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At the bottom of this post is my 35 year plan. I'm currently 39 years old and in good heath. Do you think the plan makes sense?

I made my first post to this forum 2 years ago. I had left Thailand about a year before and had managed to save 2,000,000 bt in that year. I was aching to return to Thailand and asked if this was enough to setup permanently in Thailand. I received some great responses to my inquiry. Most of the responses advice was to save more money. I came to the same conclusion. I've managed to save another 10,000,000 bt the last couple years and I'm happy with the decision to stay in the rat race. My plans now are to move to Chiang Mai in the next 12 months with 15,000,000 bt. Not much compared to many of the members of this forum, but I'm only drawing this conclusion from reading the numerous posts in regards to savings.

35 Year Plan in US Dollars:

Current Investments: $300,000

Return: 8%(80% invested in stocks - 60% US/40% international)

Inflation: 3.1%

US Taxes: 5%( should be less - only taxed on realized gains)

Income:

Teaching 20-30 hrs a week: $500

I might work for an international company if a good opportunity presents itself. I'm currently an exec with, albeit short(3yrs), a successful record. Not sure if I want to join the rat race in another country.

Annual Cash Needs:

$18,000 ( simple but comfortable lifestyle)

I don't plan on living off any of my investment income for the first 2-3 years. I hope to have $50 -100k outside of my investments.

Setup Costs(will not need to dip into investments):

Car: $7,000

Scooter: $1,000

Accommodation: $0 ( I'll be renting)

Anticipated savings balance In 35 Years in todays dollars: $400,000

If social security is around, I'll get about $1,000 in todays dollars starting in year 36. I haven't contributed much over the last 20 years, because I only worked half the years and traveled the others.

Backup Plan if investments decline substantially over the next 10 yrs:

Teach full time or return to the US

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Plan looks good, $18k is more than enough for a comfortable lifestyle here in Changers.

It works out to be 54,000 baht per month. Unless your out bar fining and sugar daddying every night a sensible person will go far with that amount.

You've got $300,000 already, that alone could be enough to live off out here. It wouldn't be masses but if you teach english its pretty doable. $400,000 to $500,000 of investments is a pretty good benchmark to aim for and would give at least 80K baht per month.

39 years old and saving up for 35 years. Personally I'd hate to retire out to Thailand when I'm in my mid-70s. However that savings plan would mean you'd be loaded for action!

I would'nt bother hiring a scooter, buy a bike instead as you'll save money in the long run.

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Myself, I'd say setup a few more backup plans with more detail. You're planning for 35 years. That's quite an event horizon with all kinds of +/- possibilities. For example, when you want to redecorate/refurbish your home or business.... they say it'll really cost you 3 times as much and take about twice as long as you plan. And that's usually just planning a few months into the future in one single aspect of your life.

Are you a Siam American? It'll help if you plan to live here long term.

:o

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Current Investments: $300,000

Return: 8%(80% invested in stocks - 60% US/40% international)

Inflation: 3.1%

A serious medical condition could eat up your entire savings very quickly. You should factor in the cost of good quality medical insurance.

Your investment plan is a little naive. You should probably talk to a professional advisor. Some things to consider:

(1) There have been prolonged periods where equity returns have been less than 8% per annum - and past performance is no guide to future performance

(2) A 100% equity portfolio is unnecessarily risky. Further diversification, including bonds and commercial property would reduce your portfolio volatility.

(3) If you live in Thailand, the USD is not your "home currency". Foreign exchange markets are very volatile, and movements of 30% in one year aren't uncommon. (The Baht itself has appreciated 15% against the USD this year - making people with their income in US Dollars quite a bit poorer.) Why, therefore would you want 60% of your investment in dollars?

Economies periodically undergo periods of much higher inflation than 3.1% - particularly in times of financial crisis. It's happened in many countries with better developed financial systems than here; it may well happen in Thailand some time over the next 35 years.

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If I understand your post correctly, you saved 10,000,000 Baht in a couple of years, which is about $280,000 dollars. You also say that over the last 20 years your SS contributions have not been that high because you only worked half the year. Hope you don't mind my asking, but what line of work are you in?

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At the bottom of this post is my 35 year plan. I'm currently 39 years old and in good heath. Do you think the plan makes sense?

I made my first post to this forum 2 years ago. I had left Thailand about a year before and had managed to save 2,000,000 bt in that year. I was aching to return to Thailand and asked if this was enough to setup permanently in Thailand. I received some great responses to my inquiry. Most of the responses advice was to save more money. I came to the same conclusion. I've managed to save another 10,000,000 bt the last couple years and I'm happy with the decision to stay in the rat race. My plans now are to move to Chiang Mai in the next 12 months with 15,000,000 bt. Not much compared to many of the members of this forum, but I'm only drawing this conclusion from reading the numerous posts in regards to savings.

35 Year Plan in US Dollars:

Current Investments: $300,000

**As you will be living in Baht, you need to make a plan that includes baht. God knows the exchange rates in a few years or in 35 years.

Return: 8%(80% invested in stocks - 60% US/40% international)

**Investing internationally is great, but you did not specify Thailand in there. You could have a limited Thai investment to be used for a few years so if the baht strengthens, you will not have to use lower valued foreign currencies to live on, and if the baht weakens, you can use higher valued foreign currencies to live on.

Inflation: 3.1%

**Leave the USA or Thailand for five years and then return. Look at the prices of everything and then tell me if you believe the inflation figures. Make your plan including 5% inflation.

US Taxes: 5%( should be less - only taxed on realized gains)

**If that is all that you are paying then my hat is of to you. Consider setting up your investments in off-shore havens to avoid more taxes.

Income:

Teaching 20-30 hrs a week: $500

**Great. Have you every taught before? I did it for many years, and now no longer want to stand in front of a classroom. Find an alternate or two alternate professions.

I might work for an international company if a good opportunity presents itself. I'm currently an exec with, albeit short(3yrs), a successful record. Not sure if I want to join the rat race in another country.

**I wish you the best of luck, as Bangkok has a great number of well-educated and successful business people who are looking for the same opportunities.

Annual Cash Needs:

$18,000 ( simple but comfortable lifestyle)

I don't plan on living off any of my investment income for the first 2-3 years. I hope to have $50 -100k outside of my investments.

**Sounds more than adequate, and be prepared for inflation.

Setup Costs(will not need to dip into investments):

Car: $7,000

** Try to find a car a little nicer than this.

Scooter: $1,000

Accommodation: $0 ( I'll be renting)

Anticipated savings balance In 35 Years in todays dollars: $400,000

If social security is around, I'll get about $1,000 in todays dollars starting in year 36.

**My grandmother used to get about $230 / month in the early 1970s. That was real money then. Retirees on SS today are not able to buy the same goods and services that my GM could then. If you are looking to receive SS far in the future, it is in your best interests to estimate that you will lose 2% / year in buying power compounded, and that is after including the COLA increases. SS does not keep up with real inflation.

I haven't contributed much over the last 20 years, because I only worked half the years and traveled the others.

**I am in the same boat, as I will never get anything. I have lived all but three years out of the USA since I was twenty.

Backup Plan if investments decline substantially over the next 10 yrs:

Teach full time or return to the US

**The best plan you have is to spend carefully. As long as you are going to have the income that you show above, you can live here comfortably. YOu have to be careful with your money.

***Look forward to your new life.

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You've got a nice nest egg, but 8% return on investments over 35 years is optimistic. 7.5% is far more likely. Similarly, 3.1% for inflation is way too low - 5% is far more realistic. So, your net yield would be 3% or less, on your invested principal.

Your story about your SS earnings don't quite make sense. At your age, SS might be dead, or half what it is, when you retire. And, the formula won't give you $1,000 with all those empty years unless many more years were at the maximum FICA limit which is now around $85,000. The formula averages your highest 35 years' earnings (adjusted for inflation), and you might only get $400.

Teaching school is not easy; it's extremely difficult and frustrating. Not something to start a career in at your age, unless you already have B.Ed and M.Ed.

Good luck.

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"My plans now are to move to Chiang Mai in the next 12 months with 15,000,000 bt. Not much compared to many of the members of this forum, but I'm only drawing this conclusion from reading the numerous posts in regards to savings."

Would all TV members falling into this category please send me a PM..................I´d like to send you my bank details and a request for a small contribution.............................I´ve obviously been doing something wrong all these years....... :D:D:o

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Myself, I'd say setup a few more backup plans with more detail. You're planning for 35 years. That's quite an event horizon with all kinds of +/- possibilities. For example, when you want to redecorate/refurbish your home or business.... they say it'll really cost you 3 times as much and take about twice as long as you plan. And that's usually just planning a few months into the future in one single aspect of your life.

Are you a Siam American? It'll help if you plan to live here long term.

:o

No, I'm not Siam American. I agree - there will be many +/- possibilities. If I'm hit with an unexpected expense, I'm frugal enough to limit some of my other expenditures in the short term. My goal is to find the a happy medium where I can have a good time now and not be finantially challenged later in life.

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If I understand your post correctly, you saved 10,000,000 Baht in a couple of years, which is about $280,000 dollars. You also say that over the last 20 years your SS contributions have not been that high because you only worked half the year. Hope you don't mind my asking, but what line of work are you in?

I've added 250k(closer to 9mil bt at current exchange rate) to my 50k savings the last 2 years. I live a simple life and save 70-80% of my earnings after taxes. Currently I'm in the mortgage industry.

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**As you will be living in Baht, you need to make a plan that includes baht. God knows the exchange rates in a few years or in 35 years.

**Leave the USA or Thailand for five years and then return. Look at the prices of everything and then tell me if you believe the inflation figures. Make your plan including 5% inflation.

US Taxes: 5%( should be less - only taxed on realized gains)

**If that is all that you are paying then my hat is of to you. Consider setting up your investments in off-shore havens to avoid more taxes.

**Great. Have you every taught before? I did it for many years, and now no longer want to stand in front of a classroom. Find an alternate or two alternate professions.

**I wish you the best of luck, as Bangkok has a great number of well-educated and successful business people who are looking for the same opportunities.

**Sounds more than adequate, and be prepared for inflation.

** Try to find a car a little nicer than this.

**My grandmother used to get about $230 / month in the early 1970s. That was real money then. Retirees on SS today are not able to buy the same goods and services that my GM could then. If you are looking to receive SS far in the future, it is in your best interests to estimate that you will lose 2% / year in buying power compounded, and that is after including the COLA increases. SS does not keep up with real inflation.

I haven't contributed much over the last 20 years, because I only worked half the years and traveled the others.

**I am in the same boat, as I will never get anything. I have lived all but three years out of the USA since I was twenty.

**The best plan you have is to spend carefully. As long as you are going to have the income that you show above, you can live here comfortably. YOu have to be careful with your money.

***Look forward to your new life.

Thanks for the advice - I agree with all your points. I taught part time In CM and found it to be OK. I was lucky enough to get good students that found me interesting. I would rather not teach, but want the extra income.

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You've got a nice nest egg, but 8% return on investments over 35 years is optimistic. 7.5% is far more likely. Similarly, 3.1% for inflation is way too low - 5% is far more realistic. So, your net yield would be 3% or less, on your invested principal.

Your story about your SS earnings don't quite make sense. At your age, SS might be dead, or half what it is, when you retire. And, the formula won't give you $1,000 with all those empty years unless many more years were at the maximum FICA limit which is now around $85,000. The formula averages your highest 35 years' earnings (adjusted for inflation), and you might only get $400.

Teaching school is not easy; it's extremely difficult and frustrating. Not something to start a career in at your age, unless you already have B.Ed and M.Ed.

Good luck.

Thanks for sharing your opinion. I disagree about annual returns. 8% is conservative and much more likely than 7.5%. I don't have my HP calculator, but by my calcs the S&P 500 average annual returns are 8.5% over the last 35 years. I pulled some data at http://www.finfacts.com/stockperf.htm and the US stock market has returned 11.83% over the last 30 years. I don't have data on international indexes, but my bet is they are going to perform better than the US market in the next 20 years. I'm new at investing in stocks(2006 was the 1st yr I had substantial amount of money in the market), but this year my internal rate of return is currently 25%. I don't expect this to continue, but 8.5% is realistic.

I used the SS calculator at the social security website to determine my benefits(approx. 1k). I've contributed the max 7 of the years I worked. SS is just gravy and I'm not depending on it. I have a much better chance of inheriting a few 100k that I will mostlikely pass along to someone.

In regards to teaching, I'm sure it has its challenges. Most jobs do; that's why we get paid and I didn't find it to be difficult or frustrating. I've taught in Thailand without a B.ED and had no problems. My degree in business admin was fine and I'll TFL cert this time around.

Thanks for wishing me luck and the same to you

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"I pulled some data at http://www.finfacts.com/stockperf.htm and the US stock market has returned 11.83% over the last 30 years."

*****

looking at market indices only can be very deceiving as shares are individually weighted. e.g. a single heavy-weight moving up can influence the DOW positively whereas all other stocks might have lost the same day.

much more important however is that stocks comprised in indices are slowly but continuously exchanged. the losers are kicked out and the winners are brought in thus giving a wrong expression as far as long time performance is concerned.

best example to demonstrate the afore-mentioned claim is the DOW. since inception of this index ONE SINGLE stock has survived (General Electric) whereas the others have disappeared.

as you are partly in international markets, take a look at the Nikkei which noted at nearly 40.000 exactly SEVENTEEN YEARS ago and is now a tad above 17.000.

like others i strongly advise that you reduce your stock exposure and add a minimum of 50% bonds in various currencies. of course i am prejudiced as i made all my money with bonds and hardly ever touched stocks. but it is much easier to plan and extrapolate with fixed income than joining the stock market casino.

for the record: i am happily retired sind 17 years and 26 days, living a rather luxurious lifestyle by spending ~25% of my income and reinvesting the 75% surplus.

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According to my basic calculations, you seem to be able to save US$10,000 per month. I know it might not be what you want to hear, but if in that position I would be tempted to continue working for a couple of years and basically double my nest egg - then you would have no worries at all.

You're only 39 after all - Two more years (and all the time knowing what the prize at the end of it is) would fly by.

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"I pulled some data at http://www.finfacts.com/stockperf.htm and the US stock market has returned 11.83% over the last 30 years."

*****

looking at market indices only can be very deceiving as shares are individually weighted. e.g. a single heavy-weight moving up can influence the DOW positively whereas all other stocks might have lost the same day.

much more important however is that stocks comprised in indices are slowly but continuously exchanged. the losers are kicked out and the winners are brought in thus giving a wrong expression as far as long time performance is concerned.

best example to demonstrate the afore-mentioned claim is the DOW. since inception of this index ONE SINGLE stock has survived (General Electric) whereas the others have disappeared.

as you are partly in international markets, take a look at the Nikkei which noted at nearly 40.000 exactly SEVENTEEN YEARS ago and is now a tad above 17.000.

like others i strongly advise that you reduce your stock exposure and add a minimum of 50% bonds in various currencies. of course i am prejudiced as i made all my money with bonds and hardly ever touched stocks. but it is much easier to plan and extrapolate with fixed income than joining the stock market casino.

for the record: i am happily retired sind 17 years and 26 days, living a rather luxurious lifestyle by spending ~25% of my income and reinvesting the 75% surplus.

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"I pulled some data at http://www.finfacts.com/stockperf.htm and the US stock market has returned 11.83% over the last 30 years."

*****

looking at market indices only can be very deceiving as shares are individually weighted. e.g. a single heavy-weight moving up can influence the DOW positively whereas all other stocks might have lost the same day.

much more important however is that stocks comprised in indices are slowly but continuously exchanged. the losers are kicked out and the winners are brought in thus giving a wrong expression as far as long time performance is concerned.

best example to demonstrate the afore-mentioned claim is the DOW. since inception of this index ONE SINGLE stock has survived (General Electric) whereas the others have disappeared.

as you are partly in international markets, take a look at the Nikkei which noted at nearly 40.000 exactly SEVENTEEN YEARS ago and is now a tad above 17.000.

like others i strongly advise that you reduce your stock exposure and add a minimum of 50% bonds in various currencies. of course i am prejudiced as i made all my money with bonds and hardly ever touched stocks. but it is much easier to plan and extrapolate with fixed income than joining the stock market casino.

for the record: i am happily retired sind 17 years and 26 days, living a rather luxurious lifestyle by spending ~25% of my income and reinvesting the 75% surplus.

Hmm...this makes sense and I may need to reevaluate anticipated returns. Would investing ETFs that track indexes(e.g., SPY, FXI...) closely match the returns of the underlying indexes? I own FXI , EWO, EWY, and SPY. If I had more time to dedicate to investing, I think I could beat the before mentioned index returns in the long run. I have to admit over the last year my returns on ETFs have more than doubled the basket of stocks I purchased; I hope this is just an aberration. I'm new at this investment game and need to educate myself on other investment vehicles(bonds...).

I have learned a little over the last year:

* Don't jump on the bandwagon - it's already to late

* Stocks with high P/E might payout, but rarely do. For every Google there are 10 losers

* Don't panic - I almost did last May and would have lost thousands

Dr. Naam, Thanks for the informative post.

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if you are going to move here when your 40 then how will you get residence visa etc? too young for retirement i believe?

My wife is Thai. I'll get an "O" visa and sort out the visa details after I arrive. In my previous post, I didn't mention my Thai wife. I know this doesn't qualify me for a long term visa, but I'm sure there are work arounds. I also didn't include her income. She was making 10-12k bt a month selling live insurance when I met her. I assume now that she is fluent in Engish, her income will increase.

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According to my basic calculations, you seem to be able to save US$10,000 per month. I know it might not be what you want to hear, but if in that position I would be tempted to continue working for a couple of years and basically double my nest egg - then you would have no worries at all.

You're only 39 after all - Two more years (and all the time knowing what the prize at the end of it is) would fly by.

Your right, but Thailand is in my thoughts all the time. My desire to return to Thailand is inexplicable. I have great job where, for the most part, I control my own destiny. I've grown my business unit 400% over the last 2.5 years. Now I'm bragging, but I'm proud of my accomplishments. It's amazing what a simple person can do if fully dedicated to any endeavor. Part of what has driven me is my desire to return to Thailand with a decent nest egg. I think I've accomplished that.

The company I work for just gave me a new compensation package. Recently I let them know my plans weren't long term. The contract is structured to keep me into 2008. My total comp will be substantially increased, but my quarterly bonuses were changed to annual. The contract state that the annual bonus will be paid no later the march of 2008. If I can't get back my quarterly bonuses, I'll leave in early 2007 after maximizing my 401k and clear the 15% tax bracket. They might try to offer a management position in the Philippines, but I don't think I'll take it.

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Hmm...this makes sense and I may need to reevaluate anticipated returns. Would investing ETFs that track indexes(e.g., SPY, FXI...) closely match the returns of the underlying indexes? I own FXI , EWO, EWY, and SPY.

By all means stick to ETFs, as diversified as possible. Also note that in some years there will be drawdowns to your equity - bearish years - you better hold at least 10%-20% of your portfolio in bonds to balance that, and gradually move more from ETFs to bonds as you get older and are running out of alternative options for income. You don't want to experience a 30% drop in one year when you're 65.

If I had more time to dedicate to investing, I think I could beat the before mentioned index returns in the long run.
That will be quite careless and irresponsible to assume. Most Mutual Funds, with armies of experts and money managers, who get paid millions of dollars a years, are not able to beat the market consistently. On what grounds do you assume you will? I am not saying you shouldn't try to, but when it's your retirement money on the stake, I wouldn't use more than 10% of the equity for hand-picked stocks.
I have learned a little over the last year:

* Don't jump on the bandwagon - it's already to late

* Stocks with high P/E might payout, but rarely do. For every Google there are 10 losers

* Don't panic - I almost did last May and would have lost thousands

Believe me, there is much more to learn. The more I learn, the more I see how much I don't know.

Good luck!

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If I had more time to dedicate to investing, I think I could beat the before mentioned index returns in the long run.
That will be quite careless and irresponsible to assume. Most Mutual Funds, with armies of experts and money managers, who get paid millions of dollars a years, are not able to beat the market consistently. On what grounds do you assume you will? I am not saying you shouldn't try to, but when it's your retirement money on the stake, I wouldn't use more than 10% of the equity for hand-picked stocks.

have no reason to think to think I can beat the returns, other than there are many irrational investors and badly managed mutual funds. There have been many studies(can't remember the sources) showing that an investor could equal the returns of most mutual funds by randomly picking stocks. This would be a good argument of why it's hard to beat the average market returns in the US. Stocks as a whole are priced accurately and it's difficult to pick the winners. Personally, I would be happy with a 10% return on individual stocks. I aggree with you - I have much to learn, but that has alwats been the case. Good advise about investing in bonds.

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I agree with the person who said $7000 wasn't enough to budget for a car.

Agree with the comment that if you worked for a couple of more years and doubled your nestegg you'd be laughing.

I would reduce your exposure to the falling US$ if I were you.

But hey, everyone's needs are different. Enjoy.

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I am confused. It sounds like you have enough to retire a whole village, not just yourself. That amount is an enormous amount here. Are you and other people really concerned it is not enough????? I am no economic wiz, but I really do think that is way way way enough already.

Paul

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siamamerican,

there's another advice you should consider. your mind is obviously set to live in Thailand (with the advantage of being married to a Thai lady). once you leave the states grind your teeth, dissolve your 401k plan, pay off the IRS and move your assets offshore to Singapore. in a few years you will have recovered those taxes paid and live happily ever after tax free except for the thai peanuts income tax.

in addition you are not handcuffed anymore by U.S. legislation which prevents the private average investor to buy and sell any assets as he pleases.

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"I pulled some data at http://www.finfacts.com/stockperf.htm and the US stock market has returned 11.83% over the last 30 years."

*****

looking at market indices only can be very deceiving as shares are individually weighted. e.g. a single heavy-weight moving up can influence the DOW positively whereas all other stocks might have lost the same day.

much more important however is that stocks comprised in indices are slowly but continuously exchanged. the losers are kicked out and the winners are brought in thus giving a wrong expression as far as long time performance is concerned.

best example to demonstrate the afore-mentioned claim is the DOW. since inception of this index ONE SINGLE stock has survived (General Electric) whereas the others have disappeared.

as you are partly in international markets, take a look at the Nikkei which noted at nearly 40.000 exactly SEVENTEEN YEARS ago and is now a tad above 17.000.

like others i strongly advise that you reduce your stock exposure and add a minimum of 50% bonds in various currencies. of course i am prejudiced as i made all my money with bonds and hardly ever touched stocks. but it is much easier to plan and extrapolate with fixed income than joining the stock market casino.

for the record: i am happily retired sind 17 years and 26 days, living a rather luxurious lifestyle by spending ~25% of my income and reinvesting the 75% surplus.

Hmm...this makes sense and I may need to reevaluate anticipated returns. Would investing ETFs that track indexes(e.g., SPY, FXI...) closely match the returns of the underlying indexes? I own FXI , EWO, EWY, and SPY. If I had more time to dedicate to investing, I think I could beat the before mentioned index returns in the long run. I have to admit over the last year my returns on ETFs have more than doubled the basket of stocks I purchased; I hope this is just an aberration. I'm new at this investment game and need to educate myself on other investment vehicles(bonds...).

I have learned a little over the last year:

* Don't jump on the bandwagon - it's already to late

* Stocks with high P/E might payout, but rarely do. For every Google there are 10 losers

* Don't panic - I almost did last May and would have lost thousands

Dr. Naam, Thanks for the informative post.

Your looking at markets that have had an almost unprescidented run.. for every swing of the pendulum there is a swing the other way..

This is a retirement nest egg.. play very defensively..

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I am confused. It sounds like you have enough to retire a whole village, not just yourself. That amount is an enormous amount here. Are you and other people really concerned it is not enough????? I am no economic wiz, but I really do think that is way way way enough already.

Paul

Depend show you live.. I was surprised to discover my burn rate has gone from about 120k per month to almost 200k in the last half of 2006.. This guy is still young, theres many many more years he needs to make from that.

I am not saying its not possible but I wouldnt have relocated with assets around those levels.. I would definately do a couple more years to add to that and increase the comfort buffer.

The idea of running out of money when old with no where to go would really freak me out. Aint easy to get back into working and making money in your mid 60's after a 20 year break.

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Just one comment. You will be working 7 days a week to make $500 a week in most teaching positions in Chiangmai. Good luck on that figure.
I thought he meant $500 per month, which is now about 19,000 baht/month. It seems ludicrous, though, to go from the incredible earnings he currently claims, to earn 250 baht per hour in Chiang Mai.
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I would also agree with some of the other posters, stay for at least another three to four years in your present situation. It seems that you have no problem saving and that extra 20,30 or even 40 million baht is going to put you in a much better position. I am 45 and I am also contemplating moving to Thailand but will make sure that I can survive and live a decent life off my investments or small business that I purchase. Just take your time and look at the big picture, I hope what ever you decide works for you.

Steve

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