Turkey's President Erdogan threatens Europe with new wave of refugees

[thaibeachlovers]

16 hours ago, Xircal said:

 

The problem with a no-fly zone in this particular case is that enforcing it is likely to bring the US into direct military confrontation with Russia.

 

Perhaps a better idea would be to arm the rebels with MANPADS. The US did that in Afghanistan to balance the odds after Russia invaded in December 1979 in support of the communist backed regine which was suffering substantial losses at the time. Once the Mujahedin received their first Stingers, the tide rapidly turned against the Russians who retreated from the country ten years later.

 

While MANPADS won't be much good against high flying Russian aircraft, they'd be very effective against Syrian helicopters unloading barrel bombs on the civilian population.

 

 

The difference in this war is that the people that would be given the weapons hate the west as much as they hate Assad and no western plane would ever be safe again. Those weapons are small enough to be easily smuggled into western countries and there are no doubt hundreds if not thousands of fanatics that came with the "refugees" willing and able to use them against western civilian airliners.

I have no doubt that your solution has been already thought of long ago, and not implemented for the reason I have given.

In this war, the enemy of my enemy is not my friend.

[thaibeachlovers]

3 hours ago, SgtRock said:

 

24 Million not 24k.

 

Lamentable does not even come close.

 

As for your standout. Correct, Europe does not mandate adherence to a mean spirited belief system, Islam does.

 

Hence the reason Saudi offered to build to build 200 Mosques in Germany. What a stunning contribution to the migrant crisis. I could come up with 1000's of things migrants need, before they need a Mosque.

 

 

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/saudi-offers-build-200-mosques-in-germany-for-syrian-refugees-605755.html

 

I used an Arabian source so that I would not be accused of being bias.

Indeed, yet try and build a church in Riyadh!!!!!!

No Saudi mosque should be permitted in western countries as long as Saudi does not permit Christianity to be observed in that country.

[craigt3365]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Indeed, yet try and build a church in Riyadh!!!!!!

No Saudi mosque should be permitted in western countries as long as Saudi does not permit Christianity to be observed in that country.

Here's what Saudi Arabia is doing in Bosnia.  America isn't the big problem now in the Middle East.  It's Saudi Arabia and Iran.

 

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/is-saudi-funded-mosque-in-sarajevo-threat-to-bosnias-moderate-muslims/

A former Bosnian intelligence officer has told the “NewsHour” that Western allies should be more concerned about the risk from a huge Saudi-sponsored mosque in the capital, Sarajevo.

[Morch]

8 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

I'm no expert, but from what I've read, barrel bombs aren't precise.  So they have no idea if they are going to hit their target or not.  Or, hit a nearby school, hospital, apartment, etc.  Also, it's been shown they've been putting chemicals into these devices.  The recent chlorine attack is an example.  Something you wouldn't have with precision bombing.

 

I've also read that many would like to leave, but when they tried, snipers took some down.  Thus, their hesitancy to leave the area.  Plus, it is their home!  Sadly...

 

Indeed, they are not anywhere near precise. But then, most of the armament used by the Syrian Air Force consists of unguided munitions.

Air to ground operations are not necessarily precise - the precision is more to do with training and available armament. I think that in terms of sheer payload, most of their available attack aircraft can dispense similar levels of destruction.

 

IMO the main reason for usage of barrel bombs is their low cost. With regard to the use of chemical weapons, a possible motivation would be plausible deniability. Quite easy to discern an attack aircraft's run, perhaps more ambiguous with regard to these barrel bomb attacks.

 

Overall, obviously the Syrian/Russian aerial strikes play a part instilling fear in those on the ground. My comment was more to do with the specific weight of barrel bombs in this. But even no fly zones (if and when) will not radically change the situation.

[Morch]

14 hours ago, tonbridgebrit said:

"That's not a foregone conclusion.   It depends on who wins.   It may result in a whole new outflow of refugees, depending on who is in power."


Yes, this comment is very true. And what if Assad loses, and he's removed ?
Who will take over Syria ?  The two biggest rebel groups are ISIS and the Al-Nusra Front. Al-Nusra Front are Al-Qaeda's branch in Syria. There's also other rebel groups who are linked to the Al-Nusra Front. And other rebels as well.

Are the people of Syria going to want to stay in Syria if ISIS takes over ? Are they going to want to stay if the Al-Nusra Front takes over ?
Yes, there might be a whole new outflow of refugees if Washington then decides to bomb whoever still remains after Assad has gone. I mean, no way will NATO allow a new Syria with ISIS or the Al-Nusra Front in charge, right ?

 

 

 

There's gonna be ongoing butchery whether Assad remains or goes. The difference is in who will do the butchering and who will be slaughtered. I think it's safe to say that many civilians will be ill treated under either option.

 

Will refugees be keen on returning to Syria is Assad prevails? Some will, undoubtedly, and some not. I think it's less to do with Assad himself and more with what will be left of Syria when (if?) the fog clears. IMO, many will not be eager to return to a destroyed country, with less than promising prospects.

 

As expected, totally ignoring the civilian casualty toll by Russian and Syrian forces.

[Xircal]

21 hours ago, Morch said:

 

There's a good reason these aren't handed out freely anymore. Too dangerous to trust in the hands of militants notorious for shifting allegiances. Too great a risk ending up in the hands of terrorists and being a threat to civilian air traffic.

 

 

That's a lame excuse. There isn't any civilian air traffic anywhere close to where Al-Assad is using his choppers to drop barrel bombs on the civilian population. In fact all civil aviation is banned from entering Syrian airspace entirely: http://www.reuters.com/article/syria-crisis-usa-airlines-idUSL2N0QP01520140819

 

And anyway, ISIS got their hands on MANPADS long ago when they overran Syrian air bases as can be seen in the video. So there's no reason for the coalition not to supply them to the local population who are victims of barrel bombs.

 

 

[Morch]

11 minutes ago, Xircal said:

 

That's a lame excuse. There isn't any civilian air traffic anywhere close to where Al-Assad is using his choppers to drop barrel bombs on the civilian population. In fact all civil aviation is banned from entering Syrian airspace entirely: http://www.reuters.com/article/syria-crisis-usa-airlines-idUSL2N0QP01520140819

 

And anyway, ISIS got their hands on MANPADS long ago when they overran Syrian air bases as can be seen in the video. So there's no reason for the coalition not to supply them to the local population who are victims of barrel bombs.

 

 

 

The reference to civilian aviation was not necessarily tied to Syrian airspace. Syria's porous borders and refugee movement could make it easier to ship out of country. Neighboring countries, by the way, aren't subject to airspace limitations.

 

ISIS (or any other group fighting Assad) may have scored some from the Syrian Army or acquired it through other means. That said, these things are a one off - and they do not have an endless supply. Why create a potential problem down the line? Providing weapons to any group in Syria is how it begins, where the weapons end is another. That's why.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Xircal]

45 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

The reference to civilian aviation was not necessarily tied to Syrian airspace. Syria's porous borders and refugee movement could make it easier to ship out of country. Neighboring countries, by the way, aren't subject to airspace limitations.

 

ISIS (or any other group fighting Assad) may have scored some from the Syrian Army or acquired it through other means. That said, these things are a one off - and they do not have an endless supply. Why create a potential problem down the line? Providing weapons to any group in Syria is how it begins, where the weapons end is another. That's why.

 

 

In the meantime civilians die in their hundreds suffering horrific injuries caused by these indiscriminate weapons.

 

MANPADS don't need to be supplied in their thousands. Just half a dozen choppers carrying barrels bombs being blown out of the sky will act as a sufficient psychological deterrent to dissuade chopper pilots from engaging in this brutal kind of warfare.

 

 

Edited November 28, 2016 by Xircal

[Morch]

17 hours ago, Xircal said:

 

In the meantime civilians die in their hundreds suffering horrific injuries caused by these indiscriminate weapons.

 

MANPADS don't need to be supplied in their thousands. Just half a dozen choppers carrying barrels bombs being blown out of the sky will act as a sufficient psychological deterrent to dissuade chopper pilots from engaging in this brutal kind of warfare.

 

 

 

List of aviation shootdowns and accidents during the Syrian Civil War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aviation_shootdowns_and_accidents_during_the_Syrian_Civil_War

 

Doubt a few more would change things, and having too many of them around can backfire. I have no idea how many of the civilian casualties can be directly attributed to barrel bomb attacks. Generally speaking, many of the attacks (aerial and ground) carried out by forces loyal can be said to be indiscriminate, barrel bombs are just one instance of such.

[Xircal]

6 hours ago, Morch said:

 

List of aviation shootdowns and accidents during the Syrian Civil War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aviation_shootdowns_and_accidents_during_the_Syrian_Civil_War

 

Doubt a few more would change things, and having too many of them around can backfire. I have no idea how many of the civilian casualties can be directly attributed to barrel bomb attacks. Generally speaking, many of the attacks (aerial and ground) carried out by forces loyal can be said to be indiscriminate, barrel bombs are just one instance of such.

 

Except that barrel bombs contain chlorine gas: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chlorine#Use_as_a_weapon

Chemical weapons are forbidden by the Geneva Convention: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/07/middleeast/syria-chemical-weapons-analysis/

 

[JemJem]

By the way, as you know, Turkey has been flooded with Syrian refugees in the past few years.

Some of you are saying 'So what, most of those two sets of people have a common relligion; people will adapt easily'.

No, that's not the case. Me and most of my Turkish friends here are NOT happy at all about the Arabisation of certain districts of Istanbul. The demographics of the country is changing fast because of the Islamofascist policies of Erdogan. Some of you, I am sure, know the 'Istiklal/Taksim' district of Istanbul. It has changed a lot in recent years. For the worse. That nightlife area where diversity was always the norm, has become a sort of ghetto for Syrians. Many bars and clubs have closed down already. Me and most of my friends have sadly been avoiding that once-fun area for at least 2-3 years now.

So, no, many of us Turks are NOT happy about the 'uncontrolled flow of Syrian refugees' into Turkey.

[Opl]

1 hour ago, JemJem said:

By the way, as you know, Turkey has been flooded with Syrian refugees in the past few years.

Some of you are saying 'So what, most of those two sets of people have a common relligion; people will adapt easily'.

No, that's not the case. Me and most of my Turkish friends here are NOT happy at all about the Arabisation of certain districts of Istanbul. The demographics of the country is changing fast because of the Islamofascist policies of Erdogan. Some of you, I am sure, know the 'Istiklal/Taksim' district of Istanbul. It has changed a lot in recent years. For the worse. That nightlife area where diversity was always the norm, has become a sort of ghetto for Syrians. Many bars and clubs have closed down already. Me and most of my friends have sadly been avoiding that once-fun area for at least 2-3 years now.

So, no, many of us Turks are NOT happy about the 'uncontrolled flow of Syrian refugees' into Turkey.

 

But how much are Turks happy with Erdogan himself ?

 

"  I want to announce some good news," Erdogan said late on Saturday at a dinner to break the Ramadan fast in Kilis province, on the Syrian border. "We are going to help our Syrian friends in offering them the chance, if they want it, to acquire Turkish nationality."

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/erdogan-syrian-refugees-turkish-citizens-160703133739430.html

 

(I used to be very fond of Istanbul - but that was before Erdogan.)   

 

[craigt3365]

8 hours ago, JemJem said:

By the way, as you know, Turkey has been flooded with Syrian refugees in the past few years.

Some of you are saying 'So what, most of those two sets of people have a common relligion; people will adapt easily'.

No, that's not the case. Me and most of my Turkish friends here are NOT happy at all about the Arabisation of certain districts of Istanbul. The demographics of the country is changing fast because of the Islamofascist policies of Erdogan. Some of you, I am sure, know the 'Istiklal/Taksim' district of Istanbul. It has changed a lot in recent years. For the worse. That nightlife area where diversity was always the norm, has become a sort of ghetto for Syrians. Many bars and clubs have closed down already. Me and most of my friends have sadly been avoiding that once-fun area for at least 2-3 years now.

So, no, many of us Turks are NOT happy about the 'uncontrolled flow of Syrian refugees' into Turkey.

You guys are bearing the brunt of the war in Syria.  We were just in Istanbul and were amazed at how few tourists are there.  Zero lines at any tourist attraction.  Few tourists at the restaurants.  The Grand Bazaar was empty.  I felt sorry for the owners.

[Morch]

16 hours ago, Xircal said:

 

Except that barrel bombs contain chlorine gas: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chlorine#Use_as_a_weapon

Chemical weapons are forbidden by the Geneva Convention: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/07/middleeast/syria-chemical-weapons-analysis/

 

 

Some barrel bombs do, some don't. As detailed in the second link (the first doesn't mention Syria), the number of actual casualties is not exactly the issue. There isn't much that can be done about the availability of chlorine, and given the crudeness of the bombs, it shouldn't be that hard for Assad's regime to come up with other ways of using them. IMO, at this point of the war, handing out MANPADS won't change things much anyway.

[Morch]

7 hours ago, craigt3365 said:

You guys are bearing the brunt of the war in Syria.  We were just in Istanbul and were amazed at how few tourists are there.  Zero lines at any tourist attraction.  Few tourists at the restaurants.  The Grand Bazaar was empty.  I felt sorry for the owners.

 

I think Jordan and Lebanon are in an even worse situation with regard to the refugee influx, considering their respective economies, available resources and demographics. They're just less of an issue for the EU, hence less headlines. But yes, Turkey certainly got a lot on its plate at the moment, and doesn't look like it will be over anytime soon. With regard to tourists, far as I know, this is pretty much low season anyway.