Status Of Tsunami Deaths

[Richard W]

http://www.chiangmainews.com/thenation/hea...s_15908069.html

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2004/12/28...s_15908069.html

Warning rejected to protect tourism

Published on December 28, 2004

Minutes after the earthquake hit northern Sumatra at 7.58am on Sunday, officials of the Meteo-rological Department, who were at a seminar in Cha-am, convened an emergency meeting chaired by Supharerk Tansrirat-tanawong, director-general.

They had just learned that the Bangkok office had reported a quake measuring at 8.1 on the Richter scale, which was much lower than the

level officially recorded later.

“We didn’t think there would be subsequent seismic waves, because a similar quake of 7.6 on the Richter scale, which hit Sumatra on November 2, 2002, did not affect Thailand,” said a member of the department who asked not to be named.

Moreover, the quake this time hit west of Sumatra and officials thought the island might offer a natural shelter, preventing any waves from breaking towards Phuket and its vicinity, he said.

With slightly less than one hour before the waves came ashore, Supharerk said, the department officials did not expect a tsunami. There are just four people on the department’s 900-person staff who are earthquake experts, he said. Also, a tsunami had not hit Thailand in more than 300 years.

But sources said they did discuss the likelihood that a tsunami could hit Thailand’s Andaman Sea coastal towns. This was also played down.

“The very important factor in making the decision was that it’s high [tourist] season and hotel rooms were nearly 100-per-cent full. If we issued a warning, which would have led to evacuation, [and if nothing happened], what would happen then? Business would be instantaneously affected. It would be beyond the Meteorological Department’s ability to handle. We could go under, if [the tsunami] didn’t come,” said a source who attended the meeting.

“We hesitated for a while whether we should issue a warning or not. It was discussed but we didn’t have a chance to do it.”

Supharerk denied that tourism factored into the discussion at the 11th hour. “I think we have done our best,” he said.

Precisely at 9am that Sunday, waves as high as 3 to 10 metres hit the main southern coastal provinces of Phuket, Phang Nga, Krabi and Ranong.

Pravit Rojanaphruk

The Nation

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Who will take responsibility for negligent response?

Someone must be held accountable for the mishandling of information that lead to the thousands of deaths in the south of Thailand. Two years ago a similar quake of less magnitude hit the same area. The Meteorological Department issued warnings of possible tidal waves for the southern coast of Thailand. The tidal waves never arrived, but the general consensus was that “it was better safe than sorry”. If one remembers, the Meteorological Department was later reprimanded by the PM for causing a disruption to the tourism industry and went on to say that Thailand has not experienced a tidal wave or tsunami for over 300 years and was not likely to experience any in the near future.

This time decisions were made based on the events of 2002. It was decided that the tourism industry should not be disrupted, as it was the policy of this PM and this government to promote tourism at all costs. In addition, this knowledgeable PM has already ensured that it was unlikely that a tsunami would hit Thailand. Therefore warnings were never issued, resulting in thousands of deaths, including a grandson of His Majesty the King. So, will anyone be held accountable for deciding that lives were worth risking for the purposes of tourism? Unfortunately the Thai word for “responsibility” or “accountability” incorporates the word for “taking blame” and “taking credit”, and it seems to be the norm for this government to take credit and neglect the blame. Credit must be given to the government for its efforts to assist the victims of this disaster, but let us not forget that if not for its arrogance, so many need not have perished.

Police Lt-Colonel Anantachai Hansasuta (Retired)

Bangkok

(The Nation Letters)

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This says it all.

I find it shocking when people say that it doesn't matter if there would have been a warning or not, there would not have been enough time etc. etc.

Tell this to the dead ones, tell this to the wounded ones, which would have only needed 5 minutes to get away from the immediate danger zone. A few phonecalls with orders to evacuate the beaches to the local brown boys could have saved some of them, especially in the tourist areas, where there are enough brown boys hangig around, not so very busy anyway, playing with their walkie talkies.

It makes allways sense to try to avoid as much as possible any possible death. A warning surely would not have saved all. But if it would have saved some, wouldn't that have been worth to try it?

Yesterday I read here that people asking questions got brushed off and told to not start "blaming". Well, if we do not ask questions we will not learn, and it will happen again. And now it shows that there is indeed someone, as they suspected, whose job it was to have a look for these things and to warn, if necessary.

Today we learn that in a similar situation a warning had been made 2 years ago, after a much weaker earthquake. And this time the warning had not been made, because the scientists had been too scared to get hit again by Mr. Toxin, who in his endless wisdom declared that there are no tsunamis happening here.

Nobody can be blamed for the earthquake. Nobody can be blamed for the tsunami. Nobody can and should be blamed for that. But obviously there is somebody having a massive influence to not give a warning, to not even try to save some lifes, because that would mean to risk some business interuptions.

I think the ones which lost so much here have a right to know why there was no warning, why there was even no attempt to warn, and whom to thank.

First the chicken did not obey the orders of Mr. Toxin and got sick, and now also the tsunami ignores his orders.

Sadly, he will get away with this once again, as usual. As pointed out here by others, most Thais have other things to do, this tsunami does not get very much interest.

I wish courage to all the rescue workers, and thank them for taking up such a terrible task. My thoughts are with you!

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How about the reports that indicate that Toxin knew of the tsunami risk but directed that no warnings be given, lest they lose tourist dollars..if it failed to materialise...

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If the rule of law applied in Thailand, would there be enough evidence for the overseas insurance companies and pension funds to sue him or the government for negligence? Even if he were only 30% to blame for the deaths, it could be worth their while. As it is, I haven't heard of any formal complaints of manslaughter being laid against him.

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I've moved the discussion to General Topics as I don't think it deserves to be relegated to the bearpit. I believe we're allowed to discuss the appropriateness of government policy and actions. The three items quoted above come from two threads where this important issue has been regarded as too sad or off-topic.

I can actually see some of these issues being raised at inquests in the UK, but this is very much related to Thailand.

I think it would be interesting to know if the government is covered by the equivalent of 'crown immunity'. I doubt politicians have malpractice insurance.

/Topic Reopened

/Topic Moved To subforum Tsunami politics and economic comments

/ We will allow your thread providing you keep it respectfull of the situation and Thai royalty.

Keep it clean and respectfull

Edited December 31, 2004 by Darknight

[The_Moog]

It becomes like the 'Bartender' situation in some parts of the USA, where the person serving the intoxicating drink can be put on trial.

Nobody will work as meterologists if they are found liable if they make a wrong call.

I'm not an expert in Thai jurisprudence, but I simply cannot see jail sentences being handed down here. Perhaps voluntary resignations, officials spending a spell in a Monastery etc etc

[Richard W]

Off-topic aside: The retired police colonel's remarks were remarkably restrained. After the warning two years ago, the Phuket governor *banned*  Smith Thamsaroj, the Meterological Dept scientist who issued the warning two years ago, from ever setting foot on Phuket again. The same scientist wanted to issue the warning this time, too but was barred from doing so (all this gleaned from watching recent Thai TV news, for what it's worth), as Phuket had used its influence to get him fired from the Dept. 

I just read in the BKK Post today that he has been reinstated in a higher position before, and has been put in charge of creating a tidal wave early-warning system for Thailand.

I do think the Thais are well aware that their govt screwed up, so not sure how much effect your handouts would have. Then again, perhaps Thais in the UK aren't hearing this news.

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Nobody will work as meterologists if they are found liable if they make a wrong call.

I'm not an expert in Thai jurisprudence, but I simply cannot see jail sentences being handed down here. Perhaps voluntary resignations, officials spending a spell in a Monastery etc etc

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As far as I am aware, the meteorologists, zey vere only obeying orders (policy may be a better word) laid down by Thaksin.

They weren't sure a serious tsunami would result. They thought Sumatra might shield Thailand. You may have seen the simulations which attribute the tsunami to crustal motion around the Nicobar and Andaman islands. There seems to be enough doubt around to make the conclusion that the tsunami might not affect Thailand reasonable. The question then becomes whether they acted reasonably on the other face of the conclusion, namely that the tsunami might affect Thailand.

Thaksin had created conditions where they didn't dare issue a warning when they weren't certain. It is for creating this lethal fear that Thaksin would be personally culpable, and is why I would expect him to tender his resignation if he were an honourable man. I would expect Thais to see his culpability magnified because the king's grandson is one of the victims, which is why I brought his name up. The resignation of the UK Defence and Foreign Secretaries when Argentina invaded the Falklands comes to mind.

[onethailand]

As far as I am aware, the meteorologists, zey vere only obeying orders (policy may be a better word) laid down by Thaksin.

Kindly produce some evidence that Thaksin was even made aware of the impending tsunami - as well as giving instructions to ignore the warning. I may not be a great fan of Thaksin but I also believe in laying blame where it belongs.

[Richard W]

As far as I am aware, the meteorologists, zey vere only obeying orders (policy may be a better word) laid down by Thaksin.

Kindly produce some evidence that Thaksin was even made aware of the impending tsunami - as well as giving instructions to ignore the warning. I may not be a great fan of Thaksin but I also believe in laying blame where it belongs.

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He may not have been aware of the possibility. That is irrelevant. The misdeed was done beforehand. I do not know whether any attempt to contact Thaksin was made, let alone whether it was successful.

As to the evidence of the instruction, I must admit I am relying on the following information:

• Police Lt-Colonel Anantachai's letter cited at the start of this thread.
  
• Sabaijai's recapitulation of the events of 2002, in the post before last. Note that the last official to issue a tsunami warning was sacked for doing so. I was not aware of that when I started this thread.
  

[Digger]

I really dont see the point of this thread. This is not the UK and what happens in another country is academic. Either as a foreigner you accept it for the way it is, or of course you have the option to stand on your principles and leave. Nothing is going to change as a result of this thread. Most Thai academics know the problems facing them, however the majority of the population have other more pressing concerns such as how they are going to earn enough money to support themselves.

These problems are way more deep than just this disaster.

[onethailand]

As to the evidence of the instruction, I must admit I am relying on the following information:

• Police Lt-Colonel Anantachai's letter cited at the start of this thread.
  
• Sabaijai's recapitulation of the events of 2002, in the post before last.  Note that the last official to issue a tsunami warning was sacked for doing so.  I was not aware of that when I started this thread.
  

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That last official, Smith Thammasaroj, has now been given responsibility for designing the warning system... LOL...

Like I've said elsewhere, Thaksin has made some pretty stupid decisions - but other than actually sacking Smith, one must admit that Thaksin wasn't exactly wrong either about issuing warnings which may not have been justified.

I guess, though, I'd accept that past precedent may have caused the Meteorological Department to hesitate. But I'd hesitate in pinning the blame squarely on Thaksin.