Bruising battle ahead in vote that will shape US world role

webfact · May 9, 2016

Bruising battle ahead in vote that will shape US world role
MATTHEW PENNINGTON, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — With six months to go, the U.S. election campaign has boiled down to an unprecedented contest that could transform America's role in the world. Democrat Hillary Clinton, a fixture on the political stage for a quarter-century, is set to face Donald Trump, a brash billionaire real estate mogul who has never held elected office.

The story so far has been one few could have predicted, in which a TV reality star reviled by the Republican Party establishment now has a clear shot at the presidency against the Democratic heir apparent. It promises to be a bitter and unpredictable contest between candidates with starkly different visions for America and its international relations. The future of U.S. immigration laws, military posture and trade policy are at stake.

Here's a look at key questions about the campaign and how the Nov. 8 vote could affect the world:

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How did Trump become presumptive Republican nominee?

Few gave Trump a chance of success when he declared his candidacy last June. Rivals for the Republican nomination underestimated his appeal and spared him attacks. Yet as Trump's over-the-top persona and outrageous commentary attracted blanket media coverage, he quickly emerged as the front-runner. He was the most entertaining of the 17 candidates, and appealed to Republican voters disaffected by Washington politics. He tapped into popular anger, particularly among working-class white Americans roused by his blunt talk on stagnant wages, illegal immigration and terrorism. His appeal has not been dented by his disparaging remarks about women, or by international condemnation of his proposals for a wall along the Mexico border and a ban on foreign-born Muslims from entering the U.S.

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Is Clinton destined to win the presidency?

This is Clinton's second presidential bid after losing the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama in 2008. If she secures the nomination, which seems near-certain, she would enjoy significant advantages over Trump. An Associated Press-GfK poll last month showed that while 55 percent of Americans said they had a negative opinion of Clinton, 69 percent said the same of Trump. The Republican's populist message may appeal to some blue-collar workers, including some Democrats, but he has offended many and polls badly among female voters and Hispanics.

Clinton has her own problems. The anti-establishment sentiment that has fueled Trump's rise goes beyond Republicans. Long seen as a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination, she has struggled to shake off a challenge from veteran lawmaker Bernie Sanders, who has had surprising success for a socialist candidate in the U.S. He has attacked Clinton's ties to Wall Street and previous support for free trade deals, winning a passionate following, especially among young voters. A controversy over Clinton's use of a private email server when she ran the State Department has added to perceptions that she is untrustworthy.

The electoral math favors Clinton. U.S. presidential elections are decided not by the popular vote, but by a state-by-state count of electoral votes. Most of the 50 states are predictably Democratic or Republican, so the race can turn on the results in a dozen or so "swing states," that are less predictable. Democrats had the advantage in those states in the past two elections. Trump maintains his candidacy can shake up the political map, although he lacks solid backing of his own party for fundraising and getting out the vote. Still, few thought he could win the nomination, so it shouldn't be assumed he can't win the presidency.

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How do Trump and Clinton differ on foreign policy?

Clinton served as Obama's first secretary of state. She was an architect of administration's strategic push in Asia, and instrumental in bringing Iran to the negotiating table to rein in its nuclear program. The world powers that most challenge U.S. global pre-eminence, China and Russia, have become more assertive during Obama's second term, and chaos in the Mideast has intensified. Clinton is seen as more hawkish than Obama, but is unlikely to deviate significantly from current U.S. foreign policy. One area where she publicly differs with Obama is on trade . Candidate Clinton has opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade pact that she promoted when she was top diplomat.

As with domestic policy, Trump is a wild card. Presidential candidates routinely talk tougher on the campaign trail than in office — and Trump is notoriously flip in his remarks — but his proposals could cause ructions. He has threatened punitive taxes on Chinese imports which could set off a trade war between the world's two biggest economies. He says TPP is a "disaster." More controversially, he has questioned long-standing U.S. alliances in Asia and Europe. He says Japan and South Korea don't pay enough for U.S. military protection and has suggested they could get nuclear weapons so they rely less on America for defense. He's also said that the NATO alliance is obsolete and he'd have no problem if it broke up.

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Will a Clinton-Trump contest be as angry and confrontational as the Republican primary campaign has been?

Trump's rhetoric and tough positions on hot-button issues have had shock value, and fueled confrontation at his rallies. But the most indelible mark he's made on the campaign has been his put-downs of political rivals. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the brother of former President George W. Bush, was tagged as "low-energy." The arch-conservative Texas Sen. Ted Cruz was labeled as "lyin'''. The trash-talk has often been outlandish. Last week, Trump floated an unsubstantiated claim that Cruz's father appeared in a 1963 photograph with John F. Kennedy's assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald - citing a report first published by the freewheeling tabloid the National Enquirer.

Trump has already taken at aim Clinton. He branded her husband, former President Bill Clinton, as a sexual predator, and labeled Hillary Clinton "disgusting" for returning late from the restroom during a commercial break of a Democratic debate. He's repeatedly charged that she lacks "stamina" — although she traveled nearly 1 million miles while secretary of state. Most provocatively, he contends that she's relying on "the woman's card" for her presidential bid.

There's little reason to expect that Trump will ease up on the insults. How the more cautious Clinton responds is unclear. She's likely to drill down over Trump's suitability for office. She has called him a "loose cannon" and a "blustering, bullying guy." She has also said his anti-Muslim statements make him the "best recruiter" for the Islamic State group.

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What happens next in the election campaign?

Both parties formalize their presidential nominations at conventions in the second half of July. The last of Trump's rivals bowed out last week, leaving no contest, but the Republican convention will be closely watched to see whether party leaders will swallow their pride and rally behind him. Clinton has yet to see off the challenge from Sanders, but she's virtually assured of securing the majority of Democratic Party delegates who determine the nomination. She'll have to win over Sanders' supporters but faces a far easier task than Trump in unifying her party. Each candidate must also choose a vice presidential running mate before the conventions.

-- (c) Associated Press 2016-05-09

trogers · May 9, 2016

We shall issue more debt papers to shape the world...

craigt3365 · May 9, 2016

That's not what Trump is proposing. Hillary? Probably!

Emster23 · May 9, 2016

Can't really discuss Trump's proposed policies, as he has none, other than be 'unpredictable". So choice is between Hillary who tells truth 51% of the time versus Trump who tells it 9% of the time. (See politifact site for confirmation)

Nasrullah · May 9, 2016

i'll vote for the nominee that tells the truth 40% of the time then

Jingthing · May 9, 2016

I think most decent Americans are embarrassed that one of our two major parties (out of two total) has nominated a bombastic psychopathic demagogue that appeals to the most vile of American demographics ... xenophobic, racist (white supremacist), and misogynist. Really, this is a total horror show. If international people can find a way to help Americans defeat this potential evil upon the land and the world, by all means -- HELP!

uptheos · May 9, 2016

I don't think 'international people' give a toss who you choose, the whole presidential process is a circus.

Jingthing · May 9, 2016

When the U.S. get a cold, the world gets pneumonia.

Trump is more like pancreatic cancer.

NovaBlue05 · May 9, 2016

She would add another $10T of debt in 4 years....some of it laundered through the Clinton Foundation

Jingthing · May 9, 2016

I'm pretty sure most people in the world, outside of perhaps Russia, that are following this U.S. election see that Trump is a horrible dog of a choice. So I'm wondering if there is anything international people can do to help stop him that wouldn't backfire? In other words, it would need to be under the radar.

johnatong · May 9, 2016

Why would anyone wish to stop a man on a mission to save America ?

DT speaks with the peoples voice !

NeverSure · May 9, 2016

Such drama. "Help" is spelled "President Trump". The country is going down the shitter. It needs a CEO. That ain't Hillary, it's Trump and the people know it.

Actual quote from the opposition genius:

AYJAYDEE · May 9, 2016

A CEO who is consistently required to remove himself from management after the restructuring of the companies he bankrupts!! sounds promising!!

NovaBlue05 · May 10, 2016

He must have won a more than he lost. That alone would be quite a departure from what we have experienced with the Oligarch's status quo

NovaBlue05 · May 10, 2016

Sure, she may have set everything she touched on fire as SoS......BUT....She is a woman allegedly and that's what the Party wants this time!

AYJAYDEE · May 10, 2016

well he didnt. he lost borrowed money, just like a politician!

arjunadawn · May 10, 2016

This OP entirely through me off. "...a TV reality star reviled by the Republican Party establishment now has a clear shot at the presidency against the Democratic heir apparent..."

Obama is not running against Hillary. Besides, he does not have a clear shot at anything... he cannot run again!

arjunadawn · May 10, 2016

Jeez. Fewer things should flush the toilet then this quote. Unbelievable. It is Orwellian and worse, unlike 1984, people today actually believe she has declared something.

arjunadawn · May 10, 2016

Invested money. They had a choice.

The world of Equality in Outcomes, so central to Hillary and Sanders supporters, is a fantasy that only exists by government coercion.

Jingthing · May 10, 2016

Sounds like a brain fart. You can find 100 Trump inanities for each Hillary one. So give it a rest. Nobody is going to change their vote over something Hillary said when she was obviously tired or something. Duh!

johnatong · May 10, 2016

You Americans will get the POTUS you deserve !

Looking from the outside it would seem you have a Great choice ! Either will be disastrous !

AYJAYDEE · May 10, 2016

thats the point ! thebuffoon cant run a business to save his soul but he doesnt really care because its some other suckers money. kinda like politicians wasting taxpayers money!! sound familiar?? lol

Publicus · May 10, 2016

It's a hellovalot better than dictatorship.

And anyone who might think USA is a dictatorship would be a whackjob.

A Republic finds its own level and people everywhere will find in the November voting that the USA level is well above that of Donald Trump and his limited number of crackpot fans.

AYJAYDEE · May 10, 2016

its a corporate oligarchy. super delegates?? lol

Publicus · May 10, 2016

No surprise the far out rightwhinge is off.

Always.

Publicus · May 10, 2016

Popularly callled 'super delegates' are almost all elected officials local, state, federal.

It's called democracy.

USA democracy guarantees free speech to include comedians who specialise in one-liners.

Carry on.

Emster23 · May 11, 2016

There is nothing in democracy that requires best choice, or even good choice. This election confirms that.

derator01 · May 11, 2016

Please stick to the topic.

up2u2 · May 11, 2016

I am absolutely in no doubt the entire world's Nations have made their position very clear if Trump is elected and it isn't good. Through confidential diplomatic channels of course. America will be 'noddy no friends'. Cannot see ANY Nation following America into the dark abyss that is Trump. Many Nations learnt a very good lesson following that fool W Bush's lead. What a mess. Obama has largely restored the Worlds confidence in America and its course but Trump would be quarantined like an Ebola outbreak.

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