Yingluck verdict holds the key to reconciliation

By POLITICAL NEWS DESK 
THE NATION

 

 

Decision concluding rice-pledging case will have wide-ranging implications for politics.

 

AN EAGERLY awaited verdict in the case of former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra tomorrow could determine the future of Thai politics.

 

There are three major scenarios possible regarding the fate of Yingluck, who is charged with negligence stemming from her government’s corruption-plagued rice-pledging scheme. 

 

The Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Political Office Holders could find her guilty and sentence her to a prison term; she could be found guilty and given a suspended sentence; or she could be found not guilty.

 

Before “judgment day”, political observers are eager to see if Yingluck will follow the lead of her big brother, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who fled the country before the same court in 2008 sentenced him in absentia to two years in jail for abuse of power. 

 

Yingluck could either opt to escape or wait until August 25 to hear the court’s verdict.

 

If she thinks she will be found guilty and opts for the first choice, it would be a point of no return for her. She would be on the run for the rest of her life, as Thaksin has been, living in self-exile overseas for almost 10 years now.

 

 

A second choice – facing the verdict although it might be “guilty” – would not be the end of the world for Yingluck, as she would still have an opportunity to fight on. 

 

If the verdict is against her, the ex-PM still has the right to appeal within 30 days, according to the current Constitution. And some legal experts have pointed out that the timetable could be extended. 

 

An appeal would help her buy more time for freedom and the court might eventually uphold the verdict or reduce the penalty. 

 

However, any imprisonment of Yingluck would not be good for the image of the ruling National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO). Her imprisonment would make her a more sympathetic figure and could elevate her to the status of a “democracy icon” – similar to Myanmar’s former opposition leader and Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who spent 15 years under house arrest under her country’s military dictatorship.

 

“The NCPO would prefer that Yingluck flee the country rather than face the verdict. If she escapes, she will fall into the junta’s trap,” a political observer said on condition of anonymity.

 

A guilty verdict, however, would not be good for reconciliation efforts and it could be used by Yingluck’s Pheu Thai Party to draw sympathy and support ahead of the general election scheduled for next year. The party could emerge victorious, winning more than half the 500 seats in the House of Representatives.

 

If she is found guilty and given a suspended jail term, it would be a compromise option that could maintain the momentum of reconciliation. 

 

Such a verdict could help ease political tension and buy time for Yingluck. 

 

Whatever the verdict, pressure would be eased as both the prosecution and defence would be likely to appeal. 

 

By appealing a guilty verdict, Yingluck would run the risk of being sent to jail and foregoing her suspended sentence, although there is also the possibility the court would dismiss the case against her.

 

However, even a suspended jail term could become a stigma for Yingluck’s political career and her enemies could take advantage to undermine her popularity.

 

The third scenario – in which Yingluck is acquitted – would be the worst-case scenario for the NCPO, but the best one for Yingluck and her Pheu Thai Party. However, some political observers view this scenario as the least likely. 

 

If the court dismisses the case, pressure from the anti-Thaksin camp will mount on the NCPO while it will be highlighted by the Pheu Thai in the run-up to the next general election.

 

For many critics, that scenario would make the NCPO’s May 2014 coup a “waste of time”, so the anti-Thaksin camp would pressure the junta and public prosecutors to appeal the acquittal. As a result, reconciliation attempts would go nowhere.

 

Apart from the criminal implications, a guilty verdict would put more weight on authorities’ civil action against Yingluck seeking damages of Bt35 billion in connection with losses from the rice-pledging scheme.

 

Yingluck faces an administrative order for her to pay compensation for losses, but she recently petitioned the Administrative Court seeking a revocation of the order. An acquittal in the negligence case would also give the former prime minister an edge in her request for the administrative order to be revoked.

 

Some legal experts have said an acquittal would not mean the Administrative Court would necessarily grant Yingluck’s request, as judges would still need to look into the details of her innocence or whether there was an intention to cause damage.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30324726

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2017-08-24

After reading this article, it is  quite obvious which scenario has been chosen.

This will be a game changer as the outside world looks at it???

2 hours ago, webfact said:

If she is found guilty and given a suspended jail term, it would be a compromise option that could maintain the momentum of reconciliation. 

 

I seem to have missed a few things...

 

What "momentum of reconciliation' is he talking about?

 

All is see is the Junta holding meetings with their own supporters on army bases.

 

Reconciliation efforts?  What reconciliation efforts?

There can be no reconciliation whilst Thaksin is still alive. Pheua Thai need to be reborn, free of any Shinawat influence.

Pheua Thai needs realistic long term policies- education for example, to help the grass roots. not catchy superficial nonsense such as one scholarship ,one district.

Thailand is not AIS.

But then who will pay the village headmen and the canvassers? Who will pay the MPs to make sure they pay homage to whichever Shinawat is in power?

If Yingluk hadn't introduced the amnesty bill  Pheua Thai would still be in power today. But she couldn't resist her older brother's demands.

Expel the Shinawats, red shirts and grass roots!

What ever the out come of the  verdict, 

it will be a short sighted gain.

A vortex of miss trust will  continue, 

like so many Bedouin tribes who can never let go of the past for hundreds  of years

hate, greed , vindictiveness, continues on and on and on,

 

 

 

 

32 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

 

I seem to have missed a few things...

 

What "momentum of reconciliation' is he talking about?

 

All is see is the Junta holding meetings with their own supporters on army bases.

 

Well, he was reconciliating with an Issan frog recently.

2 hours ago, webfact said:

However, even a suspended jail term could become a stigma for Yingluck’s political career and her enemies could take advantage to undermine her popularity.

very much doubt that stigma; seems high profile people here are Expected to have checkered backgrounds

Why should a defendant's popularity be of concern to the court?

 

Why pander to those who support criminals demanding they escape prosecution in the name of "reconciliation"?

 

What advance in Thai democracy is there if the ballot box over-rides the law?

41 minutes ago, CaptHaddock said:

Reconciliation efforts?  What reconciliation efforts?

hey, their BS is getting higher grade 

Edited August 24, 20178 yr by YetAnother

12 minutes ago, Siripon said:

There can be no reconciliation whilst Thaksin is still alive. Pheua Thai need to be reborn, free of any Shinawat influence.

Pheua Thai needs realistic long term policies- education for example, to help the grass roots. not catchy superficial nonsense such as one scholarship ,one district.

Thailand is not AIS.

But then who will pay the village headmen and the canvassers? Who will pay the MPs to make sure they pay homage to whichever Shinawat is in power?

If Yingluk hadn't introduced the amnesty bill  Pheua Thai would still be in power today. But she couldn't resist her older brother's demands.

Expel the Shinawats, red shirts and grass roots!

Yes, expel the majority of the country. To where, one might ask. Is this the Yellow version of "Let them eat cake"? This is the true spirit of reconciliation, what a brilliant suggestion. 

1 hour ago, wakeupplease said:

This will be a game changer as the outside world looks at it???

I don't think the outside world gives a toss what goes on in Thailand.

why monkeys have no politicians?

They dont need them .

they have a fight ...the strongest wins ...and all is quit again.

 

In politics the weaker wants to win because he has more money.......not fair at all .

Suspended sentence,2000 THB fine...  seems the norm for HiSo influential  people here.

regards worgeordie

There is a reason that she has not fled the country ....... 

14 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

Suspended sentence,2000 THB fine...  seems the norm for HiSo influential  people here.

regards worgeordie

 

They cannot charge more than 499+1....

There can be no reconciliation whilst Thaksin is still alive.

...

Expel the Shinawats, red shirts and grass roots!

 

That's a very large number of people to "expel" isn't it?

 

Where do you think.they should be expelled to?

 

What degree of force do you consider appropriate to ensure they are expelled?

 

Who should do the expelling, bearing in mind that the "forces of the state" are primarily conscripted from amongst the children of those you would be expelling?

 

Don't you think it would be better to keep them in some sort of feudal serfdom, bonded by low wages to the few, the splendid few, who really should run the place.

Who knows, a few more scraps may fall from their table to benefit their supporters...

 

1 hour ago, halloween said:

Why should a defendant's popularity be of concern to the court?

 

Why pander to those who support criminals demanding they escape prosecution in the name of "reconciliation"?

 

What advance in Thai democracy is there if the ballot box over-rides the law?

 

Democracy in Thailand will never advance while the military repeatedly stage coups and the rich continue to evade justice.

 

Yingluk will be found guilty and given a suspended sentence and her finances will take a big hit.

1 minute ago, Denim said:

 

Democracy in Thailand will never advance while the military repeatedly stage coups and the rich continue to evade justice.

 

Yingluk will be found guilty and given a suspended sentence and her finances will take a big hit.

Very poor attempt at answering basic questions, really just a diversion. OTOH at least you made some attempt, your democracy loving mates will avoid them like the plague.

Its already decided. Suspended sentence and let's have the cash. Money talks!

Given the mentality of the people in this country, we would not see any light at the end of the tunnel.

It's a forgone conclusion that Yingluck is going to go to prison. 

 

As for "reconciliation efforts" here's a riddle. 

 

Q.  How many legs does a dog have if you count the tail as a leg.

A.  Four, because a tail isn't a leg no matter how you count it.

My take on her 'crimes' is "Did she have her nose in the trough" or "Was she extremely naive"

I said a year ago if Yingluck escapes a jail term she will be free to run for Pm again, one big thing about that is the now PM is a big-time law breaker as of when he carried out the coup. in other words, she could put the general away for a long time, in fact, who ever becomes the new PM will have to have the general arrested. as a matter of law.

20 minutes ago, johnarth said:

I said a year ago if Yingluck escapes a jail term she will be free to run for Pm again, one big thing about that is the now PM is a big-time law breaker as of when he carried out the coup. in other words, she could put the general away for a long time, in fact, who ever becomes the new PM will have to have the general arrested. as a matter of law.

It has never happened in the past that Thai coup leaders were punished by subsequent governments.  The generals have always been fully able to protect themselves.

Edited August 24, 20178 yr by CaptHaddock

16 minutes ago, CaptHaddock said:

It has never happened in the past that Thai coup leaders were punished by subsequent governments.  The generals have always been fully able to protect themselves.

That's is why Thailand can never have reconciliation when the injustice is so bloody obvious and those who should be trialed for treason and economic malaise will never ever be convicted. The establishment and military holds the key to reconciliation and not Yingluck's verdict. Yingluck is only a blip of the democracy history but coups are the only constant. 

5 hours ago, candide said:

After reading this article, it is  quite obvious which scenario has been chosen.

 

Broken record syndrome.

55 minutes ago, HHTel said:

My take on her 'crimes' is "Did she have her nose in the trough" or "Was she extremely naive"

 

Or was she simply badly controlled? I suspect she simply followed orders. And the plan for plausible deniability wasn't clever enough to see the move for negligence and malfeasance. 

 

But I doubt they really thought the amnesty bill would provoke their expulsion from power.

6 hours ago, webfact said:

that scenario would make the NCPO’s May 2014 coup a “waste of time”

all coups are a waste of time