SCB sees state spending offsetting export doldrums to bring Thai economy up 2.5% this year

BANGKOK, 25 April 2016 (NNT) – Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) believes the Thai economy can still achieve 2 percent growth this year on government investment but notes worry towards the export sector.

Chief Economist and First Executive Vice President for the SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) Suthapha Amornwiwat has given her forecast for the Thai economy this year, pointing out it will continue to be weighed down by the slower than expected recovery of the world economy. She noted particularly that the US economy continues to be fragile and that stimulus measures in Europe and Japan have failed to hit their targets.

Suthpaha stated that changes to the structure of the Group of 20 nations’ economies are having a direct impact on Thailand’s exports and should result in it continuing its contraction by another 2 percent.

Nonetheless, the economist is optimistic that state investment will boost the economy during the latter half of the year, especially due to its focus on smaller businesses. She said analysts should watch major projects that have recently passed Cabinet approval, such as electric rail and motorway projects. She expects the overall economy to grow about 2.5 percent this year.


-- NNT 2016-04-25

Nonetheless, the economist is optimistic that state investment will boost the economy during the latter half of the year, especially due to its focus on smaller businesses.

In other words, you are doomed.

Beginning of 2016 the government was predicting 3.5-3.8% GDP growth for the year based largely on government spending and tourism. The drought has virtually negated any growth generated by increased tourism.

Now SCB predicts the overall economy to grow about 2.5% this year. In comparison, growth for 2015 was 2.5-2.8% (World Bank vs.Kasikorn Bank) before the massive government spending for 2016. The Thai economy is not recovering!

ASEAN as a whole expects GDP growth of 5%+ and the World Bank expects a world GDP growth rate of 2.9%. Thailand will become Asia's economic orphan for 2016.

And 2017 is not looking any better for Thailand. Prayut said the 2017 expenditure budget will be drafted with "stringency." It looks like he's not prepared to repeat the government's 2016 economic stimuli.

'Talk' of state spending...and we've had plenty of that, is one thing but dirt flying is another.

Nonetheless, the economist is optimistic that state investment will boost the economy during the latter half of the year, especially due to its focus on smaller businesses.

In other words, you are doomed.

Railways......high speed trains....highways and roads......but where's the commissions?.

Only a few days ago it was predicted the GDP would fall below 2% to about 1.8%. Now bingo after some negative comments it soars back to around 2.5%. Amazing how critical comment can reverse the economic trend. if there is a La La Land in this world it is Thailand.