candide

Not imams?

So the Republican whistleblower only wants to talk to a Republican committee.... BTW, the article sheds light on varipus aspects of this case and is worth reading.

Well, at least he's been able to unite voters against Trump in 2020.

In some polls Trump is leading and in others Biden is leading. They are actually more or less at the same level when polls are aggregated. https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls Having said that I don't see Scholz's statement as particularly relevant as he certainly won't influence any American voter.

What are you talking about? The Q1 2023 released by the ONS is not future either. It has happened. You are trying to get it both ways. Both are estimates of past activity. Actually all 2023 Q1 numbers released now in any country are estimates. Or are you confusing estimates of past activity with the forecast of the future state of an economy?

Talk about weaponisation of justice!

DekaBank uses the data from Ifo. Only the national statistics offices collect and aggregate the data. It's the same in other countries. Results published less than one or two months (or more) after the end of quarter are always estimates, as they have not received all the data. Ex "BERLIN: The German economy contracted in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the previous three months, thereby entering recession, data from the statistics office showed on Thursday. Gross domestic product fell by 0.3% for the quarter when adjusted for price and calendar effects, a second estimate showed. " https://m.timesofindia.com/business/international-business/german-economy-goes-into-recession-as-gdp-shrinks-by-0-3-in-q1/articleshow/100496817.cms You cannot have it both ways!

Who told you the Ifo number is not an an estimate?

It's exactly the same. The Q1 numbers from the German institute of statistics are not more reliable than the Q1 numbers from the ONS.

Exactly. It's only based on the most reliable data at this point of time, and may be revised later. BTW same as the estimate of negative growth in Q1 for Germany.

Ok. However, you where all cheering about the IMF forecasting 0.4% GDP growth for UK in 2023. So if the IMF forecast is moot for other countries, it's also moot for UK, right? In addition, if we cannot talk about future growth, we can still talk about past growth. The latest Q1 figures have been released not only for Germany, but also for UK. So on 12 May, the ONS claimed that: "The level of quarterly GDP in Quarter 1 2023 is now 0.5% below its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level (Quarter 4 2019)." https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2023

Ok. So let's say that given the fact that his associates have already been convicted for the same case, there is a significant probability he may be convicted too. Additionally, given the fact that he asked for a pardon, he was himself estimating that there was a significant probability he could have been convicted in the previous trial.

Ooops! Now corrected, thanks!

Read the report. Only Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan remain supportive of Russia.

Germany switched from 60% Russian gas dependence to zero. Few people thought they could make it, including Putin. Unfortunately there is a price to pay for that. Hats off to Germany!

Brexited UK has exceeded pre-pandemic level.... for immigration! ????

Priceless. A MAGA fan trying to defend someone who scammed MAGA fans! ???? The only reason he's not already convicted is that Trump pardoned him. His associates have already been convicted for the same case.

Your assessment is biased because you only make a comparison with the worst case. According to the same IMF you now seem to trust, UK 2023 growth forecast is below all other G7 countries except Germany. And the "failing" EU is also doing better than UK (Eurozone 0.8% growth forecast).

It depends how votes are geographically distributed.

So easy that you are not able to explain how previous ONS estimates could be more reliable than more recent ONS estimates....

An estimate of past growth is partly based on verified data. It's an estimate because the verified data set is not yet complete, so the other part is estimated. It's the latest estimate, which means there is no other more reliable estimate. The FT article your refer to was based on ONS estimates made one month before.

That's the correct scientific attitude. That's why It's important to get the latest estimate as it includes a higher share of confirmed data. The next estimate next month will be even more reliable.

Which is outdated (from 13 April) as the ONS has now more recent data (12 May). According to the ONS report on 12 May (quote): "The first quarterly estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) shows that the economy increased by 0.1% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 (Figure 1). This follows growth of 0.1% in the previous quarter. The level of quarterly GDP in Quarter 1 2023 is now 0.5% below its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level (Quarter 4 2019). https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2023

It's not good for any country with a significant trade with Germany, including UK. Germany is UK's second trade partner (measured by country). And if it affects the whole EU as you seem to rejoice about, it will also affect UK (EU=42% of UK exports).

Not much according to the latest figures from the ONS (12 May) Quote: "The first quarterly estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) shows that the economy increased by 0.1% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 (Figure 1). This follows growth of 0.1% in the previous quarter. The level of quarterly GDP in Quarter 1 2023 is now 0.5% below its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level (Quarter 4 2019). https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2023