Move to Thailand and live for a hundred years - or does it just feel that way?

[nglodnig]

This can't be right:

Figures released by the British government showed that between 2011 and 2012 there were 296 British deaths in Thailand.

In the 12 months up to April 1, 2013 there were 389 British deaths in Thailand, while in the same period up to April 2014 there were 362 deaths and 267 hospitalisations of British tourists.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-2833369/Thailand-one-dangerous-tourist-destinations-Earth-Ex-pat-investigation-lifts-lid-dark-Land-Smiles.html#ixzz404MnT4vh

Far be it to use the Daily Mail as the only source (they do have Katie Hopkins as one of their columnists) so here is the UK government one which backs up the numbers:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/363684/141013_British_Behaviour_Abroad_report_2014.pdf

But there are 41,000 British residents in Thailand according to a BBC article. So you have a one per cent chance of dying in one year, so therefore you will probably live in Thailand for a hundred years according to my simple arithmetic. Apparently this figure is both for tourists and residents - and as most residents are here on a retirement visa and probably showing advanced age, is this country the elixir of life and youth? Or do people seeing the white light and hear dead relatives beckoning hurry off on the next flight home before the Grim Reaper calls?

One could assume that Brits would would head back home when finding they have life-threatening conditions to be treated by the NHS for free but I believe you will find you will be treated like any other medical tourist if you haven't been making regular recent NI contributions:

http://www.pah.nhs.uk/files/c%29%20Non%20Resident%20UK%20Citizens.pdf

An extremely morbid subject I must admit, and sorry for the Brit-centric post.

Edited February 13, 2016 by nglodnig

[ukrules]

This can't be right:

You're right about that.

[NeverSure]

No, after you've been there for a couple of years hitting the bars and booze you just look like you're 100.

[Hedghog]

I know I won't make the 100 mark.

Was recently informed I have 10 years left at best.

Quit a shock at 55 years old.

Not an issue just means I have more money to spend in the present.

Can't be bad.

[cyberfarang]

Read the Daily Mail report and that journalist makes Thailand seem like a war zone. He said, It only came to me slowly, after having my drinks repeatedly spiked, being robbed, bashed and having my passport stolen, that Thailand was not quite The Land of Smiles that I had once thought it to be. - He must be the unluckiest man in the world and seems that all the crimes in Thailand have been perpetrated against him.

I do think that as per percentage of Farlangs in Thailand population regarding tourists and expats combined, deaths must be extraordinarily high and go with the flow that Thailand is not a safe country. I must admit that I am more inclined to put up with more crap here from Thais then I would from people in my native England knowing full well I have no citizenship rights and can`t lay claim to anything. This however I have excepted but I always feel vulnerable knowing that I stand being on the losing end if in confrontations with Thais or the system. I have come to rely on good will instead of laws to archive and move forward in Thailand. Over the years I have become disillusioned with living in Paradise.

[GuestHouse]

nglodnig,

You are failing to examine the demography of the British immigrant population, and British tourist in Thailand.

Prior to the economic crash in the late mid 90s there were virtually no British immigrants living in Thailand, a relatively small number of expat migrant workers, but the number of British citizens living full time in Thailand on their own account was relatively tiny.

The big influx came a couple of years after the economic crash and brought in a large numbers of British immigrants (mostly male) who where largely in the late 40s to early 60s age group. The recovery of the Baht and the global economic recession saw many of these people return to the UK (or to other locations).

As you recognise, a number return for health reasons, from the number of people I personally know who have returned to the UK because of health and for access to the NHS, I believe that number to be bigger than we might imagine. Your concerns about getting treatment on their return are ill founded.

Suffice it to say, many make a big show of arriving, announcing their arrival to the world, few say anything about leaving, preferring a quiet departure.

Then look at the age group of tourists, they start coming under their own steam in their early 20s but are for the most part 30s and 40s.

I don't think you can argue that these two groups are representative of any society, the age, health and life expectancy is not going to be representative either.

Then there is the question - are all deaths reported to the British Embassy? I very much doubt they are.

What is missing is any kind of data on the number and causes of death v the age and gender of the deceased, we might then draw some interesting conclusions.

Edited February 14, 2016 by GuestHouse

[Monomial]

Your math is deeply flawed.

First, assuming there is a 1% chance of dying/99% chance of living each year, then the half life of the population is 69 years (log 0.5 / log .99). So after 69 years, you would have a 50% chance of dying. After 138 years, you would have a 75% chance, etc. It would take an infinite amount of time to reach 100%. So by your simple logic, there is a chance you could live forever in Thailand (or any other country for that matter).

So what is wrong with your analysis? The above are average values across a population. In order to apply them over an extended duration, the entire population would need to approximate the average over that duration. Of course, that is unreasonable. Someone 100 years old has a much better chance of dying than someone who is 30. Ask any life insurance agent if he gives everyone the same premium to everyone regardless of age.

Thus, you would need to constantly adjust an individual's death probability based on his age. It would not be a constant over a long period of time. So while the average chance of dying over an entire population may be 1%, an individual's specific chance is highly variable and weighted heavily with age and other factors. In fact, you are much more likely to face an early death in Thailand than in the West.

The articles are logically and factually correct. It is merely your understanding that is wrong.

I understand this post was almost certainly tongue in cheek, but a mathematically rigorous analysis is always relevant and proper.

[geronimo]

Read the Daily Mail report and that journalist makes Thailand seem like a war zone. He said, It only came to me slowly, after having my drinks repeatedly spiked, being robbed, bashed and having my passport stolen, that Thailand was not quite The Land of Smiles that I had once thought it to be. - He must be the unluckiest man in the world and seems that all the crimes in Thailand have been perpetrated against him.

I do think that as per percentage of Farlangs in Thailand population regarding tourists and expats combined, deaths must be extraordinarily high and go with the flow that Thailand is not a safe country. I must admit that I am more inclined to put up with more crap here from Thais then I would from people in my native England knowing full well I have no citizenship rights and can`t lay claim to anything. This however I have excepted but I always feel vulnerable knowing that I stand being on the losing end if in confrontations with Thais or the system. I have come to rely on good will instead of laws to archive and move forward in Thailand. Over the years I have become disillusioned with living in Paradise.

Close the door on your way out.

[bendejo]

I know I won't make the 100 mark.

Was recently informed I have 10 years left at best.

Quit a shock at 55 years old.

Not an issue just means I have more money to spend in the present.

Can't be bad.

In the 1980s-90s a lot of people who were diagnosed with AIDS figured they were soon to die, so they spent all they had, maxed out what credit they could get hold of, and after some years found themselves still alive but penniless and no chance of getting any sort of credit.

So, a guy goes to the doctor. The doctor tells him he as six months to live. He tells the doctor he doesn't have the money to pay the bill, so the doctor gives him another six months.

RIP Henny Youngman

[nglodnig]

@monomial - thanks for your considered reply.

As you said, it was a tongue in cheek post but it surprised me that with reported deaths less than 400 a year in a resident population of 41,000 this is a mortality rate of something like nine per thousand - lower than the UK as a whole I believe, even more surprising when I would expect that the majority of residents are on retirement visas so would be over fifty years of age.

The nub of the figures is the reporting of deaths to the Consulate, sadly this figure includes too many deaths each year by (usually young) tourists in motorbike/moped accidents and the like - "misadventure" I suppose would the cause of death here - so the less than 400 becomes even more unbelievable.

I don't know if the Thai authorities report all British deaths to the British consulate, especially if there were no relatives who had an interest - so either a large number go unreported or maybe Thailand has something in the (bottled?) water that makes people live longer. I suspect the former.