jas007

For the OP: I've never ben a young backpacker in Thailand. In my early 20s I was in the US Army and the Vietnam war was still a thing. One thing I do remember vividly is talking to some guy who had been stationed in Thailand but had rotated back to the states. Listening to him talk, you'd think being stationed in Thailand was like dying and going to heaven. He must have had the time of his life. I can imagine. Anyway, fast forward a few decades and by the time I took my first trip to Thailand, I was in my late 40s and I wasn't a "two week millionaire." I was a "30 day millionaire." First stop: the JW Marriott on Sukhumvit Soi 2. I could appreciate the backpackers and those traveling on a budget, though. But back then, I didn't know enough about the country to feel comfortable being anything other than a tourist on vacation. Has Thailand changed over the years? Undoubtedly. But there's always somewhere, right? Maybe some of the old tourist areas have now transformed and aren't what they used to be. That's life. But I'm sure there are areas of Thailand that haven't changed much in decades. All you have to do is explore. Do some research. You can't do much about the attitude of Thai officials at immigration. They have rules to follow. But why not get a retirement visa and stay in Thailand? Life would be much simpler. And if for any reason you still think Thailand is no longer for you, maybe try another country. Cambodia? Or maybe somewhere outside of SE. Asia entirely.

I'm sure they're following their conscience. Rightly or wrongly, they apparently thought that certain of their duties were unconstitutional.

Unlawful is one thing. Supporting the boss's position is something else again. As a practical matter, you support the administration's positions. In any event, that oath isn't just for members of the President's cabinet. Go join the US Army and you'll take the same oath.

The man is doing his job, just like every Cabinet member. You join the team and it's your job to support the President's agenda. Whether he actually believes it all is another matter. You'd be hard pressed to find any individual in government who doesn't have private beliefs that differ from their public posture.

This kind nonsense never ceases to amaze me. Where do these idiots come from? Where were they raised? Can you really just write it off to being drunk? I don't think so.

Why even spend time worrying about it? Does it matter?

The Central Banks of the world poured trillions into the world economy during QE, primarily the US Fed. Everyone should know that by now. A lonely position? LOL. Maybe you're just being facetious? And the dollar is sinking in value because of inflation. Increase the money supply and that's the very definition of inflation. We won't get into what measure of money supply. There are several. As for other currencies rising in relation to the dollar? A temporary phenomena, for sure, but not all currencies act the same. At this point, it's as much as a macroeconomic/political reaction to Trump and his on again off again tariffs. That and his stated goal of a cheaper dollar and lower interest rates which can be accomplished when the Fed buys bonds to prevent a credit freeze. He's not making any secret of what he wants to do. In any event, don't think for a minute that the US Fed is alone in its depreciation of the currency. That's the name of the game all over the world. Inflation. The central banks buy bonds, thereby pumping "money" into the system, and that money has to be repaid with interest. Where does that extra money come from? More borrowing of course. It's a real racket. Create money out of thin air and then expect to be paid back, with interest. Mathematically, the problem compounds over time and eventually there's a problem. So, at present, the US and China are playing a game of chicken. Who blinks first? Can China cause a credit freeze in the bond market that the Fed can't handle, or can the US outlast the Chinese when their factories are closing and their workers are losing their jobs and their homes? What you're going to find out is that China blinks first. They're already on the verge of collapse. Without the US consumer, they're dead in the water.

I think you need to look at your chart again. That's not exactly what happened. Initially, interest rates remained low during the initial phase of that particular QE, as the Fed purchased bonds and tweaked the low end of the yield curve. In addition, they promised to maintain lower rates. But in the early part of 2022, inflation started to be a problem and they changed course. Today, interest rates are higher and they have some room to lower rates, but because of a weakening US dollar, that may be problematic for them. More and more dollars will be required to purchase bonds, and the increasing federal debt will further erode investor confidence. In other words, the US is in an inflationary environment. There's a tipping point when lowering rates it's no longer the smart thing to do. It's always a fluid situation, and the macroeconomic climate is now more important than ever.. In terms of Central Bank fiat currencies, it's a race to the bottom. Don't forget, this all occurs as Trump is trying to force China's hand. It's a matter of who blinks first, and once the China problem is solved for Trump, then the dollar dominance will reassert itself.

Lutnick isn't stupid. And he knows exactly what's he's doing. Look up his background. Presently, he's playing the part as a member of Trump's cabinet, espousing Trump's agenda. Some people think he may have ulterior motives, though. In any event, I'll leave that issue alone. But whatever you do, do not think that the man is an idiot.

It's not Trump's supporters, it's the bond market and the banking system that is ultimately calling the shots. And the bond market is already on life support . The final outome is still uncertain.

I once had a house that had homeowner's insurance. A typical policy. But for a fee, I could add an earthquake rider to the policy. The agent tried to tell me I was nuts, but the cost was no big deal and I felt better having the coverage.

If I were you, I'd take a look at one of the websites dedicated to the discussion of teaching English abroad. Off the top of my head, I forget their names, but there are several of them, and they have sections devoted to each country. I'm sure people there will be able to give you good information. As I understand it, the ideal candidate will be a native English speaker, have a Bachelors degree , have a TEOFL certificate, and, the younger the person, the better. If you're older, you might have trouble finding a job.

I assume you mean the official QE implemented during COVID? I'm not sure where your chart ends, but as you can see, typically, QE lowers interest rates and increases bond prices. Of course, we won't get into the fact that the Fed has been supporting the bond market for years, in one way or another. The anomaly is the result of the massive QE that occurred during the last QE, as much of that money went into the economy and was not contained within the banking system. And for that reason, the Fed saw inflation, was worried about inflation, and began playing games with the short end of the yield curve until they began QT, again, to drain liquidity from the system and fight what they saw as an inflationary threat. There are other reasons why the bond market reacted this way, but that's beyond the scope here. As for Trump and the US debt issue? I think everyone is aware of the fact that the debt ceiling is probably not as issue for a number of months, and may well be increased by congress. Everyone should also know that Trump wants this leeway for "maneuvering room" as the supposed income from the tariffs kicks in. Is the US debt a major problem? Absolutely. But the bigger problem is what happens if Trump can't find a solution to the ongoing problem of deficit spending. It's unsustainable. Everyone should also know that. The overriding issue is to save the USA. Will Trump succeed? Let's hope. People hoping for a different outcome have no idea what might hit them if that happens.

Supposedly, the deal Trump wants to cut with Putin would be for the US to mine on both the Russian and the Ukrainian side, with Russia as a partner and the US supplying military protection. That may still happen, as the negotiations are ongoing and they get Zelensky out of the way. Putin. isn't much willing to got negotiate, though, or so it seems. Anyway, if Trump normalizes relations with Russia and Putin gets a promise of no NATO in Ukraine, maybe it will happen. Trump wants the war to end and I think Putin does as well.

I'm sure I've said this before, but even if the 15% direct export to the US number is correct, actual Chinese manufacturing capacity is enormously dependent on the US consumer by way of the international supply chain. For example: China exports a product to Mexico. In Mexico, that product is added to a product destined for the USA to satisfy US consumer demand. And it's not just Mexico. China ships products all over the world. And, in turn, many of those same products are manufactured for the US consumer. Bottom line: To shut down the USA and its consumer is a BAD IDEA.

I think the jury is still out on this. China is in bad shape, despite what the propaganda machine wants everyone to believe. Moreover, China does not control the world's reserve currency our the international financial system and is in no position to do so anytime soon. On the other hand, the Fed has Trump's back and an infinite supply of money with which to "buy it all." They can keep buying bonds until they want to stop. So, what's the catch? The bond market itself. The possibility of a "credit freeze." Maybe there's a point at which the Fed's purchase of bonds would be counterproductive. I'm sure there is. At the current dollar level, to buy all the outstanding US bonds would cost over 40 Trillion dollars. But that price would go up as the dollar collapses. The question then becomes who will blink first. China, or the USA? My guess: China. Not because the international supply chains cannot be easily untangled, but because China is already in veery deep trouble and might not be able to outlast the US Fed. Its currency is already collapsing and is at its lowest level in more than 20 years. Time will tell, but as I've said before, if China starts a war, all bets are off.

One more thing, and before I forget: Whoever your friend is and whatever currency he wants to change to, be sure to ask him how and where the transaction was accomplished. And if your friend looks into the facts, he'll find that almost 90% of the world's international currency transactions use the US dollar as a "delivery vehicle." Removing the US dollar from the process would be next to impossible in today's world. Is it possible to replace the US Dollar? Sure. But the process would take decades.

I don't disagree with you. The vision of a world of abundance where three's more than enough for everyone sounds like a fantasy. My only point was that that's what some of the AI people seem to think will result when robots do all the work in an environment that's directed by AI. There are a number of practical problems standing in the way, I think. First, there's the energy question. Giant AI complexes will require enormous amounts of electricity. That capacity currently doesn't exist. They want to perhaps run it all with nuclear energy. Perhaps turn on some of the idled nuclear power plants or build new ones. Can they manage that? Second, I wonder about an overpopulation problem. If humans no longer have to work, might they not end up creating too many new babies? How will they feed all those people? Or will some new technology exist that will be able to create food out of thin air? In short, it sounds like a fantasy to me, but I have an open mind.

At the rate they move money around these days, it's hard to call many of them "investors." They may be buying and selling long bonds, but those transactions can be handled in an instant and reversed in an instant. So they're just playing games, trying to stay ahead of the curve.

Since when did grades start to make any difference in the real world? You go to school, do what you have to do to graduate, and go find a job. Once you find one, the rest is up to you. Can you perform? How well? It's easy enough to think of billionaires who dropped out of school, only to create some of the greater businesses in the world.

Incredible, isn't it? Buying the debt of two countries that are even more screwed up, financially, than the USA. I guess they may be thinking short term. Push a few buttons, sell a few US Treasuries, and buy some Japanese or German bonds. And if things improve, reverse the process with a few more keystrokes. Anyway, none of that solves the issue of what currency would replace the US Dollar.

That may be, but we can only hope something works. Maybe not for me, and maybe not for you, depending on how old you are, but for future generations, I'm sure they would appreciated living in a civilized society.

My apologies if all you got from my post was that is was a "ad hominem" putdown. I was trying to inform you of a few simple facts. And I fully agree trust in the US debt market is eroding. The country is in unchartered markets. And yes, the USA is abusing its "exorbitant privilege." It's very sad, but it's happening. Gold is real money, for all practical purposes. It has been for thousands of years. Swiss Francs? It's a fiat currency, only, and has been since the year 2000. The Swiss Central bank is playing the same fiat currency game as all the other central banks. As for everyone using gold for money? Possible, but bankers can't be trusted to store it, and if people started using just gold coins for transactions along with silver coins for the peasants, we'd be back in the dark ages. And if governments now tried to revalue the price of gold to reflect the current "money" in circulation and the current value of all the debt based paper assets on the books, the value of each ounce of gold would be astronomical. Sounds like a fun plan so long as you are willing to do away with banks, paper money, ATM machines, international wire transfers, credit cards, and so on. Carry around your money in a little leather pouch and hope no one robs you. As for the Chinese middle class? Currently losing their jobs, unable to sell their overpriced real estate, watching the value of their banking deposits evaporate, and living on borrowed time. And if you think all that is Trump Kool Aid, fine. Think what you want, but don't be surprised when, five or ten years from now, the world is still using the US Dollar as its reserve currency. All bets are off if there's WWIII. The system will shut down and you'll be scrounging around looking for food and clean water, unless you happen to live on a working farm.

Again, people keep worrying about what should be. That's not the issue, at least in my mind. The issue is what's next and how to navigate the nonsense.

First of all, you seem to know nothing abut international financial markets and the depth of liquidity required for a nation to maintain the world reserve currency. China does not now, and will not have in our lifetimes, that kind of liquidity and a banking system that operates within a framework of international law. For all practical purposes, China's financial markets are closed to the rest of the world, unless, or course, it suits them otherwise. Perhaps a trillion dollars change hands on a daily basis in the Western banking system, much of it in the USA. There's only one place that can happen: the USA. No where else. BRICS and the proposed BRICS system is more or less a pipe dream, at this point. As for Trump leading the US into financial catastrophe? Well, if he keeps it up, people may begin to question the stability of the dollar and the US markets. I agree. But what then? Where will they go with their "money"? Nowhere even remotely feasible at present. When time, in 1971, Secretary of the Treasury John Connolly, was asked about the dollar and its role in international transactions. He said "the dollar is our currency, but it's your problem." He knew then and it's still true today. There is no substitute. Maybe in the future, but not now.