Baht depreciation expected

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, oldhippy said:

I certainly do not pretend to have the answers, but at least I know that I don't have the answers - therefore I know more than all those famous experts combined.

Sure you do.

[oldhippy]

Just now, SheungWan said:

Sure you do.

I would go 1 step further:

I do not know the answers, because there are no answers.

And that is my final answer.

 

[oldhippy]

We are now on our yearly Europe trip.

Currently "investing" my money in Madeira, nice rental apartment, good weather & wine, pleasant people - the "Return on Investment" rate is (blue) sky high!

 

I earned my money in the real economy, I have never had the desire to risk it in the financial superstructure.

 

And back on topic: once again I predict that the baht will possibly go up. Or it may go down. After that has happened, the experts will give us a perfect explanation for what has happened.

 

 

[lucjoker]

15 hours ago, talahtnut said:

Wise moves, but perhaps you should have bought Bitcoin.

dont know this , an thus not save enough for me .

If they stop the bitcoin tomorrow.........and they can,dont doubt that.

[coulson]

On 10/6/2017 at 5:16 AM, oldhippy said:

I predict that the baht will possibly go up. Or it may go down

I completely agree with you.

 

[talahtnut]

29 minutes ago, coulson said:

I completely agree with you.

 

I predict it might stay where it is for today

[oldhippy]

10 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

I predict it might stay where it is for today

The baht is stable as a rock, it never moves, never did, never will.

Those other currencies however......

[sirineou]

9 minutes ago, oldhippy said:

The baht is stable as a rock, it never moves, never did, never will.

Those other currencies however......

I remember it was about 33 to 1 USD when I first came here about 13 years ago , it went up a litle, and it went down a litle since then, but I get about 33 today , so I am inclined to agree.

[Naam]

2 hours ago, sirineou said:

I remember it was about 33 to 1 USD when I first came here about 13 years ago , it went up a litle, and it went down a litle since then, but I get about 33 today , so I am inclined to agree.

you are "slightly" off either with the year or the exchange rate

[ajarntingtong]

There is a lot of garbage being talked here. NO government wants to see inflation at anything above a minimal level, otherwise it becomes a spiral that goes out of control. In a depressed economy, banks don't want to see interest rate increases (as has been said earlier) as they increase debt defaults. There are other tools for managing money supply (such as statutory reserve deposits and LGS ratios (liquid assets and government securities). And it would be incredulous if the US used interest rates to lift its exchange rate and thus make its exports more expensive on the world market.

[joeyg]

On 11/26/2016 at 11:10 AM, 12DrinkMore said:

 

The answer is : nobody has a clue, but there are any number of economists with opinions on the matter.

 

There are two main stories, (but there are other things going on)

 

1. Central banks want to keep the finance system running. To do this the debts have to be paid and new debts taken out. Central banks like inflation, because historically it has led to wage inflation, so the old debts are easier to be paid off. Unfortunately for them the world's economy is becoming very efficient at making and transporting stuff very cheaply, and with global competition companies simply cannot afford to give wage increases. This has led to stagnant living standards in a lot of developed economies. Japan is a prime example.

 

Lower interest rates are supposed to cause inflation, but this mechanism is not direct and possibly has never worked except in real estate. So the CB are now mostly using 'forward guidance' to 'set inflation expectations'. Aka if the peeps believe, it will come to be.

 

Unfortunately savers like us are not required anymore, as central banks will provide enough liquidity at low interest rates for the banks to balance their books each day. They want you to spend, not save, so that your money, which was created by somebody else going into debt, can end up paying off a debt somewhere in the system.

 

2. Governments like to keep the exchange rate down to increase exports and increase spending on domestic goods. A lower interest rate will tend to sink the currency. This is a two edged sword, as a lot of manufactured stuff relies on imports. The UK is in a particularly bad spot, as they have been importing way more stuff than exporting for decades and Draghi is still rampaging about every month buying another EUR 70,000,000,000 (may be more now) worth of bonds and charging banks to keep money on his books.

Very nice summation.  Answered a few of my questions.

[joeyg]

On 11/26/2016 at 10:27 AM, fvw53 said:

Is somebody really able to predict the economy : even Fed Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan had no clue of the crash until the day it happened in 2008.

A good economy is where the people believe it is good

A bad economy is where the people believe it is bad

The investors are like a bunch of small dogs : if one dog pees against a tree...all the dogs rush to this tree...until one starts to bark and panic hits

Actually Greenspan gave several serious warnings before the 2008 crash.  Paying attention saved my butt a lot of cash!!!

 

[talahtnut]

15 hours ago, joeyg said:

Actually Greenspan gave several serious warnings before the 2008 crash.  Paying attention saved my butt a lot of cash!!!

 

Economists are all different and wrong.  Rothschilde and the cabal are have full control.

 

[Naam]

14 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Economists are all different and wrong.  Rothschilde and the cabal are have full control.

not to forget the Illuminati and the Ferengi from planet Feringinar who jointly own most of the worlds central banks and stole all the gold from Fort Knox.  

[joeyg]

37 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Economists are all different and wrong.  Rothschilde and the cabal are have full control.

 

Yep your right.  Greenspan did give "a heads up" though before the crash  for those that were paying attention.

[talahtnut]

16 hours ago, Naam said:

not to forget the Illuminati and the Ferengi from planet Feringinar who jointly own most of the worlds central banks and stole all the gold from Fort Knox.  

Those Ferengi are light fingered little sods. Someone needs to grass em up.

[lannarebirth]

On 10/29/2017 at 8:47 AM, ajarntingtong said:

There is a lot of garbage being talked here. NO government wants to see inflation at anything above a minimal level, otherwise it becomes a spiral that goes out of control. In a depressed economy, banks don't want to see interest rate increases (as has been said earlier) as they increase debt defaults. There are other tools for managing money supply (such as statutory reserve deposits and LGS ratios (liquid assets and government securities). And it would be incredulous if the US used interest rates to lift its exchange rate and thus make its exports more expensive on the world market.

All debtors with fixed rate debt love inflation. Inflation tends to pump up revenues and decrease the relative cost of existing debt. Governments by and large are debtors these days.

[joeyg]

On 10/7/2017 at 8:24 PM, sirineou said:

I remember it was about 33 to 1 USD when I first came here about 13 years ago , it went up a litle, and it went down a litle since then, but I get about 33 today , so I am inclined to agree.

I was here in 97 when it was 57 to the $ for a few weeks.  I'm guessing you missed that...

 

[tonray]

35 minutes ago, joeyg said:

I was here in 97 when it was 57 to the $ for a few weeks.  I'm guessing you missed that...

 

That would be great if it ever happened again....45 % discount on that 6 mil condo...one can dream

[joeyg]

2 hours ago, tonray said:

That would be great if it ever happened again....45 % discount on that 6 mil condo...one can dream

LOL that would have been about 3 mil for starters at that time...

[Naam]

On 11/26/2016 at 6:13 AM, rooster59 said:

BANGKOK:-- THE EXPECTED policy-rate increase by the US Federal Reserve next month would result in the baht deprecating for at least two quarters consecutively, and Thai companies that plan to raise finances from bonds would face rising funding costs, according to Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri).

yawn

 

[farcanell]

This is good information guys... thanks for continuing it.

 

I’m planning on moving money out of Thailand, so what happens to the “superbaht” (as it has been labeled in an article I read) is an issue to watch.... probably best done sooner than later.

[Naam]

4 hours ago, farcanell said:

This is good information guys... thanks for continuing it.

 

I’m planning on moving money out of Thailand, so what happens to the “superbaht” (as it has been labeled in an article I read) is an issue to watch.... probably best done sooner than later.

perhaps you should look at facts and realise that for the last 16 years there were only a few periods when it paid to move out of the Baht into another currency. 

[farcanell]

15 hours ago, Naam said:

perhaps you should look at facts and realise that for the last 16 years there were only a few periods when it paid to move out of the Baht into another currency. 

But move it I must..... preferably as advantageously as possible....

 

i brought it in near 30 baht per dollar.... going out paying 24 baht per dollar works..... right?

[Naam]

44 minutes ago, farcanell said:

i brought it in near 30 baht per dollar.... going out paying 24 baht per dollar works..... right?

if you are talking AUD not USD you are right.

[lannarebirth]

There exists a great deal of support for the USD:THB between 31.5 - 32.5 . It should bounce somewhere in here, if only a small amount. That it has not speaks to its strength and probable course. 200 day ma is in a sharp downtrend and the 200 week ma has now gone flat and is near reversal of trend.

[Winkburn]

On 11/26/2016 at 7:34 AM, NeverSure said:

The US is in the slowest recovery from recession since WWII. Never in the past 8 years has GDP increased by even 3%. There are way too many Americans out of the workforce and way too many receiving welfare and food stamps. The extremely long time that interest rates have been at historic lows is a strong indicator of those. That's not just interest on the Fed's T Bill rate but interest rates on home and car loans, etc. These low rates were meant to stimulate borrowing and spending.

 

I have no idea how the Fed can raise interest rates in this environment. Time will tell.

 

Cheers.

How lucky there is now a President that has brought a decrease in unemployment and a positive economy in just 12 months credit where credit is due 

[Winkburn]

On 7/7/2017 at 7:56 AM, IMA_FARANG said:

This is old news from 2016.

This is mid 2017 now, and the Baht is , in my opinion, benefiting from the decline in the dollar especially Donald  Dumbo Trump in the U.S.

A year ago the U.S. dollar was up above 35 Baht to a dollar.

Just got my U.S. pension for July 2017 and the  Dollar/baht rate was down blow 34 baht to a Dollar. (33.83)

The markets hate uncertainty and Donald Dumbo Trump scares them.

Frankly, he scares me also.

 

 

 

Yes blame the Don.. Economy booming unemployment falling to it's lowest in 8 years it must be Hilary's credit. The Thai baht is almost pegged to the $US

[Winkburn]

On 11/26/2016 at 8:46 AM, scotchonrocks said:

The US economy will pay a heavy price. Hikes in interests rates are done to put the brakes on a booming economy. The US economy is in the doldrums and even a small interest rate hike will be a dampener for growth and will tank the stock market. They are clearly worried that cheap debt must end but what are they going to do when investment contracts and deflation takes hold because for sure that's what will happen.

 

Get real Janet Yellen!

In the Doldrums?? record high stock prices and falling unemployment or am I missing something??

[lannarebirth]

We have liftoff!