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lannarebirth

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Posts posted by lannarebirth

  1. There are certain truisms in technical analysis, and one is, once charts start going vertical, you know it will all be given back at some point. You can lose a lot of money trying to pick that top though.

    I know you have a lot of charting under your belt.

    I have also heard this about vertical wall type charts.

    One thing I wonder is reasons for such behavior. Meaning

    when it comes to stocks news driven etc.. I understand the reasoning for chart

    expectations.

    But when it comes to gold & silver I am wondering. Will all rules or past charting experiences hold true?

    Wondering is based on the reasons for the rise. Not just the common reasons that the talking heads use

    on all the financial shows. Jewelry demand....dollar loss etc..

    But today the other reason of loss of faith in a current system. With that in mind I wonder about this wall of

    worry that gold is climbing. What would collapse *that* wall? I do not see anything on the near horizon so that

    makes the wall even more......I dont even want to say impressive.... But it all just makes me wonder.

    I am long physical & not trading coins. But the general market action is very interesting to watch & try to understand the

    fears & expectations that are driving it.

    So I guess what I am asking is do you have a premise for why this vertical climb would collapse anytime soon? Other than...that is just a normal reaction seen so often in charting?

    Just curious & not being bold or daring...Just a honest question. As I said I know you & a few others are well versed in charting/tech analysis.

    I am not one who has claimed that Gold is in a bubble. It has been in a strong bull move for years and for the most part it has tested breakouts, corrected or consolidated appropriately prior to its next move higher. Around here is its "target" for this move. It should be a low risk trade to short when backed up against resistance because one doesn't have to make their stop loss too big. If it doesn't correct/consolidate here I'll be in the bubble camp. The reason parabolic charts collapse is because there is no support. Speculators from lower levels start taking profits, people who bought the top on margin are underwater, margin calls, and down she goes.

    I don't trade it (Gold), but I do trade the derivative for PM stocks. I find that is easier for me to map.

  2. Gold is hot now but entering a blow off top. Watch out for DZZ (200% short gold). Buy below 10(around 12 now) and average down further below if necessary. Kiss back at 30(40/50) within 3 years. This is especially attractive for non American Investors as it includes a projected and unavoidable turn around of the US$. Don't forget to donate some profits to charity :)

    Could be but the way commercial/residential real estate is headed here.....

    I would be willing to maybe bet on SRS instead.

    There are certain truisms in technical analysis, and one is, once charts start going vertical, you know it will all be given back at some point. You can lose a lot of money trying to pick that top though.

  3. Dear all,

    Just returned from a meeting and would like to share with you some of the things discussed.

    The outsourcing of the manafacturing base to low wage countries has been a succes. The next step is to outsource all non person to person jobs and it is estimated that another 10 Million jobs from the US will be outsourced, think of bean counters, radiologists and such, this is already happening on a small scale but will grow.

    Target for the price of oil in the next 4 months is around 110 USD, Gold will rise to about 1300-1350 USD at year end.

    Take care all!

    :)

    I could live with the outsourcing if I believed it contributed to widely raising the living standards of populations in the poorest countries. I'm not convinced that is the case.

    http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazin...ution-in-china/

  4. Obviously he knows everyone he has ever done dirty work for, been the fall guy for, favors for, and has plugged into the public trough. Some of whom are obviously no longer "friends of Thaksin" and some from the highest order of Thai society. I think most Thais would not be surprised by the names. They chat them amongst themselves anyway.

    The thing I worry about is that he says or does something to inflame the South.

  5. If I were a young man and had to think about earning a living, I think I'd be suicidal. I put in my time and I was well ready to relax with no schedule to keep.

    Unfortunately I have a number of projects started and rarely get any of them finished. I will say that when I lived in a condo, I was somewhat bored. Since moving upcountry, having plenty of land to grow anything I want, and being able to play with a tractor, I am happy. A large well equipped workshop is also great to have.

    I do have many things I should do, but nothing I can't put off until tomorrow, or next week, or next month.

    It's me! It's me!

  6. "Jamie Dimon? Oh My Lord!"

    I have a feeling that, no matter who's name was mentioned, you'd be reduced to tears and drama.

    You know, if I owned a bank, he's just the guy I'd want to run it. He is an extremely capable manager. If I needed someone to manage an economic plan in the public interest I think I'd probably keep looking. If selected, he'll make the market move, you can count on that.

  7. by the way, what happened to Geithner? why is Alex the Lah not present to tell us Geithner is as big an idiot as Bernanke? is Geithner now in the good books of the doom&gloomers? is there no youtube clip or blogspot that explains the situation?

    the same questions go as far as the conspiracies are concerned. did the Bilderbergs retire? are the Illuminati on holidays? was the pig flu virus engineered by the CIA or the KGB?

    Try to keep up Herr Naam. Little Timmah is so yesterday. (as in pink slip) :)

    "Geithner's Crisis Sleepwalk Is Reason He Must Go"

    and:

    "Jamie Dimon seen as good fit for Treasury"

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a1B7Cs1f.TO8

    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/poli...K#ixzz0XgULTN9u

    Regards.

    Jamie Dimon? Oh My Lord! Get your 2012 LEAP calls purchased, start eyeing the 2014 LEAP puts and get busy on that cave excavation.

  8. [...]one more time for the intellectually challenged

    the TREND is your friend :D

    :D Bizarrely I dont think 'trading' requires intellectual enlightenment, but conformity does have its benefits in financial markets. 'Until the bend at the end' that is.

    Just to ensure your not mistaken as one of the intellectually challenged, make sure when the trend does change, you announce it nice and clearly fr us all Mr Zorro. :)

    Incidentally if we look at the last 9weeks performance in Americas Value Line Index, the NYSE composite Index and the Nasdaq composite Index, we see indices that are down 1%, up just over 1% and up less than 1%, respectively.

    Unimpressive, even for the intellectually challenged, surely?

    So, if it the market leader isn't leading, what is?

    post-25601-1259038687_thumb.png

    Oh, I see it's the Dow. Interesting.

  9. My sector is loans for "business purposes" in the states of Oregon and Washington because those are the places I understand the prevailing laws, which differ by state. My standards are much lower LTV's than has been extant recently and now my phone is finally ringing. A lot of sad stories out there.

    Sure, the $USD is going to zero, but I might as well make 12%-14% on it while it does.

    If you take those paragraphs at face value it seems to imply the sort of logic that got us into this whole mess. I mean if the US$ goes to zero then no US$ asset you own has infinite returns relative.

    I thought everyone here knew that I am emoticonically challanged. I probably should have slipped a :D in after "zero", but I'm well aware it could turn out to be a :D , or even a :D , or God forbid a :D . It's all a crap shoot really and I'm thinking having a finger in many pies may be the way to go if :) . Honestly, as sad as it sounds the USA is my economic growth engine. What I derive there doesn't stay there, so each year it becomes a smaller portion of my overall wealth and only a portion of it is taxable.

    Unless we can convince Herr Naam to let us on his island, come the revolution I'll probably be standing near you at the wall (perhaps not in the VIP section) and the next day someone will be dining on our livers, so I'll take what I can get till then. :D

  10. All true, but the fact is the world is awash in cash and alternative mechanisms exist. For the first time in a long time, hard money lending is starting to pick up in the sector I operate in. Still, it's a tough environment as almost no one seems to have any equity in anything.

    I am assuming you mean all the money that was sidelined.

    Also your sector I am assuming you mean the markets?

    If so how do you mean none have equity? Because of previous losses or because they enter now & hope?

    From where I operate I see some money coming in now too & trying to buy short sales,

    hoping this is a bottom. But they are coming in spending & now have no real equity & are just hoping

    their new hard asset appreciates & does not fall lower.

    No, I mean everyone and his dog has mean able to get money cheap and play the spread in lending on to others. Rules became so lax and LTV became so high that a lot of those people have been washed out of the hard money lending business. They were even taking second positions for crissakes! What did they expect?

    My sector is loans for "business purposes" in the states of Oregon and Washington because those are the places I understand the prevailing laws, which differ by state. My standards are much lower LTV's than has been extant recently and now my phone is finally ringing. A lot of sad stories out there.

    Sure, the $USD is going to zero, but I might as well make 12%-14% on it while it does.

  11. Banks are not lending despite the massive quantitative easing. They are fat with reserves, paying huge bonuses again, and obviously doing something with their money other than providing funds for the commercial activity of the nation.

    Excess Reserves are an accounting function. The banks themselves do not reduce their reserves significantly through lending. But it is symptomatic in the sense that the lack of reserves is most definitely NOT an issue with lending.

    No one can deny with any credibility that if the Federal Reserve reduced their payment on reserves to zero, or even a negative, that lending activity would not increase. And yet they do not. Why?

    Because the first priority of the Fed is the health of the banking system itself, and not the national economy and the availability of credit. And the unspoken factor is that the banking system is not yet healthy, is not sound, is not well capitalized despite the record expansion in the monetary base and its specific direction to the banks themselves. They have simply not taken the writedown necessary to make themselves financially sound.

    All true, but the fact is the world is awash in cash and alternative mechanisms exist. For the first time in a long time, hard money lending is starting to pick up in the sector I operate in. Still, it's a tough environment as almost no one seems to have any equity in anything.

  12. keyjor,

    How can I?

    Jimi, well he's just outstanding. He'd have no part in a group. He need's his own hting.

    Somebody mentioned Kurt. Gimme a break.

    Somebody else made me Cross saying that Freddie Mercury "HAD" to be aprt of any super group. Does he <deleted>?

    I won't even mention Birdman's post, which you picked up on.

    LeungKen may be onto something, with his post.

    But seriously, (-ish), Elvis?

    It would be a tough thing to pull off. Dylan, Petty, Harrison, Orbison and the guy from ELO did it with the Travellling Wilburys. Did anything they produced sound as good as their own indivdual bodies of work? Not really. Still, some nice music and I'll bet they had a blast.

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