China 'has deployed missiles in South China Sea' - reports

[boomerangutang]

Good read: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/17/crunch-time-for-washington-and-beijing-in-the-south-china-sea/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2AEditors%20Picks

I agree, good read. It asserts what I have known for awhile. Though i would have written it a bit different. I would have said how there's no way China will back down from its stance of complete control. It may slow its militarization of the islands, but only for intervals. It's a ratchet affect. The only way China will seize it's take-over of the Paracels and Spratelys is to be pushed out forcibly. No amount of discussions or UN resolutions will achieve that.

That's why I recommend a stealth-led preemptive bombing of any and all military build ups on the islands. It will be a was, and hopefully a small one, smaller than the war which kicked Saddam out of Kuwait. Remember the build-up to that war? There was so much talk about how strong the Iraqi Army was, with it's Russian tanks, etc. It wound up being a turkey shoot. Support facilities had to keep telling US tanks to slow down because the tanks were gaining too much ground too quickly. Not one US tank nor any US jets suffered as much as one bullet hole. I'm not saying an armed conflict with the Chinese military would be as lopsided, but instead: it's easy to over-estimate the might of one's adversary.

[Publicus]

 

The US has the best stealth aircraft in the world. China has copies, but as always, is decades behind the curve. China copied one of the US's stealth fighters. It got the shape right, but didn't get the details/functions right. The resultant jet didn't meet Chinese needs (when they did test runs against US adversaries) so the Politburo chose to sell the jets to other countries.

Publicus makes some good points re; subs. I would add: a big reason Thailand plans to buy Chinese subs, is pressure from Chinese contractors (and it's easier to put 33% in one's pocket when dealing with the Chinese than with western suppliers). The Thai junta can't say no to China (they also quickly agreed to Chinese built-trains, funded by Chinese loans). Even as the ink was drying on the train contract, Thai observers were seeing problems (a Chinese voice in the background, "So sorry, too late to change anything, ha ha ha").

A Thailand with Chinese-made subs would likely take orders from China re; the subs' deployment. Can you imagine Thai admirals saying no to China? I can't. At best, we can expect Thailand to take a back seat to a SE Asian military conflict, along with Laos and Cambodia. Yet sometimes, no action speaks as loud as action. I'm not advocating Thailand directly challenge China, but it would be comforting to see Thailand showing camaraderie and support for its SE Asian neighbors. If one of Thailand's islands were being commandeered by a stronger military entity, I wouldn't doubt Thais would like to have support from Philippines and Vietnam.

Since the Vietnam war the Thai army has been equipped, supplied and trained by US army and the Thai air force has been an extension of the USAF. The Thai navy has however been equipped, supplied, trained by the CCP and its PLA Navy. Courtesy of Prem and Chavalit and in the absence of any big deal admiral around who'd have any say. As has always been evident, the army runs the show and it is the 13th largest of the world besides.

Thailand is a formal treaty ally of the US in mutual defense, however, everything is pretty much in suspension during recent times going forward and for a while yet. It's one of five formal defense treaty allies of the US in the region, the others being Japan, South Korea, Phils, Aus-NZ. Their defense is our defense which is something the CCP Dictators in Beijing had been very slow to get. CCP finally did back off from Japan and the East Sea but remains classic Chinese Middle Kingdom delusional when it comes to the SCS (and Thailand).

Thai elites btw must know how disrespectful the CCP Chinese are toward Thailand to include Thai culture and civilisation. CCP teaches in the schools Thai civilisation is low status and and backward, that the country is bound and constricted by religion and the nature of its ruling classes. CCP teaches that Thais still eat with their hands and that everyone is poor. Worst of all, the people riot a lot which is why the military has to keep taking control to save the country and its wonderful leaders. Etc. If I found this out during my time in the CCP China, surely the Thai elites must know it and even more so. Still, they grovel to China.

CCP Dictators are upset with Asean for several reasons, to include their most recent visit to the US to meet in California with President Obama. CCP had calculated an Asean "ripe fruit" strategy which has gone to spoil. CCP had figure things such as the rail project in Thailand and elsewhere in Asean with loans included would buy off Asean in relation to the SCS. That however went south as most of Asean remains united against Beijing's actions in the SCS and insists on Beijing negotiating with Asean rather than single country by single country as CCP demands unrelentingly.

[Publicus]

 

Publicus, one problem with your analysis, VN is no match in Sea/Air for China and neither is any other Asian country. Japan pretty damn close and can fight and Singapore will give them a run for the money. China tried invading VN a few years back, got their butts kicked, you know kinda' like we did...lol. Hey did we have a troll join in? Oh and as far as Islamic or Chinese or anybody that doesn't allow freedom, screw 'em. A totalitarian government, whether communist, islamic, left or right, alleged democratic or not still sucks and deserves a fight. Good read: http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/17/crunch-time-for-washington-and-beijing-in-the-south-china-sea/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2AEditors%20Picks

Indeed yet my post stated Vietnam was headed toward a low-intensity one off incident against the CCP and their PLA and PLA Navy and Air Force in the SCS. I never said Vietnam would whup the CCP in World War III or somesuch cause VN is no match against the CCP in a sustained high-intensity conflict especially given they share borders on land and sea alike as well as in the air.

Japan on the other hand has come up quite nicely since year 2000. US Naval War College assessment is that although PLA Navy outdoes the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force in tonnage and number of ships, personnel, etc CCP would have its hands full against the Japanese navy. Japan has the better capital and strategic ships, more and better training and quality of personnel, it's better led and commanded, a greater long term naval history to learn from to include a much longer period of an industrialised economy, society, military than does China. By far in fact.

Japan is now capable of defeating the PLA Navy full on. Tokyo is placing missiles along the Ryukyu Island chain from Japan to Taiwan. This is after having shifted the bulk of its land, air, sea self defense forces from up north against Russia to the south in the face of new CCP belligerence and bellicose aggressions. Mutual defense treaty allies Japan and the US control the vital Miyako Strait in the Ryukyus which is the PLA Navy's only direct access route to the open western Pacific.

The US has now recovered its First Island Chain of strategic defense in the western Pacific, i.e., control in a north-south line from Japan to South Korea to Taiwan, the Philippines to Brunei at the edge of the SCS. Beijing had recently gained the upper hand with its A2/AD missile defenses that had made the US hold of the First Chain problematical (anti-access defensive weaponry; area denial weaponry).

With Japan placing missiles throughout the Ryukyus the PLA Navy is now trapped in the shallow waters between the First Strategic Island Chain of the US and the China continental mainland. Sitting ducks they are, the whole of the PLA Navy. So their only outlet now is the SCS where we're setting up to contain 'em. Or pick 'em off there too.

CCP's new presence on SCS islands both natural and artificial has already caused commercial shipping to reroute itself and it has closed off the territorial fishing areas of several Asean countries to their own fishermen and fishing industries. And there are the undersea natural resources at risk as well.

I see a bad moon rising and a good whuppin coming.