Thailand set for balancing act during Tillerson trip

By WASAMON AUDJARINT 
THE NATION

 

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson gestures before the 10th Lower Mekong Initiative Ministerial Meeting at the sideline of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers Meeting (AMM) and Related Meetings in Manila./EPA PHOTO

 

Academics urge govt to protect national interest in talks with top US diplomat.

TOMORROW’S visit to Thailand by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will challenge the Kingdom on how to balance itself among powerful Western allies and its regional partners amid conflicting issues, particularly the Korean peninsula and the contentious South China Sea tensions, experts say.

 

Tillerson will meet Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha and Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai tomorrow following Asean ministerial meetings in Manila where the issues of North Korea’s nuclear ambition and militarisation in the troubled sea heated up. 

 

He will also visit Kuala Lumpur during his trip, having put emphasis on the denuclearisation of North Korea, ongoing efforts on drafting a Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea and counter-terrorism issues as they relate to Southeast Asian nations, including Thailand.

 

While Thailand is the US’s oldest Asian treaty ally, it also has diplomatic and trade ties with North Korea. The ruling Thai junta has also leaned on China, a major claimant over disputed territories in the South China Sea, notably on military hardware purchases and infrastructure deals.

 

The Prayut-Tillerson meeting will also cover bilateral issues, including Prayut’s tentatively proposed visit to the White House. It will also take place directly before Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s meeting with Prayut and Don , pencilled in for Wednesday or Thursday.

 

Experts contacted by The Nation said they believed that Bangkok could make deals with each side while not falling into dependency on any of them.

 

“Thailand could signal that it is willing to see serious COC negotiations and also bring pressure on North Korea but the US and Japan must deliver more aid and investment to Thailand,” said Paul Chambers, a lecturer at Naresuan University’s College of Asean Community Studies.

 

Washington’s offer of military and economic aid to Bangkok may determine how much it can move Thailand to its line on the issues, Chambers said. The offer should also better what Beijing is willing to provide as well as depend on how few conditions such aid is tied to. Still, he noted, Thailand should not position itself as a proxy to any superpower as the policy of bending with the wind would appear weak.

 

Thanet Aphornsuvan, Thammasat University’s expert in US studies, said he believed that the US puts more emphasis on regional countries like Thailand to build multilateral agendas on the relevant issues. 

 

To enhance the US responses on Thailand, the Kingdom could signal to the US more understanding on balancing its strategy on the South China Sea, for instance. “But Bangkok must also maintain its neutrality and address only key principles without any binding commitment,” Thanet said.

 

Viboonpong Poonprasit, a political science lecturer at Thammasat, agreed that it was safe for Thailand to maintain a low-key stance with the US. Washington is keen for closer ties, knowing that Bangkok is developing closer bonds with Beijing, “Tillerson’s visit implies that the US shuts an eye to the Thai junta government. This can be of advantage to us. But it should be reminded that the US wants to encourage Thailand to take a visible stance on conflicting regional issues,” Viboonpong said.

 

To minimise potential conflicts, he added, Thailand would be wise to voice an Asean-based or international consensus when having to express its stance.

 

Given that President Donald Trump’s administration makes geopolitical and economic interests his top priority, Chambers said he believed human rights and democracy deficits in Thailand would likely be left out of the Prayut-Tillerson meeting agenda. Prayut might even ask Tillerson for Thai political exiles in the US to be repatriated, he said.

 

But Viboonpong said the restoration of democracy would remain on the US agenda for the Kingdom, which should reiterate its so-called “road map to democracy” to the US while enhancing its performance on human rights.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30322993

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-08-07

Que fake smiles, prevarications, and subtle requests...

A poster of dogs playing poker is more interesting than any of what will happen here.

Ah just like old time gangster gatherings


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3 hours ago, webfact said:

Prayut might even ask Tillerson for Thai political exiles in the US to be repatriated, he said.

He can ask, but unless they have not asked for refugee status or have committed a crime deemed worthy of deportation, Trump administration has had bad luck with the ACLU and federal judges. 

 

This meeting does not look as though it will bear much fruit for the US.

On the plus side, Thailand won't have to worry about discussions regarding human rights, trafficking, freedom of speech and press, etc etc.

All polite smiles and subject to short term memory loss. The Americans (and others) fall for it every time.

4 hours ago, webfact said:

which should reiterate its so-called “road map to democracy” to the US while enhancing its performance on human rights.

having worked for exxon for 7+ years , i can assure you that this ex CEO is way ahead of whomever in thailand will talk to him;  he will be smart and well prepared and , very much, not be swayed by superficial talk and excuses; can identify idle BS immediately; secretary of states look to action , not just contentless speech

Edited August 7, 20178 yr by YetAnother

It will be a beautiful, beautiful meeting.

 

Just great. 

43 minutes ago, YetAnother said:

having worked for exxon for 7+ years , i can assure you that this ex CEO is way ahead of whomever in thailand will talk to him;  he will be smart and well prepared and , very much, not be swayed by superficial talk and excuses; can identify idle BS immediately; secretary of states look to action , not just contentless speech

Yeah right so he ignores and identifies as BS almost everything his President says!

 

America First! 

 

He will only be seeking to keep the US landing rights open and exclusive at Utapo

" but the US and Japan must deliver more aid and investment to Thailand,” said Paul Chambers, a lecturer at Naresuan University’s College of Asean Community Studies."

 

I don't understand how a Country that has the money that Thailand has could accept 'aid' from another country. Isn't it embarrassing to get 'aid' , either military or economic.  It would seem beneath a country with dignity, that has so much and indeed spends so much on military already to accept money from other nations. Perhaps the USA is insulting Thailand by thinking they can buy (or rent) the assistance of Thailand on freedom of the seas, helping with the North Korean problem or whatever the Americans are after in South East Asia..

He'll probably don his "Wayne Tracker" persona for this meeting?

2 hours ago, Emster23 said:

On the plus side, Thailand won't have to worry about discussions regarding human rights, trafficking, freedom of speech and press, etc etc.

Quite so.

Thailand can expect the same treatment given to other US allies as long as they stay on the reservation.

Thai blackmail system!
Thailand must first supply and then it can make demands!

But that is part of this society: first the others and then maybe myself but only if it suits me, without consideration for others

The Trump Administration could care less about Thailand's internal issues.  They are after assurances that Thailand will allow the basing of American warplanes in Thailand should America go to war with North Korea. In addition, there will be questions about the temporary basing of rotating troops via Thailand's bases and using Thailand as an R and R center just like the Vietnam War era.  Tillerson is looking for assurances  that will help America to prepare for war with North Korea.

 

Thailand will be looking to purchase American military equipment at favorable prices which will in turn lower the trade deficit.  A win win situation for both countries. Smiles all around.

2 hours ago, Thaidream said:

Thailand will be looking to purchase American military equipment at favorable prices which will in turn lower the trade deficit.  A win win situation for both countries. Smiles all around.

"lower the trade deficit"

 

Thailand is currently running a trade-surplus, not a deficit, perhaps you meant the government's own fiscal-deficit, which is long-running ?  They're two different things. 

 

https://www.google.co.th/search?q=thailand+trade+balance&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b&gws_rd=cr&ei=3RqIWfirKMLtvgTgiazoDg

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/government-budget

 

 

"conflicting issues, particularly the Korean peninsula and the contentious South China Sea tensions, experts say."  from the OP  ...

 

Happily both are too far away or 'not affect Thailand', for the Thai government to wish to disagree, with whatever the Chinese government wants.  Now a change-in-position on that would make Rex's journey a little bit more worthwhile !

 

 

5 hours ago, scotchonrocks said:

Yeah right so he ignores and identifies as BS almost everything his President says!

 

Stupid. Grow up.

On 8/7/2017 at 0:14 PM, Thaidream said:

basing of American warplanes

That really makes no sense as aircraft must flyover China and the contested south China Sea for North Korea missions - not going to happen. South Korea, Japan, Okinawa and The Philippines are immediate support territories for US strikes. Add three to four aircraft carrier battle groups for immediate targeting.

However, I doubt South Korea will assist in a first strike against North Korea and will only respond to an attack by North Korea.

The Prayut-Tillerson meeting will also cover bilateral issues, including Prayut’s (1) tentatively proposed visit to the White House. It will also take place directly before Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s meeting with Prayut and Don, (2), pencilled in for Wednesday or Thursday.

 

Re point (1), such a meeting, if it were to happen, is already late, according to Thailand's most respected newspaper and the word 'tentative' just about sums up the way the junta goes about its work . . . proposals for 'this and that' initiatives that never seem to materialise. The world and the White House, too, must be holding its breath, regarding both the agenda for and outcome of this visit, the greeting handshake, especially.

 

(2) Nearly a week after these 'pencilled in' meetings - rather like I'd pencil-in calling in at 7-11, MAYBE, on my way home - we hear that it was agreed that, for one of the issues - the one regarding N Korea's nuclear programme and threats of war with the US - the United Nations should be 'the vehicle for resolution of such tensions'. Was neither Prayut/Don nor Lavrov aware of the UN's recent unequivocal condemnation of N Korea's behaviour? Do they really think that Kim-J-Un would so much as lend an ear to what the UN might further have to say on the issue? Talk about the blind leading the blind . . . just as well that Thai/Russian talks are of absolutely no consequence in the world of 'real' politics.