lannarebirth

My feeling is that Abhisit has little control and that there are a hardcore group who will replce him and crack down far more violently if he doesnt do what they want to a minimal degree first. Right now having Anhisit going on about poltical solutions that he is in no position to bring off is probably better than what could replace it. Listen to Chamlong, Newin, some Dem MPs and other shadowy characters. This is a very very high stakes power game and it likely wont be resolved by any "normal" political play at the stage it is at now

Reporters have been asking Abhisit about his duty. Unless everyone steps back this one is going to end in tears.

I'm sure Abhisit would quit rather than preside over a crackdown, probably Anupong too.

It might well be an indicator if one or both do quit that there would be a severe crackdown.

They are fighting now near Don Muang.

It is credible that rather than a wholesale and bloody crackdown Abhisit and Anupong would prefer to decapitate the Redshirt leadership by nabbing the leaders and this looks like it might be the best opportunity or "timing" to seize at least some of them. This may be what is happening as the new orders to the mob are to return to the greater safety of the static and fortified base at Centerpoint. Movement away from their so far secure Centerpoint base exposes them and provides the government the occasion/opportunity to nab and decapitate.

The anti-Roach Motel concept. They can check out but they can't check back in. Divide and conquer.

Up with the $ again today

Dont know why silver is just sitting today....ah well

Nice solid reversal and breakout today. Gold stocks, not.

It has nothing to do with whether you have paid your taxes or not it. The govt has mismanaged the money for so long and spend spend spend. Now they desperately need more taxes. I think they would be willing to spend borrow $10 to collect $5.

Newin

Many people have not expressed surprise that the "acquitted of the rubber tree scandal" Newin led MP's to join the un-holy coalition.

Scratch yours if you scratch mine stuff..........

Ahh yes.

Newin - Thaksin's protege and former right hand man for several years.

Thaksin - Chief Executive Officer and symbolic leader of the red shirt movement.

Lynch pin of each coalition. Its got a nice circularity to it.

Can anybody take a minute to share the online links (or names) of online news sources for BKK or National Thailand news?

Obviously we know The Nation and The BKK Post but there seems to be a number of others that at least from time to time have news that I never remember to bookmark. Also, is there any online source of news that has more than just the basic blurbs and actually get into sharing the same type of news that a local Thai paper or site might share?

http://www.onlinenewspapers.com/thailand.htm

Something from Red Shirts Today thread

Reds dismiss claim they plan to harm monarchy

Red shirt leaders denied on Tuesday their involvement in a campaign designed to overthrow the monarchy and threatened to sue the government for defamation.

Redshirt leader Natthawut Saikua said none of the reds were linked in any attempts to harm the monarchy.

He said portraying the reds as disloyal to the monarchy was just a figment of the government's and the military's imagination, adding that the reds had instructed their lawyers to initiate a defamation lawsuit.

He went on to question why the authorities were labelling the reds as terrorists when those involved in violence in the three southernmost provinces were classified as insurgents.

Redshirt leader weng Tojirakarn said the reds were struggling to achieve six goals, none of which was about overthrowing the monarchy as alleged.

Could this be the governments last card?

I see they provide ZERO evidence to back it up!

Hmmm maybe, but it seemed to be enough for Newin to put his cards on the table.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/...y-30128124.html

Ok Jerry, You're the PM and this is the scenario. Family: mother, father, a grandparent an aunty, 2 kids, all sitting on 5 rai of paddy land in the middle of Isaan. One crop per year if the weather gods are smiling. What are you going to do for these people? Should that 5 rai have to support the 2 kids in the next generation?

Or even more realistic. Family: mother, father, aunty, 4 children are barely getting by on their 5 rai of land. These 4 children grow up, get married and now there are 16 children from four families for a total of 24 people all trying to live off that same 5 rai of land. What is to be done?

And what should they be doing for themselves?

Wow....I have already explained 4 or 5 times that Thailand need a "Town and Country Planning", that Thailand is exactly in the same situation than France 50 years ago and that French have succeeded to reduced their farming population from 50% of the population to 5%.

It must be a very large policy with infrastructure investments, delocalisation of some industries, modernisation of agriculture (subsidised until the Agriculture reaches International Standards), regrouping of small farmers in cooperative/ associations, banking support and siubsidising for equipment of thoose cooperatives....

A fund for bad weather (drought, flood, storms...) in order to garantee an income, progressively converted in a mandatory insurance.

Prices of major agricultural products sustained in order to garantee a minimum income, until the internatrional Standards are met. (Subsidising Agriculture like we have done in USA or in Europe)

A revision of the Thai Budget is required with a large part allocated to this policy. At the end it will cost less than the migration of the northern population in Bangkokian suburban belt with all the costs associated with the mushrooming of the Megapole.

I have also stated than some Thai Academics well aware of the French policy were very impressed.

I have also stated that this must be accompanied by a Decentralisation (Political and Administrative with elected governors and local parliament- similar to the States in USA or the French regions....

I have developped several times all this. Please look in my previous posts.

In 1970 the percent of Thai people employed in agriculture was 79.3%. In 1990 it was 66.0%. Today I think its something like 49%. That's an accelerating drop in workers in the agriculture field and of course there's much more rai under cultivation now. That seems to be good progress already with more coming I'm sure.

I agree about minimum wages should be raised in fields other than farming and I'm pleased there is now a workable price stabilizing scheme for rice, but I'm sure you know the government can not guarantee prices substantially different than the world market. Thaksin learned that when he ran up a 70 Billion Baht + bill for diesel subsidies in a few months time.

Ok Jerry, You're the PM and this is the scenario. Family: mother, father, a grandparent an aunty, 2 kids, all sitting on 5 rai of paddy land in the middle of Isaan. One crop per year if the weather gods are smiling. What are you going to do for these people? Should that 5 rai have to support the 2 kids in the next generation?

Or even more realistic. Family: mother, father, aunty, 4 children are barely getting by on their 5 rai of land. These 4 children grow up, get married and now there are 16 children from four families for a total of 24 people all trying to live off that same 5 rai of land. What is to be done?

And what should they be doing for themselves?

Of course the majority of the red shirt demonstrators are decent people. Salt of the Earth in many ways. Thais from all walks of life tend to be kind, generous, and fun. The problem is they are demonstrating illegally, harboring terrorists, and holding the citizens of Bangkok hostage.

They just request their share of the wealth accumulated in Thailand than Bankokian Middle/Upper class has appropriate to itself. It is just a fair request for income redistribution. "Please do not less us on the side of the pdevelopment road".

Terrorists???? more and more it seems that is is "OK Corral' between some army factions. Is Army now a bunch of terrorists or potential terrorists? I let the responsability of this opinion to way2muchcoffeee

Ok Jerry, You're the PM and this is the scenario. Family: mother, father, a grandparent an aunty, 2 kids, all sitting on 5 rai of paddy land in the middle of Isaan. One crop per year if the weather gods are smiling. What are you going to do for these people? Should that 5 rai have to support the 2 kids in the next generation?

Probably after he wins the next election!!!!!! Why do you think he is not calling one now?

I didn't mean to imply he would win the next election only that there is no time between now and whenever that is to even begin to tackle these tasks. Winning the election is just one more of his huge orders of business to accomplish. Hence the "Mission Impossible". The jokes are never as funny when you need to explain them.

And what makes you think that will ever happen? Why not have a think before ranting at people?

A few thousand paid thugs does not a sizeable proportion of the country make. Could be wrong, but I can't see the vast majority of Isaan folk making a fuss and taking up arms to have a go at the middle classes because a mob from their own neighbourhood was totalled. Most of them are just ordinary folk that want to get on with things, yet some people lump them all together as if they're one entity ready to pounce.

Should there be a crackdown, the worst that'll probably happen will be groups of thugs causing strife for cash. Take away the leaders and the cash flow and it'll wither away.

The Red shirts must be dreaming of an attempt to take them over as if the military did this the reds know that they would win. They would have worldwide support and would become martyrs in Thailand. Dont underestimate the strength of red shirt support. I see and hear it all the time in Bangkok. People have been made to realize what a controlled and unequal society this is and that knowledge wont go away.

1- It is clear that Army is divided.

2- The Red Shirt issue happens now but socially it has to happen at some times due to the too important differences in the Thai Society. It was unavoidable...If it is postponed, the social issue will bounce back. It has to be adressed correctly.

3- Yes there are some other interests superimposed to the Red Shirts ones and which are manipulating the situation independantly of the Red Shirts. it is interesting if you have the opportunity to read some foreign sources which are censored in Thailand (like Mandala), you will discover than the situation is more complex than Red/yellow shirt conflict and you will have confirmation that we are on the verge of a Civil war, you will understand also that the Thaksin episod is far behind us since the 10th of April. The situation is quite sensitive.

Virtually everyone has been saying it is complex for ages. It is only certain low level red propagandists who use if you arent red you are yellow. Even the PAD dont claim it is all about Thaksin look at some of Sondhis stuff. This has been discussed extensively on here for months and months. As to how much Thaksin remains involved people differ and that would only be answered were the reds to win. Most external westren analysis mentions splits in the military whgich have been discussed here for years. Most western military analysis mentions a particular power broker and a force he set up as being the big worry for soldier on soldier stuff although some others have differnet theories which since the recent positioning of forces seem to have lost ground to the other theory. Janes had some stuff on this but slightly dated and Professor Balls book has been recommended for understanding. For military gossip albeit unsubstantiated Crispin is a good source in English. I note today that NM has rehashed the now minority opinion story of April 10 but in a very gossipy unsubstantiated way, which is a tad amazing consdieriung what they accuse the Nation of but it does fit with their slant so only to be expected.

The way I see it Abhisit needs to modify to diminish the two largest non government institutions, He needs to rebuild from the ground up another institution. That done AFTER he sorts out the current mess using people he'll have to turn on later, probably after he wins the next election. He needs to have a national dialogue to accomplish any of these things, drawing in both followers of the Red and Yellow factions. All while these various institutions try to subvert his goals. Sounds like Mission Impossible. Failure to do it leads to a Phillipine like state at best and a Burma like state at worst with random violent acts occuring here and there. Somewhere in there he needs to keep his party from being dissolved. Sure hope it rains soon.

-- The Nation

Red shirt leaders denied on Tuesday their involvement in a campaign designed to overthrow the monarchy and threatened to sue the government for defamation.

Redshirt leader Natthawut Saikua said none of the reds were linked in any attempts to harm the monarchy.

He said portraying the reds as disloyal to the monarchy was just a figment of the government's and the military's imagination, adding that the reds had instructed their lawyers to initiate a defamation lawsuit.

He went on to question why the authorities were labelling the reds as terrorists when those involved in violence in the three southernmost provinces were classified as insurgents.

Redshirt leader weng Tojirakarn said the reds were struggling to achieve six goals, none of which was about overthrowing the monarchy as alleged.

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

There are many if not most within the red movement who wish for the unthinkable, including Thaksin, who once tried to get hold of the royal funds. Then the communists ... Plenty of proof around.

When I watched locals away from the scenes today, I figured most are really scarred now. Even many reds have changed colors because of this.

It's a big issue and Abhisit needs to start a national dialogue on it on behalf of all Thai people. He can't start it under these conditions however and maybe that's why these conditions exist.

I am glad this is not India. Else we have to call them RED Indians. I am sure the Apache, Cherokee and Kickapoo, etc would not be amused.

More reminiscent of the Hekawi tribe I think. Their pursuers remind me of the Hekawi's as well.

What is Martial Law?

Does than mean everyone has to go be before sunset?

Whatever the military says it is. Rule by military.

Some consensus from both sides of the political divide here on the forum:-

The standard of journalism of The Nation is poor, very poor, dropping....

Suthep Thaugsuban is not a great chap to be in control of anything...regardless of what shirt you wear or don't wear!

Yeah, he's not good, but I don't know of any "clean" political party that doesn't have a go to guy "fixer" with not so nice chacteristics. Same with dirty politicians usually having a "mr clean" guy for public consumption.

"Thai PM Abhisit Says Seeking Political Solution To Crisis"

I am not sure if I understand correctly. Does Mark mean he is using political mean and not by force?

"Political means" can include all sorts of things including the truth, lies, propaganda, alliances of convenience, backstabbing, deal making, you name it. Its almost always less bloody but it doesn't always provide long term solutions. Not that violence does of course. He knows he has a lot to lose if force is used, evn if the majority come to believe that it is justified.

You forget the title of the childish PM you sent me neverdie, (that was the really weird part folks) Go ahead, post it

Perhaps that was a typo

ps: I only called you something that rhymed with Russell.

Bussell? Cussell? Dussell? Fussell? Gussell? Jussell? Kussell? Lussell? Mussell? Nussell? Pussell? Sussell? Tussell? Vussell? Wussell?

I'm a little disappointed that for once, you're not thinking outside the box.

corpuscle?

Kind of also boggles the mind that the reds ideals are about communism but use the buzz word democracy to muddle this. I am not against a socialist or even communist regime in Thailand if that is what the people want and is good for the country but the reds hide the fact this is what they want. Do you really believe they and their leaders are too ignorant to communicate any agenda or concrete polices beyond over throwing the current government? The red leaders have made it clear their is no help or social plans the current gov't could offer them that will stop them from demanding this gov't be thrown out of power now. A vote in 9-months is not accepted nor was even negotiating for a better time frame. Call this Thaksin inspired revolution what you want but open your eyes ... a popular hat being sold and wore at the red camp is actually a communist Red Star hat. Clearly at least the leaders must be aware of what that represents.

You are confusing communism with 'red shirts' in a Thai context - poor choice of colour but it doesn't indicate communism.

How much do you know about communism? Ever lived in a communist country?

Oh goodie a know-it-all - I have travelled extensively (Russia seventeen times) but that is irrelevant – the 'red's' here – although their colour is 'red' – has no connotation with communism – now go back to school amd learn the basics:

Red doesn't mean Communist - repeat 100 times

Man United are NOT Communist - they just wear red - repeat 100 times

Finally something we can agree on. The Red Shirts are a fascist movement, not even a hint of communism except for some commie sympathizers they enlisted to bulk up their numbers.

Brit, it not a thaivisa policy, it is a Bangkok Post policy

Ah, I see! Apologies TV.

Due to people who did only took their own interest in mind and made false, empty promises to the poor, Thailand has come to a point where something has to give. The Nation Newspaper should be the last one to point fingers. The Nation has been in the camp of coup takers and the city elite for a long long time. Instead of explaining the readers how a democracy works they encouraged the yellow shirts to take over the city. It was this mob which was called "creative" by foreign minister Kasit who encouraged the have nots to adapt to the same tactics. However, where women and children were not safe at all when the yellows were on the streets. (Never seen so many incapacitated armed guards who had completely lost it) the reds are just on the street. the very same soldiers that the Nation welcomed in order to overthrow legitimate governments are settling internal scores right now. That has nothing to do with yellow or red but with the way the army is organized and the way they pass over good people.

The Nation should set a good example and explain why Abhisit is the best man for the job. (Young, inexperienced, never seen a rice paddy, rich, spoiled, never led a village, city, province or company). The Nation should also explain why there is so much disparity in income between the rich and the poor. They should explain why the rich are hardly paying any taxes, and they should explain that Thaksin is not the only one who was not paying taxes on the sale of his imperium. Nobody does in Thailand. They should explain why it is fine for a company that filed for bankruptcy and let numerous investors and banks out there with billions of dollars in bad debt to pay the Democrat party 256 million baht.

Anarchy is the rule in Thailand for 40 years. Not one person high up feels that the laws are made for them. Politicians with murderous sons buy the judges, Politicians who occupy airports buy judges, corruption and graft is a fine art in Thailand, hardly ever committed by anyone with a red shirt, they have nothing so they get nothing and can pay or ask certainly for nothing.

On top of that the Nation should explain why they support a movement (PAD) that opposes the one man, one vote principle. The Nation is only one reason why Thailand is in a sorry state.

I have to agree with you, the Nation is not delivering the goods. The Bangkok Post on the other hand seems to have upped its game considerably. A LOT of excellent reporting, background stories and analysis of late. It's a shame we can't use that reference here. I hope ThaiVisa re-examines that policy.

What could possibly come from new elections?

- Scenario 1: The Red Shirts and PTP win and build the government. The constitution is amended and all former PPP and TRT members including Thaksin are given amnesty. Thaksin is again PM. The PAD has been closely monitoring the whole thing and also know from previous experience that whatever they do, no-one will ever be prosecuted. So they start again their rallies. Until the "new"government is forced out. Back to square 1.

- Scenario 2: The Democrats and their allies win and Abhisit is again PM. Thaksin and his cronies and the Red Shirt know by now that whatever they do, there will be no consequences, no one will be held responsible. So they go out again and call the "new"government illegal. Back to square 1.

- Scenario 3: The Military step in and stage a coup, all in the name of - you know who - and of course democracy. And we are again where we were in September 2006. Back to square 1.

What's the consequence of this? Yielding to pressure and blackmail, giving in to terrorist and negotiating with them will never solve any problem. It will only give other groups the idea and the appetite to do the same. The only language these people understand is the language of authority and force. Unfortunately this should have been done at the time of the airport occupation. Is it too late now? I am afraid so.

Law and order and government authority are key factors for a peaceful democracy. Double standards as we have seen too much now, must stop.

After having re-established law and order and applied one single standard (to all colors), we can start talking and listening.

Your scenario (1) doesn't include the power vacuum and loss of balance a succession would bring. Thaksin stacks the Army and a new dynasty begins.

Excellent!

Are you French by chance? You must be from somewhere civilised!

Now, who is most likely to implement such things? The Democrats? the reds? Chart Thai Pattana?

As I've stated before, I think it will take two generations to sort things out. But it is possible.

I think it is most urgent to take action to try and make elections fair:-

1) No gerrymandering

2) Voting to be entirely confidential,

3) parties MUST publish manifestos

4) Voting buying to punished by severe prison term and life long ban from being an MP.

5) Get rid of the laughable requirement for MPs to have a degree (easily obtainable in Khao San Rd I suspect)

Response from reds? What do YOU want?

I have personnally meet general Chavalit few times, I do know that in 1997 he has been trapped by his Ministry of Finances and I do know that he is a man taking on him the errors of his subordinates.

Some people from his entourage told me that my ideas were quite close from Chavalit ones.

I will add for elections; candidates must present their campaign budget which has to be limited in order to permit poor people to be elected. Also part of the budget reimbursed if the Candidate reaches 5% of votes.

Interesting! Please can you enlighten me as to Chavalit history? What is his involvement today? Thanks

I have already told you: I am not in the Chavalit entourage, I have just gotten the opportunity to meet him 2, 3 years ago before the present affairs (before Abhisit in power)

At present, I am like you I follow what he is doing through the medias. But I appreciate that as leader he always takes full responsabilities of his subordinates and also he has a vision for development of the upper Country very similar to what I have exposed. (particularly industrial hubs in Issan). I do know also that some Thai Academics are very impressed by the French policy "Town and Country Planning" and do think they would like to implement something like that in their Country.

Do a little research into Khong-Chi-Mun, Green Isaan and Greening Isaan initiatives. Chavalit had his hand everywhere in it. All marked by no research, no public participation, no transparency, environmental damage and strong opposition from the people they claimed to want to help. It all added up to nothing with profound environmental damage added to the Isaanites lot. Some people made a lot of money though.

Maybe he,s killing time before the army takes action again, speical ops takes planning

I think that's it. The larger the body of well trained and loyal soldiers he can assemble, the greater the likelihood of success. Not just because of the preparation but the belief of the less rabid opposition that the government will prevail. That should send many back home.

I repeat as one example the policy than we have done in my Country for solving the problem of farmers (50% in the 50's and now around 5%0

1- A minister is created for Town and Country planning

2- Important investments are done for supporting development of infrastructures (railways, highways, irrigation, industrial hubs, domestic airline subsidised)

3- Decentralisation of industries whenever possible with taxes incentives and hub policy for creating jobs throughout the territory: the aim is to stabilise the population throughout the Country and to avoid Bangkok suburbs to become gigantic

4- decentralisation of Administration and democracy with elected Governors and local assemblies for managing locally the developpement (better decisions and surveillance locally than when everything is done in Bangkok)

5- agriculture modernised through a wide policy (regrouping of farmers in cooperatives, subsidies until the Agriculture is at International standard, specific banking support). important investments like irrigation, researches.... under schemes developped with Academics (Agriculture Universities).

6- Until the Agriculture is reaching an International Standards rice, rubber... prices supported and subsidised. (like european and US farmers)

7. Education for all and quality guaranteed throughout the territory

8- Immediately a budget equivalent to Ministry of defence one is allocated for supporting this policy.

this is a frame for discussions, I may have forgotten some details

Excellent!

Are you French by chance? You must be from somewhere civilised!

Now, who is most likely to implement such things? The Democrats? the reds? Chart Thai Pattana?

As I've stated before, I think it will take two generations to sort things out. But it is possible.

I think it is most urgent to take action to try and make elections fair:-

1) No gerrymandering

2) Voting to be entirely confidential,

3) parties MUST publish manifestos

4) Voting buying to punished by severe prison term and life long ban from being an MP.

5) Get rid of the laughable requirement for MPs to have a degree (easily obtainable in Khao San Rd I suspect)

Response from reds? What do YOU want?

Thaksin had 6-years to start or implement these things. And do you think the reds are too stupid to know what is good for them? They are not asking for any of these things or have eluded to wanting anything of these things in their year+ aggressions.

Actually Abhisit is trying to implement these things. The thing Jerry left out is accountability which the government requires but that doesn't suit local leaders. Hence the "Red Shirts". ALL this money gets drained away locally without accountability to CENTRAL government. Local government is an incestuous mix of families involved in a govt/business military partnership. There's no "trickle down". You haven't noticed the rice millers, rice storage, rice "middlemen are up in arms since this government has instituted new policies? Why do you think that is?

It's such a joke - the yellow's calling for Martial law after they crippled the country and set this bad example - THEY started it all by bringing down an elected red government.

This fight doesn't have anything to do with democracy, it's about corruption.

BTW there hasn't been any real government here in Thailand ever. Only opposing interests, well balanced. Thailand is approaching a tipping point where the balance will shift to the provincial chao por and nak leng with the backing of rogue army elements. They will use "democracy" (as they see it) to cement their power and redirect all funds intended for the welfare of the people. They will discharge their own largesse through patron client relationships and Thailand becomes a failed state. The peasants get nothing, but that's what they've always got from their local leaders so nothing changes for them.

well... i agree with your first comment - very depressing - they should try reading the Buddha's teachings

Tell me why you don't agree with my second comment.