SURVEY: Brexit, do you support it?

[SgtRock]

If you have a spare hour this is worth watching.

https://vimeo.com/166378572

[BeefSlapper]

The real issue is not the economics of in or out, it's migration.

I would say its more that Brussel tells local gov what to do. And locals got no real powers

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[allanos]

It was salutary, was it not, that following the doom and gloom pronouncements by Mark Carney,

the Canadian Governor of the Bank of England, yesterday, that the British economy would likely go into

recession, with heavy job losses, following a "Brexit", the pound (GBP) spiked upwards (strengthened),

albeit only for a short while. It then settled back into the day's range.

It hints to me that the currency markets have largely factored in both of the possible scenarios, and will not,

in future, be too alarmed if the Exit vote wins the day.

[Mosha]

It was salutary, was it not, that following the doom and gloom pronouncements by Mark Carney,

the Canadian Governor of the Bank of England, yesterday, that the British economy would likely go into

recession, with heavy job losses, following a "Brexit", the pound (GBP) spiked upwards (strengthened),

albeit only for a short while. It then settled back into the day's range.

It hints to me that the currency markets have largely factored in both of the possible scenarios, and will not,

in future, be too alarmed if the Exit vote wins the day.

A bank warning of recession. They lost credibility after bankers caused GFC.

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[Orac]

It was salutary, was it not, that following the doom and gloom pronouncements by Mark Carney,

the Canadian Governor of the Bank of England, yesterday, that the British economy would likely go into

recession, with heavy job losses, following a "Brexit", the pound (GBP) spiked upwards (strengthened),

albeit only for a short while. It then settled back into the day's range.

It hints to me that the currency markets have largely factored in both of the possible scenarios, and will not,

in future, be too alarmed if the Exit vote wins the day.

Not really. If both scenarios were factored in , assuming that is even possible in the first place, there would have been no spike at all in the value of the pound as it would not matter what the BoE governor said. That it strengthened (and I haven't checked how significant a movement it was) could be an indication of an increase in confidence in us staying in the EU as the BoE were putting up a fight rather than taking an 'independant' position.

[BaldPlumber]

Brexit is undoubtedly already priced into the sterling exchange rate.

It's interesting that even with the overwhelming support for bremain from economists, captains of industry and world leaders that the brexit vote is nudging ahead.

It's hard to reconcile that if such doom and gloom, pestilence and plague will surely follow a brexit decision, that the government actually allowed a referendum to begin with.

[Grouse]

I note that Euro zone countries are now coming out of recession. Last Q exceeded USA growth.

Some green shoots at least ?

I also see that the IMF is wading in again with dire warnings

Maybe its my naivety, but I can not discount all of these experts as being Disengenuous.

Edited May 13, 2016 by Grouse

[Grouse]

OLIVE BRANCH

It is my view that the decision to stay or leave the EU is both a serious and complex issue

The situation is made more difficult because of the apparant lack of universally trusted sources of information.

Currently, and ON BALANCE, I think the UK is better off staying in and trying to resolve some if not all of the many problems from within.

For me, the biggest problem is the democratic deficit

The greatest benefit is the benign social democratic influence that tends to temper the more extreme right wing tendencies of the Tory's and our American cousins

I'm also inclined to agree with The Economist's view of the benign influences on trade an business generally

Thank you

Ignoring the Olive branch, as its too late for that - I have said all along that the stay/leave vote is v complex and trusting 'sources' is down to each individuals' own personal opinion on those sources.

I do however agree that the EU has been a good (albeit expensive) influence on the UK when it comes to workplace rights - not to mention trying to limit bankers' bonuses.

On the other hand, I vehemently disagree that the EU will sort out its problems if the UK remains part of the EU. It would take a likely disintegration before they (possibly) put their house in order IMO.

Even so, I'm still v unhappy about the possibility of (personally) voting to leave - as I trust the Brit govt. even less than I trust the EU govt .

I didn't say the EU would sort its own problems out. I think the UK (with like minded others) COULD apply pressure for change. Why not? Germany, Netherlands, Denmark and UK could hammer home Anglo Saxon realities.

Don't give up so easily!

[sometime]

I would like to see the U.K. stay in the E.U. I am a U.K. citizen and on a purely personal view there are many reports that the British pound would tank by approx. 20% which would be extremely detrimental to my financies .

But the point you are missing, there will be no British pound, only the Euro, so it will be 40% less, plus NO EU benefits paid outside the EU, so make plans to go home, Think outside the box.

[Grouse]

I would like to see the U.K. stay in the E.U. I am a U.K. citizen and on a purely personal view there are many reports that the British pound would tank by approx. 20% which would be extremely detrimental to my financies .

But the point you are missing, there will be no British pound, only the Euro, so it will be 40% less, plus NO EU benefits paid outside the EU, so make plans to go home, Think outside the box.

Evidence?

I'm really trying hard guys....

[Thaiwine]

Someone commented on how bad the UK was prior to joining the EEC, we had a labour government from 1964 the PM was Harold Wilson, he again won the next election two years later, the pound was devalued under the labour government who’s socialist policies of spend spend spend caused them to go cap in hand to the IMF to borrow money to bail us out, the people rejected Labour at the next Election in 1970 and Edward Heath became PM, he took the UK into the EEC, the people paid him back at the next Election in 1974 when they brought Harold Wilson back, who stayed until 1979.

My thoughts are that Socialist policies were to blame for the problems of the sixties, tax the rich and give to the poor while on the surface seems like a noble thing to do actually stifles progress in business, and encourages laziness among the less well off, while the Conservative policies of work hard and reap the rewards brought about prosperity.

[Thaiwine]

I note that Euro zone countries are now coming out of recession. Last Q exceeded USA growth.

Some green shoots at least ?

I also see that the IMF is wading in again with dire warnings

Maybe its my naivety, but I can not discount all of these experts as being Disengenuous.

Have you considered that these organisations are part of the establishment and that it may not be in their intrest to see the UK leave the EU.

[South]

.

I am a British citizen, from generations of British parents/grand parents etc but raised in commonwealth Africa. From the age of 9, went to boarding school in Britain. Saw my first 'commonwealth' freind running a cornershop around 1978, saw my first non British football player around 1979 and since then (bear in mind, I have pretty much never lived in the UK) it has seriously gone down hill in my eyes. When the UK joined the EU I have no idea when, but everytime I do a 2 yearly visit to the place it gets worse. Maybe I'm getting on a bit or whatever but the 'Great' from Britain left a long long time ago. Time to get it back ..... if it is not too late.

Just MHO.

[BaldPlumber]

As recommended earlier, brexit the movie is well worth watching.

Especially with regard to the most successful and democratic country in Europe that refuses to join the EU, Switzerland.

[SgtRock]

As recommended earlier, brexit the movie is well worth watching.

Especially with regard to the most successful and democratic country in Europe that refuses to join the EU, Switzerland.

I think that the link should be reposted until everyone watched it.

https://vimeo.com/166378572

[Grouse]

Someone commented on how bad the UK was prior to joining the EEC, we had a labour government from 1964 the PM was Harold Wilson, he again won the next election two years later, the pound was devalued under the labour government whos socialist policies of spend spend spend caused them to go cap in hand to the IMF to borrow money to bail us out, the people rejected Labour at the next Election in 1970 and Edward Heath became PM, he took the UK into the EEC, the people paid him back at the next Election in 1974 when they brought Harold Wilson back, who stayed until 1979.

My thoughts are that Socialist policies were to blame for the problems of the sixties, tax the rich and give to the poor while on the surface seems like a noble thing to do actually stifles progress in business, and encourages laziness among the less well off, while the Conservative policies of work hard and reap the rewards brought about prosperity.

Jim Callaghan was at the controls when Thatcher came in.

Labour achieved some great things after the war including the NHS. Also strong technologically at the time - Concorde, TSR2, Post Office Tower for example. I think Thatcher was misguided in allowing manufacturing to slump from 25% of GDP to 10% just to pursue an arcane monitory policy.

UK seems to have done quite well economically in the last 25 years ( excluding the 2008 financial crisis)

In other ways, the country has gone to the dogs. Collapse of civil society generally. I feel the country has moved away from European social attitudes and moved closer to American ideas. Pity.

[cumgranosalum]

As recommended earlier, brexit the movie is well worth watching.

Especially with regard to the most successful and democratic country in Europe that refuses to join the EU, Switzerland.

I think that the link should be reposted until everyone watched it.

https://vimeo.com/166378572

switzerland didn't join the Common Market because they weren't ALLOWED to. They had a neutral status that prevented it.

far from being democratic, Switzerland in the 60s and 70s...even the 80s had the most awful labour camps for immigrant workers that they ruthlessly exploited until they were able to find work elsewhere in a more democratic EU that respected their human rights.

Edited May 14, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[SgtRock]

I note that Euro zone countries are now coming out of recession. Last Q exceeded USA growth.

Some green shoots at least ?

I also see that the IMF is wading in again with dire warnings

Maybe its my naivety, but I can not discount all of these experts as being Disengenuous.

Have you considered that these organisations are part of the establishment and that it may not be in their intrest to see the UK leave the EU.

From yesterday.

Eurozone growth revised down

Eurozone growth for the first quarter has been revised down slightly, to 0.5% from an initial estimate of 0.6%.

It followed 0.3% growth in the final quarter of 2015.

Annual growth slowed slightly, to 1.5% from 1.6% in the previous quarter.

It should also be noted that the major backer for Lagarde getting the top job at the IMF was none other than George Osborne.

A model institution of impartiality.

[cumgranosalum]

.

I am a British citizen, from generations of British parents/grand parents etc but raised in commonwealth Africa. From the age of 9, went to boarding school in Britain. Saw my first 'commonwealth' freind running a cornershop around 1978, saw my first non British football player around 1979 and since then (bear in mind, I have pretty much never lived in the UK) it has seriously gone down hill in my eyes. When the UK joined the EU I have no idea when, but everytime I do a 2 yearly visit to the place it gets worse. Maybe I'm getting on a bit or whatever but the 'Great' from Britain left a long long time ago. Time to get it back ..... if it is not too late.

Just MHO.

Before UK was in the EU, it was in a "commonwealth" - do you seriously think we can go back to that?

[Grouse]

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth

Fastest growth in a year

Not much but at least something positive

?

[Grouse]

For those who would like to know....

https://www.imf.org/external/about.htm

[Grouse]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/13/imf-warns-stock-market-crash-house-price-fall-eu-referendum-brexit

Here's the report from The Guardian

Bound to be shot down by The Brexiteers as being the voice of the establishment ?

[Grouse]

More economists saying Brexit will force major devaluation of the pound

All nonsense of course!

They're all in the establishments pocket

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/eu-referendum-top-economic-thinktank-warns-of-post-brexit-shocks

[Grouse]

damning indictment of Boris from The Independent

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnsons-blunders-have-damaged-the-leave-campaign-and-his-career-beyond-repair-a7028281.html

(Another establishment rag probably owned by Osborn - I better add that's a joke)

[Grouse]

Here's The Economist (more project fear pushers) on security considerations of Brexit

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21698629-britain-safer-european-union-outside-it-security-concerns

BTW one can access a limited number of articles on line at no charge.

[Orac]

As recommended earlier, brexit the movie is well worth watching.

Especially with regard to the most successful and democratic country in Europe that refuses to join the EU, Switzerland.

I think that the link should be reposted until everyone watched it.

https://vimeo.com/166378572

switzerland didn't join the Common Market because they weren't ALLOWED to. They had a neutral status that prevented it.

far from being democratic, Switzerland in the 60s and 70s...even the 80s had the most awful labour camps for immigrant workers that they ruthlessly exploited until they were able to find work elsewhere in a more democratic EU that respected their human rights.

I found the movie interesting and, as someone in the remain camp, quite persuasive. The problem to me is that the business case seems to be based on Thatcherite principals such as free trade, competition and deregulation.

Though i was a big fan of Lady Thatcher and her policies, they were unable to be carried out fully before and, even unshackled from EU regulations, I don't think the public at large would be able to stomach them under the circumstances that would prevail if we left the EU since it would need strong leadership and public unity to ride through the tough times in the short term to carry it through.

[Grouse]

This weeks Any Questions is worth listening to. Paddy Ashdown favours remain and Liam Fox favours Brexit. About 19.00 Thai time today I guess

Edited May 14, 2016 by Grouse

[BaldPlumber]

Democratic ratings 2014.

Norway first, Switzerland second

http://democracyranking.org/wordpress/rank/democracy-ranking-2015/

Edited May 14, 2016 by BaldPlumber

[Grouse]

Democratic ratings 2014.

Norway first, Switzerland second

http://democracyranking.org/wordpress/rank/democracy-ranking-2015/

Interesting! Looks like EU generally has the best democracies! What was the point again? Did I miss something? ?

[SgtRock]

I will check back in later to see what the next apocalyptic event is forecast to inflict the UK in the event it voted to leave the EU.