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AOC Moves Ahead of Newsom for 2028 Presidential Nomination

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has moved ahead of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) in early prediction-market odds for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, according to data on Polymarket.

As of Wednesday, Ocasio-Cortez had an 18% chance of winning the Democratic nomination on Polymarket. Newsom was listed at 17%, leaving Ocasio-Cortez narrowly in front.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) ranked third in the same market at about 16%, the data showed. The figures represent odds being offered and traded by participants as the race begins to take shape, rather than any official nomination process.

Focus after announcement on egg freezing

Ocasio-Cortez’s position in the market came as she drew heightened attention this week following her decision to freeze her eggs. She has also posted updates about the process on her social media accounts, which, according to the report, drew mixed reactions.

That publicity has led to increased visibility for her among voters and observers, but it has not changed the underlying point that the prediction-market odds are based on traders’ expectations.

Different markets show different favourites

While Ocasio-Cortez held the lead on Polymarket, traders on Kalshi still ranked Newsom as the favourite. The two platforms are tracking sentiment in separate sets of trades, and the early odds therefore do not match across the markets.

The split underscores that prediction markets can vary depending on who is trading, the pricing mechanisms used, and how quickly new information is reflected in each platform’s odds.

The early numbers, regardless of which candidate leads on a given site, are not formal polling and should not be treated as a direct guide to who is more likely to ultimately seek the nomination. Prediction-market prices can change as campaigns, fundraising and public statements evolve over time.

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13 August 2026

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Smokey and the Bandit Gold Member

Smokey and the Bandit

Advanced Member

Do you really want this woman to be President????🤣😂

Caldera Ruby Member

Caldera

Advanced Member

If the Democrats don't get their act together and manage to nominate a candidate who is attractive to swing voters and even some moderate Republicans disgusted by the Trump/MAGA clown show, they may very well face yet another Harris disaster.

HappyExpat57 Ruby Member

HappyExpat57

Advanced Member
1 hour ago, Leopold Bloom said:

What a strange thread this is, where normally sane (I hope) contributors mumble their utterly weird views on the electability of all these morons.

For example:

Newson arises each day to see which way the wind is blowing and adjusts his opinions accordingly.

AOC visits Europe and in a powder-puff interview demonstrates beyond all reasonable doubt that she is as thick as two short planks.

Harris: cackles and has a mind completely devoid of all coherence.

One could go on, but the one consistent theme is that all these semi-insane people have never had an original thought in all their lives.

For what it's worth, these leaders are SUPPOSED to be aware of which way the wind is blowing. They represent their constituents. This is a GOOD thing!

JimGant Ruby Member

JimGant

Advanced Member
4 hours ago, HappyExpat57 said:

I still maintain Bernie would have won because the largest group of active voters are the independents who would have thrown all their votes his way.

No. Independents are middle types. Their ideals are not hard left, or hard right. They're independent because they have found their party of choice has become: hard left, Democrats; hard right, Republicans. Thus, they have no place to go, but to sit back.

Bernie is a hard left socialist -- who would have turned-off the independents.

Hopefully, in 2028, there will be a Romney-like candidate with the Republicans -- and maybe a Senator Warner (Virginia) type with the Democrats. That will give many, including independents, attractive choices.

Unfortunately, attractive choices are too smart to run for office in the current situation.

novacova Star Member

novacova

Advanced Member
8 minutes ago, BusyB said:

Unlike the current incumbent eh?

Absolutely, it’s nice to know that you’re in agreement.

Jingthing Legendary Member

Jingthing

Advanced Member
(edited)

I'm not a fan of AOC which might be a generational thing for me.

But people are forgetting something big.

There is a huge demographic that is unmined.

NON VOTERS.

It's not only about democrats, republicans, and independents.

Get the NON VOTERS excited about any candidate regardless of party and ideology and you win in the general.

Yes such a candidate would be a populist of some kind, as is AOC and also of course as is Trump.

That's where her potential lies and it is very real.

Some will say she's too young.

That what they said about Obama and they were wrong.

When Chris Christie was hot he was told and listened to wait his turn. That was stupid, he lost his opportunity.

Which brings up Jon Ossoff who is being seen as the Jewish Obama.

He is quite young and will probably wait for his turn.

Arguably he should go for it now.

I see him as a more unifying populist than AOC.

(Why? Well I' feel AOC is playing the generational warfare care too strongly, while Ossoff has a maturity more likely to attract older voters. Also Ossoff won't be tagged with the democratic socialist label nearly as easily as AOC).

It's a big deal for him to have done so well in deep south Georgia compared to AOC's not nearly as impressive success in New York.

Edited by Jingthing

Yasobill Apprentice Member

Yasobill

Member

I don't see either of them as viable, worthy candidates.

Kelly is viable in my opinion.

Vance is not as sharp as Rubio, but Rubio has a bit of arrogance & temper at times. Tough call there.

Jingthing Legendary Member

Jingthing

Advanced Member
(edited)
8 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

In my opinion Vance would be very easy to beat, and I seriously doubt if he will ever be permitted to run by the GOP. Even Trump seems to dislike him at this point. He's very unlikable, he's actually quite creepy.

Vance will be a president at least ar the very end of Trump's term..

Long enough for Trump to resign and get Vance to give him a pardon.

That said. I think Trump will either resign or fade to black long before that.

Edited by Jingthing

Jingthing Legendary Member

Jingthing

Advanced Member

Kelly is too much of an establishment democrat.

I don't think that's what the doctor ordered for these strange times.

spidermike007 Star Member

spidermike007

Advanced Member
14 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Vance will be a president at least ar the very end of Trump's term..

Long enough for Trump to resign and get Vance to give him a pardon.

That said. I think Trump will either resign or fade to black long before that.

You make a pretty good point. I seriously doubt that Trump will make it to the end of his term. His health is failing, his mind is failing and if the Dems gain control in the midterms he will either have to commit suicide or resign, more than likely.

And don't forget pardons do not affect state crimes, only federal crimes. So there's always a chance that he could get locked up for the rest of his life. However I seriously question If America has the spine to do something like that.

Watching Trump spend the rest of his life in prison would be an absolutely beautiful thing to witness. He certainly deserves that.

bbe1836d-ad88-4443-9904-c8eae765c163.jpeg

John Drake Diamond Member

John Drake

Advanced Member
7 hours ago, HappyExpat57 said:

Heavy sigh, here we go again.

I comes down to actual electability. Harris had that "fingernails screeching down the chalkboard" laugh. AOC has that baby girl voice no one will take seriously. Bill Clinton won an election with the women's vote being an important facet. When asked why they voted for him, a large number of them said they thought he was cute.

The entire demographic of young liberal, especially white, women see AOC as embodying everything about their own lives. She's 36 years old, putting her career first, taking aim to freeze and make possible her personal reproductive capacity for later on, has ditched her white boy friend, and distanced herself from what she calls Woke 1.0. It doesn't matter that she's ignorant--she is. She has also exhibited the capacity to change her voice and accent depending on the audience she is speaking to. She is formidable. And Trump's absolute ineptness and crudeness will reinforce her looking like the best alternative, especially as JD Vance continues to flounder. Finally, all the whack job socialist/communists running to her left is going to make her look like the conservative choice.

earlinclaifornia Platinum Member

earlinclaifornia

Advanced Member
1 hour ago, Wingate said:

AOC is smart and charismatic. I differ with her on a good many policy issues, but there is no denying she comes prepared. Watch her in an House Hearing and she can be devastating to MAGA sycophants.

Her main plus for me is she would make MAGA heads explode, if she won.

It's still 2 years away. Watch Jon Ossoff.

I think when the time comes, and the US is tired of President Vance (after Trump passes), the Dems will go practical and select someone who offends the fewest number of voters. I think "Jewish" offends fewer people than "gay", so Ossoff or Josh Shapiro over Pete Buttigieg. Jason Crow is also an up and comer, maybe a VP on the ticket. Ossoff-Crow is a nice ticket.

Good suggestions. My support has been with Andy Beshear. Pairing w AOC

ronnie50 Platinum Member

ronnie50

Advanced Member

I really don't get all the various posts about 'commies'. Does anyone personally know a communist? Has anyone ever met a communist? The word 'commie' gets thrown around almost excclusively by the American right as far as I can tell, and lumps that word together with socialists.

A 'Communist" is someone who supports a centralized economy with the government in control of all state assets (so it controls and directs all factories, all agricultural production, every kind of manufacturing). It demands 100% compliance to its directives. In theory, the collective profits are then returned to the workers in the form of salaries. In the cold war it failed miserably. The remaining 'communist' countries like China and Vietnam are communist in name only. They eventually embraced capitalism and China is now the world's second largest economy.

A 'Socialist' is someone who believes that government, industry and society in general should be 'socially responsible' and that the good of the nation and its people should be paramount. The assets of the country - like natural resources (minerals, oil, gas, forests, water) should be retained by the nation for its own profit and not privatized. It does not mean private industries can't make a profit. It believes (generally) that health care, education and well-being of disabled citizens should be universally paid for by government and taxes and not privatized. There are many countries that follow this or similar systems - mostly northern European. Canada falls a bit in between the socialist model, but IMO leans more toward the American model (with notable exceptions).

HappyExpat57 Ruby Member

HappyExpat57

Advanced Member
2 hours ago, JimGant said:

No. Independents are middle types. Their ideals are not hard left, or hard right. They're independent because they have found their party of choice has become: hard left, Democrats; hard right, Republicans. Thus, they have no place to go, but to sit back.

Bernie is a hard left socialist -- who would have turned-off the independents.

Hopefully, in 2028, there will be a Romney-like candidate with the Republicans -- and maybe a Senator Warner (Virginia) type with the Democrats. That will give many, including independents, attractive choices.

Unfortunately, attractive choices are too smart to run for office in the current situation.

No. Per our AI OVerlords"

"2016 Primaries: Exit polls across multiple states showed that approximately 70% to 73% of self-identified independents who voted in the Democratic primaries backed Sanders over Hillary Clinton. In open-primary states with high independent turnout like Michigan and Wisconsin, his support among this group reached roughly 71%–72%"

temuFarang Advanced Member

temuFarang

Member
59 minutes ago, ronnie50 said:

I really don't get all the various posts about 'commies'. Does anyone personally know a communist? Has anyone ever met a communist? The word 'commie' gets thrown around almost excclusively by the American right as far as I can tell, and lumps that word together with socialists.

A 'Communist" is someone who supports a centralized economy with the government in control of all state assets (so it controls and directs all factories, all agricultural production, every kind of manufacturing). It demands 100% compliance to its directives. In theory, the collective profits are then returned to the workers in the form of salaries. In the cold war it failed miserably. The remaining 'communist' countries like China and Vietnam are communist in name only. They eventually embraced capitalism and China is now the world's second largest economy.

A 'Socialist' is someone who believes that government, industry and society in general should be 'socially responsible' and that the good of the nation and its people should be paramount. The assets of the country - like natural resources (minerals, oil, gas, forests, water) should be retained by the nation for its own profit and not privatized. It does not mean private industries can't make a profit. It believes (generally) that health care, education and well-being of disabled citizens should be universally paid for by government and taxes and not privatized. There are many countries that follow this or similar systems - mostly northern European. Canada falls a bit in between the socialist model, but IMO leans more toward the American model (with notable exceptions).

A socialist is someone who believes in collective ownership of business.

Tug Star Member

Tug

Advanced Member
4 hours ago, Leopold Bloom said:

What a strange thread this is, where normally sane (I hope) contributors mumble their utterly weird views on the electability of all these morons.

For example:

Newson arises each day to see which way the wind is blowing and adjusts his opinions accordingly.

AOC visits Europe and in a powder-puff interview demonstrates beyond all reasonable doubt that she is as thick as two short planks.

Harris: cackles and has a mind completely devoid of all coherence.

One could go on, but the one consistent theme is that all these semi-insane people have never had an original thought in all their lives.

Well let’s just take a little peekaboo at this statement ehh??Newsome in charge of the state producing the effin 4 th largest economy on our Little Rock w call earth….heck California by itself should have a seat at the g7…..and yes we are overtaxed and regulated that issue could certainly be tuned up.AOC is definitely a rising star highly intelligent and working class people relate to her but she needs more experience in my view.now we come to Harris ….raised in a single parent household earned her degree became a DA then attorney general for California…..did I mention the size of that economy??became a senator then VP……sorry dude but nope.👎

temuFarang Advanced Member

temuFarang

Member
1 minute ago, Tug said:

Well let’s just take a little peekaboo at this statement ehh??Newsome in charge of the state producing the effin 4 th largest economy on our Little Rock w call earth….heck California by itself should have a seat at the g7…..and yes we are overtaxed and regulated that issue could certainly be tuned up.AOC is definitely a rising star highly intelligent and working class people relate to her but she needs more experience in my view.now we come to Harris ….raised in a single parent household earned her degree became a DA then attorney general for California…..did I mention the size of that economy??became a senator then VP……sorry dude but nope.👎

Let me turn the tables on you. Trump is in charge of the world's largest economy on the little rock called Earth. Also, Harris's parents were both college professors, not some crack hoes from the ghetto.

ronnie50 Platinum Member

ronnie50

Advanced Member
9 minutes ago, temuFarang said:

A socialist is someone who believes in collective ownership of business.

No. That's closer to communism.

According to Oxford Dictionary: Socialism and economic theory that a country's transport, resources and chief industries should be owned or controlled by the state.

Nothing about collective ownership of business (other than 'chief industries').

Tug Star Member

Tug

Advanced Member
1 minute ago, temuFarang said:

Let me turn the tables on you. Trump is in charge of the world's largest economy on the little rock called Earth. Also, Harris's parents were both college professors, not some crack hoes from the ghetto.

Yup good strong genes absentee father grew up lower middle class had to help with her college expenses….now trump all on his own has exploded our deficit 28% in six short years with nothing of note for our people to show for it.oh and daddy bought trumps degree after he got out of the rich guy’s reform school aka the military academy….so there ya are….+ Harris is smart enough to delegate and listen to experts in their fields…..trump cannot if they try to speak truth he ruins their careers,I suspect many of them are trying to keep their heads down and survive this abomination of an administration.a sad state in my view.

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