New MH370 analysis suggests no one at controls during crash

[webfact]

New MH370 analysis suggests no one at controls during crash 
KRISTEN GELINEAU, Associated Press

 

SYDNEY (AP) — A fresh analysis of the final moments of doomed Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 suggests no one was controlling the plane when it plunged into the ocean, according to a report released by investigators on Wednesday, as experts hunting for the aircraft gathered in Australia's capital to discuss the fading search effort.

 

A technical report released by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, which leads the search, seems to support the theory investigators have long favored: that no one was at the controls of the Boeing 777 when it ran out of fuel and dove at high speed into a remote patch of the Indian Ocean off western Australia in 2014.

 

In recent months, critics have increasingly been pushing the alternate theory that someone was still controlling the plane at the end of its flight. If that was the case, the aircraft could have glided much farther, tripling in size the possible area where it could have crashed and further complicating the already hugely complex effort to find it.

 

But Wednesday's report shows that the latest analysis of satellite data is consistent with the plane being in a "high and increasing rate of descent" in its final moments. The report also said that an analysis of a wing flap that washed ashore in Tanzania indicates the flap was likely not deployed when it broke off the plane. A pilot would typically extend the flaps during a controlled ditching.

 

Peter Foley, the bureau's director of Flight 370 search operations, has previously said that if the flap was not deployed, it would almost certainly rule out the theory that the plane entered the water in a controlled ditch and would effectively validate that searchers are looking in the right place for the wreckage.

 

"(It) means the aircraft wasn't configured for a landing or a ditching — you can draw your own conclusions as to whether that means someone was in control," Foley told reporters in Canberra on Wednesday. "You can never be 100 percent. We are very reluctant to express absolute certainty."

 

The report's release comes as a team of international and Australian experts begin a three-day summit in Canberra to re-examine all the data associated with the hunt for the plane, which vanished during a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014, with 239 people on board.

 

More than 20 items of debris suspected or confirmed to be from the plane have washed ashore on coastlines throughout the Indian Ocean. But a deep-sea sonar search for the main underwater wreckage has found nothing. Crews are expect to complete their sweep of the 120,000-square kilometer (46,000-square mile) search zone by early next year and officials have said there are no plans to extend the hunt unless new evidence emerges that would pinpoint a specific location of the aircraft.

 

Australian Transport Minister Darren Chester said experts involved in this week's summit will be working on guidance for any potential future search operations.

 

Experts have been preemptively trying to define a new search area by studying where in the Indian Ocean the first piece of wreckage recovered from the plane — a wing flap known as a flaperon — most likely drifted from after the plane crashed.

 

Several replica flaperons were set adrift to see whether it is the wind or the currents that primarily affect how they move across the water. The results of that experiment have been factored into a fresh drift analysis of the debris. The preliminary results of that analysis, published in Wednesday's report, suggest the debris may have originated in the current search area, or to its north. The transport bureau cautioned that the analysis is ongoing and those results are likely to be refined.

 

-- © Associated Press 2016-11-02

[SgtRock]

19 minutes ago, webfact said:

But Wednesday's report shows that the latest analysis of satellite data is consistent with the plane being in a "high and increasing rate of descent" in its final moments.

 

No expert and do not claim to be.

 

Whatever satellite data that they have would have been examined in microscopic detail right from the start of this investigation. Hard to believe that they are coming up with new interpretations of that data at this late stage.

 

But if satellite data is indicating a '' high and increasing rate of descent in its final moments '' would this not indicate that the plane came down very steep and fast therefore making the crash site more easily pinpointed.

 

The severe lack of floating debris is indeed a mystery.

[Mrjlh]

All this without a "Black Box".....or...even the plane.  Must be pretty good scientist.

[elgordo38]

All this bloody hoopla and in this golden age of IT we cannot put a tracker on a plane to follow its flight path just bloody incredible. 

[Cook my sock]

All this bloody hoopla and in this golden age of IT we cannot put a tracker on a plane to follow its flight path just bloody incredible. 

There are, but Malaysian airlines hadn't paid the fees.. this was only reported recently and the plane shouldn't have been in the air basically

[Cook my sock]

There were 2 'witnesses' reporting a plane on fire, one was the oil rig guy (before the plane changed course)and the other was a lady on the deck of a yacht. I still find both stories compelling.
But if it was a fire, wd the plane have flown so long..

[soc]

lslanders in the Maldives also reported seeing the plane.

[Roota]

1 hour ago, Cook my sock said:

There are, but Malaysian airlines hadn't paid the fees.. 

MH370 was equipped with industry-standard ADS-B (automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast), the current state of the art. The problem is that it communicates only with other aircraft and ground stations within range, hence the loss of contact over the Gulf of Thailand. 

 

The system is now being changed to allow reception of ADS-B signals by satellites, so there will soon be worldwide coverage. This, unfortunately, is the way aviation safety tends to progress: as a result of incidents and accidents. 

[sandrabbit]

8 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

No expert and do not claim to be.

 

Whatever satellite data that they have would have been examined in microscopic detail right from the start of this investigation. Hard to believe that they are coming up with new interpretations of that data at this late stage.

 

But if satellite data is indicating a '' high and increasing rate of descent in its final moments '' would this not indicate that the plane came down very steep and fast therefore making the crash site more easily pinpointed.

 

The severe lack of floating debris is indeed a mystery.

They're just confirming the original data .....

[Chicog]

I think it's a stretch. All of the debris found so far is consistent with a low speed, controlled, full flaps ditching in my opinion.

This is what an uncontrolled low speed ditching looks like. If it had gone in at high speed there would be lots of bits.

 

 

Why don't they go to one of the aircraft graveyards and find an old one to play with?

[sandrabbit]

21 minutes ago, Chicog said:

I think it's a stretch. All of the debris found so far is consistent with a low speed, controlled, full flaps ditching in my opinion.

This is what an uncontrolled low speed ditching looks like. If it had gone in at high speed there would be lots of bits.

 

 

Why don't they go to one of the aircraft graveyards and find an old one to play with?

That wasn't uncontrolled, they had run out of fuel because the hijackers and governments in the area couldn't agree about refuelling.

 

They already know that the flaperon wasn't extended so flaps weren't extended by a pilot. I know from when I had a ppl that a Cessna or similar would almost recover from a stall by itself due to airspeed over the wing when the aircraft was diving due to the stall creating suction/lift. The Air France flight which crashed in the Atlantic due to the 2nd pilot stalling the aircraft fell tail first, maybe this was a nose down stall and the aircraft stalled into the sea because it had already gained airspeed then stalled?. Just an idea..

Edited November 2, 2016 by sandrabbit

[gchurch259]

Bottom line, they will not know until and if they find the remains. I for one believe one of the pilots flew the aircraft until it ran out of fuel. He could have stalled at the last few feet be for hitting the water.

 

i also believe every one on board except the pilot at the controls was dead from anoxia when it made the climb to max service ceiling and then descended back down. The one flying the aircraft at that time only needed to shut off the air conditioning system and depressurization the aircraft, while getting stayed on the Crew Oxygen System.

 

We may never know!

[elgordo38]

18 hours ago, Cook my sock said:

There are, but Malaysian airlines hadn't paid the fees.. this was only reported recently and the plane shouldn't have been in the air basically

Is not paying the fees just another technicality. Where is IATA in all of this? They should at least give you a free copy of the Koran/Bible to read on the plane to pass the time. 

[SaintLouisBlues]

1 minute ago, elgordo38 said:

Is not paying the fees just another technicality. Where is IATA in all of this? They should at least give you a free copy of the Koran/Bible to read on the plane to pass the time. 

Only if you fly Gideons Air surely?

[elgordo38]

1 minute ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

Only if you fly Gideons Air surely?

 

1 minute ago, SaintLouisBlues said:

Only if you fly Gideons Air surely?

Yes great people. I like their inobtrusive policy. Its there if you want to use it. 

[Cook my sock]

If there was a slow fire in the hold or under the cockpit(tyre), maybe that's the reason the pilot climbed.
But it doesn't quite explain the lack of mayday, unless systems were knocked out

[boomerangutang]

I maintain that the pilot was on a suicide / mass murder mission because he was angry/depressed by his friend Anwar getting unfairly criminalized, the day before.  The pilot was a big fan of Anwar and attended the court the day before the flight.  Plus, though the pilot had a busy calendar prior, he had zero activity planned on his calendar for the days following the fateful flight.  

 

Another mystery:   Anwar's attorney died in a car wreck, a few nights after the plane disappeared.  The attorney was going to be interviewed re; what he might know of the pilot.  A small truck crashed head on into the Attorney's car.  The truck driver was ok, and never prosecuted for anything. Too weird.

[Basil B]

On 02/11/2016 at 5:27 PM, gchurch259 said:

Bottom line, they will not know until and if they find the remains. I for one believe one of the pilots flew the aircraft until it ran out of fuel. He could have stalled at the last few feet be for hitting the water.

 

i also believe every one on board except the pilot at the controls was dead from anoxia when it made the climb to max service ceiling and then descended back down. The one flying the aircraft at that time only needed to shut off the air conditioning system and depressurization the aircraft, while getting stayed on the Crew Oxygen System.

 

We may never know!

 

I doubt he was alive then... given that he knew what was going to happen he probably after setting a final course in the Auto Pilot, he removed his oxygen mask and died of hypoxia many hours before the plane ran out of fuel.

[Xircal]

On 11/2/2016 at 11:37 AM, elgordo38 said:

All this bloody hoopla and in this golden age of IT we cannot put a tracker on a plane to follow its flight path just bloody incredible. 

 

There's one on every aircraft already: it's called a transponder. In the case of MH370 one of the pilots inexplicably shut it down.

[Xircal]

On 11/3/2016 at 8:56 AM, Cook my sock said:

If there was a slow fire in the hold or under the cockpit(tyre), maybe that's the reason the pilot climbed.
But it doesn't quite explain the lack of mayday, unless systems were knocked out

 

The pilot most likely climbed to a flight level high enough to incapacitate everyone onboard. The oxygen masks would have dropped down automatically, but they only provide ten minutes of oxygen after which everyone would lose consciousness.

 

Since the transponder which transmits a signal to identify where the aircraft is located at any given moment was shutdown everything points to pilot suicide which was perpetrated in a carefully controlled manner.

 

[Prbkk]

We know from the Payne Stewart and Helios accidents that the planes continue on the set course even though everyone onboard is dead ( bar 1 in the Helios crash, as observed by the Greek fighter pilots).

While the idea of a non-violent, hypoxia death might be of some comfort to families, this non recovery must be extraordinarily difficult for them.

[gk10002000]

4 hours ago, Xircal said:

 

There's one on every aircraft already: it's called a transponder. In the case of MH370 one of the pilots inexplicably shut it down.

The air traffic control transponder isn't much use over broad ocean area because there is no ATC signal to interrogate it.  They were lucky they had a little INMARSAT connectivity from which they could reconstruct the probably flight path from the frequency doppler data.  There is still a lot of room for error.  I don't think their conclusion or suggestion about somebody at the controls or not has much meaning.  Somebody could be at the controls and high speed diving it as the case in that german plane crash.  I think the pilot did some things intentionally and then it was a comedy of errors.  The air machine cabin pressurization system failed, rapid decompression, etc.  Hard to imagine a plane flying for hours on crude autopilot but it is possible.

[gchurch259]

11 hours ago, Basil B said:

 

I doubt he was alive then... given that he knew what was going to happen he probably after setting a final course in the Auto Pilot, he removed his oxygen mask and died of hypoxia many hours before the plane ran out of fuel.

The Crew Oxygen System/Bottle contains enough for a Crew of Four to last about an hour or less. So one man might last 3 to four  hours if not panic breathing.

 

However; once the passengers and other Pilot were thought to be dead he could turn on the Air conditioning system and pressurize the aircraft.

[Basil B]

6 hours ago, gchurch259 said:

The Crew Oxygen System/Bottle contains enough for a Crew of Four to last about an hour or less. So one man might last 3 to four  hours if not panic breathing.

 

However; once the passengers and other Pilot were thought to be dead he could turn on the Air conditioning system and pressurize the aircraft.

Still think once he thought everyone on board was dead he may well set the final coarse and having nothing else to do just shut his oxygen off.

[Xircal]

13 hours ago, gk10002000 said:

The air traffic control transponder isn't much use over broad ocean area because there is no ATC signal to interrogate it.  They were lucky they had a little INMARSAT connectivity from which they could reconstruct the probably flight path from the frequency doppler data.  There is still a lot of room for error.  I don't think their conclusion or suggestion about somebody at the controls or not has much meaning.  Somebody could be at the controls and high speed diving it as the case in that german plane crash.  I think the pilot did some things intentionally and then it was a comedy of errors.  The air machine cabin pressurization system failed, rapid decompression, etc.  Hard to imagine a plane flying for hours on crude autopilot but it is possible.

 

You're correct in what you mentioned about the transponder not being of much use when flying over water. GPS would be a good alternative but hasn't been adopted due to the cost I suspect: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-26544554

 

But an aircraft can fly on autopilot for hours on end as was illustrated by the Helios Airways Flight 522 which departed Cyprus at 09:07 and subsequently crashed into a Greek mountain at 12:04 when it ran out of fuel. The crew had become incapacitated due to a lack of oxygen.