Merkel's conservatives widen lead over Social Democrats in German poll

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Merkel's conservatives widen lead over Social Democrats in German poll

REUTERS

 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks during a joint news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin following their talks at the Bocharov Ruchei state residence in Sochi, Russia, May 2, 2017. REUTERS/Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool

 

BERLIN (Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives have widened their lead over the centre-left Social Democrats less than five months ahead of a federal election in Europe's largest economy, according to an opinion poll.

 

The survey by the INSA institute, to be published Wednesday in the mass-circulation Bild newspaper, showed support for the conservatives unchanged at 34 percent while the SPD inched down 1.5 percentage points on the week to 28.5 percent.

 

The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) fell one percentage point to 9 percent while the far-left Linke gained one percentage point to 10.5 percent. The Greens stood at 6.5 percent and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) at 7 percent.

 

The survey of 2,035 people was carried out from April 28 to May 2.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-05-03

[Saradoc1972]

Yawn. Nice polls. Has anybody noted how it's going to end in a CDU/SPD grand coalition Merkel IV?

 

Not enough for anything else, no matter how you calculate. SPD+Greens+Linke are around 45%, Greens being on the way down. Would need another 3% minimum for all three put together to make for a highly volatile leftist coalition. Which would blow within weeks, if you know anything about the Greens or the Linke.

 

"Ampel"-coalition, i.e. traffic-light, Red-Yellow-Green, SPD-FDP-Green. Even less votes. Plus FDP and Greens or Linke don't play ball with each other. Has sorta worked once in a state, but not recommended on federal level.

 

"Schwarze Ampel" or Jamaica, i.e. the same with centrist-right CDU instead of centrist-left SPD? Could just be enough maths-wise, CDU are going to get additional seats from a complicated calculation under the personalized-proportional electoral system in Germany. While a coalition of CDU and Greens so far works in Baden-Württemberg and Hessia the Greens in Berlin are different and don't go by the name of Kretschmann, but rather Göring-Eckardt or Roth. I don't see that coming, honestly. IF (that is a big if) both Greens and FDP even make it over the 5% hurdle in the general elections in September.

 

AFD is likely underestimated, people are even afraid to state their mind anonymously in surveys. But they won't be in any coalition this time, the rest of the parties think they can successfully keep them small by treating them as pariahs, when they score up to 25% in recent polls in Thuringia and got elected into parliament with over 20% in MeckPomm. Yeah, looks like it's working. And keep demeaning them as racists when you copy most of their political demands after 3-6 months. Anyways, entering into a coalition of any sorts above municipality-level would wreck AFD because their representatives lack experience and will have to master a steep learning curve in the parliaments over the next 4 years or so. Would end like the Schill-party in Hamburg some 10y ago.

 

SPD back on the way down, where Gabriel left off at 21%? Turns out Schulz can't walk on water after all, the huge relief to see our former vice-chancellor gone is wearing off. Already a shadow of their former selves, a fourth grand coalition where SPD can't make own politics to differentiate themselves from their senior partner CDU will leave them meaningless, walking dead.

Edited May 3, 2017 by Saradoc1972