jas007

Those look like pretty nice sandals. I'll have to look them up. I often wonder how often people get their shoes or sandals stolen when they're sitting outside an establishment, but then again, most people seem to wear such cheap junk that no one would want to steal them anyway. I'm guilty of paying too much for shoes and sandals, I guess, so I'd worry.

Aren't all those issue still in litigation? Trump's attorney general says they will follow the law, so when the matters are finally settled, I expect that's what they'll do. Follow the law. Of course the courts have no power to enforce the rulings, but I don't see Trump ignoring the Supreme Court, yet. Could it happen? Sure. It might also be a really stupid thing to do, because then Congress would have an excuse to step in and no one knows how that could go. The margins are already close, and it could all end up badly for Trump.

He can try, but I'm not so sure that would fly, legally. The Fed is a private/public institution created by Congress in 1913. It is owned by its member banks, but the are restrictions on that ownership. The Fed chairman is appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate and can only be removed for "cause." In any event, Trump's authority to "fire" Powell is not clear. My guess is that Trump will not be allowed to fire Powell, absent a finding of cause. Otherwise, what's the purpose of an independent Fed? If Trump can fire Powell just because he wants to, then a precedent will be established. Any President will always be able to fire any Fed chairman. Fed independence would become just a joke. O f course, in a perfect world, there would be no Fed and the market would set rates. That probably won't happen anytime soon, though.

You misunderstand. I don't care whether you listen to me or not. I'm just stating my opinion. All I ask is that, rather than argue and ask for "sources," just sit back and wait a month or so, and see if I'm not right. For your purposes, my source is me.

But for the advent of the Central Bank Digital Currency, he could be right, although I'm not sure about the 50 year duration. It could be more like 10. The dollar is in use around the world and that can't stop overnight. For example, thousands of oblong term financing agreements are in place that must be settled in US dollars. And there are some countries that will be reluctant to move away from the dollar, at least immediately. Anyway, the Trump team seems to be planning on a CBDC sometime soon, so that could change everything. How long until that happens? Will it be implemented in phases? Who knows?

So your argument is that, strictly as a function of global dollar reserves, the US dollar gradually outpaced the pound following WWI until it achieved dominance in the early 60s Fine. The decline of the pound was a bit complicated for various reasons, but the Bretton Woods agreement itself did establish the system that continued until Nixon controlled the gold window in 1971. That was my point.

But it did. What fantasy world do you live in? The Bretton Woods agreement in 1944 established the US dollar as the world reserve currency, and, between nations, the dollar was freely convertible into gold. But the US mindset was for more, more, more. And so next on the agenda was the Korean War and then the Vietnam war. Big money spent that began to flood the world with dollars. Other nations, but France under de Gaulle in particular, became uncomfortable with their US dollar holdings and began converting those dollars into gold. The US gold reserves were being drained. Nixon could read the writing on the wall, and in 1971 closed the gold window, effectively defaulting on the Bretton Woods agreement and establishing the era of fiat currencies. Around the same time, Kissinger made an agreement with the Saudis that they would buy and hold US Treasury bonds and price oil only in dollars in return for military protection, and the rest is history. That system is now falling apart, but the process will take a number of years, as dollars are in use around the world for various purposes.

What you're discussing is the Chinese mindset. A long term perspective. Even if we assume some or all what you say is true, the real and immediate issues facing China may overwhelm that mindset, at least over the short term. And don't forget, China has a recent history of not keeping its promises about international trade. What have they done? They say yes to some deal, and then they don't do much. Business as usual, more or less. Whether it's deals they made with Trump during his first term, or the agreement they made when joining the WTO, China agrees to one thing, and then often does another. Or, they comply, but only a little. I could go on with other examples, but you get the picture. What happens next? Don't forget the concept of "face" in Asia. You might be told "yes," and then nothing happens. It happens every day, even with trade agreements. Short term internal politics may well force China into making a deal with Trump. That has happened before. How Trump prevents the same or similar outcome? That's why Trump is focused on the overall balance of trade and not simply tariff levels on different categories. I'm not sure what will happen next, exactly, but look for a deal sometime soon, even if it's illusory.

It will get worse, whether or not Trump gets his tax reductions. The tax reductions will add to the problem, for sure, but the debt will spiral put of control in any event. As the dollar weakens and the borrowing increases, bond yields will rise along with interest owned on the national debt. So the interest burden will increase the debt at an even faster pace. At a point, additional borrowing becomes less and less beneficial, meaning they have to borrow even more to keep up. The system eventually spirals out of control. And to add insult to injury, much of the nation's debt has been financed short term, recently. Rather than trying using long bonds, they've been financing the deficit with shorter term debt. Debt that is more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. A lot of that debt will have to be refinanced sometime soon, and, if present trends continue, at even higher rates. Long story short: the present system cannot work much longer without some big changes.

That about sums it up. It never ceases to amaze me how many people just gobble up the mainstream propaganda and run with it. Some of it is so silly, I wonder how they can really believe it.

Hardly. Real people in the right places. Like I said, there's no need to argue. Just sit back and watch. Within a month, it'll be over.

I thought the whole point of 800 numbers was that they're free to call. Can't you just make a call from your Thai phone? And some banks seem to have special numbers you can call when you're outside the country.

Aa I've said, this thing with China will be over soon. Probably within a month. At this point, why don't you sit back, watch, and see if I'm not right. I have pretty good sources.

Because China is much much weaker than the propaganda machine would have everyone believe. There will be a deal soon.. China cannot outlast Trump, and they know it. Just watch and see what happens.

Under the current system, that's what has to happen, or the system collapses. Money is loaned into existence and the expectation is that the bonds will pay interest, and that interest can come from only one place: more borrowing, more money printing. And then there's the issue of the world reserve currency. The US can't maintain the dollar as the world reserve currency without accepting more and more debt, and deficit and balance of trade problems. And so those "problems" are always there. It's just a matter of degree. In normal times, new money usually stays in the banking system and may be used for banks to bolster their reserves.. Credit markets also create money, but usually, there's some mechanism at work to limit that from becoming excessive. In short, it was a system designed to destroy the currency and transfer wealth to the banks,, a scam that has been ongoing since 1913, when the Fed was created.

Not only that, but he seems to think that the current inflation in the US is because of Trump and his policies, when the destruction of the dollar's value dates back decades and decades. Today's consumer inflation in the USA is largely the result of huge inflows of cash into the economy during COVID and, following that, that wall of cash meeting shortages of many items because of supply chain constraints. So, pent up demand, lots of cash, and shortages of just about everything all created the high inflation. In any event, Trump is now calling for lower interest rates and a lower dollar, both of which would result in even more inflation, but all that is yet to come. Of course, there has been some blowback about the tariffs and that has weakened the dollar somewhat, but that's temporary and probably not structural, long term.

Sorry. I just assumed we were discussing actual wars. If China, Harvard, and the Supreme Court are the issues, I think all of those are up in the air, although I strongly suspect that China will back down and make an agreement with Trump on the tariffs. I haven't researched the Harvard matter or the issues involved, but if Trump is trying to treat Harvard any differently than other schools enrolling foreign students and so on, he may have a hard time with the Supreme Court, which is already questionable on some issues. In other cases, the Supreme Court may be more reluctant to wade into what might be a political question.

For all practical purposes, the Ukraine/Russia war is over, at least for the USA. Either Zelenskyy signs on to Trump's proposed deal or the USA walks away. And in any event, it's just a matter of time before Putin and Trump make an agreement. So this war isn't one that Trump will have to fight. The other two wars? Neither are "winnable" by the USA. I'm not sure Trump knows that, but he's certainly been told.

The Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 established the US dollar as the world reserve currency. By way of this agreement, the dollar was convertible into gold and was valued at $35 an ounce. By 1971, Nixon closed the gold window as the US gold reserves were being drained, and the era of fiat currency began. To this day, the dollar has remained the global reserve currency, although there is now movement towards a multipolar world.

Somehow, I see this story as a non-event. Currencies fluctuate. Whatever is going on now could easily go the other way at the drop of a hat. On my first trip to Thailand in 2000, I think I was getting a little over 38. In 2007? it dropped briefly below 30. A few years ago, in 2022, it briefly hit 38 again. Anyway, nothing in between 30 and 38 would surprise me.

Just out of curiosity, what makes an Aussie Burger and Aussie Burger? Just the fact that Australian beef is used? I'm in a condo and don't haver any kind of outdoor grilling facilities, so I don't make a lot of burgers. I do, however, sometimes buy some pre-made burgers from Tops Food Hall grocery store at Central Festival. Sloans has some good ones and there are a few other brands that are tasty. I sometimes have one of those burger patties for breakfast along with some eggs, instead of a rib-eye steak. In the US, I could go outside and make a good burger anytime I wanted. Ground chuck was good, with about 80% meat, 20% fat. Either on a charcoal grill or gas grill, they usually turned out good. And one time I tried some of this seasoning. Pretty good.

My guess is that not many negligence lawsuits succeed in Thailand over wet floors and the like. Have you ever seen the city sidewalks? The rule seems to be that you should watch where you're walking. If you trip over a hole or a piece or rebar sticking out of the ground, you should have been paying attention.

Why does the US need rare earths instantly? Why not just wait for China to fold? It might not take that long, and the rare earths couldn't be produced instantly, in any event. The situation in China isn't getting any better, and if they think they can outlast Trump, they should probably think again. Trump isn't about to admit defeat at this early stage. His reason for existence at this point is to "Make America Great Again." He's the President and he has a mandate, despite what the propaganda outlets want the world to think.

I'm not "chickening out" of anything. The guys either doesn't want to listen, can't comprehend, or is just trying to annoy me. Maybe all three. He doesn't understand market dynamics. For example, imagine everyone watched, in slow motion, as a bowling ball was dropped out of a skyscraper window and plunged down 50 stories until it smashed some guy in the head, splattering his brains all over the sidewalk. Mr. Placeholder wants to argue that "gravity" caused the guy's brain to be splattered all over the sidewalk. Well, gee. In my world, that goes without saying. We don't have to dig up Issac Newton to argue about the law of universal gravitation. So if I've been less than clear on occasion, it's because I skip over the obvious to address the real issues. Who threw the bowling ball out the window? Why did he throw the bowling ball out the window? Is he going to throw any more? Will he be caught? When? Will people avoid that sidewalk for at least a while? How will foot traffic on the other side of the street be affected? Anyone wanting to understand the complexities the situation should probably consider moving beyond the fact that "gravity" caused the guy's death.

I don't think you understood a word I've written. As I've said numerous times, the US dollar does not exist in a vacuum. Try to wrap your head around that. Let's assume the market's knee-jerk reaction to Trump's tariffs caused the dollar to drop. Fine, I have no problem with that, but you must also address the question of WHY. Why would the dollar drop? Unless you ask that question, you might as well not even think about the markets or finance. You're in over your head. No one factor controls. Everyone except you seems to know that. It's fundamental. So fundamental it goes without saying in financial and banking circles. Nonetheless, it's safe to assume that the dollar drop was a result of capital outflow from the US to other areas of the world, to other assets. Gold, foreign stocks, foreign bonds, foreign real estate, and so on. And why would that happen? Fear that Trump's tariffs would cause US inflation to a point of big trouble. More inflation, more inflation. Pretty soon the bond market cracks, credit freezes up, and the Fed has no choice but to step in, buy bonds, and lower rates. More money printing, in other words. So it's that fear that caused a drop in the dollar as much as anything. And don't forget, the bond market is already in big trouble and Trump has made no secret of the act that he wants lower interest rates. Also, you have to consider geopolitical and macroeconomic factors. The rest of the world is intractably connected to both the system of Western central banks, the US economy, and the word reserve currency, the US dollar. So, while there may have been a short term knee-jerk reaction that sent the dollar lower, the system will slowly adjust to achieve some sort of equilibrium. Or at least that will be the direction. Perhaps movement away from US hegemony, but that kind of move doesn't happen overnight. And never forget, every central bank in the world is now playing the same game, with a fiat currency. Whether it's the Yen, the Euro, the Pound, or the Chinese Yuan, they all play the same game. Even the Russian Ruble will be affected, as Putin recently admitted. Borrow and spend. If you don't do that, it's eventually game over. So it's a "race to the bottom" of the currency markets. Cheaper currencies benefit corporations in the home country, which can give them a competitive advantage. And who doesn't want a competitive advantage? How does it all play out, long term? That's the question you should be asking, and the answer to that question is more complex than you seem to think. Everything is in play at once and everything matters.