lannarebirth

"Whatever going down, it's all good".

wasnt talking to you. Im a totall newb compared to you and find your knowledge very impressive. my aim is purely at those who sit on the sidelines being committed bears. I dont get that . why not swap suits?

For the record, here's my view, which I shared with another forum member on May 18th:

"Markets wise the $SPX probed its 34 week ema (one of the most important levels in my work and which I posted about at TV). That should be expected to halt the advance. At this time I expect no more than a few weeks of consolidation below that level and an attempt at breeching the 34 week ema once again. If the market is successful there it could advance for months. If it is not successful there I think more bottom building work is in order. My personal bias at this time is that we will not be seeing the March lows again anytime soon. See chart" :

As you can see, that's m/l what happened.

Perhaps. I use an "always-in" strategy so hence I am always long or always short. When its time to bail, then I exit long and flip 2x short. As of today, long trade still in effect from April 7th. See no reason to jump off because the market feels bearish or think the uptrend is ending. I let the strategy do the thinking and acting.

Maybe I still don't understand the markets though?

[/quote}

bears think that every new high = beginning of a new low. But what would you know LOL errrrm be careful out there

One question for the bears, lets assume we do make a V recovery, what then? how will You make $ chasing a few pips sideways or down maybe 1 or 2 thousand points?. That will be beer money . What a waste..

Im in all the way untill a downtrend is confirmed 100% but dont see anything right now, let her ride..

I'm not a bear per se, but I get the impression you're talking to me. I don't post trades much but the last one I did could be construed as bearish as I'd bought puts. They appreciated 60% in 4 hours and i sold them. The gain was more than my family spends in 2 months. That's the object, right? To pull money out of the market? You seem to need to create some adversarial environment to justify your actions or non actions. Why would i care what you are doing to make money, or why would you care what I'm doing? Just wondering.

The conspiracy I was pointing at a bit more than a year ago has finally seen the light of day (sort of). Remember I was hammering about oil?

Read the following: http://seekingalpha.com/article/172797-the...icle_sb_popular

As I no longer work for"The Company" and now that the story is in public domain I can confirm this story is 99% true.

Taking cover........

Have you already forgotten last years epic thread Alex?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=2108433

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=2112461

From the Bangkok Post's "Letters To The Editor"

Name creates a stink

As the odour of treason wafts into Thailand from Cambodia, it is fascinating to discover that one anagram of ''Thaksin Shinawatra'' is: ''Ah! A stink. Warn Thais.''All along, this whiff of a prophecy has been right under our very noses.

JOHN SHEPHERD

I don't get into the center of town much, but today I decided to drop by Pinky's for a bite to eat. It seemed to me that there were more tourists about than at anytime I can recall in these past two years. Looks like a good start to the season. Good fortune to all our merchants.

We still remain in the relative volume vacuum (horizontal bars) and that usually allows price to keep moving (up in this case). Got some long thin candles from Sept. '08 at this price area and they coud burn quickly.

That said, I bought puts today ($SPX options). I don't know if anyone remembers this inverted chart?

I fail to see the importance of your MA's on your chart when ONE simple trendline can shoe the same but far more accurate. MA's Lag.

No offence.

None taken. As Herr Naam says "there's no need to discuss the brushstroke blah, blah...."

Anyhow the chart is a static view that tries to approximate my live charts containing programmed algorithms. The algorithms give an adaptive presentation which subsumes trendlines, fibs, pivots, etc., making them superfluous. I hope I'm not being patronising if I suggest you do a seach of least means squares.

What I use doesn't lag, it leads. It doesn't work all the time, but then what does?

Can somebody explain this?

White House Aims to Cut Deficit With TARP Cash

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125799009185344567.html

Hang on here, now I thought that the TARP stuff was non-existing money that was conjured into existence to remove "overpriced liabilities" from the banks' balance sheets and shove them up the tax payers ever expanding rectum. Now it seems that this has turned into a real budget which can be spent to pay down the government created debt.

Amazing, this QE business.

So why don't they just create another few trillion and pay off all the debt? Surely the logical step.

It's like when you get a new credit card that you use for a cash advance to pay off your old credit card debt. Makes perfect sense to a certain kind of person.

Last time I was at Kad Farang in Hang Dong there was an export shop that had set up in the parking lot. Don't know if it's still there. That was a month ago.

S&P Makes High Ratings ‘More Difficult’ to Receive

By DIANA GOLOBAY

November 4, 2009 10:58 AM CST

Recent changes among ratings criteria at Standard & Poor’s represent “significant” repercussions for collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), according to the ratings agency.

The changes will make high ratings on securities in sectors troubled by poor credit performance “more difficult” to receive, S&P said. The changes aim to enhance the comparability of ratings on these securities with ratings on credits in other sectors.

The ratings agency also updated the corporate CDO criteria to add both qualitative and quantitative tests to a default simulation model already in place. The model addresses the loans or bonds backing a CDO from a mathematical framework, calculating probably behaviors and statistics. The tests added to the model addresses the “model risk” inherent in a probability-based model, S&P said.

“In addition, we recalibrated the simulation model to achieve stresses based on Depression-era experience,” S&P added. “The calibration method that we used makes it easier and more transparent for investors to understand our ratings and to relate them to their investment objectives.”

http://www.housingwire.com/2009/11/04/sp-m...ult-to-receive/

Who knows but as Most analysts are now saying, throw out the rule book why buck the trend........for now, only for now..

Very true. However, I see this as rather worrying. Great analysis eh? Usually it is a pointer that things are pretty near their top.

Markets looked better a couple of months ago when most analysts were expecting a pull back.

It's almost never different this time.

Price likes to test areas of great transactional volume. A relative "volume vacuum" exists in this price range.

We still remain in the relative volume vacuum (horizontal bars) and that usually allows price to keep moving (up in this case). Got some long thin candles from Sept. '08 at this price area and they coud burn quickly.

That said, I bought puts today ($SPX options). I don't know if anyone remembers this inverted chart?

the proceeds of which enables me to feed my dogs with something better than regular dog food. they are now out for a walk but in 45 minutes they expect their evening treat which today is two shrimps, a tiny piece of gruyère and a slice of Nürnberger Rostbratwurst.

Woof!

No prob I was responding to Namm though with the rose colored remark. Based on his naming me in his conspiracy theory remark.

i never make rose coloured remarks Flying. it is correct that you don't belong to the resident "conspirators" and i was wrong in this respect. but the reference to you applies broadly as your focus is on the headcount of shitty and superfluous banks which went belly-up in the Greatest Nation on Earth™, thereby indirectly extrapolating that green shoots in other economic areas do not exist. this is my impression, correct me if i am wrong.

something similar applies to the other "negators" who don't seem to realise that their gloom&doom attitude prevented them to exploit investment opportunities which only happen once in a decade. well... to each his own

Yes this is a problem with internet forums........Things get confused.

I said I made the rose colored remark when responding to you

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Stock-Market...71#entry3129471

You can categorize me in any group you see fit. Although like I said I just base my outlook on what I see & hear first hand here.

As for focus is on the headcount of shitty and superfluous banks

I Don't think they are shitty or superfluous nor do I focus on them. They are just 1 of many things going on here that give a view of the whole. You know last week with the 9 banks?... represented 153 branches. That adds to the UE puzzle a bit eh? Also remember waaay back when this all started I was all for letting a few banks fail but they were deemed the too big too fail. Also yes your impression that I think any greenshoots are weeds at this point & a misrepresentation of the bigger picture. But I have also always said the casino is open & doing well. So yes exploit away as you say. I personally have not missed oppotinities this year. Perhaps they are just in a different vehicle/viewpoint

Anybody with enough cash available, that invests in an asset class they understand well (when it's on sale), is going to prosper, no matter whether equities are in a Bull or Bear market.

Speaking for myself, I could not invest in micro caps in an illiquid market on a momo basis. I am constitutionally incapable of buying any kind of "subordinated" instrument. In fact I've gone to great pains in the ppast to take out superior lien holders so I wouldn't have to. Those that understand these things deeply can do very well, but that isn't me. I employ methods many coudn't or wouldn't do, but it works for me, in any kind of market. Everyone's got a different skill set and comfort level.

So, as the bars are not subject to currency restrictions, the question remains, if purchased outside the US, is duty levied, and if so at what rate?

No prob I was responding to Namm though with the rose colored remark. Based on his naming me in his conspiracy theory remark.

i never make rose coloured remarks Flying. it is correct that you don't belong to the resident "conspirators" and i was wrong in this respect. but the reference to you applies broadly as your focus is on the headcount of shitty and superfluous banks which went belly-up in the Greatest Nation on Earth™, thereby indirectly extrapolating that green shoots in other economic areas do not exist. this is my impression, correct me if i am wrong.

something similar applies to the other "negators" who don't seem to realise that their gloom&doom attitude prevented them to exploit investment opportunities which only happen once in a decade. well... to each his own

As a scientist you will know that everything that goes up ( especially if its only up based on unadulterated bullshit and lies - eg last weeks unemployment figures )

must inevitably come down so please explain why exploiting the " investment opportunities which only happen once in a decade " wont be equally as profitable

on the way down

Maybe things won't go down in the same fashion as last year. Markets can go sideways for years and years (which is effectively going down). Last year was not the worst a bear market can be by a long shot. For a trader (not necessarily an investor) sideways is the worst.

Maybe they could put a billboard up at the airport stating "This Country is Red" like the bumper stickers. Get a monk to preside and save some tax money.

Nice job. I'll be getting one before all the news goes to all electronic sources, which can be modified or deleted at any time.

These are just some pics of girls that I have interacted with on Thailovelinks.

It is really not a very nice thing to post peoples pictures on the internet without their permission. It's untrustworthy conduct.

Technology does away with history. A few keystrokes and the reality changes. It's happening slower than Orwell thought, but faster than Bradbury and Huxley imagined.

"All media exist to invest our lives with artificial perceptions and arbitrary values. "

"As technology advances, it reverses the characteristics of every situation again and again. The age of automation is going to be the age of 'do it yourself."

"It is the framework which changes with each new technology and not just the picture within the frame. "

"One of the effects of living with electric information is that we live habitually in a state of information overload. There's always more than you can cope with. "

Marshall McLuhan

I know you're a Dow man.

Thanks for that my chart shows exactly the same

That's odd, because you keep saying the Dow hasn't broken its uptrend line, which the chart shows it has. Unless you're using linear charts and I don't know any traders using those.

Hey lanaberth, would you mind posting an updated chart of the dow please? last time you had one up within 2 minutes of me mentioning it. Think it may take a bit longer this time

It's the same chart. I have dozens filed that are self updating:

I'm happy to justify the comment. Let's start with a couple of links.

Contrast what the fashion industry is giving us, and what men vote for.

No your deluding yourself GH..... Nothing at all that could be misconstued as a 'Gay Aesthetic"

And the argument, unless you've missed it, is Gay men dominate the fashion industry and dictate the 'Gay Aesthetic' that we see as skinny, adolescent boyish women.

Maybe it's not related to the OP, but I've got to agree with Guesthouse on this one. No one ever talks about it here but the average Thai woman sought by western "sexpats" here, has the body of an 11 year old western boy in probably the most androgenous socirty on Earth. Creepy

It's like in one of those Bond movies where the arch criminal has the upperhand, but feels he must take an extra moment to savor the champions demise. They never see it coming. Time to roll credits.

A little something to get Zorro dribbling.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SvI3...uniorminers.jpg

(Although it's a jpeg, for some reason it won't upload as a picture.) If someone can put it up I'd be grateful. It startled me.

Regards.

In addition to the before and after prices for the penny miners, you need a "and then after that" price. You know what Twain said, "a gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing in front of it".

Abrak, Im not predicted anything, I simply look at the chart as a snapshot as of yesterday to tell me where I am. forecasting I can get from a fortune teller on sukhumvit, tea leaves or historical charts but not one of those will provide me with anything except a possibility. Fridays chart shows reality. Tell me something, are you aware that all 81 economists providing annalist for the jobs figure Friday got it wrong.? not 1 or 2 but all of them! Midas was closest to the pin but forecast a 1000 pt drop. Bloomberg I watched live as the numbers were released, and the w ords were Shocking, devastating, major set back, futures tumbling blah blah blah. And then the dow finishes green. If these people cant get it right what hope do T.V annalists have

I know you're a Dow man.

Thanks for that my chart shows exactly the same

That's odd, because you keep saying the Dow hasn't broken its uptrend line, which the chart shows it has. Unless you're using linear charts and I don't know any traders using those.

Abrak, Im not predicted anything, I simply look at the chart as a snapshot as of yesterday to tell me where I am. forecasting I can get from a fortune teller on sukhumvit, tea leaves or historical charts but not one of those will provide me with anything except a possibility. Fridays chart shows reality. Tell me something, are you aware that all 81 economists providing annalist for the jobs figure Friday got it wrong.? not 1 or 2 but all of them! Midas was closest to the pin but forecast a 1000 pt drop. Bloomberg I watched live as the numbers were released, and the w ords were Shocking, devastating, major set back, futures tumbling blah blah blah. And then the dow finishes green. If these people cant get it right what hope do T.V annalists have

I know you're a Dow man.