Steely Dan

What right do the Reds have to make any demands at this time? That's the big question.

Why do Abhisit and Suthep keep playing the game?

The Red leaders are squirming like worms on hooks trying to avoid any responsibility for their actions. Suthep surrender? Why? Due to deaths ensuing from Seh Daengs black shirted assassins? The dissolution date for parliament is another charade. Thaksin would never allow this to happen as it means he loses forever when the military succession takes place.

Moderate red leaders, if you have any shred of humanity get women and children to leave as the meglomaniac and psychopath seem intent on setting Bangkok ablaze.

Do you even know what the word "feudalistic" means?

Feudalism is a decentralized sociopolitical structure in which a weak monarchy attempts to control the lands of the realm through reciprocal agreements with regional leaders.

Now, if you really meant "feudalistic" I'd be interested to hear your further explanations. If you didn't mean it, then perhaps you shouldn't be using a word you don't understand.

How right you are Che! It's nice to find another stickler for correct nomenclature. How about we go with "Despotic Paternalism" rather than "feudalistic"?

Quite correct, the difference is huge as between Leningrad and St Petersburg.

Do you even know what the word "feudalistic" means?

Feudalism is a decentralized sociopolitical structure in which a weak monarchy attempts to control the lands of the realm through reciprocal agreements with regional leaders.

Now, if you really meant "feudalistic" I'd be interested to hear your further explanations. If you didn't mean it, then perhaps you shouldn't be using a word you don't understand.

Would you not say that the distribution of tea money through village elders or local mafia who control propaganda through local radio and use intimidation to ensure block voting is the very epitome of modern feudalism. A weak pliable police force who come to local understandings as to what to turn a blind eye to completes the picture. The 'class war' propaganda they come out with reflects the reality in just about every Asian Country and coming to think of it most Countries period. Still it makes a plausible story to tell the people whilst the local robber barons distribute the flow of nepotistic donations as best suits them.

Nothing in Thailand is as it first appears, underneath the game of drafts you see going on there is a more complicated strategic chess game going on. Abhisit played one of the few cards open to him when he offered the roadmap to reconciliation. Khattiya does seem to have developed some co-dependency with Thaksin and has definitely burnt his bridges. The rest of the red leaders, it is hard to say whether they have negotiated an exit from their current predicament or not.

The arrival of more redshirts yesterday is not a good sign at all and flies in the face of any conciliatory noises the red leaders make to the media. The crux of the matter is that since the deaths of 10th April it became quite clear to me that Abhisit was actually dealing with a hostage situation. The black shirts are almost certainly there not to 'protect' the red shirts, but to use them as shields preventing the army from dispersing the protest. They have no doubt been given the brief of fomenting a violent insurrection and were imho likely responsible for the shooting of a policeman yesterday as they were various attacks on the BTS etc.

The roadmap and any dissolution dates are a red herring, quite useless for Thaksin and Seh Daeng, who is a dead man walking if the current government presides over the army succession.

Now look at the kerosine soaked tyres, bamboo staves and razor wire, is this to keep the army out, or perhaps equally to keep reds in? The hate filled propaganda and promise of gold at the end of Thaksin's mystical rainbow has probably led to a mass incidence of Stockholm syndrome, where the rank and file reds wont' realize they have been used until it ends in a Waco style conflagration.

I hope I'm wrong, but unless the red leaders cut Thaksin loose and bargain with the government I see a terrible end to this. So please, yellow shirts keep out of this and let Abhisit play divide and rule or else I dread to think how this may end.

Soapies and of course the arse spray.

I'm just asking to see proof from a credible source. Maybe I'm asking too much? Just let me know if I should start believe in the Tooth Fairy too without seeing proof.

now then wheres that tooth?

Quite so, and then there's the one where Taksin accidentally admits to giving money to the redshirts.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18EmuIA4PbI...feature=related

The expression on his face is, priceless.

Are there any dating services where all the women registered are orphans? Just a thought.

This is the stupidest Thai soap opera in Thailand history.

I can't believe Abhisit sets down five generalities with no specifics that everyone on this planet would agree to - "motherhood and apple pie" and the red shirts agree to it and decide they might end the rally.

What Abhisit proposed is like the Declaration of Independence. They are truths any moron would agree to.

Fact is, he will not leave the country and he will not dissolve the House immediately. So the red shirts have LOST if they accept his offer.

This is ridiculous

So you're disappointed with a negotiated compromise (early elections) and the strong possibility of no further bloodshed?

I can't figure out of Abhisit just stumbled though this or if his largely non-violent reaction to the Reds was strategic. Either way, I'm glad that a workable compromise seems possible and that we didn't "slide into civil war". I know that a lot of the more warlike posters here (on both sides) will be disappointed that there was neither a revolution nor a crackdown (aside from April 10) but, quite frankly, violence would have solved nothing and just led to deepening divisions and future problems. Now, hopefully we can have an open and fair election.

Abhisit could have been more proactive in nipping the protests in the bud, but when it became clear that the Reds contained elements with the sole intention of causing a massacre he then played a blinder. Consider this; the police were neither use nor ornament and Thaksin had probably bought elements within the army making it very difficult for Abhisit to remove the reds by force. Nevertheless by handing control to the army chief was imho diplomatic code telling the army to show it's true colours.

Since then with Thaksin in twitter-mode The red leadership lost coordination and made several mistakes alienating many hundreds of thousands of people. With a new head honcho for the army likely to be anti-Thaksin and an ill (or dead?) Thaksin less able to bankroll the mass intimidation and vote buying I would bet a fair few people in the north decide to vote against the red stazi, we shall see.

If the law isn't enforced then there is no law, and no incentive to follow it either.

I agree the police and army are a huge part of the problem - they don't seem to concerned about following the instructions of the government. But given the quality of Thai politicians...perhaps its understandable.

Ultimately it all boils down to the fact that Thailand has crap governance. Nothing will change until they have a system that enforces accountability and punishes those who break the law.

Giving an amnesty to red/yellow leaders or to politicians dismissed for electoral fraud is not exactly a good start.

Tried looking up worldwide governance Indicators on wikipedia. You can see Thailand does have a problem here - look at the coloured map. Indeed the Countries colour coded pink are the only ones that fare worse and for some reason they seem to tally remarkably well with Thaksin's travel itinerary for the last year or so.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_Governance_Indicators

I would prefer that all of them get the book thrown at them for what they have done over the last few years, I just don't see Sondhi in prison overalls for one second, and wouldn't bet against any of them on all sides absconding if it became apparent that they would actually have to suffer the will of the law.

I bet right now the leaders of the PAD are paying some pretty close attention to the outcome of any potential amnesty deal. As ridiculous as it may seem, people of this ilk tend NEVER to go to jail in Thailand. Let's see if anything has changed in Thailand under Abhisit.

Yes, TIT and people can and do get away with murder here. The wife and I probably got one of the last planes out of swampy before they closed it, but we had to make it all the way back to CM from Phuket by train. I said at the time that the means did not justify the ends and the manner in which Abhisit came to 'power' left him with a poisoned inheritance. Yes I agree justice should be consistent for all, however I remember the police did very little to stop the PAD occupying the airport when I saw with my own eyes there were enough police there to stop them if they chose to act.

Abhisit's roadmap is fair enough, but simply having an army that marched to the same tune and a police force who were accountable would solve the majority of the problems, but this may take a generation to achieve.

I think the yellow shirt leaders are just as concerned with amnesty as the red shirt leaders. If the red shirt leaders don't get amnesty, that means that the yellow shirt leaders won't get amnesty either. And especially, people will ask for the yellow shirt trials to be finished before the red shirt trials ...and they're 2 years ahead on those. Do any of you see Sondhi Limthongkul, basically the yellow shirt founder and Thai media empire billionaire going to prison? No way. He'll be supporting amnesty for the red shirt leaders just to save his own bottom.

Any Red leader who had parliamentary immunity will not need an amnesty, the same applies to anyone who took part in the PAD rallies who also had immunity. EVERYONE else will have to take their chances - and frankly I don't give the Reds much hope of getting off the hook here. Apart from invading a hospital blocking the BTS, setting up their own roadblocks they have been found repeatedly to be violent, I would guess overwhelmingly more violent than the yellows to a ratio of say 20 to 1, all backed up and incited by the hate spewing from the mouths of red shirt leaders. To think that the red leaders will be let off the hook in order to let yellow leaders off the hook is simply delusional when you examine the relative seriousness of the violence and intimidation they were responsible for.

In order for Thailand to move forward ... there can be no amnesty, no rewards and sever penalties for those who blatantly broke the law when it comes to violence, hurting Thailand and the people of Thailand in an attempt to force change or overthrow the government. Elections will be meaningless unless these people are prosecuted and the people of Thailand see this is not only not the way to change but a guaranteed way to lose your freedoms and possibly life.

There has been a coup almost for every 4 year election cycle in the last 75 or so years. So, if you think the PM is serious about change then you will realize there can be NO amnesty. But they certainly are not going to go after those for simply being part of the mob unless they are still there in the coming days. The PM has made it clear over the last weeks he had a goal of clearing out all but the hardcore group from the mob to avoid injury and loss of life to those simply sucked up into this mess. So, guess what, that time is now. If the reds don't take the offer unconditionally then troops move in and the vast majority of Thailand will approve this and the PM will gain more popularity.

The reds lost. They could have walked away as winners when the PM offered this almost same exact deal when he agreed to talk to them live on TV and they refused to negotiate and instead have gone onto put 60k+ people out of work, cause untold economic damage to Thailand as well as many deaths and hundreds of injuries. All for what??? To take a deal they were offered at the start of this mess.

The lawless red mob has nothing to offer and nothing to negotiate with and the PM would only lose credibility if he talks with the anymore except to tell them how it is and how it is going to be.

In terms of natural justice I would agree, however I think it must be recognized that Abhisit can only play with the cards he has been dealt, which included an army with factional splits below the surface and a police force who are simply mercenaries to the highest bidder, who also exhibit paralysis for fear of ending up on the losing side. Also through no fault of his own he came to power as a result of the yellow shirt actions and regrettably some yellow shirt leaders were given political power as well as escaping prosecution. My wife was happy when the yellow shirts got their way but I said at the time the manner of their victory may prove Pyrrhic due to the likelyhood of red shirts copying their tactics.

Unpalatable as it may be I suspect a certain amount of horse trading is necessary in order to diffuse understandable accusations of hypocrisy. Perhaps this is a price worth paying if Thaksin is neutralized for good.

Finally whoever wins the next election will only head up a quasi-democracy until such time as the command and control of army and police answers directly to parliament - unfortunately nobody can vote for that.

Bearing in mind TIT I would expect suspended sentences and revolving prison doors for the vast majority; getting away with murder is alas part of the culture it would seem. Perhaps there has been some horse trading and maneuvering behind the scenes not only amongst the 'politicians' but also the military. I wouldn't be surprised to even see some red leaders given ceremonial political positions in a face keeping exercise, which though unpalatable is what happened with the yellow shirts after all.

I would settle for all of the above if the black shirts and their sponsors are thrown in jail and Thaksin is cut loose as part of a settlement and a group action strips him of any remaining funds he has to pay for the economic sabotage he has instigated.

Dear Mr. Forbes,

How did you get a single mouse/rat to be caught in two traps at the same time? I mean, you'd think after the first one sprung it would be enough... or is the picture staged?

His head would have got caught in the one on the left, flipping him up and around, and landing on the one on the right.

Okay, I get it. Sorta like the double whammy! You gotta hate when that happens.

I guess the boys in brown would have it down as a suicide.

I imagine a few boys will be OK - Veera for instance. They don't need all of the red shirt leaders on side to do this. They can get a few of the less radical guys to effectively 'rat out' the idiots. The idiots will also have their opportunity to rat out those who procured and used weapons and identify the people who REALLY directed this.

People that are co-operative will be handled more gently. The raids/arrests of late show that the DSI is adept in getting information out of people - so the only hope of the wrongdoers is to be co-operative too.

Yes, Hopefully this gives a face saving get out to more moderate leaders and leaves the mad-dogs to be thrown in jail to rot. I do see a danger of Seh Daeng wanting to go out in a blaze of 'glory' David Koresh style, but hopefully if this transpires it won't mean anyone being kept under duress to add fuel to his funeral pyre.

I did the opposite, dog from Thailand to the US. Thai people were shocked, and claimed he must have had a really good past life

If the cat is too old, perhaps giving it to someone, but how old is the dog?

You could always have given your dog to some kind Thai lady to look after and offer to send money by western Union if it got sick.

EDIT: Actually, that's wrong. The Chinese don't seem to hate the Malays, and more or less, simply don't give a shit. After all, they own the economy, and they know it, so don't seem to care what the Malays think.

Well, when you are milking a cow there is no point looking at it's face. Leaving aside any issues Chinese and Malays may have with each other Singapore seems to function pretty well without having the purest of democracies. Perhaps the Thais should re-consider whether they really want democracy - it might mean having to stop at zebra crossings.

Whenever there is an election, the reds win.

The wrong people keep winning the elections and have to be replaced by the elite.

Many of the elite rulers aren't even full blood Thais (part chinese), most of the reds are 100 percent full blood Thai.

Previously in countries when a small group, often from a different ethnic background to the majority, gained too much power there was an inevitable 'ethnic cleansing'

Jewish people in Germany

Pakistani people in Uganda

White people in Rhodesia

To name but a few. A bloodbath is almost inevitable IMHO.

The only thing delaying this bloodbath is their/our love for the King, let's all pray he lives to be 100.

If Seh-Daeng took charge of the Country it would God forbid give a disturbing echo to events 35 years ago when Pol Pot marched into Phnom Penh in Apr 75. Is Thaksin originally of Chinese origin by the way? Whether he is or isn't you can see how this could turn into a scapegoating exercise based on ethnic origin. Back to my Lord of the Flies analogy - If you can get people to believe in absurdities you can get them to commit atrocities.

The current situation needs careful management, if the reds are seen to get their way it sets a terrible precedent, on the other hand if the system based on privilege, nepotism and keeping the masses uneducated continues then the current unrest can flare up again at any time, especially due to possible future events we can't discuss.

The footage of soldiers firing rifles and BTS victims being taken to the hospital are taken seriously.

Definitely, this is a very serious situation. Unfortunately, it's at the point now where the red shirts CAN NOT win at any cost. If the red shirts win, judging from their previous actions, Thailand will definitely not be more democratic, as they've proven there in this for power, not democracy. They are constantly infringing on basic civil liberties, squelsh opposing view points (Khon Kaen airport, for one example), and so on. These aren't people who will be happy with free and fair elections, especially if the vote goes against them.

Really though, bring in the US military. Let PHYOPS (sp) do their job, and after a week the majority of the peaceful protesters should be gone (women, children, etc.). Then it's just the hardcore guys left over. Round them up, and arrest them military style. Then have military stationed in every major city, ready to quelsh any uprising that happens.

I think everyone, including Abhisit, understand the red shirts do have legitimate grievances, which need to be addressed. Maybe I'm wrong, but from where I sit, it appears the current government has realized this from the beginning, and has worked to better the lives of the NE Thailand folk. Problem is, although quite a few social programs are in place (and have remained in place under Abhisit), it's going to be probably another 10 years before the needed economy, infrastructure, and social programs are in place to the point where everyone is happy. However, the red shirts (peaceful ones) want everything yesterday, and it's simply not going to happen. Then the leaders just want power.

Yes it is sad, there are some legitimate grievances, however Thailand has proven itself just not ready for democracy. Democracy bears responsibilities as well as rights. To vote depending on policies and not paybacks is a responsibility, as is public servants performing their duties as instructed by their government, regardless of their personal views; I refer to the police and some factions of the army here. Democracy is about deferring personal gratification for the collective good, which means drink driving is not acceptable, nor is trying to buy favor, or exemption from responsibility.

The book Lord of the Flies, or should that be Thais is a great parallel for what is happening. It is as if a group of boys none older than 13 have been shipwrecked on an Island, form factions and eventually the evil which lurks within all of us gets the upper hand freed of any inhibiting sanctions.

The Red shirts and to a lesser extent the Yellow before them have followed this same route. Arrest warrants are ignored as the enforcers from judges to Police to even the army hedge their bets for fear of ending up on the losing side.

Sorry, this is not democracy, Thailand is not ready for it and won't be until the police and military unflinchingly do the bidding of the government in a professional accountable manner. Until then I'm afraid a benign dictator is the best solution. Abhisit would make a great prime minister in perhaps a decade from now but a lot of growing up needs to be done in the meantime.

I think it is more dangerous in Thailand to use a crossing to cross the Road, the traffic does not stop unless you walk and keep going, so they literally have do break hard. I recently returned from a Trip to Singapore, the Crossroads crossings were excellent and everyone used them because they were very safe, a lot safer than Thailand's.

As for the Cigarette butts, where really are we supposed to put them? are we supposed to put them in our pocket until we see a bin or ash tray? I am scared of even putting one in the gutter now. I always give mine to my Thai partner as i doubt they are out to fine him.

Are Cigarette butts allowed to be thrown into the gutter? does anyone know?

Exactly my experience. On a recent visit to Singapore I made the same observation to my wife when much to her annoyance I pressed the green button on a crossing before proceeding to step out without looking and doing a little tap-dance en-route to the other side. I then pointed nostalgically at what looked like a London bus before muttering about the 'white man's burden' and how colonization had done Singapore the world of good.

Maybe it's being subjected to China style censorship whilst government employees try to work out whether they have written anything we can't discuss here.

What with corruption, cronyism and total incompetency, I am starting to think that the Royal Thai Police force should be disbanded. How can they be replaced? Should they be replaced? Will the new one be as inefficient and as corrupt as the current one?

I cannot answer these questions. Maybe no police force is better than the one we currently have! Maybe crowds will roam the streets and anarchy will ensue. Gang rule. But look at Pattaya and the riots in Bangkok last week. Nothing was done.

This will probably cause a barrage of abuse, retorts, angry replies and insults. Call me innocent, stupid, naive or insane if you will. What do you think should be done? Should Thailand have to suffer the corruption and incompetency of the current police force?

South Korea did it;- I mean they replaced a corrupt dysfunctional police force with a new far less corrupt functioning force. I believe they retired all police above a certain rank addressed training and career development whilst at the same time coming down very hard indeed on corruption. If there is one single act which Abhisit could do to transform this Country it would be to begin this enormous task. The trouble is he would need sufficient mandate and enough influence to uproot the vested interests who would stand in the way.

If we just take Taksin out of the equation for 5 minutes, what is the real reason why thousands of people turn up in red shirts. Its not to help T get his money back and they certainly are not facing bullets for 500 baht a day. Its bcos they have spent many generations being shat on by the ruling classes and sensed an opputunity to vent their feelings.

For the genuine people in red, not the agitators, we should stand and applaud them for at last finding the balls to do something about their dire life of poverty. The little sideshows of T and Sondhi are clouding the picture. I am not in agreement with any violence and if the the reds take to the streets again and protest with no trouble I would personally applaud every last one of them. How many people making comments about the evil reds could survive on 1000 baht a month. They just want to share in the countrys wealth.

The army cannot protect the elite for ever and if T (new money)succeeds and sets foot back on home soil you will not be able to get a seat on any plane flying to China, Singapore and Hong Kong. Now that sight would make great tv. All the big boys stabbing each other in the back to get the last seat

One of the best posts that I have read on the situation so far!!

It might be except it's fantasy. Thaksin cannot be rehabilitated at this point. The question now is, who is he going to try to take down with him.

Take Thaksin down.. Whatever.. if Thaksin were to be killed tomorrow, the majority of people will still feel disenfranchised. What they need is a new election. This time follow through with democracy. Everyone must respect the vote. I live in the United States of American. It is how its done here. Even though there are people who do not like Obama, people feel like their vote counted and people aren't so unset as to start a civil war. Gaming the system so that your party always wins -- we'll there's a saying in the USA, "don't tread on me"... Trust me, if people's votes didn't count in the USA, there will be blood here too. But lucky for Americans, our votes count :-)

Yes, if you sold your vote for 500 Baht you would no doubt feel cheated by proxy if your paymaster didn't get their desired outcome.

Still a new election and a shiny new 500 Baht note would no doubt remove the feeling of injustice! Don't kid yourself that such a cynical disinterested population has suddenly discovered principle and ideology.

Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve - George Bernard Shaw

I thinks its an attempt to get the Yellowsirts on the streets, then total mayhem. Yellow leaders must exercise caution & restraint

I mentioned the other day that if I was in Abhisit's position I would consider trying to eliminate Thaksin if he couldn't be extradited from wherever he was hiding. Of course I missed a trick because from Thaksin's point of view getting the yellow shirts onto the streets would play directly into his hands - Of course Thaksin has the motive and I find it far more likely he was behind this than anyone else. The best move for the yellows strategically is to keep a low profile imho.

It would appear that whilst the average Thai in the streets plays drafts the leaders are using the same board to play chess on.

As long as we don't have socialized medicine I don't see the purpose with having helmet laws.

A law to force the protection of a brain that isn't smart enough to protect itself?

Call it culling out the bad genes.

Survival of the smartest...

Hmmm, yes you could say we are living in a Darwin awards theme park here; choose your method of exit please.