Economic growth forecast to be trimmed



BANGKOK: -- The Fiscal Policy Office will adjust its economic growth projections down following the negative impact on the national economy by the slowdown in exports.

Somchai Sujjapongse, permanent-secretary of the Ministry of Finance, said that the Fiscal Policy Office will be making adjustments to the country’s economic growth projections.

A reduction is expected to be made to a previous estimate that April will experience a growth of 3.7%.

This was a result of the slowdown in exports accompanied by the worsening national drought situation which has resulted in Thailand’s economy being unable to meet the earlier target.

Mr Somchai stated however that new estimates should be better than the 3.1% projected by the Bank of Thailand as the country is still waiting on government spending on major national infrastructure projects such as electric rails, motorways and expressways.

The injection of investment funds will help to offset the slowdown in exports to a certain degree.

In any event, he said the Ministry of Finance (MOF) has also revealed that it has prepared a new economic stimulus package that should come on line before the upcoming Songkran festival.

These include tourism promotion programs in the form of national shopping campaigns, middle and bottom level civil servant incentive programs and aid packages for drought ridden residents throughout the country.

These programs will similarly provide much needed injection of funds into the economy as well.

At present, the MOF is carrying out studies on these programs to assess the viability of each but it is expected that these programs should be able to contribute to stimulating economic growth by at least 0.07%.

Accordingly, these programs will also contribute to 2017’s economic growth by at least 0.08%, he said.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/content/156807

-- Thai PBS 2016-03-25

Was reading between the lines " trimmed" MEANING FROM PROJECTED GROWTH OF 3.5 percent to .007 percent trimmed? sounds more like cut down to the root.

Mr Somchai stated however that new estimates should be better than the 3.1% projected by the Bank of Thailand as the country is still waiting on government spending on major national infrastructure projects such as electric rails, motorways and expressways.

Hmmm. "Still waiting" on infrastructure spending in late March that will have an effect in April.

Dream on.

Edited March 25, 201610 yr by phoenixdoglover

Mr Somchai stated however that new estimates should be better than the 3.1% projected by the Bank of Thailand as the country is still waiting on government spending on major national infrastructure projects such as electric rails, motorways and expressways.

Hmmm. "Still waiting" on infrastructure spending in late March that will have an effect in April.

Dream on.

But on the other hand the February exports jump 10.3%, defying market expectations for the first time over a year. So positive marked data. So maybe the government spending work

Mr Somchai stated however that new estimates should be better than the 3.1% projected by the Bank of Thailand as the country is still waiting on government spending on major national infrastructure projects such as electric rails, motorways and expressways.

Hmmm. "Still waiting" on infrastructure spending in late March that will have an effect in April.

Dream on.

But on the other hand the February exports jump 10.3%, defying market expectations for the first time over a year. So positive marked data. So maybe the government spending work

Please explain how infrastructure spending of the type planned within Thailand would result in a jump in exports.

Mr Somchai stated however that new estimates should be better than the 3.1% projected by the Bank of Thailand as the country is still waiting on government spending on major national infrastructure projects such as electric rails, motorways and expressways.

Hmmm. "Still waiting" on infrastructure spending in late March that will have an effect in April.

Dream on.

But on the other hand the February exports jump 10.3%, defying market expectations for the first time over a year. So positive marked data. So maybe the government spending work

Please explain how infrastructure spending of the type planned within Thailand would result in a jump in exports.

i Cant, so please read between the lines

Many "downward adjustments" will be made in the coming months

Short back n sides with a crew cut would be more like it...............................

Was reading between the lines " trimmed" MEANING FROM PROJECTED GROWTH OF 3.5 percent to .007 percent trimmed? sounds more like cut down to the root.

helps if you read it..

Mr Somchai stated however that new estimates should be better than the 3.1% projected by the Bank of Thailand

At present, the MOF is carrying out studies on these programs to assess the viability of each but it is expected that these programs should be able to contribute to stimulating economic growth by at least 0.07%.

Mr Somchai stated however that new estimates should be better than the 3.1% projected by the Bank of Thailand as the country is still waiting on government spending on major national infrastructure projects such as electric rails, motorways and expressways.

Hmmm. "Still waiting" on infrastructure spending in late March that will have an effect in April.

Dream on.

But on the other hand the February exports jump 10.3%, defying market expectations for the first time over a year. So positive marked data. So maybe the government spending work

$19 billion February export is a very positive surprise, but the drop in imports to $14 billion does not bode well for future export numbers.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/imports

Mr Somchai stated however that new estimates should be better than the 3.1% projected by the Bank of Thailand as the country is still waiting on government spending on major national infrastructure projects such as electric rails, motorways and expressways.

Hmmm. "Still waiting" on infrastructure spending in late March that will have an effect in April.

Dream on.

But on the other hand the February exports jump 10.3%, defying market expectations for the first time over a year. So positive marked data. So maybe the government spending work

$19 billion February export is a very positive surprise, but the drop in imports to $14 billion does not bode well for future export numbers.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/imports

....or a lot of gold is being shipped out of Thailand.

Exports from Thailand unexpectedly increased by 10.27 percent to 18,990 USD million in February of 2016, following a 8.91 percent decline in a month earlier and beating market estimates of a 7.65 percent drop. It is the first growth since December 2014 and the largest since January 2013, mainly supported by shipments of gold. Over the past three years, sales have been shrinking amid political instability and the slowdown in Chinese economy. For 2016, Thailand's central bank has forecast a 2.0 percent decline in exports. Exports in Thailand averaged 9542.85 USD Million from 1991 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 21227.12 USD Million in August of 2011 and a record low of 1997 USD Million in February of 1991. Exports in Thailand is reported by the Ministry of Commerce, Thailand.

Edited March 25, 201610 yr by ExpatOilWorker

Growth forecast "trimmed" is code for "slashed".

these programs will also contribute to 2017’s economic growth by at least 0.08%

Fiscal Policy Office predicted that growth rate would be 3.1% for the whole year not considering the government stimulus package. So adjust the prediction to 3.18%. But the ongoing drought crisis will affect consumption in the agricultural sector and reduce the country’s gross domestic product by 0.5%. So adjust the prediction to 2.68%.

Siam Commercial Bank predicted that Thailand's economy this year is expected to recover gradually and should expand by no less than 2.5%.

Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) forecast the country's economic growth this year at 2.8%.

The World Bank predicts Thailand's growth to be 2% for 2016.

However it's sliced, growth for 2016 will not exceed growth of 2.5-2.8% for 2015 and potentially contract even further.