May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, mommysboy said:

 

You are blind to the game imo.  Of course a moderate such as May (Cameron, Major) is always the public face.  What happens then is that the hard right slowly get to work subverting the mandate.

 

I hope you are right in your predictions.  But as with many you simply have not grasped that there are very limited options between single market and drop out.  At best I can see a long transference period based on the Norway model, and thereafter a trade deal similar to the one with Canada.

So we're ignoring what has actually happened - preferring to rely on a prediction that "What happens then is that the hard right slowly get to work subverting the mandate.".

[mommysboy]

Just now, dick dasterdly said:

So we're ignoring what has actually happened - preferring to rely on a prediction that "What happens then is that the hard right slowly get to work subverting the mandate.".

 

Well, isn't the Brexit vote a clear example of what I am writing?  Here, the liberal thinking government was sabotaged by the right of its own party.

 

It happens time and again- Britain elects a liberal Tory government, whose power is gradually eroded which allows the hard right to hold it to ransom.  The tail wags the dog.

 

 

[vogie]

2 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Well therein lies the rub, because the majority of Brexiteers were under the impression that UK would remain part of the single market imo.

 

But as you say that is really a worse option than remaining as a member.

 

Yet I think the majority (perhaps as much 75%) of the electorate wanted a soft Brexit.

 

Methinks the policy was mis-sold! 

 

And this is perhaps the only area where I agree with the similarly deluded EU, who say the public were misled.

Most brexiteers were not under the impression that the UK would remain in the single market, that is what you would like to believe. And as for the public being misled, it is what you chose to believe. It was a simple vote, stay or leave, nothing more nothing less. I would suggest that most brexiteers are very happy with the way Mrs May and her cabinet are conducting theirselves, her approval rating would also suggest this.

[mommysboy]

Just now, vogie said:

Most brexiteers were not under the impression that the UK would remain in the single market, that is what you would like to believe. And as for the public being misled, it is what you chose to believe. It was a simple vote, stay or leave, nothing more nothing less. I would suggest that most brexiteers are very happy with the way Mrs May and her cabinet are conducting theirselves, her approval rating would also suggest this.

I approve of May, despite being a Labour supporter.  She's an excellent prime minister, and a liberal Tory government is currently the only option.

 

That does not mean I endorse the Brexit shambles. 

 

I suppose we can agree to disagree.

 

 

[Flustered]

11 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Well therein lies the rub, because the majority of Brexiteers were under the impression that UK would remain part of the single market imo.

 

But as you say that is really a worse option than remaining as a member.

 

Yet I think the majority (perhaps as much 75%) of the electorate wanted a soft Brexit.

 

Methinks the policy was mis-sold! 

 

And this is perhaps the only area where I agree with the similarly deluded EU, who say the public were misled.

You make wild sweeping assumptions as to what Brexiteers wanted and to what will happen.

 

At this point in time, none of us know how this will turn out. We have to rely on the new government to negotiate the best deal possible. Until then, there is no single market, no hard or soft Brexit, just speculation. In fact, there is no such thing as a hard or soft Brexit....there is just Brexit, an agreed settlement or no settlement. If it is no settlement, that may well turn out to be a soft option, no one knows.

 

Bottom line is that we voted for Brexit and as Theresa May clearly stated (sorry if people are too dumb to understand it) Brexit means Brexit. There is no hard or soft, just Brexit.

[Flustered]

3 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

That does not mean I endorse the Brexit shambles. 

 

 

What shambles?

 

We have announced we are coming out. Initial talks took place and Theresa May has acted with calm authority. The EU leaders on the other hand have been vociferous in their anti UK stance and wish to punish us and act as a deterrent to others.

 

From our side? no shambles at all.

 

 

[mommysboy]

Just now, Flustered said:

You make wild sweeping assumptions as to what Brexiteers wanted and to what will happen.

 

At this point in time, none of us know how this will turn out. We have to rely on the new government to negotiate the best deal possible. Until then, there is no single market, no hard or soft Brexit, just speculation. In fact, there is no such thing as a hard or soft Brexit....there is just Brexit, an agreed settlement or no settlement. If it is no settlement, that may well turn out to be a soft option, no one knows.

 

Bottom line is that we voted for Brexit and as Theresa May clearly stated (sorry if people are too dumb to understand it) Brexit means Brexit. There is no hard or soft, just Brexit.

 

Stop dragging up yesterday's argument.  Everyone knows we voted Brexit.  Don't call people dumb.

 

I for one would simply leave tomorrow.  It's not what I want, but it is the only option imo. I thought May has already ruled out remaining part of the single market.  Isn't that right?  If so I think we can rule out anything other than what is popularly called a hard Brexit.  It's about damage limitation now.

 

 

 

 

[mommysboy]

3 minutes ago, Flustered said:

What shambles?

 

We have announced we are coming out. Initial talks took place and Theresa May has acted with calm authority. The EU leaders on the other hand have been vociferous in their anti UK stance and wish to punish us and act as a deterrent to others.

 

From our side? no shambles at all.

 

 

I am referring to the whole process of Brexit from inception, to what is manifesting now, to what appears likely in the future.

 

Shambles it has been.  Shambles is what it is now.  Shambles most likely will be the outcome imo.

[Loaded]

We will always have access to the single market. As the EU and UK (founding member and still current member) are members of the WTO. WTO rules prevent the EU from excluding UK imports. The EU will be prevented from setting punitive tariffs against UK imports because according to the schedules they trade under at the WTO, they cannot exceed their maximum stated tariff (boundary tariff) plus if they impose a boundary tariff on one country, they must impose on all countries - this isn't going to happen. It's likely that the EU will be forced to continue trading with the UK under their current tariff IE no tariff - until they submit new schedules. The UK will be free to set tariffs that best suit their trading policy.

[Flustered]

Just now, Loaded said:

We will always have access to the single market. As the EU and UK (founding member and still current member) are members of the WTO. WTO rules prevent the EU from excluding UK imports. The EU will be prevented from setting punitive tariffs against UK imports because according to the schedules they trade under at the WTO, they cannot exceed their maximum stated tariff (boundary tariff) plus if they impose a boundary tariff on one country, they must impose on all countries - this isn't going to happen. It's likely that the EU will be forced to continue trading with the UK under their current tariff IE no tariff - until they submit new schedules. The UK will be free to set tariffs that best suit their trading policy.

Good God, I am flabbergasted. A completely sensible post.

 

Just wait for some certain FMs to disagree wildly with you as they cannot tolerate facts.

[Flustered]

6 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

 

Stop dragging up yesterday's argument.  Everyone knows we voted Brexit.  Don't call people dumb.

 

I for one would simply leave tomorrow.  It's not what I want, but it is the only option imo. I thought May has already ruled out remaining part of the single market.  Isn't that right?  If so I think we can rule out anything other than what is popularly called a hard Brexit.  It's about damage limitation now.

 

 

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

I am referring to the whole process of Brexit from inception, to what is manifesting now, to what appears likely in the future.

 

Shambles it has been.  Shambles is what it is now.  Shambles most likely will be the outcome imo.

Yesterdays argument? Brexit hasn't happened yet, we are still in negotiation stage and until then, a full member of the EU.

 

If you stopped second guessing what will happen and to use a Tony Blair phrase "wait and see", you will probably be pleasantly surprised.

 

You still have not said what it is that is a shambles. We have only had a few meetings so there is nothing tangible to report on. And for those concerned that TM wants to play her cards close to her chest, you can always read what Michel Barnier leaks out.

[Loaded]

2 minutes ago, Flustered said:

Good God, I am flabbergasted. A completely sensible post.

 

Just wait for some certain FMs to disagree wildly with you as they cannot tolerate facts.

The sooner we leave the EU, the better.

 

the only reason the UK may make a voluntary payment is political. It will compromise to remain on good terms with the EU. The last week has shown that the EU doesn't want that. They want to do a Greece on us - humiliate and destroy.

 

 

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

As so often, Vogie, we have the seeds of agreement! I believe in strong unions for the benefit of companies; that is owners, directors and employees. Optimal solutions are usually beneficial to owners and workers alike. The polarisation of unions and management is so passé. We are behind the curve.

 

I think the EU has been slow to accept good practice and has been dragged down by arcane management practice and lack of investment. American style short termism and the blind pursuit of shareholder value has hollowed out much of our industry. 

 

I dont believe in unions funding politicians and I also dislike business funding politicians. A better method is to have central funding for political parties and limit personal contributions to, say GBP 10,000.

 

What's good about UK?

 

1) Longest continuous democracy in the world

 

2) Rule of law

 

3) Excellent Police

 

4) Professionalism of armed forces

 

5) Mutual ( building ) societies 

 

6) High quality public housing

 

7) Real pubs

 

8) Real Beer

 

9) Architecture

 

10) National Parks

 

11) Music ( pop, rock, classical, jazz, operetta )

 

12) World Class universities (Russel Group)

 

13) Research

 

14) Land Rover

 

15) Scotch Whisky

 

16) Yorkshire pudding

 

16) Cricket

 

17) Diplomacy

 

18) Humour

 

19) Richness of English

 

20) John Le Carre

 

Ok, that's 20. Plenty of others....

 

20 dislikes anyone? ?

Second para (NOT 2 para) should read UK NOT EU. Sorry to confuse

[mommysboy]

1 minute ago, Loaded said:

We will always have access to the single market. As the EU and UK (founding member and still current member) are members of the WTO. WTO rules prevent the EU from excluding UK imports. The EU will be prevented from setting punitive tariffs against UK imports because according to the schedules they trade under at the WTO, they cannot exceed their maximum stated tariff (boundary tariff) plus if they impose a boundary tariff on one country, they must impose on all countries - this isn't going to happen. It's likely that the EU will be forced to continue trading with the UK under their current tariff IE no tariff - until they submit new schedules. The UK will be free to set tariffs that best suit their trading policy.

 

This is what gives me some heart.

 

Yet it is not quite as simple as that.  Consider the financial markets for instance: currently the City has passporting which gives it unfettered access, whereas we will in fact have very limited access by way of licences for each individual activity.  These can take ages to receive. 

 

Take the car industry.  In the making of a car, components may move back and forward a number of times, each would be subject to tariffs each time.

 

But personally I agree Brexit means Brexit and all this is a moot point really.  The point is it's happening.  The downside can't really be mitigated. 

[Basil B]

Really can not do any negotiating until the Election is over...

 

And according to opinion polls, although the Tories have never had it so good and could end up with another 100 MP's many Tory supporters are not in favour of a Hard Brexit and thinking of voting tactically.

 

Suppose one of the most important things that is very clear to any intelligent person is if we close our border to Europe and open our borders to Canada, USA, South Africa, west Indies, Australia, New Zealand, etc. That goods will have to travel a lot further meaning that the moving of goods will be more expensive, take longer to arrive and be more polluting.  

 

 

[nontabury]

14 minutes ago, Flustered said:

What shambles?

 

We have announced we are coming out. Initial talks took place and Theresa May has acted with calm authority. The EU leaders on the other hand have been vociferous in their anti UK stance and wish to punish us and act as a deterrent to others.

 

From our side? no shambles at all.

 

 

Agree, but let's not forget "MONEY" another factor, that is concentrating the minds of the Brussels Bureacrats. Who is going to make up the shortfall,when the UK ( the 2nd largest contributor) finally leaves this so called Union.

 

[Basil B]

57 minutes ago, vogie said:

Staying in the single market means maintaining the status quo, we may as well have stayed in the EU, most brexiteers do not want that, only remainers.

I think many brexit voters were concerned about immigration and do not forget the Leave campaign were saying we could negotiate a similar deals to countries like Switzerland and Norway.

Edited May 7, 2017 by Basil B

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, Flustered said:

First. As most lefties, you continually insult the electorate and when they have a view opposite to yours, they are "uninformed".

 

Of course a minority has to live with the results.....that's called Democracy. we have lived with socialist governments, conservative governments, coalition governments (thankfully no SNP governments).

 

Normal people accept the result of an election knowing that in a number of years they can vote again but for some unfathomable reason, left leaning people never accept this and always think theirs is the only opinion that matters. I did not vote for Harold Wilson, James Callaghan, Tony Blair or Gordon Brown but accepted that these were the PMs of the Government of the day elected by the British public (except Brown0.

Still wrong

 

FIRST. I am not a Leftie by any reasonable definition ( do you think The Wehrmacht were lefties because they didn't like Hitler and the SS?). I am possibly a social democrat but I am not a socialist or a Marxist or a Trot.

 

SECOND. I accept we have to live with the results. I am not an anarchist 

 

THIRD. Just because I accept government by majority does not mean that I accept that they are correct. Why is that concept so hard to understand? I am not planning an armed resistance!

 

Finally, I have no desire to insult the electorate. BUT I believe having a vote carries a responsibility. A responsibility to be as well informed as reasonably possible. I WILL criticise when people obviously don't know the facts.

 

Opinions are different; degustibus non es disputandum

Edited May 7, 2017 by Grouse

[nontabury]

Some people have accused others of being leftist. So what is a leftist person in British politics.

 

 

[Basil B]

14 minutes ago, Grouse said:

What's good about UK?

 

1) Longest continuous democracy in the world

 

2) Rule of law

 

3) Excellent Police

 

4) Professionalism of armed forces

 

5) Mutual ( building ) societies 

 

6) High quality public housing

 

7) Real pubs

 

8) Real Beer

 

9) Architecture

 

10) National Parks

 

11) Music ( pop, rock, classical, jazz, operetta )

 

12) World Class universities (Russel Group)

 

13) Research

 

14) Land Rover

 

15) Scotch Whisky

 

16) Yorkshire pudding

 

16) Cricket

 

17) Diplomacy

 

18) Humour

 

19) Richness of English

 

20) John Le Carre

 

Ok, that's 20. Plenty of others....

 

20 dislikes anyone? ?

5) Mutual ( building ) societies, recent survey showed Bank of Mum & Dad to now be a major help on the mortgage ladder. 

 

6) High quality public housing???

Social Housing or Public Houses??? not enough Social Housing and Public Houses on a very steep decline...

 

"Ok, that's  20 21. Plenty of others...." 

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

"Maybe you like the American (winner takes all) way of doing things?"

 

Why on earth do you insist on coming out with this sort of rubbish??!  There was nothing in my post to indicate anything of the sort....  In fact my post indicated the opposite.

 

And the rest of your post continues in the same way - attributing imagined beliefs to those that have the audacity to disagree with you!

 

And, (FWIW ) I was predicting gated communities three or four decades ago - about the time you were supporting Thatcher!  You're self-proclaimed excellent education obviously paid off extremely well ....

Sorry that you think my post was rubbish! I thought it was quite good, but could be improved.

 

The point that I failed to make was that I think many other EU countries make a better job of pension provision. Less of a lottery. It's not one of life's main foci. If you contributed reasonably to society, you would be taken care of reasonably. A successful PPP is not a REQUIREMENT for survival in old age.

 

Yes, in my venture capitalist influenced younger days, I didn't really care about social consequences. Mea culpa.

 

As to education? I am extremely grateful. No, seriously. It was a privilege to be at Durham. Why do you want knock it? I created a significant number of well paid jobs, if that is what you mean? I am not a multimillionaire, if that is what you mean? I understand Fermi, Maxwell and Schroedinger, if that is what you mean? Please enlighten me! I have made more mistakes than most and achieved more than many. Time for a Famous Grouse!

[mommysboy]

Just to clear things up: Is it safe to assume that everyone on this forum perceives that UK cannot expect to leave the EU and retain the trading arrangement within the EU that it currently has?

 

 

 

 

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

 

I did not say she was.  I was referring to the hard right. 

 

It'll be May that wins the election on a unity platform that emphasises fairness.... and then the far right will seek to force its own unmandated agenda, just as it did with every Tory Government from Thatcher through to Cameron. 

 

The prime example is Brexit.  Here, the vote was secured by a narrow margin.  Most people, even those that voted to leave, agreed that we should stay in the single market.  Yet due to the usual games we are facing a hard Brexit that only the far right wants!

 

Happens every time.  UK gets a far right Government that nobody voted for.

Nobody can argue with this! Can they?

[rockingrobin]

1 hour ago, Loaded said:

We will always have access to the single market. As the EU and UK (founding member and still current member) are members of the WTO. WTO rules prevent the EU from excluding UK imports. The EU will be prevented from setting punitive tariffs against UK imports because according to the schedules they trade under at the WTO, they cannot exceed their maximum stated tariff (boundary tariff) plus if they impose a boundary tariff on one country, they must impose on all countries - this isn't going to happen. It's likely that the EU will be forced to continue trading with the UK under their current tariff IE no tariff - until they submit new schedules. The UK will be free to set tariffs that best suit their trading policy.

The EU as a customs union is as such  not strictly bound by WTO rules on MFN

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, dick dasterdly said:

Odd then that May was elected by such a hard right tory party?

 

It seems to me that EU politicians are 'talking' the UK into a hard brexit (too many examples to quote).....  But its only for political purposes and assuming May wins with an even larger majority, it seems likely they'll give up on the 'game' and start talking seriously.

 

Edit - If I'm wrong and they continue with their ridiculous demands, then May is right in saying that 'no agreement is better than a bad agreement'.

We should be grateful for small mercies. TM was the "best" of the candidates! How about Boris? Gove? that dreadful woman from the dark side? I have a small glimmer of hope that TM will use a huge majority to ditch the hard right and put on the One Nation magic cloak ?

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, nontabury said:

Some people have accused others of being leftist. So what is a leftist person in British politics.

 

 

The guy with the specs is right

 

The Muslim guy isnt

 

[Flustered]

39 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Just to clear things up: Is it safe to assume that everyone on this forum perceives that UK cannot expect to leave the EU and retain the trading arrangement within the EU that it currently has?

 

 

 

 

No, you are jumping to conclusions again.

 

Until the negotiations are over, no one knows what the outcome will be.

[mommysboy]

4 minutes ago, Flustered said:

No, you are jumping to conclusions again.

 

Until the negotiations are over, no one knows what the outcome will be.

Do you think it is possible to exit as a completely independent country, and retain the trading agreement we currently have without concessions on the feedom of movement for example?

 

 

[citybiker]

Just to clear things up: Is it safe to assume that everyone on this forum perceives that UK cannot expect to leave the EU and retain the trading arrangement within the EU that it currently has?
 
 
 
 

Poor analysis to assume anything to be fair, a trade agreement I suspect will prevail eventually, without stating the obvious the focus will be the term's & conditions aspect.

As for the €100 bn magic figure the 'media' keeps banging on about from unofficial Eurocrats for an exit bill......legally flawed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/100bn-brexit-bill-legally-impossible-enforce-european-commissions/


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[mommysboy]

14 minutes ago, citybiker said:

 

Poor analysis to assume anything to be fair, a trade agreement I suspect will prevail eventually, without stating the obvious the focus will be the term's & conditions aspect.

As for the €100 bn magic figure the 'media' keeps banging on about from unofficial Eurocrats for an exit bill......legally flawed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/06/100bn-brexit-bill-legally-impossible-enforce-european-commissions/


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Well what do you expect the main thrust to be? 

 

You must have thought about it.