TDRI: Thailand will get out of middle income trap in 20 years

[webfact]

TDRI: Thailand will get out of middle income trap in 20 years



BANGKOK: -- Thailand will overcome middle income trap in the next 20 years but it will become a country which gets old before it gets rich, said Ms Kirida Paopichit, director of research and international counseling of Thailand Development Research Institute, at a seminar on “New Normal of Future Thai Economy”.

She said that if Thailand’s economy continues to expand steadily at about 3.5 percent rate as it is the case today and if there are no structural economic adjustments in correspondence with global changes, the chance is that the country will take about 20 years to escape from middle income trap.

In other words, she noted that Thailand will become an ageing country before it ever gets rich.

Mr Pipat Luangnarumitchai, assistant managing director of Pathara Securities Company, painted a gloomy outlook for Thailand in the future with more old people, declining natural resources, less working people, low productivity and steadily declining growth rate if there are no major adjustments to the economy.

Changes are inevitable but what we should do is to get prepared and to cope with the changes by making use of information, being innovative and cooperating with countries in the region as a grouping, said Mr Prakit Narongtanupol, managing director of Thai Rungruang Plastic Industry.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/content/164784


-- Thai PBS 2016-05-26

[EricBerg]

blah blah blah

The Kingdom has far too many organisations and institutes predicting the future of economic developments and explaining the present ones. Why can't these people start doing something useful? It would save big bundles of salaries waisted on talking crap. Perhaps use article 44 to make them volunteers at dangerous railway crossings? It's just an idea, no offense meant.

[thesetat2013]

How do they expect things to improve in 20 years when they are claiming at the same time about lack of productivity. Do they really think the next generation of kids is going to make things better when clearly this generation is already showing the opposite and education is still a joke and even testing for specialized fields are being made easier to pass? They can claim it will be better all they want but in the end it will never happen because no actions are taken to seriously address the youths now to improve. In fact, they are doing just the opposite.

[alant]

The economy will be just fine as long as jobs are reserved for Thais only, even if there are no Thai workers to do the job.

[Jimbo2014]

There are serious problems ahead. Unless the thai government encourages immigration (unlikely with the present Xenophobia). Demographic problems as bad or worse than Japan.

[williamgeorgeallen]

well according to this thailand has a birth rate of 1.5 babies per female.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN

well below the 2.15 need to maintain the population level. this will weigh heavily on thailands economy over the coming years as the young have to support the retired population. of course a well run immigration program can easily fix this but i can see it being implemented any time soon.

[Srikcir]

the chance is that the country will take about 20 years to escape from middle income trap.

In terms of statistics, anything is possible but it is the PROBABILITY of chance that determines the predictability of an event.

If for the sake of argument Thailand's current GDP growth rate is 3.5% (based solely on one quarter and contradicted by both government and academic sources), such a growth rate has been driven largely by a costly government economic stimulus. It is unlikely the government can continue such an investment and accompanying debt beyond fiscal year 2017 regardless of whether the government is controlled by the military of elected officials. Therefore, the current grwoth rate is practically artifical and not representative of a sustainable economy.

Furthermore, support for continued 3.5% growth is based on an expansive assumption that there are no structural economic adjustments in correspondence with global changes. What are the odds for such a static global economic condition, not to mention domestic political stability?

So yes, there is a chance for Thailand to leave the middle income trap in 20 years - but at 20:1 odds?

[Emster23]

One way to get rid of middle income trap is to get rid of middle class with middle income. Problem solved!

[sanukjim]

Until Thailand has a TRUE constitution "That is not changed at ever change of government) That has a basic of laws and the leaders willing to keep at least one hand out of the till and the so called elite forced to pay taxes with real reporting .This will continue to be a very rich with their own laws and the very poor having to do what they can to get by with a few middle class of workers propping up the rest of the economy.Out side of a nuclear event here wiping out most of the adult people Thailand will never change in 100 years.Now a take over via a communist ruled country with it's strong leadership could in about 5 to 7 years change Thailand for the better.Hey Vietnam ,China where are you ? We need you now.

[Srikcir]

if Thailand’s economy continues to expand steadily at about 3.5 percent rate as it is the case today ... the country will take about 20 years to escape from middle income trap.

Flashback to October 2014^*:

TDRI Researcher Nonarit Bisonyabut said, "Thailand is at risk of remaining in the middle-income trap for at least another 20 years, despite a likely compound growth rate of 4-5 per cent per year"

As a matter of record Thailand experienced significantly lower growth rates in 2014 and 2015 than 3.5-5%. So it looks like TDRI is just adjusting its predictions so as not to embarrass current government efforts to address the issue.

^{* http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Thailand-stuck-in-middle-income-trap-30245212.html}

[Tomtomtom69]

There are serious problems ahead. Unless the thai government encourages immigration (unlikely with the present Xenophobia). Demographic problems as bad or worse than Japan.

First of all, it's easier to migrate to Thailand than to Japan.

Secondly, immigration isn't the ultimate answer - xenophobia isn't the main reason why immigration to Thailand isn't encouraged, but rather, what can foreigners contribute to Thai society? There would be a lot of concern about the resources needed to integrate foreigners into Thai society. I would welcome a program that encourages high skilled, high net worth immigrants under the age of 45-50 who can contribute towards bringing skills and jobs to the Thai economy, but a western country mass immigration style system would destroy the culture, increase crime and make the country more third world, not less.

The Thai government should consider bringing in a baby bonus for each child that is born, encouraging all Thais to have 2-3 children. The large numbers of homosexuals and transsexuals is another reason why the Thai birth rate is so low.

[wabothai]

blah blah blah

The Kingdom has far too many organisations and institutes predicting the future of economic developments and explaining the present ones. Why can't these people start doing something useful? It would save big bundles of salaries waisted on talking crap. Perhaps use article 44 to make them volunteers at dangerous railway crossings? It's just an idea, no offense meant.

It is easier than taking responsibility.

[Redline]

Concrete action is necessary. This could be a great country. They should ask Singapore, Japan and South Korea for help....

[marcusd]

There are serious problems ahead. Unless the thai government encourages immigration (unlikely with the present Xenophobia). Demographic problems as bad or worse than Japan.

First of all, it's easier to migrate to Thailand than to Japan.

Secondly, immigration isn't the ultimate answer - xenophobia isn't the main reason why immigration to Thailand isn't encouraged, but rather, what can foreigners contribute to Thai society? There would be a lot of concern about the resources needed to integrate foreigners into Thai society. I would welcome a program that encourages high skilled, high net worth immigrants under the age of 45-50 who can contribute towards bringing skills and jobs to the Thai economy, but a western country mass immigration style system would destroy the culture, increase crime and make the country more third world, not less.

The Thai government should consider bringing in a baby bonus for each child that is born, encouraging all Thais to have 2-3 children. The large numbers of homosexuals and transsexuals is another reason why the Thai birth rate is so low.

Tomtom are you smoking weed? Sorry but some of your posts are great but... man o man!

Quote Singapore = foreigners

Hong Kong = Foreigners

Philippines = foreigners

Taiwan same

And many other examples and Vietnam now too

They are not destroyed!

Thailand is loved by us yet we are being exploited, ripped off, treated like scoundrels more and more.

Is this helping Thailand? NO WAY from my perspective.

Other counties have huge expat populations on LOWER wages and high skill-sets to no disadvantage of the locals or the nation they are in.

As to your quote "The large numbers of homosexuals and transsexuals is another reason why the Thai birth rate is so low" maybe mother nature is saying something here????

Survival of the fittest perhaps? Darwin ring a bell?