lannarebirth

Caf, you are right, you didn't say that everything she said was a lie, you said - don't believe everything she said. I misread it as anything.

Anyhow Sao Jiang Mai, I think I detect a slight change in your editorial policy and I wish to congratulate and encourage you. Heretofore you've always stuck to pretty "safe" subjects that would not draw the ire of any native constituencies. Though the questions were pretty tame, this interview and your upcoming Group 51 interview seem to be a step in the right direction in making your periodical more relevant to expats living here and not just tourists.

I seldom get the month right and sometimes even the year, so good for you for knowing your weekdays.

Whatever became of that Thaksin proposal to give 100,000 rai in Chiang Rai to the Chinese? I think it was approved but haven't heard much since.

Ah, the 3rd article answers my question:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion...fore-retirement

Whatever became of that Thaksin proposal to give 100,000 rai in Chiang Rai to the Chinese? I think it was approved but haven't heard much since.

Have guests in town. Can anyone tell me where I can take them tonight where we might here some blues?

Chais blues - he has a website.

Thurs-Sun unfortunately. Some jazzy group filling in tonight. Boy not playing anywhere? Thanks.

Have guests in town. Can anyone tell me where I can take them tonight where we might here some blues?

except, contrary to the expectations of pure bred goldbugs, gold has been going NOWHERE since 1½ years

And where the hel_l has anything else gone in the last 1.5 years ? stocks ? houses ? Gold is the ONLY thing holding value right now and you don't even know it.

i leave the knowledge about gold to you and limit my knowledge to the fact that my portefolio YTD is +44.92% (by investing 24% of my depot value in financial subordinates most of which tripled in value). realised about 60% of the profits but too early as these assets still ROCK

One nice thing about the internet is that everyone can claim that they invested 100% during the March lows. Yeah right.

Your nominal gains are only the result of the dollar losing value, why do you think that the USD also happens to be hitting YTD lows ?

If you think gold means nothing then go invest in the Zimbabwe stock market, you will have allot higher nominal gains then 44%.

One thing about the internet is, you can call someone a liar and not get punched in the nose. I have seen Dr. Naam's statements and it is just as he says. Forgive me Herr Doktor if I betrayed a confidence.

Perhaps some British people out there remember the show Yes Minister and the episode "The Whisky Priest" where the whole arms trade issue was examined with good insight and (of course) excellent humour.

In sum, the arms trade is a political issue rather than a moral or legal one, and that is how this case will be handled throughout.

Learned that on a sit-com did ya?

There is absolutely nothing wrong with selling arms.

If it was, let's drag US, UK, Germany, Russia, China, and a whole lot more countries infront of an international court and convict all the politicians approving it.

Seeing it happen yet?

I agree 100% weapons are money and jobs.

Anyone here know the movie LORD OF WAR with Nicolas Cage? watch it, its nearly true. Americans dont sale weapons in conflict areas?...what a bull.....

I bet, one can sale and buy everything if he knows the right people.....

Possibly the worst movie I have seen in the past 10 years. Not a movie critic are you? I mean it was just a dreadful piece of work.

Update:

US 'disappointed and mystified' by Bout ruling: diploma

BANGKOK: -- The United States is "disappointed and mystified" by a Thai court's decision to reject a request for the extradition of Russian alleged arms dealer Viktor Bout, a senior US diplomat said Tuesday.

"We are disappointed and mystified by the court's ruling. We think the facts of the case are relevant to Thai laws," James Entwistle, the deputy chief of mission at the US embassy in Bangkok, told reporters.

The court said that it did not have the authority to punish "actions done by foreigners against other foreigners in another country."

-- AFP 2009-08-11

If the court was quoted correctly, then presumably no one would ever be extradited for anything. Curious.

Nothing really got started today, can't expect to much after two huge dys, last friday and monday.

Ended up plus 79.

Still have a few going, but just quite. Part of trading, SOMETIMES the BEST TRADE you can do is NO TRADE

The most valuable piece of advice I've seen offered on this blog so far.

To be honest, I think these news releases serve only one purpose and that is to keep foreigners scared enough to keep a bid under the condo market.

Fly Just kidding, just asking what have to happen when the American people finally step up.

You peeps are getting frogged big time, when do you step up?

Take care na, it not funny to see what is happening in your country.

Alex

And Alex what you dont realize is that they are never going to stand up...

You can sell an invasion of Iraq on WMD and when there arent any you can sell the invasion anyway.

If people have overspent in the past you can sell that they should save for the future.

I remember a US congressman making the comment that to the extent we have made mistakes in the past we will simply sell it as a good policy for your future.

Look the government bailed out Goldmans in the same year that they will pay record bonuses. And, in reality, no one gives a toss.

So noones going to step up at all. 100 years ago Paris Hilton would be despised and first in line for the guillotine. Now I suspect she may well be on the short list for a Nobel prize.

They're going for the self cannibalization dollar. See Bill Hicks "Marketing" on YouTube.

Old thread on this topic. Perhaps not of much help but worth a look:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Dinghy-Help-...tml&hl=boat

I am not sure if I mentioned this here before nor not?

But, Many folks are surprised by the method the US calculates Unemployment rate with.

Most seem to think they just look at how many are on Unemployment benefits. Many say that is not accurate because they do not count those who are either not on or not qualified to receive benefits

But that does not matter since that is not how they calculate Unemployment Rate at all.

Surprisingly here in the USA all they do is poll 60k households. Then base that as a percentage against population numbers. Really accurate eh? Considering in 2008 there was an estimated 114.5 million households in America.

So 1%...just 1% of households equals 1,145,000 households.

They poll 60k households to get an important number like the Unemployment Rate?

They poll less households to find the Unemployment Rate than the Nielsen Ratings poll to see what TV programs folks like best?

No - I didn't know this before flying.

Yes I am surprised that the country that invented the computer and the internet are using these primative methods. How do they justify doing this ?

What would stop them from giving a full breakdown of all categories ( i.e. not on or not qualified to receive benefits ) – or would that be too transparent ?

Transparency is not to be wished for. Inflation is, but in a way that does not appear to be inflation. Too much of US budget is tied to COLA's and more and more of its public debt is inflation adjusted. Seems to me they've painted themselves into a corner which they'll have to lie their way out of.

Maybe he doesn't understand that there is a difference between fundamental and technical analysis?

Or maybe he does. Maybe he also understands that this is a forum about Thailand. Furthermore, he may understand that the TV moderators have more or less looked the other way while we discuss economic, currency and market issues unrelated to Thailand as perhaps one might be able to draw the conclusion it is somehow tangentially related or correlated to some degree. That seems to work when speaking in broad terms.

What he doesn't understand is, if people just want to tout trades, why they wouldn't do that at a forum created for that purpose. He also worries that people not skilled in trading might execute trades based on what they read here and lose money.

I'm not denigrating the quality of the information presented here, as I haven't evaluated it. I'm sure you'd agree however that one can be right and still lose money. I'm sure you'd also agree that if one follows anothers reasoning for getting in a trade they may not be equipped to know when they should no longer be in that trade.

BTW another conspiracy theory.

Does anyone get the feeling that the numbers coming out are either false or fudged, Because they just dont add up.

For instance one thing you learn in your first year of economics is that a fall in GDP of 2.5% of GDP from potential leads to a 1% rise in unemployment (it used to be 3% but Bernanke revised the equation). So assuming GDP decline of 1.0% this year unemployment should rise 1.4%. But in the first six months it has already risen 2%.m Now this optimistically assumes the US economy has a NAIRU of 2.5% which given there was no growth from 2000 to 2006 without MEW is stretching it a bit.

Unemployment numbers or decline in employment seem to indicate a much greater decline than is being admitted. Capacity utilization and production output would see to indicate the same. Obviously consumer spending could have risen rapidly but where are the loan growth numbers.

And thusly a website was born:

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Even if he tries AGAIN and AGAIN to foment violent revolution attempts? I agree if he was a normal man, rather than what he is which is massively deviant, make a deal and let it be. He will not accept let it be. What is the government supposed to do with a loose cannon like that, just bend over?

Well my assumption is the opposite. He gets attention because people hate him or like him. Just ignore him and he will fade from view. You call him a loose cannon but what can he do? He is more of a loose water pistol. His supporters will find someone else to have faith in. Those who dislike him will forget the reasons why. When you hear he is going to make some public speech somewhere, I doubt you are the slightest bit interested.

He will become irrelevant and people will lose interest.

Some while back there was a thread here about the two global PR firms Thaksin had retained to keep his name in the news and to make sure publications wrote articles about him with the correct "spin". A quick perusal of the last 50 threads concerning Thaksin will show i think a lot of "made up" news items which only serve to keep his name in the news. As you say, if not for this effort he would quickly become irrelevant. Maybe after his assets case is decided he'll let up, but I doubt it.

I just perused the forum as I do every month. Please, somebody tell me how the forum has become a USA bashing and conspiracy theory hot bed. Can't rational minds prevail or is the forum a lost cause for those interested in sane debates. For the love of God, why do a few of the intelligent posters still try to contribute when their arguments have no chance of penetrating the "THICK" cranial bones of many forum contributors.

Oh well, I guess without small minded complainers it would be more challenging to be successful.

Well, it's made itself a pretty easy target hasn't it? One reads that the banking executive elite is helping formulate national financial policy. I see the insurance and pharmaceutical companies are crafting Americas new health care policy. One wonders if the KKK might be called in to draft civil rights legislation or Beavis and Butthead will lead a Blue Ribbon panel to overhaul the education system.

abrak start your own thread,as pca said this is for traders,and as you have rightly said what your posts are useless to traders who use t/a.see you,have a nice day

One thing you might consider. If the thread were solely for the benefit of traders and is devoid of fundamental or other economic considerations, it wouldn't belong in this forum at all. Plenty of trading forums.

Didn't know you could play the fiddle Alex?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=ahpXdVdVDYCo

The Baltic dry index is on it's way down again? -17.2% last week. 35% down on 2009 highs.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...mand-slows.html

Regards.

The Baltic Dry Index sort of fascinates me because I cant see how it is that correlated to much.

Employment participation in the US peaked in December 2006, the market about October 2007. The Baltic index (which I would have thought would be a lead indicator) peaked mid 2008 which would seem very late.

My guess is that the reason for this is that it is more related to emerging market (India and China) growth than the US and their slowdown came much later. As I say I dont how to read it but I guess if there was any conviction in a sustainable global economic recovery, you would expect rates to have recovered far more.

You can view some $BDI correlations and non-correlations here:

http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi...c_dry_index.htm

I note a triple bottom breakdown on its weekly P&F chart the other day. It looks to lead the $SSEC on LT weekly charts.

In reality, behind the scenes of many businesses in Thailand, there are Farang owners or shadow partners.

These can include massage parlours, bars, prostitution, restaurants, bookshops, Internet cafes, antiques, religious artefacts, property buying, selling, renting and the growing of foods i.e. livestock, meat products, fruit and vegetables.

I once met an American guy here in Chiang Mai who boasts earning 5 million baht a year from his lum yai lands.

The authorties are aware of the facts, but these people are difficult to identify as they use Thai associates or Thai family connections as front persons for the operation of their companies and often protected by the employees who wish to keep their jobs.

The Thai authorities if concerned about these illegal activities, could impose more severe punishments including mandatory prison sentences and fines, followed by deportation, plus mandatory prison sentences to Thais who become fronts for these businesses.

Or perhaps offer rewards to those who inform the police that lead to the conviction of the Farang lawbreakers. The funds for the rewards being obtained from the Farang criminals as part of the fines.

I for one would be more than pleased to assist the police with these matters, as I am not keen on Farang criminals gaining footholds on businesses here and especially if there were real punishment encouragements to help them cease and desist, plus a reward on offer that would ensure many more witnesses would come forward, meaning these criminals would not be able to rely on anyone to help protect their interests.

You missed the most obvious issue. What fundamentally would be bad about foreigners entering the agricultural sector in Thailand?

The most obvious thing I noted, was that there was a one hour and twenty minute time difference between the time I received the email from TV concerning Thai authorities initiating an investigation into foreign land ownership and the new thread stating that it has been found that no foreigner is violating the law. The rest is just blah blah.

Devil's advocate. What if everything we know is wrong....???

A lot of what gets passed on as fact remains theoretical. For instance, all of the greater than 4 dimension theories. Great book I read recently on the state of physics over these past 30 years:

http://www.amazon.com/Trouble-Physics-Stri...e/dp/0618551050

The big one, umeployment numbers just out . Better than expected , futures just jumped 80+ on the spot, will be a clear run to 10,0000 on the Dow now probably followed by a heavy sell off. All looking good short to medium term for holders

10 Day Open TRIN says a lot of energy expended getting here. We'll see.

During the governments' persecution of European Anabaptists, Baltasar Hubmaier was tortured, and forced to recant his faith. They brought him to court to make it public and he recanted his recantation!

The government need not force its citizens to recant. Just reject the petition as improper.

Johnny Carson used to say of his audience "if they buy the premise then they'll buy the bit". The premise that the citizenry should petition the King and that he should respond is, to my knowledge unprecedented. That Thaksin then raises questions about interference in this "process", which is not legitimate to begin with, lends his self-manufactured "process" an air of legitimacy which it does not posess. Whatever he's paying his PR team to keep him in the news; he's getting a good return on his investment.