this is what is also behind the facade of the Pattaya condominium market?

[mcfish]

I thought the official method was by counting washing on balconies now? That appears to superseded the night lights on at night method, both from very highly respected posters here who drive around checking these things, there names are.. Errrmm...

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[JSixpack]

4 hours ago, Asiantravel said:

Bottom line is even if you rely on the Colliers best case scenario, how many years is it going to take to absorb 17,000 with current global economic conditions?

 

Who cares? And what figure have our urban planners arrived at as the minimum number of permissible years? Actually a nonsensical question as it childishly assumes that number is somehow fixed, as in our fixed pie. And it naively assumes global economic conditions can't change or that those particular conditions will definitely outweigh other conditions. 

 

As condos are sold--or not--others are built, so that there has always been what TVF posters consider a glut--and there always will be, gasp! esp. considering that even the lights in condos long ago sold out are mostly not on, far as we can tell from our bar stools. Though it's very TVF to think that the ones built first must be sold first of course, that won't be the case.

 

So, after five pages we conclude what was concluded yearly for the last 10 years or more: that we don't actually know how many unsold condos there are, we know there're too many for what we've determined as optimal, we prophecy again the great Condo Crash, and we're just completely mystified as to why it hasn't happened but it must be real soon now. :)

 

Next.

Edited November 29, 2016 by JSixpack

[Naam]

7 hours ago, JSixpack said:

So, after five pages we conclude what was concluded yearly for the last 10 years or more: that we don't actually know how many unsold condos there are, we know there're too many for what we've determined as optimal, we prophecy again the great Condo Crash, and we're just completely mystified as to why it hasn't happened but it must be real soon now. :)

hallelujah AMEN!

[Naam]

the underlying factor of the decade long alleged condo crash, Thai economy crash and last not least Thai Baht crash is the wishful thinking of many that their lifestyle will improve by causing cheaper rents, cheaper street food and cheaper beer. 

[mcfish]

the underlying factor of the decade long alleged condo crash, Thai economy crash and last not least Thai Baht crash is the wishful thinking of many that their lifestyle will improve by causing cheaper rents, cheaper street food and cheaper beer. 

Thailand has always had a secret department called the prop ups. They make sure the Baht is propped, condo prices are propped and are hard at work propping up the economy for the last 20 years or so. I shouldn't even be typing this but I want the truth to be told!

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[Asiantravel]

12 hours ago, JSixpack said:

 

Who cares? And what figure have our urban planners arrived at as the minimum number of permissible years? Actually a nonsensical question as it childishly assumes that number is somehow fixed, as in our fixed pie. And it naively assumes global economic conditions can't change or that those particular conditions will definitely outweigh other conditions. 

 

As condos are sold--or not--others are built, so that there has always been what TVF posters consider a glut--and there always will be, gasp! esp. considering that even the lights in condos long ago sold out are mostly not on, far as we can tell from our bar stools. Though it's very TVF to think that the ones built first must be sold first of course, that won't be the case.

 

So, after five pages we conclude what was concluded yearly for the last 10 years or more: that we don't actually know how many unsold condos there are, we know there're too many for what we've determined as optimal, we prophecy again the great Condo Crash, and we're just completely mystified as to why it hasn't happened but it must be real soon now. :)

 

Next.

 

 

And you don’t think affordability has got anything to do with it? What is naive is to think global economic conditions can change at all without a far better outlook for wage increases and job growth generally .

Figures in your own country prove this. Home ownership in USA has fallen to 62.9% reaching lows not seen in a half a century.

[JSixpack]

11 minutes ago, Asiantravel said:

And you don’t think affordability has got anything to do with it? What is naive is to think global economic conditions can change at all without a far better outlook for wage increases and job growth generally .

Figures in your own country prove this. Home ownership in USA has fallen to 62.9% reaching lows not seen in a half a century.

 

Edited November 30, 2016 by JSixpack

[Asiantravel]

 

If these conditions can happen in Melbourne and Brisbane why not in Pattaya ? ( similar scenario in Toronto and Vancouver )

 

Quote

 

Mirvac said it experienced a rise in the default rate for the settlement of off-the-plan residential sales,above its historic average of 1 per cent.

 

On Friday, HSBC said an oversupply of apartments in Melbourne and Brisbane could send unit prices down by as much as 6 per cent in 2017.

 The apartment building boom, an ongoing concern for the Reserve Bank of Australia, especially in inner city Melbourne is likely to "start showing through" in price drops of between 2 per cent and 6 per cent in that city next year, HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said in a note.

 

 It's a similar story in Brisbane where apartment prices are forecast to fall by as much as 4 per cent.

 "A national apartment building boom, which has been part of the rebalancing act, is likely to deliver some oversupply in the Melbourne and Brisbane apartment markets, which is expected to see apartment price falls in these markets," Mr Bloxham said.

 

 

 

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/scott-morrison-eases-limits-on-foreign-buyers-as-apartment-glut-looms-20161124-gsxb9g

Edited November 30, 2016 by Asiantravel

[mcfish]

I remember the sub prime crisis that smashed American real estate to peices and just before that we had the usual don't buy in Thailand, by a house back home and rent it where it safe and guess what those guys lost it all, up to 80 percent slashed off homes across the USA and Thailand was completely untouched,!
That brought me a lot of joy, don't buy in the USA what you can't afford to lose ahahaha!

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[smedly]

as I have said before, the property market here does not respond to any of the pressures triggers we see in the west for a very simple reason -

 

The margins are huge so it takes a lot longer for developers to become exposed to market trends i.e. there is no urgency to sell because building construction costs are so low, they only need to sell 1 in 4 or 5 units to break even so they can wait long periods and still hold the asking price at highly inflated rates, sell 1 in 4 or 5 to break even, there will always be buyers because older farangs come here with cash after selling property in the west or getting pension lump sums etc and make a cash purchase thinking they got a bargain,  in the west buying property is entirely different with first time buyers taking out 25 year mortgages etc - an entirely different landscape

 

The property market here would need to remain stagnant for several years before developers come under pressure to reduce prices and offload empty unsold units

[mcfish]

Thailand has by far out performed the states in the last 8 years that's all that matters, you can't take that away by gazing in your crystal ball lol

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[Asiantravel]

58 minutes ago, smedly said:

as I have said before, the property market here does not respond to any of the pressures triggers we see in the west for a very simple reason -

 

The margins are huge so it takes a lot longer for developers to become exposed to market trends i.e. there is no urgency to sell because building construction costs are so low, they only need to sell 1 in 4 or 5 units to break even so they can wait long periods and still hold the asking price at highly inflated rates, sell 1 in 4 or 5 to break even, there will always be buyers because older farangs come here with cash after selling property in the west or getting pension lump sums etc and make a cash purchase thinking they got a bargain,  in the west buying property is entirely different with first time buyers taking out 25 year mortgages etc - an entirely different landscape

 

The property market here would need to remain stagnant for several years before developers come under pressure to reduce prices and offload empty unsold units

 

things won't remain stagnant for very long if interest rates go up

 

[ffaarraanngg]

Got to love the boomers and western property owners on here, spouting out that back home in Blighty or America there is some way of gauging what fair value is.

 

The British property market is the most rigged market in the history of this planet, the nation destroying LIBLABCON scum in charge have came up with 0.5% (0.25) interest rates for coming up to a decade.... they have bailed out banks who for a decade gave mortgages to any fool who could sign his name 125% mortgages with some banks ... if this hadnt happened we would have seen prices hit some kind of normality .... we then had Funding for Lending 1-2-3 where the BoE gives money to the banks to lend to Buytolet landlords with ultra low interest rates for what is effectively a gamble on prices rising forever .... there is £26 billion spent on housing benefit to keep rents artificially high .... they've come up with Help to buy 1 where the state gifts 20% of the price of a new build to the financially retarded ... then Help to buy 2 which is similar but for older houses and anyone can apply .... then Help to Buy London where the state gifts people 40% to buy a new build 1 bed  flat in Brixton with prices starting from £500,000.  There are many other scams the state has used to rig the price of property so its unaffordable to working families though these are the main ones.

 

But many people on here some how seem to think the Pattaye property market with little mortgage availability, so property is bought for cash....  a market where the Thai government has a laissez faire attitude that puts the crony capitalist west to shame some how does not offer an ability to gauge fair value in such a way as the wonderful west does.

 

Now when Thailand starts copying the west with some of the items i've listed above i can see you may have a point up until that time you might aswell accept prices are not too far off .... so long as you don't expect an easy resale.

 

Crikey i bet some of you boomers even think you earned your epic house price inflation don't you!

Edited December 2, 2016 by ffaarraanngg

[smedly]

1 hour ago, ffaarraanngg said:

Got to love the boomers and western property owners on here, spouting out that back home in Blighty or America there is some way of gauging what fair value is.

 

The British property market is the most rigged market in the history of this planet, the nation destroying LIBLABCON scum in charge have came up with 0.5% (0.25) interest rates for coming up to a decade.... they have bailed out banks who for a decade gave mortgages to any fool who could sign his name 125% mortgages with some banks ... if this hadnt happened we would have seen prices hit some kind of normality .... we then had Funding for Lending 1-2-3 where the BoE gives money to the banks to lend to Buytolet landlords with ultra low interest rates for what is effectively a gamble on prices rising forever .... there is £26 billion spent on housing benefit to keep rents artificially high .... they've come up with Help to buy 1 where the state gifts 20% of the price of a new build to the financially retarded ... then Help to buy 2 which is similar but for older houses and anyone can apply .... then Help to Buy London where the state gifts people 40% to buy a new build 1 bed  flat in Brixton with prices starting from £500,000.  There are many other scams the state has used to rig the price of property so its unaffordable to working families though these are the main ones.

 

But many people on here some how seem to think the Pattaye property market with little mortgage availability, so property is bought for cash....  a market where the Thai government has a laissez faire attitude that puts the crony capitalist west to shame some how does not offer an ability to gauge fair value in such a way as the wonderful west does.

 

Now when Thailand starts copying the west with some of the items i've listed above i can see you may have a point up until that time you might aswell accept prices are not too far off .... so long as you don't expect an easy resale.

 

Crikey i bet some of you boomers even think you earned your epic house price inflation don't you!

what a complete pile of nonsense, if some incentives need to be provide to stir interest in property in the west then that is what it is, as I pointed out earlier - the market drivers in the west are entirely different to here - first time buyers - mortgages - inflation and much more

 

In Pattaya - most properties are bought for cash by elderly cashed up farang - rich Thais with ill gotten gains (effectively laundering)  

 

what exactly is your interest in this

[KittenKong]

1 hour ago, ffaarraanngg said:

But many people on here some how seem to think the Pattaye property market with little mortgage availability, so property is bought for cash.

 

Farangs pay cash, much of which seems to be of murky origin.

 

Many Thais buy on credit which seems to be very easy for them to obtain.

[Rimmer]

Multiple off topic posts discussing Miami that are hijacking the topic have been removed

[pattayalover]

They built too many condo because some guys were buying them, to resell the contract 3 days later to a sucker
trying to make a quick cash.

Been in these open days with show room and free drink, they told me to buy now only 3 condo remaining yalali yalala.... .

I needed to deposit 10k they told me. (what the f...why should I pay 10k? Contracf booking or just to make you feel you must hurry up because if you don't pay now 10k they Wil sell to somebody else waiting.
)
Some ladies told me their boyfriends bought 3 condo same day. Yeah sure Baby, your thai bf is broke i m sure and u think I m dumb or what? (we know they all lie and tell you lot of bs for a sale). They say yes to everything you ask anyway. Even one day I asked if they give me a condo for free. And lady said yes. Lol...

... They didn't buy 3 condo, they purchased 3 condos . That is a big difference. Hellooo?

Now result is plenty of unpaid condo. Not resold contract and 20000 half finished projects all over Pattaya .

This is why it s a kaput market. U can even ask buy 1 get 1 for free and hang up(you deal now, you run the circus , they must shut it up and listen ) . They will call back 2 days later that they accept your offer.

Their contract and payment plan, you must be a total idiot to pay what they want. You make the contract and you make you own payment plan. They don't agree? Just leave. You have nothing to lose anyway. The condo are crap anyway, show rooms look OK but when project finished, run far away if you want stay alive. Water leaks and electric is built by unprofessional. What do you expect in Thailand? .
Even guys got trash just in Front of their balcony. how sweet is that.? You pay a fortune and your life become miserable.... And now the say retirement visa will cost 3 millions baths deposit , are they kidding us or what?

Thailand, get real once in your life. You can not have the milk and the cow. They really take farangs for idiots.

[ffaarraanngg]

6 hours ago, KittenKong said:

 

Farangs pay cash, much of which seems to be of murky origin.

 

Many Thais buy on credit which seems to be very easy for them to obtain.

Cash buyers are the market whether they got the money dubiously or not. People using cash and not  state backed debt is the best way to enable price discovery.

 

And to go along with your claim that Thais get easy mortgages - As Thais are unlikely to be able to rent these flats out for much of the year i can only presume they're paying the mortgage themselves so again there is nothing here that is causing the market to be artificial. If the banks are lending badly they will go bust as Thailand is more capitalist than the socialist  west.

 

If anything i would say what rigs the market in Thailand is the fact developers can hold on to developments for years with only part of them being sold ... either they built with cash which seems unlikely though could be correct or the banks are rolling over the debt at low rates and keeping the flats as collateral. Enabling them to hold onto them for years.

 

 

[KittenKong]

5 minutes ago, ffaarraanngg said:

And to go along with your claim that Thais get easy mortgages - As Thais are unlikely to be able to rent these flats out for much of the year i can only presume they're paying the mortgage themselves so again there is nothing here that is causing the market to be artificial.

 

Condos here are extensively marketed as offering good rental potential. Both Thais and farangs seem to lap this up, with promises of guaranteed rental returns for several years of anything up to 12% per year. On paper this income is shown as exceeding the costs of the credit used to buy the unit, which seems very attractive. But it isnt realistic and if the promised renters dont materialise then the credit repayment money will have to be found elsewhere, which may not be easy for many Thais.

 

I would describe this as artificial.

 

 

8 minutes ago, ffaarraanngg said:

Cash buyers are the market whether they got the money dubiously or not. People using cash and not  state backed debt is the best way to enable price discovery.

 

There is only so much dodgy money around and people who have it are quite limited in what they can do with it. Buying Pattaya condos is one option for them, but that cant go on forever.

[ffaarraanngg]

45 minutes ago, KittenKong said:

 

Condos here are extensively marketed as offering good rental potential. Both Thais and farangs seem to lap this up, with promises of guaranteed rental returns for several years of anything up to 12% per year. On paper this income is shown as exceeding the costs of the credit used to buy the unit, which seems very attractive. But it isnt realistic and if the promised renters dont materialise then the credit repayment money will have to be found elsewhere, which may not be easy for many Thais.

 

I would describe this as artificial.

 

I used to sell property in East Europe to greedy Brits and many agents used to offer this guaranteed rental, but it was more like 4-5% on offer i've never seen 12%. But people with the slightest bit of  intelligence will know this is just a marketing gimmick and to suggest such lies will effect prices is clutching at straws.

 

But if these people can't pay the debt then the bank will repossess and sell at whatever price they can get thus setting the market price. 

 

You could say that the rigged UK housing market and QE and ZIRP in the West pours into Thailands property market meaning price discovery can't happen. But i have blind hope that Donald Trump will end this fraud. Without western boomers coming to Pattaya with the excesses of their unearned house price inflation this will surely have an impact.

 

 

 

 

[smedly]

This thread is about Thailand and specifically pattaya property market, it is highly inflated and takes advantage of older farangs coming here with cash and also rich Thais buying up at ridiculous prices for a 3rd world country, corruption has enriched many here, there are very few units sold using borrowed money, markup is at least 500% allowing developers to hold the price artificially high for long periods of time as they only need to sell 1 in 5 to break even, it is a scam of the highest proportions. 

[ffaarraanngg]

1 minute ago, smedly said:

This thread is about Thailand and specifically pattaya property market, it is highly inflated and takes advantage of older farangs coming here with cash and also rich Thais buying up at ridiculous prices for a 3rd world country, corruption has enriched many here, there are very few units sold using borrowed money, markup is at least 500% allowing developers to hold the price artificially high for long periods of time as they only need to sell 1 in 5 to break even, it is a scam of the highest proportions. 

And i am showing why it is somewhat of a  free market and giving you examples of what is going on in the crony capitalist west to highlight why. It just seems that folk on here don't like where they claim the money that buys these apartments has come from.

 

And i also give you examples of why older westerners have been gifted free money from their state backed house price inflation that has poured into Thailand/Pattaya. 

 

One thing you can guarantee with Pattaya though is the average worker is priced out by this money pouring in and they will never buy more then a shack some distance from the dark side. And people wonder why Pattaya youths seem to be at war with each other ... when they've no chance of getting a foothold in society this is the outcome.

 

 

[champers]

Ffaarraanngg, you seem to have a rather large chip on your shoulder about Westerners and their inflated house prices. I didn't inflate the price of my house in the UK. It is inaction by successive governments failing to address an acute housing shortage  that has led to supply failing to meet demand. That is a basic tenet of economics. In Pattaya the reverse is true: supply greatly exceeds demand. 

 

[KittenKong]

2 hours ago, ffaarraanngg said:

I used to sell property in East Europe to greedy Brits and many agents used to offer this guaranteed rental, but it was more like 4-5% on offer i've never seen 12%. But people with the slightest bit of  intelligence will know this is just a marketing gimmick and to suggest such lies will effect prices is clutching at straws.

 

Within a few minutes' drive of my condo there are various giant signs promising guaranteed returns of 7%, 10% and 12%. Thais are not the most financially astute people and many of them are indeed completely taken in by ridiculous promises and scams, and many more will willingly spend more than they can sensibly afford if they think it makes them look "big" and will impress the family back home. The lack of serious consumer protection here just makes such lies and scams more likely and some farangs may also be tricked into believing them simply because they would be completely prohibited where they come from.

 

And you really dont have to look very far on social media here to find people complaining that they didnt get what was promised them in the off-plan condo advertising or in their purchase contract.

[Naam]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

markup is at least 500%

only?

[ffaarraanngg]

1 hour ago, Naam said:

only?

Anyone want to go in business, build 100 apartments, sell 15-20 then as this has paid off the entire build we can convert the rest into a hotel.

 

We'll be rich, rich i tells ya!

 

 

[ffaarraanngg]

2 hours ago, champers said:

Ffaarraanngg, you seem to have a rather large chip on your shoulder about Westerners and their inflated house prices. I didn't inflate the price of my house in the UK. It is inaction by successive governments failing to address an acute housing shortage  that has led to supply failing to meet demand. That is a basic tenet of economics. In Pattaya the reverse is true: supply greatly exceeds demand. 

 

I've got a gigantic chip on my shoulder about state funded house bubbles that price out a generation, anyone who thinks this ok is an arse. Im also to an extent a capitalist so despise socialism for the rich which is what we have in the west, its blatant thieving whats happening just you're of the generation that won so you're too blind and ignorant to see it.

 

And you're showing signs of financial retardation by spouting out the Gorbles like propaganda we hear daily that its supply and demand, when western governments are printing trillions of pounds which mostly goes directly to mortgage lending and then we have near ZIRP just to make this loose lending the cheapest in the history of mankind. Unless of course you are telling me its supple and demand of cheap and loose debt.

 

If the Thai developers can't sell they will go out of business and prices will crash, as i don't know the intricate details of the Thai property market and prices are rising steadily in THB it would seem that supply and demand are pretty much in sync.

 

Wonder if people holding NZD and AUD are complaining about prices in Thailand at the moment.

[champers]

I think you'll find that the housing bubble started when Maggie Thatcher allowed people to purchase their council homes at heavily discounted prices, but didn't allow councils to fund new stock. She wasn't a socialist - as far from it as you could get. I am no fan of printing money to prop up the economy but in the UK no-one has printed more money than the Tories. That would be the same Tories who are cosying up to the Chinese to get their money into the UK. Now they are Socialists.

[smedly]

5 hours ago, ffaarraanngg said:

I've got a gigantic chip on my shoulder about state funded house bubbles that price out a generation, anyone who thinks this ok is an arse.

just so you know, I read part of a post you made a while ago to which I replied, since then I have read maybe at most the first sentence of the rest of your replies and posts on this thread simply because they are not worth reading.

 

I also believe you are someway involved in property in Thailand - either part of it or an owner who might have realised you have been a fool

[ffaarraanngg]

2 minutes ago, smedly said:

just so you know, I read part of a post you made a while ago to which I replied, since then I have read maybe at most the first sentence of the rest of your replies and posts on this thread simply because they are not worth reading.

 

I also believe you are someway involved in property in Thailand - either part of it or an owner who might have realised you have been a fool

It seems you've not read much in your life. But its sad we can't go into business and build 100 apartments and flog 15-20 as there is at least 500% profit in them we could have become rich!

 

I'm bugger all to do with Thailand in any way shape or form, just someone who is exceptionally well versed in state rigged property bubbles of which i believe Thailand is not such an example.