August exports rise first time in five months

[webfact]

August exports rise first time in five months

 

 

BANGKOK: -- The country's exports grew 6.5% in August, the first time in five months.

 

At the same time, foreign investment forecast for the third quarter also correspondingly shows promising signs of improving.

 

 This was disclosed by deputy commerce minister Mr. Suvit Maesincee yesterday.

 

He said the country’s exports for August this year totaled US $ 18.825 billion, representing the first time that it has enjoyed positive growth in a five  month period.

 

This represents a 6.5% improvement and is due to a 30.7% increase in all of the country’s main trading partners with the exception of the middle-east whose exports continue to contract, he said.

 

But the deputy commerce minister cautioned that taken as a whole, the value of total exports for the first eight months of the year is still in the red with a 1.19% contraction.

 

Full story: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/august-exports-rise-first-time-five-months/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2016-09-27

[Srikcir]

13 hours ago, webfact said:

The country's exports grew 6.5% in August, the first time in five months.

Actually first time in eight months January-August 2016.

This growth is either an extreme anamoly or miscalculation as there has been nothing between January and July that would cause an average 2% overall contraction to suddenly experience an increase of 6.5% for August. Recently:

 

August 2016 – According to Chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council Nopporn Thepsittha:

• if the value of gold exports which is valued at US$ 841 million is deducted from July’s export value, then the overall export value contracts by 8.3%.¹
• exports over the past seven months [2016] have contracted by 2 percent year-on-year.² 

September 2016 - Exports to Asean are expected to slow from 7.4-per-cent growth last year to a contraction of 0.8 per cent, with shipment growth to the United States falling from 5 per cent to 1 per cent, exports to the European Union dropping from 1 per cent to between zero and 1 per cent, and sales to Japan from 1-per-cent expansion in 2015 to flat growth this year.³
 

1    http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/exporters-voice-concern-export-contraction-year/

2    http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/940364-tnsc-calls-on-central-bank-to-limit-baht-appreciation-to-345usd/

 3   http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Brighter-outlook-seen-for-Thai-exports-30294661.html

 

 

[Xircal]

Seems to have been an increase in auto shipments which accounted for the sudden increase: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, Xircal said:

Seems to have been an increase in auto shipments which accounted for the sudden increase: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

From link above: "Exports from Thailand unexpectedly rose 6.5 percent year-on-year to USD 18.83 million in August of 2016, following a 6.38 percent fall in July while market expected a 1.4 percent drop."

Again, something is very suspicious in the reporting of exports:

 

In August 2016 it was reported that  "As for car production, there were more than 153,000 units manufactured in July,

decreasing by 14.4% compared to the same period last year. Thailand’s car exports dropped by 3.13%." 

 http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/939416-julys-industries-sentiment-index-decreases/

Perhaps a seasonal event or a one-time inventory adjustment?

 

[mtls2005]

Good thing they've got a lot of gold to export.

[Xircal]

10 hours ago, Srikcir said:

From link above: "Exports from Thailand unexpectedly rose 6.5 percent year-on-year to USD 18.83 million in August of 2016, following a 6.38 percent fall in July while market expected a 1.4 percent drop."

 

Again, something is very suspicious in the reporting of exports:

 

In August 2016 it was reported that  "As for car production, there were more than 153,000 units manufactured in July,

 

I can't imagine that the Ministry of Commerce would risk juggling the figures just to try and create confidence in the Thai economy. If it ever came to light that the 6.5% export boost was a figment of somebody's imagination it would knock confidence in the country for six.

[trainman34014]

Most likely an upward blip owing to Auto exports.   Next month lets see what happens if there are a lot less vehicles moving.

[ExpatOilWorker]

On 28/9/2559 at 7:53 AM, Srikcir said:

From link above: "Exports from Thailand unexpectedly rose 6.5 percent year-on-year to USD 18.83 million in August of 2016, following a 6.38 percent fall in July while market expected a 1.4 percent drop."

 

Again, something is very suspicious in the reporting of exports:

 

In August 2016 it was reported that  "As for car production, there were more than 153,000 units manufactured in July,

 

decreasing by 14.4% compared to the same period last year. Thailand’s car exports dropped by 3.13%." 

 http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/939416-julys-industries-sentiment-index-decreases/

Perhaps a seasonal event or a one-time inventory adjustment?

 

 

You were spot on, it was suspicious and too good to be true. For an apparently legit accounting reason BOTH July and August auto export numbers were included in the August export numbers. It was in BKK post today.