US: Philippines' Duterte sparking distress around the world

[boomerangutang]

If I was prez of Fil, I wouldn't be a push over to China taking over Fil territory.  I would be holding a tough stance.   Duterte is like Trump; he talks tough, but inside he's a powder puff.  The Fil people are going to regret electing Duterte, and it won't be smooth transition - to get him to leave office.

[shadmo63]

@geriatrickid said - 'I give him a year at best before he is arrested and charged with crimes against humanity or is assassinated.'

Well he is obviously going down the totalitarian road. I give him 3 years before he cancels all elections and declares himself President for life.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect

[Publicus]

21 hours ago, nodomino said:

There is no need to rely on news filtered through the hugely corrupt global media propaganda machine. Go to YouTube. Duterte is there explaining his positions and rationale in very easy to understand English.   Make your own decision.  You don't need the AP, CNN, MSNBC, or ANY explanation.  <<snip>>

 

Hard to know whether it's a leash or a noose...

 

[Publicus]

22 hours ago, nodomino said:

 

Never mind the box that won't go away. My full post is below.

 

Pentagon confirmed within the hour it had conducted a new US Naval Freedom of Navigation Operation the past Friday, at the Spratlys off Mindanao and where CCP Dictators in Beijing have 7 artificial islands.

 

 

U.S. warship challenges China's claims in South China Sea

 

October 21, 2016

Guided-missile destroyer USS Decatur (DDG 73) operates in the South China Sea as part of the Bonhomme Richard Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) of the U.S 7th Fleet.  U.S. Navy/Handout via REUTERS

 

The guided-missile destroyer USS Decatur challenged "excessive maritime claims" near the Paracel Islands, among a string of islets, reefs and shoals over which China has territorial disputes with its neighbors, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

 

The latest U.S. patrol, first reported by Reuters, is expected to anger Beijing and could further escalate tensions over the South China Sea. The destroyer sailed within waters claimed by China, close to but not within the 12-nautical-mile territorial limits of the islands, the officials said.

 

The Pentagon said the Decatur "conducted this transit in a routine, lawful manner without ship escorts and without incident." One official said the ship, which sailed near Triton and Woody Islands, was shadowed by three Chinese vessels and that all interactions were safe.

 

The White House confirmed the Reuters report.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-u-carries-freedom-navigation-operation-south-china-133448275.html

 

 

It was Thursday last week Duterte in Bejing made his notorious statement that it's now "China, Russia and the Philippines against the world. That is how it should be."

Edited October 25, 2016 by Publicus
Correct and complete externally blocked post.

[boomerangutang]

It was hoped that the US would help keep the Chinese from commandeering islands off the Fil coast with assistance/support from the Fils.  Now it's looking like it may be doubtful the Fils are willing to assist, because of Duterte.  As Publicus showed in his post above, the US will continue to do what's right, with or without official Fil' support.   

[Publicus]

5 hours ago, chilli42 said:

It's inevitable that Asia will divide along the lines of pro-China and pro-US.  Sevral countries are already licking boots in China.  Nothing is free, both China and US demand compliant behaviour from those they support so it's a choice between bad and worse.  If Philippines wants to jump into the pro-China camp then god bless them.  Why does it matter?  As a nation the Philippines brings next to nothing to the party and is likely to drive Vietnam squarely into the pro-US alliance.

 

Asean is already dissolving as a factor in regional security due to CCP Dictators in Beijing and all of the South China Sea business. CCP has by conscious design divided Asean over 15 years (and more) to make it ineffective.

 

Asean would need to change its unanimous consensus rule -- at least in security matters -- to a majority decision, which is isn't doing nor would it be doing. It's 8-2 now against Beijing, with Cambodia and Laos getting big bucks from Beijing to fatten the bank accounts of certain people in Phnem Penh and in Vientiane. 

 

Asean wasn't ever a major factor in regional security, given the association is primarily a political-economic one to include trade and now the Asean Economic Community. Asean did however have its "Centrality" concept for the grouping, but that is now shot full of holes by CCP Boyz in Beijing.

 

Now in security matters which include SCS resources in and under the Sea, it's every man for himself as each country is buying submarines, fighter aircraft, missiles, radars, patrol boats and ships. It's only just begun due to CCP belligerence and bellicosity in the SCS. 

 

If CCP didn't mean it in the SCS, it wouldn't be doing it in the SCS. Boyz in Beijing are in it to the bitter end. Governments and elites of the region know this. So does Washington which when it comes down to it will deliver the bitters to Beijing's end. 

[Publicus]

58 minutes ago, boomerangutang said:

It was hoped that the US would help keep the Chinese from commandeering islands off the Fil coast with assistance/support from the Fils.  Now it's looking like it may be doubtful the Fils are willing to assist, because of Duterte.  As Publicus showed in his post above, the US will continue to do what's right, with or without official Fil' support.   

 

Yes and this FNOP Friday was another in the Spratlys which are off the coast of Duterte's home province of Mindanao.

 

Still, the ball game is the Scarborough Shoal. 

 

CCP betrayed a 2012 agreement brokered by Washington for each side to pull back in a standoff at the Shoal. CCP sneaked ships back in and began to control the Shoal. CCP havent' built there, but only because President Obama has told Xi Jinping last year and this year not to do it. CCP have however blockaded Phils fishermen since 2012, at Scarborough and throughout the sprawling Spratlys, both of which are more directly a Phils problem than it is a Washington problem.. 

 

Duterte got a big no from CCP to his goodwill request the Boyz allow Phils fishermen back into both locations' fishing grounds. This is hurting Du30 at home with the fishing industry and individual fishermen or fishing associations of Phils coastal residents North, Central, South on the Phils islands. Duterte renewed his request face to face last week in Beijing, but all he got from the Boyz was maybe a conditional return of some fishermen to some limited extent blah blah.

 

If CCP built on Scarborough, it would be like wrapping a bow on the entire CCP South China Sea project. Scarborough is the lynchpin of CCP control of the sea and the air above it. The Shoal is between the Phils and Taiwan, which means CCP would finally get its desperately sought northeast access to the open western Pacific Ocean, which it hasn't had in hundreds of years (and hadn't been interested in having for a couple of thousand years).

 

CCP gets Scarborough and Duterte's cooked in Manila and throughout the Phils. No question. That alone.

 

Yet Washington can't give up Scarborough no matter what because of its strategic importance to CCP's entire SCS scheme and to US national security in the region, to include its treaty allies  (such as Australia and Japan among others), partner governments (such as Vietnam) and other friendly and supporting countries (such as Singapore).

 

CCP has in fact held off on Scarborough which is the vital item to its entire SCS undertaking. The whole of it thus remains essentially incomplete, i.e., ineffective. Beijing needs Scarborough but so does Duterte and so does the USA. Scarborough Shoal is the place to keep an eye on, at all times.

[sgtsabai]

The US is in a tight spot for now. Hopefully some intelligence will be shown inside the beltway but the last several decades don't bring much hope. The US should have been much tougher in preventing the illegal establishment of fake islands by China from the git-go. The latest U.S. patrol, first reported by Reuters, is expected to anger Beijing and could further escalate tensions over the South China Sea. The destroyer sailed within waters claimed by China, close to but not within the 12-nautical-mile territorial limits of the islands, the officials said. This is nothing and will be nothing until they sail well within the 12 mile limit, radar up, guns up, all stations combat ready. If the US does not start to play hardball it will lose what little faith the other countries of SE Asia have in it.

 

Duterte will hang himself out to dry, but the damage he will cause before that happens could be great.

 

[Publicus]

11 minutes ago, sgtsabai said:

The US is in a tight spot for now. Hopefully some intelligence will be shown inside the beltway but the last several decades don't bring much hope. The US should have been much tougher in preventing the illegal establishment of fake islands by China from the git-go. The latest U.S. patrol, first reported by Reuters, is expected to anger Beijing and could further escalate tensions over the South China Sea. The destroyer sailed within waters claimed by China, close to but not within the 12-nautical-mile territorial limits of the islands, the officials said. This is nothing and will be nothing until they sail well within the 12 mile limit, radar up, guns up, all stations combat ready. If the US does not start to play hardball it will lose what little faith the other countries of SE Asia have in it.

 

Duterte will hang himself out to dry, but the damage he will cause before that happens could be great.

 

 

Easy does it sarge cause this is a classic case of why everyone involved kicks up some sea spray but does essentially nothing.

 

Militarily the CCP islands, submarines and anti-submarine nets, aircraft and missiles and all go poof instantly in any actual armed conflict. The artificial islands and natural ones are too small to amount to anything militarily and their combined net effect on the sea and in the air is weak. Presto and poof for 'em -- all of 'em.

 

So it's the usual test of diplomatic skills and will.

 

Beijing knows if it moves to build on Scarborough Shoal Duterte is a goner in the Phils due to Philippine sovereignty. Some in the Phils are serious about sovereignty, others will exploit it to remove Duterte.

 

USA lets Beijing build on the Shoal by doing nothing in response -- which Washington and Manila are 100% against and ready to respond to -- and Duterte is still a goner. But USA loses the real strategic feature of the SCS, given the status of all the other features, whoever's got 'em. USA would respond as it has said to Xi Jinping.

 

USA responds to CCP moving to build on Scarborough and Duterte has to side with Washington and do it completely and entirely. Phils public opinion demands it, and the mass of the Phils population would rather insistently demand it under such an unlikely development or circumstance. Asean would crap its pants but side with Washington.

 

In any of these scenarios Duterte is the kind of guy who gets to be here today but gone tomorrow. Then everyone regoups. So it's rather diplomacy and who blinks, subject to the domestic political dynamics of the Phils and their pace -- and only in the Phils by the Filipinos themselves.

[sgtsabai]

Agree on the diplomacy, which the US has been sadly lacking in several decades. The Chinese run circles around the US when it comes to diplomacy games. As you know, I'm very much against the US meddling in the mid-east and our many other illegal, immoral wars but China is for once a real enemy of the world and only respects power. When reason fails, power prevails and the US doesn't have the diplomatic people to reason with China. As I said, staying outside the "12 mile limit" with radar, guns down not at battle stations is just a laughing matter for the Chinese who continue to spread the lies about violating their sovereignty.