New Brexit polls suggest shift in favour of leaving the EU

[cumgranosalum]

It's 2235 UK time. Reports state Farage concedes the vote, the loss. I was quite keen that UK Leave. Seems Remain won. A few points:

I think this vote choice is a terrible error and a unique opportunity like this may never present again. But, it was certainly voted openly and with interest. It may have been provoked from both sides but I think it was a fair vote. So. It's done!

This was difficult for people on both sides and it seemed their nation was seriously injured by the process; maybe. I think though that something quite democratic was evidenced in the process. And this is the most ironic part of this- the Remain is essentially a vote for the anti democratic! No question about that. This will be a curious historical artifact- that Brits used a single democratic silver bullet to vote for anti democracy. My point will be proven sooner rather then later.

I hope UK can unite and move on toward the future both sides claimed they commanded. Good luck UK. Wish you peace and prosperity.

"It's 2235 UK time. Reports state Farage concedes the vote, the loss." - really what does he know that the rest of us don't?

[Thaiwine]

I don't really have a dog in this fight, I have never been an anglophile, and, in general, I am not opposed to people leaving their homeland to live and work in another country - I've done it several times. However, what I see here is about one-third of the population of North Africa and the ME trying to cross the Mediterranean and invade Europe. They bring with them an economy-burdening poverty and a hostile culture that dilutes the indigenous culture to the point that, were it not recorded in literature and academia, it would no longer be recognizable. European families, in general, have taken responsible steps to voluntarily limit population increases through reproduction. Third world countries from Africa and Asia continue to produce large families to increase the number of workers in their units and to guarantee security for the elderly. That, coupled with the technology compassionately offered from the west, has increased the survival rate of their citizenry but it has not increased the economic opportunities to enjoy the out-of-reach living standards in Europe as witnessed by them in the media.

Compassion is an admirable trait, especially when exercised by nations with the support of their people. But in the modern world it is rapidly becoming a means of enabling that encourages people to leave their countries instead of struggling to fix them. Unless there is a radical change in the EU policy vis-a-vis immigration, continued membership in that organization will result in the accelerated dismantling of the UK.

The British Empire is long gone. It is time for the British people to expiate itself of the guilt for sins it committed during that era and function again as a cohesive, focused unit the way it did during its heroic days of the early 1940s. That cannot happen if it continues to carry the burdens imposed by continued membership in EU.

The EU has many problems but for 70 years Europeans have not slaughtered each other.

We can thank EU for that.

Or we can risk another Somme, Paschendale, Flanders, Normandy, Auschwitz, and Berlin. The refugees are small beer by comparison to those horrors..

So if the UK leaves the EU who do you think may make war on who. and how will the UK remaining in the EU make a difference?

Well the first thing that springs to mind is that the Northern Ireland peace agreement has EU membership as part of the agreement.

at present, wars are fought over oil, in the future it will be water and other resources. UK normally gets involved after having signed agreements (ententes) with other nations...in the next 10 years there could be a lot of new treaties signed and the UK could find itself having to protect its interests in all sorts of places we'd never even dreamed of in the EU.

We've had war in Europe out side the EU in very recent years, and if the EU starts to crack there is no guarantee countries won't drift that way again.

I can't comment on Northern Ireland as I don't know.

I'm not sure current wars in the middle east are about oil, the stable middle eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain etc can supply all the wests needs, plus there are other sources south America etc, water wars etc are supposition, we are a part of Nato and should limit ourselves getting into other peoples wars.

True there has been wars in Europe before and there is no guarantee that there will be again if we revert back to individual nations, who rely on each other to trade and bring wealth to each others countries.

[happy Joe]

My wife and I headed on down to the local Methodist Church this evening and duly posted two leave votes.

I'm more interested in this referendum than any other political event in my lifetime.

Tomorrow will be interesting.

How does it feel to be on the losing side?

Give us your essetial impressions tomorrow, huh ...

[Laughing Gravy]

I don't really have a dog in this fight, I have never been an anglophile, and, in general, I am not opposed to people leaving their homeland to live and work in another country - I've done it several times. However, what I see here is about one-third of the population of North Africa and the ME trying to cross the Mediterranean and invade Europe. They bring with them an economy-burdening poverty and a hostile culture that dilutes the indigenous culture to the point that, were it not recorded in literature and academia, it would no longer be recognizable. European families, in general, have taken responsible steps to voluntarily limit population increases through reproduction. Third world countries from Africa and Asia continue to produce large families to increase the number of workers in their units and to guarantee security for the elderly. That, coupled with the technology compassionately offered from the west, has increased the survival rate of their citizenry but it has not increased the economic opportunities to enjoy the out-of-reach living standards in Europe as witnessed by them in the media.

Compassion is an admirable trait, especially when exercised by nations with the support of their people. But in the modern world it is rapidly becoming a means of enabling that encourages people to leave their countries instead of struggling to fix them. Unless there is a radical change in the EU policy vis-a-vis immigration, continued membership in that organization will result in the accelerated dismantling of the UK.

The British Empire is long gone. It is time for the British people to expiate itself of the guilt for sins it committed during that era and function again as a cohesive, focused unit the way it did during its heroic days of the early 1940s. That cannot happen if it continues to carry the burdens imposed by continued membership in EU.

The EU has many problems but for 70 years Europeans have not slaughtered each other.

We can thank EU for that.

Or we can risk another Somme, Paschendale, Flanders, Normandy, Auschwitz, and Berlin. The refugees are small beer by comparison to those horrors..

So what was Serbia and Croatia about? It was hardly a punch up in the park. It was genocide.. Also in or joining the EU.

[chiang mai]

A big one and a half cent jump in GBP/USD around 11pm, up around 1.496 currently, presumably the private post vote polls are all very supportive of Remain. Maybe not, more likely the markets are simply making hay, now down one and a half cents! Where is that fat lady.

Telegraph calls it 95.9% Remain currently.

Farage has conceded and Boris privately has admitted defeat, despite only 0.3% of results having been announced, presumably he has seen the private post vote poll results also - is that what the picture looks like, seems so to me?

Edited June 23, 2016 by chiang mai

[cumgranosalum]

Johnny Vegas - "leaving Europe is like telling your parents you want independence and then you move into the garage"

[cumgranosalum]

A big one and a half cent jump in GBP/USD around 11pm, up around 1.496 currently, presumably the private post vote polls are all very supportive of Remain. Maybe not, more likely the markets are simply making hay, now down one and a half cents! Where is that fat lady.

Telegraph calls it 95.9% Remain currently.

Farage has conceded and Boris privately has admitted defeat, despite only 0.3% of results having been announced, presumably he has seen the private post vote poll results also - is that what the picture looks like, seems so to me?

Well, to take Farage at his word would be questionable by any standards - of course imagine his delight later is he is proved wrong - basically it is a win / win statement - either he looks good a prediction or he can slag of the pollsters later.

[cumgranosalum]

The EU has many problems but for 70 years Europeans have not slaughtered each other.

We can thank EU for that.

Or we can risk another Somme, Paschendale, Flanders, Normandy, Auschwitz, and Berlin. The refugees are small beer by comparison to those horrors..

So if the UK leaves the EU who do you think may make war on who. and how will the UK remaining in the EU make a difference?

Well the first thing that springs to mind is that the Northern Ireland peace agreement has EU membership as part of the agreement.

at present, wars are fought over oil, in the future it will be water and other resources. UK normally gets involved after having signed agreements (ententes) with other nations...in the next 10 years there could be a lot of new treaties signed and the UK could find itself having to protect its interests in all sorts of places we'd never even dreamed of in the EU.

We've had war in Europe out side the EU in very recent years, and if the EU starts to crack there is no guarantee countries won't drift that way again.

I can't comment on Northern Ireland as I don't know.

I'm not sure current wars in the middle east are about oil, the stable middle eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain etc can supply all the wests needs, plus there are other sources south America etc, water wars etc are supposition, we are a part of Nato and should limit ourselves getting into other peoples wars.

True there has been wars in Europe before and there is no guarantee that there will be again if we revert back to individual nations, who rely on each other to trade and bring wealth to each others countries.

"don"t know" , "not sure" - why not slect a topic you understand before commenting?

[Laughing Gravy]

Well no matter what happens the leave have done some good. They have highlighted the fact that the EU is undemocratic and that the UK people really didn't know much about it. Now they do. If the leave fails to win and I am not saying they will but if. The rest of the EU countries will also want a referendum. The EU in my opinion is finished it is just a matter of when or how. The economics of the EU is unsustainable.

Due to this referendum people will be more aware of what Brussels is doing, so don't be surprised of more backlash than ever before.

It has also shown me just how the UK people, especially the younger generation are and how little faith and confidence they have in themselves to govern themselves. I am less than impressed with man of them who are lack luster, work shy and lack the drive to carry out jobs. They are more interested in mobile phone bills and travelling to Benidorm than having control of their country. The younger generation or x factor/pop culture have role models such as Katie Price. footballers and pop stars which are hardly inspiring. The youth in general can't string a conversation together, write a story (unless in text) or get out of bed early. the pride of having a job, yes any job has gone. What is wrong with cleaning, working in a factory etc. One time it was a honour to get a job and what made the working class proud. Now unless the younger generation are earning top money they would rather fester in bed and claim benefits. They also feel and believe the world owes them a living. Obviously not everyone before people start shouting but certainly many. I see for myself e everyday. Even young professionals can't pick a piece of paper off the ground or move table because well its not in my job description. They would rather wait 10 minutes for someone else to do it for them.

So I will not be surprised if we remain in the EU. The establishment were hardly going to let it go away that easily, although it is not over yet.. As I will probably never live in the UK again, you could say well why worry. I do worry as the vote was for the future and the younger generation. I feel sorry for those who have the drive determination and backbone to see that the UK would have ben better on its own and see the corruption and control of the EU. At least if I ever get asked in the future by the generation below, "was I one of those people who voted in and let the country go down the pan" I can proudly say "No. never".

[chiang mai]

A big one and a half cent jump in GBP/USD around 11pm, up around 1.496 currently, presumably the private post vote polls are all very supportive of Remain. Maybe not, more likely the markets are simply making hay, now down one and a half cents! Where is that fat lady.

Telegraph calls it 95.9% Remain currently.

Farage has conceded and Boris privately has admitted defeat, despite only 0.3% of results having been announced, presumably he has seen the private post vote poll results also - is that what the picture looks like, seems so to me?

Well, to take Farage at his word would be questionable by any standards - of course imagine his delight later is he is proved wrong - basically it is a win / win statement - either he looks good a prediction or he can slag of the pollsters later.

Farage now denying he's conceded, he merely said "remain will edge it".

Newcastle votes 51% remain and Sterling falls on the news - I guess markets were looking for a bigger percentage.

Orkney at 63% Remain, Gibraltar at 93% Remain, no surprises there.

Overall, 57% Remain to 43% Leave.

Edited June 23, 2016 by chiang mai

[MJP]

[cumgranosalum]

Some people will make a lot of money tonight.....the Sunderland vote was expected to be "out" but was this more than expected?

[SgtRock]

5 results declared. No shocks.

Leave slightly ahead.

[brewsterbudgen]

No shocks? It is looking far more likely to be Brexit now. The £ is tumbling.

[SgtRock]

No shocks? It is looking far more likely to be Brexit now. The £ is tumbling.

I was referring to predicted voting patterns.

Judging by comments on various news sources. It does seem that the remain camp are currently very worried.

[cumgranosalum]

If Brexit wins - the immediate effects are already being seen - turmoil on international markets - the real effects won't appear for 2 to 5 years - way beyond the vision of most of those voting to leave.

[anotheruser]

pound drops 6%

[MJP]

Switzerland pulled its EU application last week.

Brexit this week.

Dutch referendum to be announced tomorrow.

[webfact]

LONDON (AP) - British pound sheds earlier gains in volatile trading as early results from EU vote come in.

[brewsterbudgen]

Sterling down 6%

[SgtRock]

Switzerland pulled its EU application last week.

Brexit this week.

Dutch referendum to be announced tomorrow.

Quickly followed by Sweden.

[Naam]

pound drops 6%

shorters' squeeze over, business as usual.

[Laughing Gravy]

If Brexit wins - the immediate effects are already being seen - turmoil on international markets - the real effects won't appear for 2 to 5 years - way beyond the vision of most of those voting to leave.

I just don't agree with that long forecast prediction. Markets can change for many, many reasons. The UK are not in the euro so lots of factors can effect the market. Greece and Spain will do far more damage in that period with even others such as Italy. Once the domino starts they will all go. It will not be Brexit as the cause if it happens.

[MJP]

Switzerland pulled its EU application last week.

Brexit this week.

Dutch referendum to be announced tomorrow.

Quickly followed by Sweden.

France too!

[Naam]

Switzerland pulled its EU application last week.

Brexit this week.

Dutch referendum to be announced tomorrow.

Quickly followed by Sweden.

Tajikistan submits application to join EU.

[SgtRock]

Switzerland pulled its EU application last week.

Brexit this week.

Dutch referendum to be announced tomorrow.

Quickly followed by Sweden.

Tajikistan submits application to join EU.

As many on here said, there was many things being withheld until after the referendum.

Here is one of them.

BRUSSELS: -- Turkey has confirmed that a fresh chapter of negotiations on EU membership will open on June 30.

Foreign Affairs Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told the press he will travel to Brussels for talks with EU Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans.

Chapter 33 focuses on budgetary and financial questions.

Turkish officials say they will also discuss the slow pace of the visa-free plan for Turkish nationals to enter the EU’s Schengen zone.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/927206-turkey-announces-fresh-round-of-eu-talks/

[SgtRock]

Prof John Curtice has told the BBC that turnout in London seems to be 2 or 3% lower than expected, based on figures in so far. That might be the result of terrible rain we had in the capital. If so, this is bad for remain, which counts London as a stronghold.

Make of that what you will.

[WhamBam]

5 results declared. No shocks.

Leave slightly ahead.

Kettering 61 Leave 39 Remain that is MASSIVE

But a long way to go and when including scotland it is less certain for either side

Edited June 24, 2016 by WhamBam

[chiang mai]

Pound takes a tumble, down to 1.45 on the back of better than expected results in the North East. Markets say loads of people now gambling on Leave.

Telegraph now puts Leave on 54% to Remains 46% with only 2.5% of the counting completed.

The best thing to do is go back to bed and look again in a few hours, these swings are going to be an ongoing feature.

Bloombergs blow by blow is pretty good at reporting relevance:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2016-05-05/brexit-live-results-of-uk-s-eu-referendum

Edited June 24, 2016 by chiang mai

[WhamBam]

With South Tyneside 62% Leave 38% remain.

The early voting must have Remain very worried indeed.

This is going to be a long night for some - me included.

Edited June 24, 2016 by WhamBam