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Steely Dan
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Posts posted by Steely Dan
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I wonder whether the abused Banana trees were the cream of the crop or just the best of a bad bunch?
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I don't see how falling home prices can hurt the economy. Rising home prices have been draining the economy for years. Now we have more money to spend, yipee!
I take it you are joking?! The only thing keeping economies afloat in the U.S and U.K has been what is known as mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) which basically means that people have been borrowing yet more money using the positive equity in their homes as collateral, in other words using the said home as a giant ATM machine.
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there is no crisis is your manta , please make a note of it for future reference .
Do I detect progress? The lifecycle of a bear market. Complacency, Denial, Fear, Anger, Despair, Scapegoatism. Although as a foreigner living in Thailand I get the feeling sometimes the current government has jumped straight to scapegoatism.
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Investors' fears drag SET down
Worry law will be ultra-protective
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/08/10...ss_30044437.php
Am I correct in assuming that those who argued that the rise in the SET demonstrated the strength of the Thai economy will now take note of it's fall and conclude the economy is going down the tubes?
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lotus was a cp group company until it was acquired by tesco.
Been in Thailand a long time and can not remember a major supermarket chain called Lotus.
I guess it was a nothing company prior to joining with Tesco.
Naka.
Put it this way, if it was regarded by the government as a Thai entity then it wouldn't have so much resistance from the top when it came to opening new hypermarkets when a modicum of tea money should have sufficed.
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more then the baht getting stronger. ts the dollar that is getting weaker.
This seems to be the conventional wisdom/excuse/reason given for the current trend and motivated me to undertake a little research to see exactly how other currencies have fared against the Thai Baht over the last year.
This is what I found.
(Note: These figures are approximate. I've used one-year currency pair graphs from Yahoo to arrive at these figures. I apologize if I've left out any member's home currency)
USD - THB: drop = 21%
EUR - THB: drop = 15%
GBP - THB: drop = 15.6%
AUD - THB: drop = 12% (Australia)
CAD - THB: drop = 18% (Canada)
PHP - THB: drop = 13.5% (Philippines)
JPY - THB: drop = 25.75% (Japan)
SGD - THB: drop = 17.9% (Singapore)
CHF - THB: drop = 19.4% (Switzerland)
TWD - THB: drop = 23.7% (Taiwan)
ZAR - THB: drop = 22.5% (South Africa)
MYR - THB: drop = 15% (Malaysia)
NOK - THB: drop = 15.5% (Norway)
SAR - THB: drop = 20.8% (Saudi Arabia)
HKD - THB: drop = 22.5% (Hong Kong)
KRW - THB: drop = 18.75% (Korea)
CHY - THB: drop = 18.75% (China)
INR - THB: drop = 10.8% (India)
AED - THB: drop = 22.1% (UAE)
BRL - THB: drop = 10% (Brazil)
HUF - THB: drop = 7% (Hungary)
The winner is NZD (New Zealand) with about a 1% gain.
The conclusion is obvious. There's more to this than a declining US dollar.
I find it puzzling how the Thai Baht manages to outperform most other world currencies while Thailand is in the midst of a military dictatorship. Thailand seems to do everything it can to destroy its economy yet its currency strengthens beyond compare.
Well there are two possible explainations for the Baht's strength. Either the Thai economy is a worldbeater or speculators are bidding up the Baht for their own ends. Of course the speculators will intend on winning twice when they reverse their positions. P.S Dollar looking to have found a level to rise off against Sterling and the Euro.
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Like any good investor, if China was going to sell dollars they would have done it when the dollar was high, not as it's at its low.
On another note, it's funny how some folks think Bush is rather inept because he's weakened the dollar and then think the Thai govt. is inept by letting the baht strengthen.
Of course neither the Thai government nor Bush are inept viz their currencies but merely hapless bystanders. With regards to China selling dollars I would point out that as governments are the ultimate consensus machine their investment decisions tend to join bandwagons when they are about to end. I wouldn't be surprised if some governments do sell their dollars just as the dollar starts to rise again just as the UK sold down it's Gold reserves at $250 an oz.
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well folks the differential will get worse, the $ will continue its decline and baht stronger and thai economy continue to sink like bangkok into the water table.......bears stearns mortgage hedge funds blow up and the rest of the financial world holds its breath as this is just the tip of the US mortgage mess.....something wicked this way comes
Dollar Slumps to Record Low Versus Euro on Bear Stearns Losses
The dollar has fallen against 15 of the 16 most-active currencies since Bear Stearns said June 22 it had to bail out its hedge fund because of losses on securities backed by subprime loans.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home
Bear credit hedge funds almost wiped out: sources
Leveraged fund worth nothing; larger fund reportedly loses 91% of its value
Late Tuesday, one investor was bidding one cent on the dollar to exit their position in the High-Grade Structured Credit Fund, the person said.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bear...mp;siteid=yhoof
Disclaimer: This is not anti-US but in an inter-related world the biggest economy and it's currency effect us all.
The pound now stands at 2.055 to the dollar a level so high that as a contrarian I'm opening a $ account expecting a revision to the mean to at least result in a rate of 1.7. I am now buying goods from the U.S with sterling and having them shipped to Thailand as it makes economic sense at present. Of course the U.S has long accused China of having an artificially weak currency, but dollar movements of late have achieved the same result, the important thing to bear in mind is how much U.S paper is owned by China, Russia, Japan and the Middle east. If these Countries start cashing in their U.S paper the effect would be catastrophic hence I believe the Fed may even be forced to put up interest rates to support the dollar, hence if I was a rich Thai I would be buying dollars offshore and selling Baht like it was going out of fashion.
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If they install cameras along Walking Street Pattaya I'm prepared to act as a volanteer monitoring for suspicious activities.
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I found this a few moments ago on the Phuket Gazette Web site. Note that there is no report that the woman was drunk:
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Three die in Rawai smash
RAWAI: An accident on Wiset Rd left a father, his daughter and his niece dead, and his wife seriously injured after the motorbike they were riding and a car collided on Sunday evening.
Chalong Police were alerted to the accident in front of Baan Haad Rawai Bungalow about 8 pm.
Pol Lt Col Peeraphan Meemak, inspector of Chalong Police Station, told the Gazette that he arrived at the scene to find the body of 29-year-old construction worker Payont Waraputh next to a smashed Honda Wave motorcycle and a gold Honda Jazz with damage to the right of the front bumper.
K. Payont was returning from Rawai Beach when the collision occurred, said Col Peeraphan, adding that witnesses to the crash were yet to be interviewed.
K. Payont’s daughter Walaiporn, 8, and his niece Supitchaya Chaikiri, 6, had been taken to Vachira Phuket Hospital by rescue workers before Col Peeraphan arrived at the scene.
They died of their injuries on the way to hospital, the police officer said.
The driver of the Honda Jazz, Canadian Leslie Hand, 44, was returning from Chalong Circle to her home in Bang Khon Thee, Rawai, said Col Peeraphan.
Police found Ms Hand, who was not injured, waiting at the side of the road.
K. Payont’s wife, Wipaporn Buayoo, 25, remains in critical condition at Vachira Phuket Hospital. Police were unable to provide details of her injuries.
The bodies of the deceased were taken to Wat Lathiwanaram for funeral ceremonies.
Ms Hand was charged with negligence causing death, and released on bail yesterday.
Chalong Police are continuing their investigation.
Ah, so he was a She and alcohol was not mentioned. What did I write previously about Kafkaesque misfortune being but an eyewitness report away? By the way I am deeply saddened by this whole case but it is willfully obtuse to disregard the possibility of the deceased contributing to this tragedy to some degree.
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PM orders central bank to watch hedge funds, fearing attack on baht
Monday 16 July 2007 08:42:40 PM (GMT+7:00)
Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont asked the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Thailand to keep close watch on movements by hedge funds, fearing their hands in the currency appreciation.The prime minister’s edict came during the meeting Monday among members of Finance and Banking Committee of the National Legislative Assembly, according to Mr Santi Wilassakdanont, president of the Federation of Thai Industries who also attended the meeting.
MCOT Public Company Limited
I guess the PM should talk to Palm who would hand him a lollipop and state that hedge funds have no effect here.
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Thailand's Krung Thai Bank (KTB): Expecting terrible 2Q net earnings
KTB is expected to report terrible 2Q07 net profits of just Bt825m, plummeting 78% YoY and 82% QoQ.
Here's a key part of that press release:
- Expecting huge provisions. Provisions are expected to come in at Bt5.0bn on a consolidated basis, which is much higher than the Bt1.9bn in 2Q06 and the Bt1.1bn posted last quarter. This was the main cause of the huge drop in the bottom line. The reason behind our huge provision forecast is because we expect to see a sharp increase in NPLs (both new and re-entry).
NPL = Non-performing loan
Ouch...
LaoPo
This news follows on the heels of the Thai Military Bank not making a scheduled interest payment. It seems to me that an atmosphere of fear is spreading throughout the banking industry. Question is IF you had to keep significant funds in Thailand what Bank is rated the most able to service debt - anyone know how Moody's or other agencies rate the Thai banks relative to one another?
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we all know the procedure of the way thai people go about there lifes on the roads. I for one would never travel on a bike. Common sense kicks in when you see these people take risks joining the main roads from side streets without looking. Young people and school children riding carelessly weaving in and out to beat the traffic and there mates. AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR STORY. as Ive said in my previous post. Would this thread get the same attention if it was a thai driver who killed or injured the family
Probably not, but that is as much down to the consistently high death toll on the roads and the fact this forum is predominantly made up of non-Thais rather than down to any racism or double standard. Does anyone know the Canadian mans blood alcohol level? He could have been just under the limit or just over, the difference is huge when it comes to legal liability, but miniscule when you are in the pub and you decide (or not) to finish your drink. I think laws applied consistently transparently and without favouritism is a distant dream but as others have pointed out you could be completely innocent and still banged up for years due to a Kafkaesque turn of events, and that is worth debate here in my oppinion.
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Whatever were the true facts the total lack of responsibility that permeates Thailand has it's most tragic expression in the road death toll. Without pre-judging anything I admit to having driven drunk in Thailand on a couple of occasions. If I needed any rationalisation it was that everyone else does it, besides which if you are a farrang you are automatically deemed the guilty party. Nothing excuses driving drunk, but to stop drink driving farrang or Thai it requires a root and branch overhall of the whole enforcement system. I will add that I will never drive drunk again out of respect for my Thai wife who is very strongly anti-drink driving, so perhaps there is hope?
My condolences to the deceased, but the hang em high brigade should be even handed and reckognise the negligent system and endemic lack of responsibility as contributing factors.
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all you guys seem to foirget that those investing in SET can not sell and get out as you would in western countries. this is beacuse the BOT is holding 30% of all the indirect invetments. fund managers are aware of this and are still pouring in.
it seesm the largest funds in the world have decdided to take positions in the thai SET. those positions are long term positions and the rest of he funds gang is following. the Thai market is now one of the favorites for long term investments.
As such the stocks are going up as any fund manager is willing to invest long term in the Thai market.
once again a proof that the thai economy is not in crisis and that investors confidence is mesured in cash and in words.
You could have argued that the U.S economy was going to the moon in 2000 just by looking at the Nasdaq. Speculation is a herding instinct the fuel for it being liquidity. To argue that funds with so called long term positions somehow sanitizes their speculation is a dangerous assumption just look at the CDO's (a.k.a toxic waste) being bought by pension funds for their longest of long term speculation. Imho world markets will have peaked by September if not before.
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Here's one about the Bank of Thailands independence. Lot's of mentions of 1997 I note.
OPINION / MANAGING THE ECONOMY
The Bank of Thailand then and now
Recent changes have put the central bank back in the precarious position of
being subject to political pressures
By THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAK
A decade after its debacle in mismanaging the baht, from a century-long peg
to a forced flotation that brought on the infamous and contagious economic
crisis in 1997, the Bank of Thailand has come full circle. Legal efforts
after the 1997 crisis to free the central bank from political interference
by amending the Bank of Thailand Act have come to naught. Recent BoT
interest rate cuts in response to blatant government preferences to boost
growth are an indication that the central bank's macro-policy autonomy and
management has been reversed back to its pre-1997 position.
It is an ironic turn of events because the finance minister behind the
reversal is none other than Chalongphob Sussangkarn, a pro-market career
academic economist and a would-be technocrat who is in office during an
interim, unelected government under military rule. Mr Chalongphob, in
effect, is supposed to be a technocrat on the side of the BoT, but instead
he has practically put the central bank back into the hands of elected
politicians who will come to power after the election.
The impact of this move is far-reaching. Without policy-making autonomy at
the BoT, monetary policy and financial sector supervision and regulation
will be increasingly guided and controlled by the finance minister and
swayed by government and cabinet preferences and policy objectives.
Such an outcome will make monetary policy prone to political machinations
and politicisation, much as we saw prior to 1997, when democratisation in
the late 1980s empowered elected politicians to shunt aside a
five-decades-old technocracy, which comprised the National Economic and
Social Development Board, the Budget Bureau and the Ministry of Finance,
with the BoT as anchor.
The politicisation along with the penetration and capture of the technocracy
by vested interests represented by elected politicians led to the financial
sector mismanagement that culminated with the insolvency of the Bangkok Bank
of Commerce, the over-leveraged crises and shoddy credit culture in the
banking and non-bank sector, and the disastrous and demoralising defence of
the baht's peg.
Previously the pre-eminent gatekeeper of Thailand's sustained economic
growth, the BoT suddenly became the chief institutional culprit for all that
went wrong in 1997.
For the past 10 years, the central bank has tried to restore its lost
prestige and credibility by codifying its legal independence from the
finance ministry, similar to central banking models in developed economies
such as the United Kingdom's and New Zealand's. Because BoT governors in the
past were answerable to the finance minister, as long as the finance
ministry was headed by a like-minded technocrat as opposed to an elected
politician, the central bank governor's functional autonomy was assured,
even if legal independence was not stipulated.
Two governors over the nine years after the crisis, MR Chatumongol Sonakul
and MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, laid the groundwork for legal central bank
independence and inflation-targeting. Both had strong personalities and
considerable domestic stature who had been appointed from outside the BoT.
MR Pridiyathorn, in particular, made much headway in formalising central
bank independence after the military coup last September when he became
finance minister. But Mr Chalongphob, his successor, has just set the BoT
back a decade.
That Mr Chalongphob has reasserted control over the central bank governor is
attributable to several factors. First, he needs maximum command of
macro-policy at this time as the government of Gen Surayud Chulanont is
embattled owing partly to the economic slowdown and sagging consumer and
investor sentiments. Government pressure on Mr Chalongphob, and in turn on
BoT Governor Tarisa Watanagase, is too much to resist. Second, Ms Tarisa has
been a weak governor. More a run-of-the-mill bureaucrat than an effective,
staunch central banker who brooks no political interference, she has little
stature domestically, and is thus in no position to stand her ground as BoT
chief. Ms Tarisa also has received little support from Prime Minister
Surayud or other senior cabinet members.
Third, the BoT is still reeling from its controversial capital controls
imposed last December in a vain attempt to stem the baht's appreciation. As
a macro-policy institution, the BoT was hard-hit by its ineffectual exchange
rate management. Finally, Mr Chalongphob has argued his case on the grounds
of democratic accountability and the government's need to synchronise fiscal
and monetary policies. These are the two principal limitations of legal
central bank independence. But in countries with inflation-targeting and
independent governors, such drawbacks are more than compensated by stable
monetary policy and price stability free from political meddling.
Due to the public's lack of sophistication and knowledge on the subject and
to the myriad contentious issues and problems that have diverted attention
away from the BoT's legal setback, Mr Chalongphob's reversal of central bank
independence has incurred few criticisms. As an interim finance minister in
a supposedly technocratic cabinet, Mr Chalongphob has missed an opportunity
to fortify the BoT's institutional integrity. His argument on the BoT's
democratic accountability is dubious.
If Mr Chalongphob is willing to defer other legal measures, such as the
proposed land and inheritance taxes, to the next elected government, why
does he have to axe central bank independence at this time? His rollback of
central bank independence will further bureaucratise the BoT, which will
increasingly resemble just another bureaucratic agency rather than a
once-vaunted bastion of Thailand's famous but faded technocracy. It is
unlikely that future elected politicians will grant legal independence to
the central bank. When macroeconomic pressures gather force again, as they
did in the early 1980s and mid-1990s, the BoT will hardly be better equipped
to handle them.
The most salient positive outcome of the 1997 crisis is the baht's costly
flotation, which has shifted much of the tricky burden of currency
management from the BoT to the market. But financial sector management
remains susceptible to poor prudential supervision and regulation. When the
next bout of financial sector challenges takes place, the Surayud government
may well be seen as having bungled opportunities to set things right for
Thailand's macro-policy management.
The writer is director of the Institute of Security and International
Studies, in the faculty of political science at Chulalongkorn University.
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This will make the visa authorities over react yet again.
All the time and effort spent with Thais learning english,
He was a farang because he could speak english?
If he was on a tourist Visa could he be prosecuted for not having a work permit?
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Lol! The caption should read Wizard required, could interested parties please apply to the military government. Meanwhile outside the fishtank death star rolls ever closer to planet Creditbubble.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...24/cnbis124.xml
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Thai cop held over human trafficking
A Thai policeman has been detained for suspected human trafficking after two women were found hiding in the boot of his car at the Malaysian-Thai border at Bukit Kayu Hitam.
The 34-year-old policeman, who was in police uniform, was stopped by Malaysian police as he was driving through a green lane at the border checkpoint at 12.30pm yesterday.
Kedah police chief Deputy Comm Datuk Syed Ismail Syed Azizan said the two women, aged 35 and 45, were believed to be Myanmar nationals.
“They did not have proper travel documents,” he said.
DCP Syed Ismail said a pistol and 10 rounds of ammunition were also found inside the glove compartment of the car.
“We are investigating the case under the Arms Act (1960) and Immigration Act,” he said.
DCP Syed Ismail said it was probably the first case where a police officer in full uniform from a neighbouring country was caught for suspected human trafficking.
Source: The Malysian Star - 25 June 2007
Bless! That chocolate brown uniform and shiny badge obviously don't carry the same currency over the border and the Malays rightly concluded something nasty enough to reside in the false bottom of Pandora's box was hiding behind a cloak of legitimacy. P.S I guess the sentences for human trafficing are less than for drug smuggling.
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I'm not an economist or as smart as some of the posters who talk about hedge funds and capital inflows.
But I live in Thailand for 15 years, weathered the crisis of 97 and stuck it out. My wife was in the import and export business.
We moved to China in January, which is a big move for both of us -- she is Thai and now gets to have the experience of actuaslly herself being the foreigner.
General thoughts:
It seemed to me that before we left, and before Thaksin was deposed, that there was an enormous amount of "make work" going on funded by the government -- subways, highways, Night Safari and Floral deal in Chiang Mai, etc., etc. Thaksin was estentially buying votes by creating new projects that in turn created jobs -- and those workers will vote for him. I wonder if that was funded by government bonds and when those bonds are due.
Thailand is not competitive. Yes, China's big. But it isn't just the size, it's the attitude and work ethic. These folks are extremely serious and intelligent. One Chinese can do the work of (a least) three Thais -- and there are 1.3 billion of them. Vietnam also has a very strong wok ethic.
So at the grass roots level, Thailand is simply not productive. The folks are recalcitrant when you business with them and the government has always had exclusionary laws on foreign ownership and investment. The Chinese have recently relaxed their laws even more on foreign investment and ownership to meet agreements they made with the WTO.
You guys are talking (brilliantly in some cases) about a tight band of issues such capital flows and hedge funds, but at the end of the day, it's not all theory and banking games. It's quite simple to my simple mind -- the Thai day in the sun is over. Will there be a crash? I think so. Money is made by things produced and work and products made. Their low-grade products are simply not cheap enough anymore. And they never jumped to the next level of investment in research and development of their own innovations in true products that can be competitive on the world stage. Anyone can weave a basket. Their's just aren't cheap enough anymore.
If their rice production and auto production (Japanese-driven) continues to do well, their exports might keep them afloat for a while, but in the short-term I'm still concerned bout how Thaksin "paid" for those infrastructure projects to make growth look good. In the long term I just see no way that they can be competitive--especially when they are so arrogant about foreign ownership, expertise and investment.
They are simply out of their league.
Thailand should go back to calling itself Siam, which is an exotic place of beautiful women, food and countryside. Their greatest export is their women.
If I may say you have hit the nail on it's proverbial head. The last i's are being dotted and t's being crossed for the current economic cycle and when slowdown becomes recession Thailand stainds zero chance in a fair fight with either China or Vietnam. I think the powers that be here know this only too well and therefore try to stop the tide with a raft of protectionist and discriminatory measures.
Thailand has a future much like it's past as banana republicanism stifles any change. Whilst Vietnam joins the WTO and plans many English language call centers Thailand makes things ever harder for English teachers to teach legally here, even for the pittance they get. By 2012 I think Thailand will be welcoming back the flip-flop wearing beer swilling backpackers with open arms as they will be about the only foreign tourists still interested in coming.
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Thailand's economic recession
"The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry is confident that Thailand's economic recession can be handled by the government. "
He has gone and done it now - Thaigoon will be calling him an idiot and Highdiver will be after him!
its actually a very poor translation of what he said in thai. but we can expect that the farrangs living in singapore to understand that.
i noriced your lovely reply about the investors waiting for democracy.... you no doubt intended for that wonderfull democracy of Singapore as an example. Thailand should realy learn from singpaore how to be a free speach democracy.
Beg to differ, the Economist classified Singapore as 'partly free' and Thailand as 'not free' along with the superstitious lunatics across the border in Myanmar, and also with Laos and Cambodia. Still don't let substance get in the way of your banter.
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Thailand's economic recession
"The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry is confident that Thailand's economic recession can be handled by the government. "
He has gone and done it now - Thaigoon will be calling him an idiot and Highdiver will be after him!
Tis a bit of a conundrum really; How do you get out of something you deny you were ever in?
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The bonds are back ! Remember the first "cancelation" by the BOT of auctions on june 6 ?
It starts again.
Total 9 billions THB, for june 20 and 27, were canceled.
"The Finance Ministry announced yesterday that it was delaying plans to issue new government bonds due to rising money market yield volatility. "
And the best comment for the end (ready ? fasten your seat belt) :
"'The concern is that with yields spiking, a bond issue now would only lock in funding at high costs,'' one ministry official said."
Astonishing.
high cost = mumy, the other children are not nice with me, bouh !I'm wondering what they will say next month, when... the situation will be exactly the same. Another delay ? Ah ah ah.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/20Jun2007_biz41.php
And you willl notice the regular propaganda : the culprit is the "volatility" on the international market...
With the supply of government paper suffering a severe bout of indigestion and the Japanese getting cold feet about development aid I can see the mega projects which were supposed to cushion Thailand from the effects of a downturn drying up. P.S Higher bond yields will attract money eventually but at the expense of killing off the stock market.
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This nonsense isn't restricted to LOS. When Reagan was pres of the US, he and Nancy used her astrologer. Who knows why things are decided at the at the highest levels?
And of course in Myanmar the leaders moved their capital on the advice of a forune teller. Maybe the Thai Generals are planning to move from Bangkok and are currently consulting as to where.
The Thai Economy Is In Crisis
in Thailand News
Posted
After Palm's insistance a while back that there was 'no evidence' of hedge funds causing an asset bubble I wonder if he is ready to admit he was 100% wrong, or would that be out of character for him?