It's official - Thai real estate bubble pops.

[Naam]

8 hours ago, Destiny1990 said:

And again he is his time ahead of us because (according to him anytime now) when the property market crashes in Thailand then he will buy up whole condo buildings for 25% of the current prices.Watch wait and learn from the master!

wrong! the "master" confesses that he has never made a single penny profit in any real estate deal.      

[inThailand]

I would hazard a wild guess that most of us have made significantly more money from property investments  back home compared to here.

[hugh mckee]

unable to delete my account, tired of only reading from the money obsessed moaning, never happy, always bringing thailand down, bordering on racist comments on here from the few idiots with a lot to say....I love Thailand, had many holidays there and never a bad one, of course it's very different from the UK in so many ways and that's only to be expected.

 

 

if someone from the forum can delete my account...thank you.

 

to the smart and honest guys on here I've enjyed reading your posts but the small minority with the loud voice,

obsessed by money and who ridicule anyone who doesn't agree with them I will happily never read their selfish stupid messages

 

Edited October 3, 2017 by hugh mckee

[Destiny1990]

1 hour ago, Naam said:

wrong! the "master" confesses that he has never made a single penny profit in any real estate deal.      

Hi Naam sorry u got me all wrong here that text was meant for that Chrisandsu type. As it is him claiming the thai real estate bubble going to burst at anytime soon now.

Edited October 3, 2017 by Destiny1990

[chrisandsu]

1 hour ago, Destiny1990 said:

Hi Naam sorry u got me all wrong here that text was meant for that Chrisandsu type. As it is him claiming the thai real estate bubble going to burst at anytime soon now.

It's okay such nonsense could easily be confused ? Please could you find me where I said the bubble will pop in Thailand ? It's ok you can stop talking with the big boys now and go back to your bar stool ??

[Destiny1990]

31 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

It's okay such nonsense could easily be confused ? Please could you find me where I said the bubble will pop in Thailand ? It's ok you can stop talking with the big boys now and go back to your bar stool ??

Yeah ur talk is big but likely your wallet is small.

[chrisandsu]

27 minutes ago, Destiny1990 said:

Yeah ur talk is big but likely your wallet is small.

Did you ever find out if you could buy a condo pre 98? You know when foreign ownership was not restricted ? Everyone's eyes rolled in unison when you posted that . Keep telling your bar bird your minted ,we all know you live in a council house ??

[Destiny1990]

2 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

Did you ever find out if you could buy a condo pre 98? You know when foreign ownership was not restricted ? Everyone's eyes rolled in unison when you posted that . Keep telling your bar bird your minted ,we all know you live in a council house ??

Yes i am hopefully a young boy compared to u and even I don't drink alchohol.so on units prior 1998 there is still no foreign quota?

[Naam]

45 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

Did you ever find out if you could buy a condo pre 98? You know when foreign ownership was not restricted

i think you are mistaken because pre 1998 the purchase of immobile property by foreigners was much more restricted than after.

 

as far as land/house deals were concerned a Thai lady even lost the right to purchase any land after marrying a foreigner. only in the aftermath of the 1997 crisis that restriction was lifted and the 49% rule condo act came into effect.

[chrisandsu]

13 minutes ago, Naam said:

i think you are mistaken because pre 1998 the purchase of immobile property by foreigners was much more restricted than after.

 

as far as land/house deals were concerned a Thai lady even lost the right to purchase any land after marrying a foreigner. only in the aftermath of the 1997 crisis that restriction was lifted and the 49% rule condo act came into effect.

I think the only thing that could save the oversupply problem (didn't say bubble) is lifting the 49% rule to 100% but still

never owning the land the building sits on ? Im not  sure what the implications would be but I'd feel

a hell of a lot more confident if I knew other foreigners owned the building , knowing maintenance would be kept up . 

[Destiny1990]

1 hour ago, Naam said:

i think you are mistaken because pre 1998 the purchase of immobile property by foreigners was much more restricted than after.

 

as far as land/house deals were concerned a Thai lady even lost the right to purchase any land after marrying a foreigner. only in the aftermath of the 1997 crisis that restriction was lifted and the 49% rule condo act came into effect.

So also for condominiums built between 1998 and 2004 there was and there still is a foreign quota of 49%?

[Destiny1990]

45 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

I think the only thing that could save the oversupply problem (didn't say bubble) is lifting the 49% rule to 100% but still

never owning the land the building sits on ? Im not  sure what the implications would be but I'd feel

a hell of a lot more confident if I knew other foreigners owned the building , knowing maintenance would be kept up . 

U smile at my questions but u got no clue about the answers yourself well that's funny?.No need to comment just pointing it out.

[chrisandsu]

5 minutes ago, Destiny1990 said:

U smile at my questions but u got no clue about the answers yourself well that's funny?.No need to comment just pointing it out.

So pre 98 you should listen to your buddy and buy one of those condos he's offering you . Sounds like an amazing deal! You would be a fool not too .........

[Destiny1990]

25 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

So pre 98 you should listen to your buddy and buy one of those condos he's offering you . Sounds like an amazing deal! You would be a fool not too .........

I heavily doubt that u capable to advice anyone with anything.

[watcharacters]

 

 

And the Sky is falling as Well.. ?

[Naam]

58 minutes ago, Destiny1990 said:

So also for condominiums built between 1998 and 2004 there was and there still is a foreign quota of 49%?

pertaining to foreign quota the condo-building needs to meet certain criteria. don't know exact details because i'm neither interested to buy one nor to live in one. one year in a rented condo during construction of our home cured me for life even though it was a fancy penthouse with sea view. 

[TropicalFalang]

something that might make it look like as if there's a crisis going, while there isn't, is the fact that a lot of people assume that they'll be able to sell their property with profit, but ... at the same time, the same company they bought their house/condo from keeps building more and more, which is why reselling property isn't as easy as it might seem, while more and more properties are not only being build, but also being sold ... 

[JohnLick]

Another one for Hugh ... why are people here so "bad"

 

[anto]

37 minutes ago, JohnLick said:

Another one for Hugh ... why are people here so "bad"

 

 

Bad and good everywhere .

[funandsuninbangkok]

On 10/4/2017 at 7:17 PM, anto said:

 

Bad and good everywhere .

A lot more bad here in property than anywhere else I've seen

[ExpatOilWorker]

First read this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-04/bulldozers-can-show-you-where-the-economy-s-going-before-the-official-data-do

 

Unfortunately the raw data for Thailand alone is not available, but it interesting to see that construction equipment is working twice as many hours in China than Japan/US. 

201709komtrax_e.pdf

[cheeryble]

4 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

First read this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-04/bulldozers-can-show-you-where-the-economy-s-going-before-the-official-data-do

 

Unfortunately the raw data for Thailand alone is not available, but it interesting to see that construction equipment is working twice as many hours in China than Japan/US. 

201709komtrax_e.pdf

I heard that more concrete was poured in China last year than in the whole of history, everywhere.

It may be a wee bit over, but this is impressive enough from Forbes....

 

 

[lannarebirth]

On 9/30/2017 at 10:46 PM, trogers said:

The Baht would fall into the abyss...

And is it your belief that if the THB should 'fall into the abyss" that asset prices would not adjust to the relative valuation of the THB?

Edited October 8, 2017 by lannarebirth

[trogers]

3 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

And is it your belief that if the THB should 'fall into the abyss" that asset prices would not adjust to the relative valuation of the THB?

Nowhere had I said that the Baht would fall. Read my earlier posts which say the contrary.

[lannarebirth]

56 minutes ago, trogers said:

Nowhere had I said that the Baht would fall. Read my earlier posts which say the contrary.

Apologies if I misquoted you but I didn't read the entirety of the thread, having just come upon it.

 

Here is my anecdotal experience of the Thai property market.  In 2003 my wife and I decided to put 1/3 of our networth into Thailand real property. We looked at over 300 pieces of property before we bought our first piece. We then bought 7 pieces of land in 6 months. In 2007, due to appreciation our Thailand property investments accounted for 2/3 of our networth. In 2007 and 2008 we sold down our Thailand properties until they only accounted for 20% of our net worth and subsequently bought 6 more properties to bring the ratio back to 33%-35%. In 2012 those properties had grown in value to account for about 65% of our networth and over the course of 2012-2013 we sold them down to about a 28%-30% position of our assets.  Not much appreciation since that time, maybe 10%.

 

I guess my point is tha Thailand real property market is extremely vibrant if you do your homework, buy right, and do not limit your idea of "property" to concrete boxes in the sky.

 

Frankly I wouldn't own a condo, much less live in one, if you paid me. To each their own.

[ExpatOilWorker]

13 hours ago, cheeryble said:

I heard that more concrete was poured in China last year than in the whole of history, everywhere.

It may be a wee bit over, but this is impressive enough from Forbes....

 

 

Assuming Forbes got the numbers right, the big panda in the room is for how long China can sustain this relentless pace. Did they build another 147 (US) years in 2014-16? What is next 200 US-years in 2017-2019?

Also the more they build, the bigger they become, the return on assets will decline.

Eventually they will saturate their own market and live with a flat growth, just like Japan did. When this happen, it will of course also be felt in the Thai real-estate market.

[KittenKong]

2 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

Here is my anecdotal experience of the Thai property market.  In 2003 my wife and I decided to put 1/3 of our networth into Thailand real property. We looked at over 300 pieces of property before we bought our first piece. We then bought 7 pieces of land in 6 months.........

 

Foreigners cant buy land here. So presumably you mean that your wife bought this land. That's fine for those with a Thai wife that they trust. I dont have one, dont want one and wouldnt trust one if I had one anyway. So Thai houses and land as an investment is a permanently closed door to me, not that it bothers me in the slightest as I see far easier, cheaper, legal, more reliable and probably more rewarding investment channels elsewhere.

[trogers]

15 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Assuming Forbes got the numbers right, the big panda in the room is for how long China can sustain this relentless pace. Did they build another 147 (US) years in 2014-16? What is next 200 US-years in 2017-2019?

Also the more they build, the bigger they become, the return on assets will decline.

Eventually they will saturate their own market and live with a flat growth, just like Japan did. When this happen, it will of course also be felt in the Thai real-estate market.

The Thai condo market is producing her own flat growth without any help from China. Collectively, the unsold inventory to date probably hit over US$10b, complement of those hot money from the numerous QEs.

[Naam]

37 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Assuming Forbes got the numbers right, the big panda in the room is for how long China can sustain this relentless pace. Did they build another 147 (US) years in 2014-16? What is next 200 US-years in 2017-2019?

Also the more they build, the bigger they become, the return on assets will decline.

Eventually they will saturate their own market and live with a flat growth, just like Japan did. When this happen, it will of course also be felt in the Thai real-estate market.

China's estimated demand (dated 2015) of housing units till 2040 between 18 and 22 million per annum.

[trogers]

1 hour ago, Naam said:

China's estimated demand (dated 2015) of housing units till 2040 between 18 and 22 million per annum.

There is a big difference between Demand and Effective Demand.