Unbelievable Coincidence

[tropo]

I pay for most of my supermarket shopping by Mastercard. I checked my statement online and noted 2 payments of exactly the same amount: 1115.50 baht.

 

Initially, I thought there was some error and I was double charged. On closer inspection, I discovered they were charges from 2 different supermarkets for exactly the same amount.

 

Big C Extra: November 28: 1115.50 baht

Friendship Supermarket: November 30: 1115.50 baht.

 

These were just random shopping carts.

 

This is a mind-boggling coincidence, and only 2 days apart. I can't image the odds of that happening.

 

(I'm not making this up - I have the receipts to prove it)

 

Also, in January I paid for items at a 7Eleven with a 1000 baht note and received 711 baht change. LOL.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 3, 2016 by tropo

[saakura]

Sorry, i cant understand what you are intending to say. You made 2 random purchases at different stores for the same total. A little strange coincidence but not earth shattering. And you got change for a 1000 Baht note at 7-11, what is so unbeleivable in that? Am i missing something here?

 

Edit : Ok i read it again, the change at 7-11 was 711, cool. 

Edited December 3, 2016 by saakura

[KMartinHandyman]

Now spend b80 and make it all meaningful.

[thehelmsman]

All I see are winning jackpot numbers. Play them immediately.

[pgrahmm]

11 minutes ago, thehelmsman said:

All I see are winning jackpot numbers. Play them immediately.

 Beat me to it.....

[1FinickyOne]

A guy dreams of the number 5 all night... He wakes in the morning and it is 5:55 - he looks at the calendar and it is May 5th...  He decides with all of these omens that he should  go to the racetrack... he waits until the fifth race - he bets $55 to win on the number 5 horse...

 

the horse finishes 5th... 

[tropo]

1 hour ago, saakura said:

Sorry, i cant understand what you are intending to say. You made 2 random purchases at different stores for the same total. A little strange coincidence but not earth shattering. And you got change for a 1000 Baht note at 7-11, what is so unbeleivable in that? Am i missing something here?

 

Edit : Ok i read it again, the change at 7-11 was 711, cool. 

 

 

 

You call that a little strange? I call it earth shatteringly strange. That won't happen again in a hundred lifetimes.

 

What made it even more incredible is that they are consecutive purchases on the same MasterCard.

 

The 7Eleven coincidence is easily calculated as a 1 in 1000 chance, but the shopping coincidence would be in the millions to 1... perhaps even billions.

 

 

Edited December 3, 2016 by tropo

[tropo]

1 hour ago, KMartinHandyman said:

Now spend b80 and make it all meaningful.

This wasn't intended to be meaningful. Check the forum title.

[theguyfromanotherforum]

Was it a Thai master card or was it foreign exchange?

[tropo]

5 minutes ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

Was it a Thai master card or was it foreign exchange?

Are you serious?

 

Please go back to that other forum.

 

Edited December 3, 2016 by tropo

[Gulfsailor]

5 minutes ago, tropo said:

You call that a little strange? I call it earth shatteringly strange. That won't happen again in a hundred lifetimes.

 

 

It may look incredible, but it's not so weird if you do the numbers. First I make the assumption that the actual amount 1115.50 has no special meaning to you, and you would be just as amazed if it were another amount. I also assume you wouldn't be too impressed with a number in the low hundreds, say 240.75. Let's say any amount between 300 and 5000. When shopping you obviously have a bell curve amount, say around 1500. That basically leaves any shopping total amount to be 50% of the time between 1000 and 2000 Baht. Now we assume the shops use 50 satang increments, so you'll end up with 2000 amount possibilities in that 50%. Now let's say you shop 2x per week. That means you would need a 500 weeks or 10 years to get a 50% chance of it happening. So in 20 years you'll have a good chance of it happening at least once. 

 

Now the interesting bit why this is not exciting to me. When you divide by say 10,000 active TV posters, 10 of those would have this happen to him or her every other week. It's like winning the lottery. Very unlikely for the winner. Very likely someone wins. 

[tropo]

4 minutes ago, Gulfsailor said:

It may look incredible, but it's not so weird if you do the numbers. First I make the assumption that the actual amount 1115.50 has no special meaning to you, and you would be just as amazed if it were another amount. I also assume you wouldn't be too impressed with a number in the low hundreds, say 240.75. Let's say any amount between 300 and 5000. When shopping you obviously have a bell curve amount, say around 1500. That basically leaves any shopping total amount to be 50% of the time between 1000 and 2000 Baht. Now we assume the shops use 50 satang increments, so you'll end up with 2000 amount possibilities in that 50%. Now let's say you shop 2x per week. That means you would need a 500 weeks or 10 years to get a 50% chance of it happening. So in 20 years you'll have a good chance of it happening at least once. 

 

Now the interesting bit why this is not exciting to me. When you divide by say 10,000 active TV posters, 10 of those would have this happen to him or her every other week. It's like winning the lottery. Very unlikely for the winner. Very likely someone wins. 

 

So let me get this straight. Are you saying that statistically there is a good chance that I will spend exactly the same amount on 2 consecutive shopping sprees of totally different items in 20 years of shopping?

 

I accept you may hit the same total twice in 20 years or far more often even, but not on consecutive shopping sprees.

 

BTW, you did hit your numbers fairly accurately as I probably do spend between 1000 and 2000 on at least 50% of my shopping sprees and probably about twice a week on average.

 

 

[Gulfsailor]

30 minutes ago, tropo said:

So let me get this straight. Are you saying that statistically there is a good chance that I will spend exactly the same amount on 2 consecutive shopping sprees of totally different items in 20 years of shopping?

 

I accept you may hit the same total twice in 20 years or far more often even, but not on consecutive shopping sprees.

 

BTW, you did hit your numbers fairly accurately as I probably do spend between 1000 and 2000 on at least 50% of my shopping sprees and probably about twice a week on average.

 

 

I made a little error. You need a 1000 weeks, not 500 weeks to get a 50% chance. So end result is good chance of it happening every 40 years. 

 

Another way way to calculate which should result in a similar outcome; let's say you do two shopping trips each month (1 statement). The 50% chance of the second amount being the same as the first amount is 1 in 2000. But you make 8 trips, so a total of 7 opportunities to get it right on a consecutive basis. That's a total chance of 1 in <300. So in 600 (300 = 50%) monthly statements you are likely to see it happening at least once. That's 50 years. 

 

You didnt mention if these these two trips were consecutive or just in the same month (statement). In case of the latter the odds go up by a lot. After the first trip you have 1 in <300 chance to get the 50% chance of same amount again sometime that month. 1 in <350 after second trip, all the way down to a 1 in 2000 chance for the second from last trip that month. If you add all these up every month you get 1 in 83. Meaning in 166 statements covering less than 15 years it is bound to happen at least once. 

Edited December 3, 2016 by Gulfsailor

[bamukloy]

I also have many weird unexplained shit happen when in Thailand.

 

My Thai gf say this is work of a naughty Thai ghost who like to poke at farang.

 

You were supposed to see the 2 same prices and immediately go off your noggun, come on Tv ranting and saying the checkout lady defaud you and somehow made a fraudulent transaction.

 

You supposed to cry conspiracy and scam and say that all Thais are thieves and out to get you and rip you off.

 

She mentioned he is very busy with members of TV,

 and that he even got me a few times with his nasty work..

 

Apparently when it happen to me i did go off my chops before investigating properly, so cudos to you Sir.

555

[bamukloy]

47 minutes ago, Gulfsailor said:

It may look incredible, but it's not so weird if you do the numbers. First I make the assumption that the actual amount 1115.50 has no special meaning to you, and you would be just as amazed if it were another amount. I also assume you wouldn't be too impressed with a number in the low hundreds, say 240.75. Let's say any amount between 300 and 5000. When shopping you obviously have a bell curve amount, say around 1500. That basically leaves any shopping total amount to be 50% of the time between 1000 and 2000 Baht. Now we assume the shops use 50 satang increments, so you'll end up with 2000 amount possibilities in that 50%. Now let's say you shop 2x per week. That means you would need a 500 weeks or 10 years to get a 50% chance of it happening. So in 20 years you'll have a good chance of it happening at least once. 

 

Now the interesting bit why this is not exciting to me. When you divide by say 10,000 active TV posters, 10 of those would have this happen to him or her every other week. It's like winning the lottery. Very unlikely for the winner. Very likely someone wins. 

 

You could have saved all that jibberish and say that he roughly buys the same items that have the same amount of tax on them

[tropo]

11 minutes ago, Gulfsailor said:

I made a little error. You need a 1000 weeks, not 500 weeks to get a 50% chance. So end result is good chance of it happening every 40 years. 

 

Another way way to calculate which should result in a similar outcome; let's say you do two shopping trips each month (1 statement). The 50% chance of the second amount being the same as the first amount is 1 in 2000. But you make 8 trips, so a total of 7 opportunities to get it right on a consecutive basis. That's a total chance of 1 in <300. So in 600 (300 = 50%) monthly statements you are likely to see it happening at least once. That's 50 years. 

 

You didnt mention if these these two trips were consecutive or just in the same month (statement). In case of the latter the odds go up by a lot. After the first trip you have 1 in <300 chance to get the 50% chance of same amount again sometime that month. 1 in <350 after second trip, all the way down to a 1 in 2000 chance for the second from last trip that month. If you add all these up every month you get 1 in 83. Meaning in 166 statements covering less than 15 years it is bound to happen at least once. 

 

I mentioned the dates in the OP. November 28 and 30. Yes, they were consecutive shopping sprees.

[tropo]

5 minutes ago, bamukloy said:

 

You could have saved all that jibberish and say that he roughly buys the same items that have the same amount of tax on them

 

The 2 shopping sprees had no common items at all. I shop at different supermarkets to buy different stuff. If I bought the same stuff every day/week in the same quantity, at the same shop, I wouldn't have bothered you with this post.

[theguyfromanotherforum]

Are you serious?
 
Please go back to that other forum.
 

I asked myself the exact same thing when reading your op.

Now answer the question.

[tropo]

1 hour ago, theguyfromanotherforum said:

 

I asked myself the exact same thing when reading your op.

Now answer the question.

 

 

 

What question?

 

Edited December 3, 2016 by tropo

[1FinickyOne]

5 hours ago, Gulfsailor said:

I made a little error. You need a 1000 weeks, not 500 weeks to get a 50% chance. So end result is good chance of it happening every 40 years. 

 

Another way way to calculate which should result in a similar outcome; let's say you do two shopping trips each month (1 statement). The 50% chance of the second amount being the same as the first amount is 1 in 2000. But you make 8 trips, so a total of 7 opportunities to get it right on a consecutive basis. That's a total chance of 1 in <300. So in 600 (300 = 50%) monthly statements you are likely to see it happening at least once. That's 50 years. 

 

You didnt mention if these these two trips were consecutive or just in the same month (statement). In case of the latter the odds go up by a lot. After the first trip you have 1 in <300 chance to get the 50% chance of same amount again sometime that month. 1 in <350 after second trip, all the way down to a 1 in 2000 chance for the second from last trip that month. If you add all these up every month you get 1 in 83. Meaning in 166 statements covering less than 15 years it is bound to happen at least once. 

 

I think it is actually called the law of large numbers - - or something like that. Even if the chances are slim, considering that there are probably billions of purchases everyday, if the odds are one in ten million, then it might happen 100x a day... somewhere. Though the odds might be closer to one in 2,000... 

Edited December 3, 2016 by kenk24

[NickJ]

If that falls under the category of Earth Shattering....you need to get out more.

[tropo]

6 hours ago, kenk24 said:

 

I think it is actually called the law of large numbers - - or something like that. Even if the chances are slim, considering that there are probably billions of purchases everyday, if the odds are one in ten million, then it might happen 100x a day... somewhere. Though the odds might be closer to one in 2,000... 

 

The odds are not one in 2000 or even close.

 

This wasn't about hitting a particular total, which had a chance of about 1 in 3400, or once in 20 years at my shopping frequency.

 

It was about hitting the same total on 2 consecutive shopping sprees.

 

 

[tropo]

6 minutes ago, NickJ said:

If that falls under the category of Earth Shattering....you need to get out more.

It certainly doesn't fall under the category of a "little strange coincidence".

 

How much of a coincidence i.e. what you call it, is subjective but... as a world traveler who gets out a lot...

 

 Please give me one specific example of a more amazing coincidence that you personally discovered from getting out so much.  

[Gulfsailor]

Every month between the 15th and 20th, my bank account reads exactly 0.00 Baht. How is that for a coincidence?!

[Rimmer]

Topic closed as per OP request

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