Is the Thai economy collapsing?

[thaibeachlovers]

Where I live ( small town, no farang tourists ) I notice that over the past 10 months several long established small businesses ( mom and pop shops, restaurants, IT places ) have closed. That is just between the house and the IT place I use ( 2 minute drive ). Is this because of the economy, or just co incidence, in your opinion?

[Agent Sumo]

If you listen to the dopes on TV, the fact that a few skint European tourists go to Cambo or Burma because beer prices in Thailand have risen by 20 baht is tantamount to a deep and damaging recession.

They think their "family" shopping excursions at Big C to buy bright pastel-coloured, Chinese-made plastic crap are the absolute bedrock of the Thai consumer revolution

Seriously, though, the economy is doing fine.

Hardly great guns but it's doing fine.

[Rayk]

If you listen to the dopes on TV, the fact that a few skint European tourists go to Cambo or Burma because beer prices in Thailand have risen by 20 baht is tantamount to a deep and damaging recession.

They think their "family" shopping excursions at Big C to buy bright pastel-coloured, Chinese-made plastic crap are the absolute bedrock of the Thai consumer revolution

Seriously, though, the economy is doing fine.

Hardly great guns but it's doing fine.

"Seriously, though, the economy is doing fine."

And you can support your statement with facts and links?

[joeyg]

I am not a golfer. However my buddy in Bangkok is. I met up with him not long ago in the club house of one the golf courses there. He just finished playing a 'round with one of the top CEO's of CP group and we all had a drink together.

My buddy asked him how business was. His answer, "Business is in the toilet, we've never seen it so bad." I also have a friend in Pattaya that has car rental agencies, 3 to be exact. Another Is a landscape architect, another involved in perfume manufacturing, large scale green house fabrication, etc etc. Everyone says basically the same.

The guy who owns the car rental agency says newly renovated business are folding left and right in Na Jomtien.

On paper I thought the Thai economy didn't look to bad, all things considered. Guess I'll take another look...

almost two years old still a good read http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/10/thailands-economy

April 2016 sounds promising? http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand/overview

hummm about a year ago... http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Thai-economy-to-strengthen-in-2016-17-World-Bank-30262138.html

[gandalf12]

The economy is in a bit of a mess for sure but no more than many Western countries

[mcfish]

Most Thais think you just need to start a business , open the doors and the money rolls on in. The reality is they run it into the ground over a year draining family and farang finances and disappear to be quickly replaced by the next in line. Ive lost count of these type of small business around me in Bangkok that turn over sometimes 4 in a year...same shop

More to do with zero research and experience than a collapsed economy

Edited July 19, 2016 by mcfish

[MissAndry]

A nice new coffee shop has opened near me. I'm their only customer in the 2 weeks they have been open.

I hope they last 2 months, because it's a really nice place and only 30bht for a cup.

[mania]

One thing I really notice with these types of things is they are always delayed a bit

Meaning yes I think the Thai economy is diving but not near bottom at all yet

Things like the take over of the govt will have an effect no matter what they would like you to believe.

But it takes time...Companies of size that invested here cannot just leave suddenly. But when they see

the possible fragility of their position you can bet they have started to make plans & are moving in other directions

albeit while keeping an eye on the condition here

The other thing which is similar to what happened in other countries was the irrational exuberance preceding even the take over...

The propped rice prices...The 100k rebate to buy a car which got many buying cars who would not have...

all on loans of course ..Which later collapsed & also stole future sales from the next year

Condo's, gated moobahns & Malls anyone? Have you ever seen so many built like have been built in the last 4-5 years?

This has much to do with the mom & pop places closing too

Many empty now other have vendors hanging on with no real customers except the air con walkers or eaters.

So irrational exuberance I think it was because who were going to be all the buyers/customer?

Did Thai's all get increased incomes? Aside from the paltry non-enforced min wage rise?

Is tourism really going to build in a Martial Law land? New factories from other countries want to build under these same conditions?

Would You invest billions now if you were Ford,Toyota etc?

Lastly a really sad thing I see a lot of is lack of business plans from the younger folks.

Bless their hearts for trying but what Miss Andy mentioned above I see every month New little shop always decked

out with improvements to building initially before earning a $1 Then 3 months later gone!

What kind of pro forma did they do? Any business plan at all? ...Trend Analysis?

Or just ...hey this looks like a good franchise/idea Yeah I see a lot of signs that may take a little longer to complete but they do not look good.

They will survive of course but these things take time to wind up & then wind down The lack of an elected govt is a big hump in this road too

Edited July 19, 2016 by mania

[hohososo]

When I first arrived in Thailand two years ago, the economy appeared to be humming along fine to me.

Then I realized it is all a debt funded facade.

If rates ever go higher, the economy is screwed as the banks will be screwed due to delinquent debts.

At least folks in the west with huge mortgages tend to win due to appreciation.

My experience here suggests that Thais lever up and buy depreciating assets such cars or real estate.

[lungbing]

Going by the number of empty shops in Central Plaza, Khon Kaen, that were once trading, and by the huge number of shops-houses that are built but never occupied, and, to my eyes, the fewer cars on the road, I think the economy is not good.

[hohososo]

Going by the number of empty shops in Central Plaza, Khon Kaen, that were once trading, and by the huge number of shops-houses that are built but never occupied, and, to my eyes, the fewer cars on the road, I think the economy is not good.

The fewer cars could be due to the significant amount of car crashes each day. If it keeps up, in20 years there might be no cars left and we'll be using UberWaterBuffalo

[Agent Sumo]

If you listen to the dopes on TV, the fact that a few skint European tourists go to Cambo or Burma because beer prices in Thailand have risen by 20 baht is tantamount to a deep and damaging recession.

They think their "family" shopping excursions at Big C to buy bright pastel-coloured, Chinese-made plastic crap are the absolute bedrock of the Thai consumer revolution

Seriously, though, the economy is doing fine.

Hardly great guns but it's doing fine.

"Seriously, though, the economy is doing fine."

And you can support your statement with facts and links?

You mean the statement in which I say the economy is hardly going great guns?

[AlexRRR]

The whole wide world is in a similar situation, just ticking over, the very fact interest rates world wide are so low tells you everything you need to know.

The world economy is in the same position it was around 10 years after the great depression, that makes it 1938, you know what happened in 1939.

Do i think a world war will happen no i dont but there easily could be and if it did happen it will destroy a third of the world and then economies will start kicking into gear to rebuild everything.

[joeyg]

When I first arrived in Thailand two years ago, the economy appeared to be humming along fine to me.

Then I realized it is all a debt funded facade.

If rates ever go higher, the economy is screwed as the banks will be screwed due to delinquent debts.

At least folks in the west with huge mortgages tend to win due to appreciation.

My experience here suggests that Thais lever up and buy depreciating assets such cars or real estate.

But in the West there are few buyers that will pay the correct price same thing happenning here.

[wprime]

This means the economy in your local town is collapsing, hardly reflective of the entire economy.

I don't see any evidence that the Thai economy is heading towards collapse in the near future though the Bangkok condo market is heavily inflated with debt so eventually when the economy slows down sufficiently Thailand will have her economic collapse. I don't think it will happen within the next 5 years.

[craigt3365]

The whole wide world is in a similar situation, just ticking over, the very fact interest rates world wide are so low tells you everything you need to know.

The world economy is in the same position it was around 10 years after the great depression, that makes it 1938, you know what happened in 1939.

Do i think a world war will happen no i dont but there easily could be and if it did happen it will destroy a third of the world and then economies will start kicking into gear to rebuild everything.

Not really. The West is hanging in there. It's not great, but not terrible. Asia is tied to China. Which isn't doing great. Look at the results from Singapore lately. Not good. But with stats you can trust. Thailand is not doing well at all.

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/singapore-non-oil-exports-fall-23-in-june

“With China’s deceleration being a structural one, the lackluster NODX performance could last for a while."

[craigt3365]

This means the economy in your local town is collapsing, hardly reflective of the entire economy.

I don't see any evidence that the Thai economy is heading towards collapse in the near future though the Bangkok condo market is heavily inflated with debt so eventually when the economy slows down sufficiently Thailand will have her economic collapse. I don't think it will happen within the next 5 years.

Not a collapse, but a nationwide slowing for sure. Seems government stimulus is keeping things going.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-16/thailand-s-economy-expands-more-than-expected-in-first-quarter

Thai exports contracted 1.4 percent in the first quarter, while imports shrank 14.4 percent over the period.

[lannarebirth]

Room for improvement but could be a hell of a lot worse:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/indicators

[thrilled]

My take as long as the Army is running the government the country isn't going to do good.Whenever the coup finishes up I believe

Things will get better

[lannarebirth]

My take as long as the Army is running the government the country isn't going to do good.Whenever the coup finishes up I believe

Things will get better

My take is that when the Army is running things they clean up the national Balance Sheet of the budgetary excesses of the prior populist government. Except for military spending of course. One government produces "growth" through borrowing. The other cleans the slate to repeat the process at a future date.

[Torrens54]

Massively Inflated "value" of the Baht isn't helping!

....and the Banks are trying to rip-off the ferang as well.

Yesterday we went to our Branch of a Bank I've been with for the past 10 years to get the letter for Immigration, as to having the required amount of money, to stay here with my Thai Wife and our daughter.

Smart little fellow tried to hit us up for Baht 400 for the Letter. Now, this has, in the past ranged between 100 and 200 Baht.

Both my wife and I started making noises of DISAPPROVAL. I threatened to close my account and guess what ?

Smart little fellow told us he would PAY the extra 200 Baht!

.... and they wonder why????

[wprime]

This means the economy in your local town is collapsing, hardly reflective of the entire economy.

I don't see any evidence that the Thai economy is heading towards collapse in the near future though the Bangkok condo market is heavily inflated with debt so eventually when the economy slows down sufficiently Thailand will have her economic collapse. I don't think it will happen within the next 5 years.

Not a collapse, but a nationwide slowing for sure. Seems government stimulus is keeping things going.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-16/thailand-s-economy-expands-more-than-expected-in-first-quarter

Thai exports contracted 1.4 percent in the first quarter, while imports shrank 14.4 percent over the period.

Absolutely but slowing happens every 5-7 years, it's just a normal part of the economic cycle. Most of the world is in an economic slow down at the moment.

[ezzra]

Don't know much a economy or GDP, all I know that fruits and Veg and consumer products are going up and

up in price, in practically fruits and Veg who's prices doubled and tripped in the last few years, mostly owing

to the fact that large Chinese conglomerates growing and has taken over many of the fruits growing and

wholesaling business sending most of the Thailand coveted fruits to the China, while the Thai government

sits on their hands and dose nothing......

[cbc]

I was speaking with a friend in Thailand two weeks ago.She owns a guest house and said she has never seen business so bad.Normally in low season it's slow but this season is really bad.Most all hotels and guest houses in the city are the same situation.

[Agent Sumo]

The whole wide world is in a similar situation, just ticking over, the very fact interest rates world wide are so low tells you everything you need to know.

The world economy is in the same position it was around 10 years after the great depression, that makes it 1938, you know what happened in 1939.

Do i think a world war will happen no i dont but there easily could be and if it did happen it will destroy a third of the world and then economies will start kicking into gear to rebuild everything.

Not really. The West is hanging in there. It's not great, but not terrible. Asia is tied to China. Which isn't doing great. Look at the results from Singapore lately. Not good. But with stats you can trust. Thailand is not doing well at all.

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/singapore-non-oil-exports-fall-23-in-june

“With China’s deceleration being a structural one, the lackluster NODX performance could last for a while."

The West has been "hanging in there" for the last 7 years.

What anaemic growth there is has been driven by ultra-accommodative monetary policy and sovereign debt is at unprecedented levels.

As if that wasn't bad enough, the central banks are about to start another round of quantitative easing to inject into their moribund economies.

At least Thailand has something approaching full employment and they're not printing money to fund their GDP growth.

Asia is tied to China, sure, but China is officially growing at 6.5% (more like 5% in reality).

A damn sight better than 2% in the UK or the US.

[WhizBang]

I am in Singapore right now and, except for a lot of Chinese tour groups, it is dead here.

I asked my neice, who lives here, why it was so quiet and she said the ecenomy is just bad right now.

[Naam]

If you listen to the dopes on TV, the fact that a few skint European tourists go to Cambo or Burma because beer prices in Thailand have risen by 20 baht is tantamount to a deep and damaging recession.

They think their "family" shopping excursions at Big C to buy bright pastel-coloured, Chinese-made plastic crap are the absolute bedrock of the Thai consumer revolution

Seriously, though, the economy is doing fine.

Hardly great guns but it's doing fine.

"Seriously, though, the economy is doing fine."

And you can support your statement with facts and links?

Thailand's forex reserves indicate "quite satisfactory":

[mikiea]

The economy is in a bit of a mess for sure but no more than many Western countries

you must be delusional . the graft , skim , back-door money , what ever you want to call it has taken its toll on the health of the Thai economy that you never see in the west . inflation 3-4% every 90 days ? the near exclusion of imported goods because no viable way to scam them and make money , the national police force on the take or actively extorting citizens and visitors , state projects to many to mention for the sole purpose of a kick-back scheme ? decaying infrastructure that desperately needs help . the ten's of thousands of empty units while construction continues (the chinese way) . and last but not least , street crime up . when a ladyboy cant make money with it's mouth it will use the pointy end of it's shoes .dude you need to get out more often . i love this city , but am saddened by what a economy downturn does to it .

[mikiea]

If you listen to the dopes on TV, the fact that a few skint European tourists go to Cambo or Burma because beer prices in Thailand have risen by 20 baht is tantamount to a deep and damaging recession.

They think their "family" shopping excursions at Big C to buy bright pastel-coloured, Chinese-made plastic crap are the absolute bedrock of the Thai consumer revolution

Seriously, though, the economy is doing fine.

Hardly great guns but it's doing fine.

"Seriously, though, the economy is doing fine."

And you can support your statement with facts and links?

Thailand's forex reserves indicate "quite satisfactory":

thailand-foreign-exchange-reserves.jpg

hahaha hahaha hahaha and you believe that ? thinking the charts are true is the same as trusting the winter weasel to guard the hen house . forex ? you buy that ? dude i have a 1 owner low mileage donkey for sale , only worked on weekends by a sweet ol'granny .. make me a offer .

[ubeturazz]

Armchair economists - full of insights on anything and everything.