36.X

a 30% devaluation would take that to around 47, even 20% would take that to around 43, rather than 40-42.

also today's exchange rate has/had very little to do with the reasons for coup

All suggests really that none of this stacks up and comes across more as "bar talk and rumours"

so a bit more info and links might add some credibility...

And you can link us to your post of two years ago predicting that the baht would weaken from 30-1 on the US$ to 37-1?

I certainly had no idea...and have no idea where it will be in 6 months to a year but the signs of a strong dollar and the continued weakening of export and/or resource commodity export economies country currencies is a pretty sure thing. Even a weakening of another 10% would put the baht over 40 to the dollar...something I don't recall for over a decade.

How could I provide a link to a prediction I never made - never mind the fact you're asking for it from 2 years ago

On the other hand you're making the claim now that "respected commentators" are saying this.and for "many Asian Currencies".

Shouldn't be too difficult to give a bit more info as to who's saying that? and which currencies? and whether they're even talking about the baht at all...

I'm assuming the bit about the coup is your own analysis BTW

The argument is that China is in a world of hurt and the leg the Chinese economy has to stand on is exports. I mean, they gotta keep 1.5 billion people clothed, housed, and fed. In order to stoke demand, they gotta increase exports in a sluggish world economy. How to do this...make them cheaper by devalueing their currency (which they've been doing).

In order to compete, the other export dependent Asian countries, like Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and their SE Asian brethren, will have to follow suit. It's just something I read and posted on...you're free to disagree completely ☺

You stated "respected commentators" and "many Asian currencies". So I was just interested mainly in who was saying this, and whether they were actually talking about Thailand and THB at all.

As it stands its just something that someone read from someone, somewhere. Kind of like bar talk. If you sit around and listen enough you'll hear all sorts. Same with reading on the internet.

It's an interesting topic.

My guess would be it was probably some no-mark with a little knowledge who needs to drum up a bit of interest for his writings for some reason, talking very generally, focusing on worst case scenarios in worst case countries and probably not even talking about Thailand specifically and THB at all.

For example, here's one of many articles, around the subject. Reasoned analysis. You can see who's written it. You can see where they think Thailand fits and why, with supporting reasons

http://fsv2.iqnewsclip.com/C-160114003034.pdf?transid=aff02ba6312c451bbb4416f0902f4041&productname=iqnewsalert

as for my own view

20% - 30% devaluation in the Thai baht? I think the "respected commentator" either: doesn't know what they're talking, has a good chance that they're not even talking about Thailand or weren't including Thailand in those "many Asian currencies" overvalued by 20%-30% in the first place or its been extrapolated to apply to Thailand when it really doesn't.

It's so far out saying that about THB reaching 42+ that I was just interested in who was saying it and why. Stranger things have happened of course, but without any further info I'd put it right up there with "Freddie Star ate my Hamster" journalism

Edited January 14, 2016 by fletchsmile

[Naam]

You stated "respected commentators" and "many Asian currencies". So I was just interested mainly in who was saying this, and whether they were actually talking about Thailand and THB at all.

what a question Fletch! read Thaivisa and you will find dozens of respected commentators who predict a downturn of the Baht

[Naam]

You really need to check your facts before posting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-07/oil-exports-from-u-s-jump-34-to-record-as-shale-output-booms

What she meant is that the US doesn't rely on oil exports for its economy the way that Saudi or Russia do. The US is a manufacturing, service and tech economy. It's also loaded with natural resources. Your attempt at a sting only further shows what strength the US has.

The US has more proven oil reserves than all of the rest of the world combined and yet oil isn't the foundation of its economy. Can that lack of reliance be said of Saudi or Russia or many ME or SA countries?

Cheers.

perhaps cooking oil but not crude

I've read that if all the potential known shale rock oil formations were included that this may be correct...or at least as much oil that of that of the current known reserves of the Middle East and North Africa.

you have read WHERE?

[jpinx]

You really need to check your facts before posting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-07/oil-exports-from-u-s-jump-34-to-record-as-shale-output-booms

What she meant is that the US doesn't rely on oil exports for its economy the way that Saudi or Russia do. The US is a manufacturing, service and tech economy. It's also loaded with natural resources. Your attempt at a sting only further shows what strength the US has.

The US has more proven oil reserves than all of the rest of the world combined and yet oil isn't the foundation of its economy. Can that lack of reliance be said of Saudi or Russia or many ME or SA countries?

Cheers.

perhaps cooking oil but not crude

I've read that if all the potential known shale rock oil formations were included that this may be correct...or at least as much oil that of that of the current known reserves of the Middle East and North Africa.

you have read WHERE?

Well -- if we're going to talk about "potential" oil -- what about the Chinese future oil production from their artificial islands (assuming they don't get kicked out and the oil claimed by the USA -- via Philippines or some-such devious plan) There's oodles of oil known to exist in many deepwater fields, but it's too difficult to extract for now. Given that oil is dropping fast and production is out of control now that Iran is starting to flood the market, I'd suggest the petro-dollar has had it's day, and shale oil will never be economic.

In other news,,,,

Standard and Poor's, brought out a new analysis ...

"........The ratio of debt to GDP (a proxy for income in this analysis) for Asia-Pacific and Latin America far outstripped that for Europe and North America.

....

In terms of corporate debt, the very high borrowing of Chinese and Hong Kong corporates amid China's economic slowdown poses a prominent risk,......."

S&P don't usually use such blunt language......

Edited January 15, 2016 by jpinx