Steely Dan

Superstition is a part of the culture here. I recently drove my brother in law to a temple in the mountains to get our shop sign blessed. Monks were holding a ceremony there and it seemed that a whole sub-culture existed buying, selling and comparing amulets flags and other good luck charms. At the end of the ceremony may people bought flags or carried away bottles of blessed muddy water. Now I don't profess to know much about Buddhism, but the behaviour I observed was pure idolatry and superstition, sadly this seems to permeate the whole Country and rather than exhibiting hard work, thrift and self reliance many sadly would rather rely on a 'Rich without reasons' medallion or some crumbling relic of a farrang just because he comes with added wallet. Sad really.

Truth imitating fiction perhaps?

Actually Palm, the Dollar is actually rising against the Euro and pound of late, measuring it against the Baht is meaningless as the local currency is being manipulated. By the way you don't have to be either a pauper or a whore monger on a Tourist visa to see which way the wind is blowing and as for low unemployment and booming construction, well it was the same in the U.S during the so called roaring twenties, I suggest you consult a history book to see what happened next.

Measuring the Thai baht against the Dollar is meaningless? Oh please please please tell me you are joking. So it's being manipulated by who exactly? The Easter Bunny? Or the super-secret Carlton Zionist Hedge Fund Cookie Monster?

Comparing the US Great Depression economic circumstances to today's modern economic system beggars belief. Reminds me of an entertaining book I read recently about the coming collapse of the US economy and the 'tips' it contained for surviving it were to buy gold and stock up on lots of flashlights.

This thread spans over 41 pages now and everything from consumer confidence figures to government tax receipts to falling gem sales screams as loudly as it can that rocky times lie directly ahead. I could give you ample evidence of the growth and scope of hedge fund activity but I guess you'll not be shaken from sucking lollipops. Frankly it beggars belief that someone with supposed business interests here can be so complacent. Not long to wait now..

Wait for WHAT exactly?

A fall in the value of the baht? GREAT. When though exactly?

More quality staff becoming available to hire? GREAT. When though exactly?

Riots in the streets? When exactly?

A global meltdown? When exactly?

You guys bitch and whine constantly, yet others continue making money and vast profits by actually doing things.

The Thai export market is booming and growing. Our profits are huge from investing in Thailand (way way way way way beyond the 10% returns of the I-invest-in-bonds brigade).

Please give me some EVIDENCE of the growth and scope of hedge fund activity regarding Thai speculation. Real evidence, not something you heard in a beer bar. I've been in finance for 15 years and I've never read so much b******s buy a bunch of losers for a long time.

Meanwhile, I'll continue to make a fortune from Thai investments here, and continue to keep my assets in a mix of countries, including Thailand.

Do you whiners actually make anything here? Or own anything here? Or employ anyone here? Or have any international businesses to speak of?

You really do sound like a bunch of bitter dropouts on maybe $1000 a month income made from investing in Bonds? I'd get better economic advice on how to make money and run an export business talking to the local tuktuk drivers.

It must be so depressing for you having your Thai spending power squeezed to a pulp with the strong baht/weak dollar, and seeing the roads clogged with Thais driving Mercedes everywhere.

The Thai economy is no better or worse shape than the vast majority of similar countries, especially considering the current lousy political situation. Just because you'd like to see the country go down in flames, doesn't mean it is or will.

So keep squealing like little girls that life isn't being fair to you and your personal economic situation is so dire you have to try and pin in on the troubles of a country, but grown-ups meanwhile can and will continue to manage hugely profitable businesses here.

Palm, hit a raw nerve did we? it would seem that apart from being a rich successful philanthropic captain of industry you are also a clairvoyant in being able to ascertain that those who disagree with you are all either whoremongers on a tourist visa or eeking out an existance on some bonds. On the other hand you might be a pigeonholing bigot with tendencies to megalomania.

If everything in the garden Thai is so rosy why is business confidence at a 5 year low?

Why are government tax revenues missing target?

Why did Thai Military bank miss an interest payment on it's debts?

Why are the government trying to encourage more foreign investment?

Why are gem sales down 15%?

And regarding hedge funds your 15 years as a captain of industry surely taught you how to use google, try searching for growth in hedge funds and calls both from the US and Europe to better regulate this ticking time bomb.

When you ask? Well if history is any guide years ending in a 7 are not very good for Asia as a whole. Stock manias in China and Vietnam are out of control and the likes of Alan Greenspan is talking of 'dramatic falls' in these markets. Of course being a captain of industry you will no doubt be immune from any global fallout, and personally I wish you well with your lollipop factory and should the shit hit the fan for you I will try not to feel any shadenfreude though I could understand why others might.

I don't use drugs, and I certainly hope my daughters don't grow up to use drugs. That being said, the 'War on Drugs' has been a total failure and has created more misery than any drugs ever had. If heroin was legal it would be cheap and addicts would have no need to resort to petty theft and crime to support their habits, and the huge drug rings that have grown up to supply the demand would wither on the vine. You don't have to like drugs to think that current policies are stupid.

I aree. There is hardly anyone in the US now days with any thing resembling a functioning bran, that doesn't know the present policy of the war on drugs has not and will not work.

The anount of tax payer money spent each year has become such an embarrassment that the Bush administration chose to change the way expenses are tallied about two years ago. The annual expenditures now reflect minus thirty percent of actual costs. And it's still an outregeouse amount, my tax dollars at work

Mean wile down on the southern boarder foreign smugglers with less than FIVE HUNDRED pounds of weed are not prosecuted, wile the hard working regular weekend neighbor hood barbecue party animal gets seriouse life complications for half pound.

I accept that any time some one shows up and says we are from the government and we are here to help the results will stink. The question is WHEN? will the polices change not will they change.

Half a bran? Not All Bran?

Do your views also extend to heroin, meth and cocaine?

Why are you so fervent a supporter of legalising drug use - the problems caused to society are bad enough without sanctioning them. Are you suggesting that use of hard drugs should be legalised?

Well that's the view taken by the ecomonist. The full article is well worth reading, an extract can be found here;-

http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=3917

I don't use drugs, and I certainly hope my daughters don't grow up to use drugs. That being said, the 'War on Drugs' has been a total failure and has created more misery than any drugs ever had. If heroin was legal it would be cheap and addicts would have no need to resort to petty theft and crime to support their habits, and the huge drug rings that have grown up to supply the demand would wither on the vine. You don't have to like drugs to think that current policies are stupid.

Really?

I think you may find that drugs have caused infinitley more misery than Thaksins so called war on drugs.  Seems that you dont really have much of an understanding - especially if you have never experimented

with drugs.  Legalising heroin wouldnt help much since the naughty drugs today are ya ba, ice, crack, etc.

People using all these chemicals are a lot more dangerous the the sleepy smack heads of old.

The big players never seem to get caught because they are  - the big players - and well connected.

So as you say, current policies are fairly useless.  Governments know this, as prohibition always creates

more demand.   

Oh spare us the moralising sleight of hand. Try walking round a hospital ward seeing the misery caused by cancer to smokers sold legal tobacco. Or perhaps examine the road fatality statistic every Songkran and how many of those are caused by alcohol. Drug prohibition is both a fiscal and control issue of governments and the fact that dangerous tobacco is legal and relatively less harmful cannabis is not is just a sad accident of history.

So Mr CEO, you are concerned that investing in Thailand would be risky?

Well, I can reassure you that everything is fine, nothing to worry about, apart from being under military dictatorship, imminent threats of another Coup d'etat, death threats against former leaders, ruinous currency control measures and uncompetitive rate, crashing share prices, violence in the South, a bombing campaign in the capital within the last 6-months, downward growth YOY and prejections, disarray over whether you can actually own your investment if you are a foreigner...

CEO - what about the rumour that the capital (and new airport) will be under water in 10-years?

..oh, and finally, whatever way you work within our system we will retain 51% ownership!

"What you mean it's not an attractive option..??"

JR Texas: Same BS........another turn of an Everly Brothers tune........Dream, dream, dream, dream.......dream, dream, dream, dream.......

Seriously.....they continue to focus on MNCs (they only create a few jobs)......fine, but they are going to Vietnam........the smart thing to do would be to focus on small scale investment (the sector where most jobs are created) by foreigners.......open up the market to them (visa a major change in the visa/business rules) and real growth and job creation will occur.

But that will take a major shift in thinking and that requires the ability to think, so.........dream, dream, dream, dream........dream, dream, dream, dream.........

What, you mean actually let foreigners many married to and supporting Thai wives be allowed to do other work than teach English for a pittance? Allow foreigners to own anything other than a minority stake in a bar they can't even serve in? I'm afraid we will be well into a downturn by the time rules are finallly changed and when the world emerges from recession Vietnam will be the new kid on the block for foreign investment.

reality is delicious.......have a taste "defenders of the realm"

ECONOMY OUTLOOK

Business leaders say economic stimulus measures are failing

Lollipops all round I guess. Tick, tick, tick

Actually Palm, the Dollar is actually rising against the Euro and pound of late, measuring it against the Baht is meaningless as the local currency is being manipulated. By the way you don't have to be either a pauper or a whore monger on a Tourist visa to see which way the wind is blowing and as for low unemployment and booming construction, well it was the same in the U.S during the so called roaring twenties, I suggest you consult a history book to see what happened next.

Measuring the Thai baht against the Dollar is meaningless? Oh please please please tell me you are joking. So it's being manipulated by who exactly? The Easter Bunny? Or the super-secret Carlton Zionist Hedge Fund Cookie Monster?

Comparing the US Great Depression economic circumstances to today's modern economic system beggars belief. Reminds me of an entertaining book I read recently about the coming collapse of the US economy and the 'tips' it contained for surviving it were to buy gold and stock up on lots of flashlights.

This thread spans over 41 pages now and everything from consumer confidence figures to government tax receipts to falling gem sales screams as loudly as it can that rocky times lie directly ahead. I could give you ample evidence of the growth and scope of hedge fund activity but I guess you'll not be shaken from sucking lollipops. Frankly it beggars belief that someone with supposed business interests here can be so complacent. Not long to wait now..

Without wanting to start a debate about whether illegal drugs are worse than legal ones, I have to say that the only reason heroin causes so much misery is because it is illegal....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

&lt;deleted&gt; drug are you taking that makes you make a statement like that.

Actually pure heroin of a known dose can be taken by a user for decades without ruining their health. Illegal heroin contains all sorts of impurities and the strength is not known to the user, this is all down to the financial climate caused by prohibition. The Economist once published a most persuasive well researched case for the legalisation and regulation of all drugs, and they are hardly what you would call left wing radicals.

on the country level low unemployment, high foreign reserves, and low foreign debt levels.

The National Economic and Social Development Board predicts that total exports this year will be USD 144.1 billion, up 12.4 percent year-on-year due to the high demand for Thai exports in major destinations in the first quarter. The current account has a surplus of USD 8.5 billion, 3.6 percent of GDP, up from the previous forecast of USD 3.1 billion.

smile thefuture is great.

Yes; exports are booming and growing overall. Not only as covered in the papers, but in the overcrowded Export Dept.

We can't find many more good staff for love or money (well maybe more money). Those pesky Thais are all employed; no matter how hard we look; we can't find anyone not employed or willing to change jobs for a reasonable salary. (15k up for garment staff).

Maybe the economic woes of 'the weak dollar pushing up cost of buying a beer in a girly bar' is what the others are referring to? After all it must be terrible seeing your spending power in Thailand go down the pan by being locked into dollar-based Bonds.

Every year the taxi drivers (the world over) moan like old women; this year is the same; and the same falangs will increase their whining as their personal circumstances continue to deteriorate.

Actually Palm, the Dollar is actually rising against the Euro and pound of late, measuring it against the Baht is meaningless as the local currency is being manipulated. By the way you don't have to be either a pauper or a whore monger on a Tourist visa to see which way the wind is blowing and as for low unemployment and booming construction, well it was the same in the U.S during the so called roaring twenties, I suggest you consult a history book to see what happened next.

My wife actually initiated my investigating how she could get her money offshore. It is not as easy as one might imagine for ordinary Thais as the banks seem to be extremely uncooperative. As a UK citizen I wonder if I can transfer money out myself or will we have to resort to taking wads of Baht to Singapore?

I enjoy watching people debate a metaphor.

I await the sight of troops of similarly clad Karaoke girls marching in tight formation before squirting formic acid out of their &lt;deleted&gt; as they enter Cambodia on a foraging mission.

I'm of the oppinion that people come to Thailand for one of three reasons. 1) To lose themselves 2) To find themselves 3) To clean their butts. I've tried number 1 and having recently married have moved onto number 2. As for number 3, it's not currently in the pipeline.

Thai 'Condom King' wins Gates health award

A non-profit family-planning group founded by Thailand's "Condom King" has won the US$1 million ($1.39 million) Gates Award for Global Health, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has announced.

The Population and Community Development Association of Thailand (PDA) won the 2007 award in recognition of its work in family planning and Aids prevention, the foundation said.

"Mechai Viravaidya is widely known as Thailand's 'Condom King,' a testament to his extraordinary popularity as well as his personal leadership in family planning and HIV prevention," Dr. Nils Daulaire, president and chief executive officer of the Global Health Council, said in a statement.

"The world needs more leaders like Mechai, who are willing to tackle taboo subjects like sex and HIV/Aids directly in order to save lives."

As part of the message, Viravaidya's group runs the popular Cabbages and Condoms restaurant in central Bangkok, serving Thai cuisine in a leafy garden decked out with holiday lights.

The name refers to his goal of making condoms as common as the leafy vegetable.

The Gates Foundation, run by the multibillionaire founder of Microsoft and his wife, said the PDA was set up in 1974 to provide family planning education to women in rural Thailand.

It helped establish Thailand's national HIV prevention campaign in 1991, which led to a dramatic decline in new infections. Thailand's programme is perhaps best known for its liberal use of condoms.

"PDA has trained nearly 3000 health workers from 50 countries in HIV prevention, family planning, adolescent reproductive health, and other health issues," the Gates Foundation said.

Source: NZ Herald 30 May 2007

But is he blackisted from Vatican City?

Unemploymentrate 1,5 % (Febuary)

source: The Economist 19th-25th May page 101, table

Of course it is, when was the last time someone washed your car window when you were filling up with fuel back west?

Indeed, a farang being found dead and nud_e -feeds in to thoughts of debauchery. Did they find the man's clothes? ..there could have been forensic evidence of a struggle on the clothes (blood, hair, etc). The bloodied stick could be the woman's blood on it, if the man tried self-devense. I think the second most appalling aspict of this (after the murder itself), is allowing the woman to post bail. It's quite likely she'll flee. I hope Thai detectives use this scene to buck the generally-held belief that they're inept at investigating crime scenes.

Bail? Did the report actually state any bail was given? Maybe there was, if so how much and was the suspects passport retained? Of course the rose spectacles brigade would not have use even ask. Their answer is either 'if you don't like it here then leave', or 'many farang deserve what happens to them', or we somehow automatically presume the Thai guilty. Well it's not rocket science, let crimes be investigated properly and let justice be seem to be done or it is easy for a casual observer to equate the lacadaisical power centric way things work here to racism by omission.

but part of the problem is that in europe we had the opportunity to see (and especially learn from) what racism can bring and also from the mentality 'the stronger gets his way'. apparently in this part of the world they do not share the same thinking. it seems to me that thai society is based on the value of power and not so much of equality

That's it in a nutshell, what happened in the case of the recently murdered Israeli or the gang who attacked the Singaporians or countless other crimes swept under the carpet as they are not good for business? If someone set up a website called murderedinthailand.com and kept people updated as to what passes for justice here then maybe it would focus peoples minds when the tourist industry suffers.

Yet another case of whats yours is mine or you die. I hope the Police don't bungle the forensics and what's with releasing a murder suspect???? My condolences to the family of the deceased.

"The most depressing part of this whole story is that a certain responsible officer downplayed the issue, saying it was only a minor offence and simply a mistake anyone could have made."

What it boils down to is the role of the Police; they are not there to uphold the law but to maintain the status quo, namely a feudal society where a rich and powerful elite (sic) can act with total impunity. With this in mind 'Don't you know who my father is?' is the most relevent thing the mayor could have said. I expect the 'responsible officer' was reminded of his true remit before talking to the press.

Ahh, I just keep doing the spoonfeeding:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/220507_Business...y2007_biz47.php

FOREIGN TRADE

2007 export growth may be revised up

PHUSADEE ARUNMAS

In April alone, the import value of capital goods increased 4.9% compared with the same month last year to 2.85 billion baht, and the value of semi-finished goods jumped near 22% to 4.5 billion baht. During the first three months, imports of these two items were slow due to low confidence of both consumers and manufacturers.

Last month's bustling export performance fetched US$10.87 billion, an 18.5% rise year-on-year, which pushed up April's trade surplus to $255 million.

Total imports rose 8.9% year-on-year to $10.61 billion.

............

Sorry that my numbers were a bit off. My memory is not so good.

Why do they quote the numbers in $'s not in Baht? There is always an ambiguity otherwise as you don't know what exchange rates the figures were calculated at, that's of course except for Laos where for practical purposes their currency is the $.

Is it first of april again?

In Thailand every day is April 1st. I wonder if Thai airways are going to have a belly size measurer in the same way as they have a cabin bag size measurer, you could then put the fat ones in the hold and stop them spilling over into other people's seats.

the dooms day brigade just does not wish to learn.

Thailand is not seeking a short term speculative investment. it is seeking long term dedicated investors to add growth.

thailand is offering long term investors very good conditions through the BOI.

Thailand does not want small time investors that can not make it where they come from and are coming to Thailand to compete with the local business.

As for comapring Thaialands militery govermant with other countries in the region.

Sinagpore is a well known democracy. they realy give total freedom to citizens. and they allow people to speak out against the govermant.

Vietnam is yet another free country with no coruption and a stable democratic rule

Cambodia, burma, laos are in a great state too when it concerns "investors confidence"

and less we forget China. where forign investors are IP protected and the goverment is a free democracy.

Thailand is open for investment, however many speculators and short time investors are pissed of that the Thai goverment is not allowing them to invest as they see fit in thaialand.

the world is nearing the explosion of the liquidity bubble and the Thai goverment has to protect the Thais not the speculators who wish to rip the country off.

Your first argument smacks of 'In the kingdom of the blind the one eyed man is King', incidentally Singapore are still considered partly free which is not the case with Thailand.

Now there is a problem 'protecting' the Country from speculators, that is that great underlying distortions in the value of what would otherwise be freely traded occur. This has led for example to the huge trade surplus China has with the U.S. When things are allowed to float freely huge movement do occur, look at how Gold rocketed after 1977 when U.S citizens were allowed to own it for investment purposes again. I'm referring of course to the ridiculous split rate Baht which will cause massive instability once capital restrictions are ended, in the meantime the Pu Yai's of this world will be busily flying to Singapore to exchange sackfuls of Baht to dollars to then be changed back into Baht on their return to Thailand.

Can you still access the HRW website and amnesty international's for that matter without using an anonymous proxy?

"It is quite clear that internal conditions in Thailand continue to deteriorate while external conditions are excellent. To understand what is happening in Thailand one should compare the situation and policies of that country with their neighbours: Malaysia, Phillipines and Vietnam. The economy, stock markets and currencies are booming while Thailand stock market is the worst performer in the region. The external conditions are the same for the whole region. Thailand lagging far behind its neigbours due to policies of junta and their government."

Getting this through to the myopic is hard though - they have no understanding outside the Thai realm.

Some of them think its normal and acceptable to bribe your kids into school if they are too thick to get in themselves - thats bad enough but they think this happens everywhere else in the world - myopia rools

I have to take issue with your take on external conditions, in my oppinion there is a worldwide liquidity bubble primed to burst, of course as you state Thailand has it's own local problems, I just hope they can rediscover a Buddhist indifference to material wealth as I suspect we have some very rocky times ahead.

It's interesting that apart from Bkk which is an anomaly the North of Thailand gets highest IQ levels which get lower the further South you go.

Something I have noticed is that the further South you go in Thailand the more Austronesian the people appear. I have seen people in the South who would not look too out of place among Australian Aborigines or in Papua New Guinea. conversely the further North you go the more East Asiatic the people appear.

Food for thought maybe.

Maybe there is a genetic component to intelligence which is broadly based on race and not just on parental inteligence, of which the link is not in doubt. Studies are very hard to do due to environmental factors working on probably more than one gene, imho science is not yet at a level to prove this one way or another. The bell curve was a comparison of White and African Americans and it claimed to have found significant differences but other research papers contradict it's findings. Indeed some showed no corellation whatsoever between IQ and either skin colour or perceived degree of Negroid features. As I stated enviromental and cultural factors play a great part and so devising a rigourous methodology for testing IQ is difficult.

Returning to your observation, the North South divide could be due to other reasons than genetics, have you heard of the term 'Muscle beach' where people go to get a tan and show off their bodies? Well the whole leisure industry and hedonism related environment of beach resorts is not conducive to thinking (Oxford and Cambridge are about as land locked as you can get in the UK ). indeed imagine a 'brain beech' where the deckchair attendant asks you to do some calculus or algebra before giving you a chair. Environmental factors and social osmosis (water finding it's own level) could be equally responsible for the IQ differences.