jas007

If you step back and look at the bigger picture, you can't argue the fact that the stock market is up hugely over the past decade or so. Much of that was because of money flowing into the US markets from abroad, and from all the money the Fed poured into the banking system during that same period, some of which made its way into the stock and bond markets. As a result, stock are massively overvalued and will at some point revert to a more normal level consistent with all the usual factors: Interest rates, investments from abroad, geopolitical considerations, and so on. A correction would be entirely normal and should be expected. And so far, that's what we've seen. A correction. Can things deteriorate from here? Absolutely, but even if stocks were cut in half, they would still be up massively over the last decade or so. It's all normal market behavior and can hardly be blamed entirely on Trump. Unless some of you think current valuations are justified? Maybe they are, considering there Fed put and the massive inflation and corresponding interest rate cuts we'll be seeing soon. These levels may someday seem cheap. Of course, some day a Big Mac may cost $299.95 s the dollar is destroyed.

DHL is a private company and can do whatever it wants. My guess is that this is more of a political temper tantrum than anything else. They're based in Germany, right? What about FedEx? UPS? The postal service? Unless all modes of shipment to the USA are cancelled, what's the bug deal? And most people don't have orders that big, in any event.

I don't think anyone will argue with the fact that, over the years, tax cuts have contributed to the current debt problem. After all, Reagan made no secret of what he wanted to do when he initially took office. He got some questionable advice, perhaps, but the initial intention was to "starve the beast." Lower taxes so much that congress would have no choice but to cut spending. You can ask David Stockman all about that. After a short period, Reagan saw that his plan wasn't working as advertised, and he reversed course, but the tax cuts were politically popular and, over the years, multiple presidents have campaigned on a promise to cut taxes. The voters love it. To his credit, George H.W. Bush finally agreed to raise taxes in a compromise budget deal, despite campaigning on a "no new taxes" platform. And for agreeing to tax increases, he was politically punished and lost his reelection bid, in part, because of the tax increases. In any event, the point you seem to forget is that, over the years, the Fed has enabled all this nonsense. The government spends much more money than it takes in, much of that money flows into Walls Street and the banking system, even more money is created by way of the banking system, and it's the top 1% of the people who ultimately profit. And this is possible for one reason and one reason only: the US Federal Reserve and their penchant for bailing out Wall Street and the banks every time there's trouble. Those people can't lose. When they win, they keep all the money. When they lose, the Fed rides to the rescue, bails them out, and the rest of America pays the price with higher inflation, particularly the middle class. Take away the Fed and their games and none of this would have been possible.

Too much bickering here about who did what and when. Anyone around back in 1987 must surely remember when Greenspan bailed out Wall Street following the crash. Over time, the "Greenspan Put" became a foregone conclusion and is now the "Fed Put." After the 1987 bailout, next came a bailout of Long Term Capital Management in 1998 after a bunch of supposed bond market "geniuses" couldn't even manage a bond portfolio without failing to account for multiple extraneous forces. That's a long story. Fast forward to the worry about the year 2000 computer meltdown and, again, the Fed flooded the world with money, just in case. All that money printing and then the dot.com crash/. Once again, the Fed lowered rates. Fast forward to the Great financial crisis of 2008. Another massive Fed bailout. Anyone notice a pattern here? The Fed Put. Whether the Fed admits if or not, they often have no choice. Rescue the markets or you have a credit freeze, and nobody wants that. So, since at least 1987, The Feds loose money combined with negative nominal interest rates have taken their toll. Today? Once again, the bond market is on life support and many of the traditional Fed backstops have been weakened. Bank reserves are probably near zero. The reverse repo facility is about gone. And, while the Fed has been reducing their balance sheet, it's still much higher than the 800 billion that was on it in 2000. How high can they go before they really screw things up? So, what's next? Another Fed Put, no doubt, whether Jerome Powell likes it or not. Perhaps there's an alternative? A massive depression with millions out of work. A collapse of many banks under the weight of non-performing real estate loans, especially commercial loans. Political chaos in the USA. It's a mess. Staglation like the late 70s, but with no easy fix.

One day I was wondering how far AI has advanced and whether it has advanced to the point where you could somehow turn yourself into cartoon character to narrate whatever crazy kinds of videos you want to make. So real shots out and about, overlayed with a cartoon character. Maybe it's possible, maybe it's not. I see some people mow make videos using a visual person entirely, and that seems to work for them, but I'm thinking of something that mixes fantasy and reality. For all I know, that's entirely possible, altho I haven't seen anything like that in a Youtube video. In the movie world, there was "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" years ago.

I'm a bit behind on my movie watching, and I own movies I haven't even watched yet. Dune II, some of the more recent Yellowstone spinoffs, Westworld, and more. A while back, I watched the Mosquito Coast series. I'm also watching Severance, Slow Horses, and a few others.

I think I've seen reports on here somewhere about a service that some company has. Something maybe you can purchase on EBay? Anyway, they have a way to facilitate the acquiring of a US phone number that will work of Google Voice. I forget the particulars.

I'm not thinking, I guess. As for the guy in El Salvador? He's never coming home. The president of El Salvador has said as much. They won't release him. So, despite a US court order, he's probably there to stay, and I can't see Trump sending in the 82nd Airborne to break him out.

I think you have to originally open it up in the USA with a phone assigned to a USA carrier. Once you do that, you're good to go.

I pay for a bundle of services, one of which is Apple TV+. It's called Apple One, and it's a package deal that includes Apple Music, Apple TV+. Games, and 20GB of iCloud storage. I'm lazy and have better things to do than to fool around trying to find free movies. It was easy enough to sign up and I thought the cost was reasonable. No big deal.

Can you post me to a settlement agreement on the AP case? From what I see, the case is ongoing and the potential for further litigation remains. I don't see a "settlement" anywhere. As for the guy in prison in Guatemala? The people holding hime there are acting in a way that suggests they have no intention of releasing him. He faces charges outside the USA and that case is ongoing. Keep in mind, Trump cannot simply step in and order his release. In short, I think you're twisting the facts a bit.

UI'm in the middle of watching some science fiction movie on Apple TV called "The Gorge." Usually, Apple does pretty good with science fiction stuff. Anyway, so far the movie is OK. I'd give it a 7/10, maybe a bit higher. I won't spoil it for anybody, but if you already have a subscription to Apple TV+, it's probably worth a watch. The Silo series is also good on the same platform.

Those look like pretty nice sandals. I'll have to look them up. I often wonder how often people get their shoes or sandals stolen when they're sitting outside an establishment, but then again, most people seem to wear such cheap junk that no one would want to steal them anyway. I'm guilty of paying too much for shoes and sandals, I guess, so I'd worry.

Aren't all those issue still in litigation? Trump's attorney general says they will follow the law, so when the matters are finally settled, I expect that's what they'll do. Follow the law. Of course the courts have no power to enforce the rulings, but I don't see Trump ignoring the Supreme Court, yet. Could it happen? Sure. It might also be a really stupid thing to do, because then Congress would have an excuse to step in and no one knows how that could go. The margins are already close, and it could all end up badly for Trump.

He can try, but I'm not so sure that would fly, legally. The Fed is a private/public institution created by Congress in 1913. It is owned by its member banks, but the are restrictions on that ownership. The Fed chairman is appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate and can only be removed for "cause." In any event, Trump's authority to "fire" Powell is not clear. My guess is that Trump will not be allowed to fire Powell, absent a finding of cause. Otherwise, what's the purpose of an independent Fed? If Trump can fire Powell just because he wants to, then a precedent will be established. Any President will always be able to fire any Fed chairman. Fed independence would become just a joke. O f course, in a perfect world, there would be no Fed and the market would set rates. That probably won't happen anytime soon, though.

You misunderstand. I don't care whether you listen to me or not. I'm just stating my opinion. All I ask is that, rather than argue and ask for "sources," just sit back and wait a month or so, and see if I'm not right. For your purposes, my source is me.

But for the advent of the Central Bank Digital Currency, he could be right, although I'm not sure about the 50 year duration. It could be more like 10. The dollar is in use around the world and that can't stop overnight. For example, thousands of oblong term financing agreements are in place that must be settled in US dollars. And there are some countries that will be reluctant to move away from the dollar, at least immediately. Anyway, the Trump team seems to be planning on a CBDC sometime soon, so that could change everything. How long until that happens? Will it be implemented in phases? Who knows?

So your argument is that, strictly as a function of global dollar reserves, the US dollar gradually outpaced the pound following WWI until it achieved dominance in the early 60s Fine. The decline of the pound was a bit complicated for various reasons, but the Bretton Woods agreement itself did establish the system that continued until Nixon controlled the gold window in 1971. That was my point.

But it did. What fantasy world do you live in? The Bretton Woods agreement in 1944 established the US dollar as the world reserve currency, and, between nations, the dollar was freely convertible into gold. But the US mindset was for more, more, more. And so next on the agenda was the Korean War and then the Vietnam war. Big money spent that began to flood the world with dollars. Other nations, but France under de Gaulle in particular, became uncomfortable with their US dollar holdings and began converting those dollars into gold. The US gold reserves were being drained. Nixon could read the writing on the wall, and in 1971 closed the gold window, effectively defaulting on the Bretton Woods agreement and establishing the era of fiat currencies. Around the same time, Kissinger made an agreement with the Saudis that they would buy and hold US Treasury bonds and price oil only in dollars in return for military protection, and the rest is history. That system is now falling apart, but the process will take a number of years, as dollars are in use around the world for various purposes.

What you're discussing is the Chinese mindset. A long term perspective. Even if we assume some or all what you say is true, the real and immediate issues facing China may overwhelm that mindset, at least over the short term. And don't forget, China has a recent history of not keeping its promises about international trade. What have they done? They say yes to some deal, and then they don't do much. Business as usual, more or less. Whether it's deals they made with Trump during his first term, or the agreement they made when joining the WTO, China agrees to one thing, and then often does another. Or, they comply, but only a little. I could go on with other examples, but you get the picture. What happens next? Don't forget the concept of "face" in Asia. You might be told "yes," and then nothing happens. It happens every day, even with trade agreements. Short term internal politics may well force China into making a deal with Trump. That has happened before. How Trump prevents the same or similar outcome? That's why Trump is focused on the overall balance of trade and not simply tariff levels on different categories. I'm not sure what will happen next, exactly, but look for a deal sometime soon, even if it's illusory.

It will get worse, whether or not Trump gets his tax reductions. The tax reductions will add to the problem, for sure, but the debt will spiral put of control in any event. As the dollar weakens and the borrowing increases, bond yields will rise along with interest owned on the national debt. So the interest burden will increase the debt at an even faster pace. At a point, additional borrowing becomes less and less beneficial, meaning they have to borrow even more to keep up. The system eventually spirals out of control. And to add insult to injury, much of the nation's debt has been financed short term, recently. Rather than trying using long bonds, they've been financing the deficit with shorter term debt. Debt that is more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. A lot of that debt will have to be refinanced sometime soon, and, if present trends continue, at even higher rates. Long story short: the present system cannot work much longer without some big changes.

That about sums it up. It never ceases to amaze me how many people just gobble up the mainstream propaganda and run with it. Some of it is so silly, I wonder how they can really believe it.

Hardly. Real people in the right places. Like I said, there's no need to argue. Just sit back and watch. Within a month, it'll be over.

I thought the whole point of 800 numbers was that they're free to call. Can't you just make a call from your Thai phone? And some banks seem to have special numbers you can call when you're outside the country.

Aa I've said, this thing with China will be over soon. Probably within a month. At this point, why don't you sit back, watch, and see if I'm not right. I have pretty good sources.