lannarebirth

Maybe this is a silly question but why would someone lower a 4WD truck? Especially a Chev/Isuzu which doesn't have that much ground clearance to begin with. Thanks

They would like to supress prices - perhaps they can .

CFTC to investigate 'artificial inflation' of ETFs 25th August 2009

A leading US regulatory body is set to probe the role of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the suspected artificial inflation of oil, natural gas and gold prices, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday (22nd August).

ETFs have become increasingly popular with small investors since their introduction at the advent of the commodity prices boom in 2003 because of their ability to provide direct exposure to commodity futures.

Figures from the National Stock Exchange suggest that they held a huge $59.3 billion in assets as of July 2009, with about $22.1 billion being ploughed into them already this year.

However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is now set to explore activity in ETFs, which effectively involve making one-way bets, generally on particular prices increasing.

Although critics are suggesting that the move will eventually eliminate small investors and make the funds the preserve of the top financial companies, the CFTC has rejected those claims.

"The commission has never said 'You aren't tall enough to ride'," said Commissioner Bart Chilton in an email quoted by the news provider.

"I don't want to limit liquidity, but above all else, I want to ensure that prices for consumers are fair and that there is no manipulation - intentional or otherwise."

Nevertheless, placing restrictions on the size of ETFs will see investors' expenses increased, largely because this will require legal and operational costs to be split between fewer shares.

The news comes as ETF Securities, one of the leading operators of the funds, revealed that it launched five new ETFs on its Tokyo Stock Exchange debut on Monday, Reuters reports.

With its Physical Gold, Physical Silver, Physical Platinum, Physical Palladium and Physical PM Basket ETFs, the London-based firm is aiming to manage $1 billion in assets in Japan by the end of next year.

Hector McNeil, the company's Global Head of Sales and Marketing, told the news provider: "Certainly, we would want to become the leading provider of ETFs in the Asian region. That's our ultimate aim and objective.

"The great thing about Asia is that nobody has really established dominance and footprint … so we feel it's actually the place where the opportunity is."

Meanwhile, ETF Securities also confirmed on Monday that the amount of metal it holds to back its palladium product reached a record high at the end of last week, according to Reuters.

The ETFS Physical Palladium security hit a figure of 376,883 oz on 20th August after increasing by more than 100 oz from the previous day.

http://www.platinum.matthey.com/media_room...s_19328669.html

Ther great thing about derivatives is, from a prop. desk and hedge fund POV is, you can get short/long the thing you're about to buy/dump without having the market move against you very much. The other good thing is you can move small markets for very little investment.

Well lannarebirth, a couple of sayings sprang to mind:

"markets tend to go where you think they'll go, but not when you think they'll go"

and

"markets are slower than you think"

True, but in ths case a little faster than I had hoped. We'll see.

My market guru newsletter plans remain on hold for now.

This paper is only for the hard core,

http://cedar.barnard.columbia.edu/faculty/...%20Response.pdf

it delves into the complex world of financial engineering and the author concludes that the pricing of risk, or the cost of insuring that risk was too low, and not that the securitization of debt was the real issue.

But the point I would like to make is that the simple financial transaction of taking out a loan and paying it back has been bloated up into a huge complex web of opaque instruments, with, as far as I can see, the sole object of generating a bit of extra profit at somebody else's expense. It has turned into a huge game of "pass the parcel", only instead of the parcel being unwrapped at every turn, it was wrapped up in more mystery and complexity until the last person holding it is the tax payer, who haven't a dam_n clue why they are now suffering.

Surely the solution is not to make the whole thing more complicated, but to reduce the level of complexity to a transparent level? A return to simple loans and mortgages, which could be individually insured against default. The overly "clever" guys at the banks should be sacked and sent back to university or maybe industry, where their talents could be put to much more productive use.

He concludes

I have been suggesting that, if securitization is the problem, then insurance is the answer. The financial system did insurance wrong during the runup, and as a consequence we got an unsustainable boom and a nearly unstoppable freefall when the bubble burst. But if we do insurance right, we can make securitization work. Doing insurance right will involve the government going into the insurance business.

This, IMO, is totally wrong. There are very few people who understand the development of the financial markets, in particular the "financial engineering". How is the government expected to be able to price complex insurance when it can't even balance income versus expenditure?

It is worth recalling how the system was supposed to work, which involves recalling why the government did not prevent but rather encouraged the development of this system. The whole point of the 1988 Basel Accord, which introduced risk-weighted capital requirements (updated in 2004 as Basel II), was to regulate risk-taking by banks. On-balance sheet risk absorbed regulatory capital charges, but off-balance sheet risk did not. Eventually, as Glass-Steagall was relaxed, banks could originate any kind of business they wanted; capital controls only determined where that business was ultimately booked. The regulatory authorities apparently hoped that credit risk would be held by deep pockets elsewhere in the economy, namely pension and insurance companies.

Well, the deep pockets are now not so deep.

I agree with your opinion. You cannot insure speculators, but speculators can create hedges for their investments. The illusion of insurance was what caused the 1987 stock market crash and clearly contributed to this latest fiasco as well.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14276.htm

For the tech types

I'm not saying the author is drawing the wrong conclusion but I would make a couple of points. He starts with a technical premise and justifies it with a fundamental argument. That is inconsistant methodology in my view and smells of heavy bias. Again, I'm not saying he may not be correct in the end.

The other thing that strikes me is that $GOLD:$XEU chart. It's a parabolic breakout chart. It may have another leg up in its parabolic move but rest assured it will retrace 100% to 2004 levels at some point. Whether Gold or the Euro is the winner there I can't say, but I have a hunch.

tell us... or else!

Like every other market it all depends on what the $USD does. My theory based on a methodology I don't fully understand (Hurst Cycles) has the $USD bottoming near late September. The fact that the Euro and Gold look like they want to move sooner aggravates me and my perhaps bogus theory. 5 weeks is a long time if $ selling gets started in earnest, at this time I'm still execting last years low to hold but honestly that's just wishful thinking.

If all that sounds confusing it's because it is confusing and I don't have much confidence in any of it. That's why I haven't presented a view before now. Maybe things will look clearer in a few weeks, but I'm not too confidant of that either.

Even for a bull this is getting ridiculous, Dow up 130 . On what news??? futures were down 66 this afternoon. Clearly a transfer of wealth occurring so back to my favorite boring non chartists view, The TREND is your friend. Have a good weekend all

Some would agree & think things are over valued.

Today's chart illustrates how the recent plunge in earnings has impacted the current valuation of the stock market as measured by the price to earnings ratio (PE ratio). Generally speaking, when the PE ratio is high, stocks are considered to be expensive. When the PE ratio is low, stocks are considered to be inexpensive. From 1936 into the late 1980s, the PE ratio tended to peak in the low 20s (red line) and trough somewhere around seven (green line). The price investors were willing to pay for a dollar of earnings increased during the dot-com boom (late 1990s) and the dot-com bust (early 2000s). As a result of the recent plunge in earnings and recent stock market rally, the PE ratio spiked and just peaked at 144 – a record high. Currently, with 97% of US corporations having reported for Q2 2009, the PE ratio now stands at a lofty 129.

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090821.htm?T

The chart does look a little screwy for a reason. Financial earnings in 4Q 2008 were so bad that the S&P500 earnings for the quarter were something like -US$23. This clearly decimated any annual earnings figure. The PE will obviously come down when the next 4Q earnings are reported.

Still if you look at say a long term earnings trend a 10 year moving average of earnings, this currently stands at 54 (and is declining). That puts the market on 19x, well above its average of about 15.5x.

Are you using Operating, As Reported, or Core Earnings in your examples? TIA

Consider another gift for your friend and toss the phone in the bin. I don't recommend contacting the vendor as it may spoil your otherwise happy memories of your vacation in Thailand.

Cha Am is starting to be discovered. I found it by accident a couple of years ago. Driving through the main road it is not at all impressive but once you get off the main drag and down toward the beach it is quite nice. The beach is long and clean (Not talking the main city beach now). Several very nice 4 and 5 star resorts have gone in and people that stay in them discover the area.

Selfishly I would like to see it stay just the way it is now, but unfortunately it's just a matter of time until it becomes overbuilt like Phuket, Samui and Pattaya and lets not forget Hua Hin which is having a hard time making the infrastructure keep up with the development.

Being close to BKK (2hrs+ -) and having a lot of thais spend weekends and holidays in Cha Am makes it popularity grow.

Patinbkk nice to hear about Burger King, they should do well.

I just spent a week in Cha-Am at what I thought was a very high quality condotel (if a little dated). I was the only occupant of the whole place which I loved. ChaAm was like a ghost town as far as tourists were concerned, but I'm not sure what the normal level is. Anyhow, I like the vibe there loads better than Hua Hin.

Thats very peculiar becauase any day of the week but especially the weekends you can walk/drive along Cha am beach from anytime in the morning to late evening and it is very busy.......you mention 'Condotel'....that place and many other condos although come under Cha am isnt actually in the main part of Cha am so you were probably based somewhere further along the coast nearer Bang Kwai which is like a ghost town...pleased you enjoyed your stay though

We didn't stay at the Condotel, though my wife's friend had booked us there. My wife found it unacceptable so we stayed at a Ploeng Talay 3 Br unit, which I must say was very nice. That must have been a very high end development in its day. Quality materials throughout; at least in my unit.

Yes, I know it's not in the main part of town. That was its appeal.

Cha Am is starting to be discovered. I found it by accident a couple of years ago. Driving through the main road it is not at all impressive but once you get off the main drag and down toward the beach it is quite nice. The beach is long and clean (Not talking the main city beach now). Several very nice 4 and 5 star resorts have gone in and people that stay in them discover the area.

Selfishly I would like to see it stay just the way it is now, but unfortunately it's just a matter of time until it becomes overbuilt like Phuket, Samui and Pattaya and lets not forget Hua Hin which is having a hard time making the infrastructure keep up with the development.

Being close to BKK (2hrs+ -) and having a lot of thais spend weekends and holidays in Cha Am makes it popularity grow.

Patinbkk nice to hear about Burger King, they should do well.

I just spent a week in Cha-Am at what I thought was a very high quality condotel (if a little dated). I was the only occupant of the whole place which I loved. ChaAm was like a ghost town as far as tourists were concerned, but I'm not sure what the normal level is. Anyhow, I like the vibe there loads better than Hua Hin.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14276.htm

For the tech types

I'm not saying the author is drawing the wrong conclusion but I would make a couple of points. He starts with a technical premise and justifies it with a fundamental argument. That is inconsistant methodology in my view and smells of heavy bias. Again, I'm not saying he may not be correct in the end.

The other thing that strikes me is that $GOLD:$XEU chart. It's a parabolic breakout chart. It may have another leg up in its parabolic move but rest assured it will retrace 100% to 2004 levels at some point. Whether Gold or the Euro is the winner there I can't say, but I have a hunch.

Chiang Mai is easier to drive in than Chiangrai

Wrong way round harry!lol

No, I think he's got it right and it's really my only knock on Chiang Rai, which I enjoy very much otherwise. Those traffic lights everywhere, geezus!

Abrak, PCA... Gentlemen! why don't you just agree to disagree? personally i abhor both your investment styles and stick to my own but admit that each of our completely different approaches can/may/will or has already lead to success. and success is the only thing that counts.

You're all wrong, and right too as everyone's approach is different. Different approaches can work.

Personally I know of at least 25 different ways to make money trading (and just as many to lose money) Speaking for myself I would NEVER "invest" in equities while proforma accounting methods are used for reported earnings. Nor would I when significant capital appreciation is required to earn a good return. Nor when every other f'in person is doing m/l the same thing. That said, trading can allow one to make far in excess of their expenses each year and one can certainly invest that money wherever they choose and feel more comfortable. while I don't have the patience to wait for a stock to rise LT I don't lose a bit of sleep having paid for land that costs little in expenses to own. Some of it brings me income, some doesn't.

In my case I equate equities with the selling of magic beans and as a trader I only care which way the colored line moves and don't want to know a thing about the underlying.

"Taiwan Restaurant" on Huay Kaew Rd across from the Shell station does dumplings, both fried and steamed. They're on the smallish side but at 60 baht for a dozen, they're not bad.

Otherwise my two favorite Chinese restaurants are Jia Tong Heng and the Yunanese restaurant on Ratchamanka Rd.

Yes, smaller since the wife took over. The best Chinese style noodles I've had outside China can be found there as well. That dish is porrly translated to "noodles in "something" ketchup". delicious though.

Best Picture material? No way.

I'll take that bet.

OK, maybe it won't win it, but it will definitely be nominated.

Also the German actor Christoph Waltz for his portrayal of Landa the Jew Hunter will win an acting award. Brat Pitt won't.

Actually, I agree with all that. The portrayal of Landa was a stellar performance. I thought the girl was very good too, and gorgeous.

these bikes have been outside the park for months tied up and covered in plastic sheets.

the floor frames are bolted to the floor, the bikes are bolted to the frames and a belt goes from the back wheel to what looks like a pump

yesterday they uncovered them but what do you think they are for or their purpose ?

all answers on a postcard to po box xxx keynsham bristol ( english joke )

dave2

dave,dave is that you, dave...

Dave's not here.

This topic pretty much ties in with what I have been reading here:

Moneyweek

Unfortunately the article that tells you how to beat the bank's saving rate is locked

Anyone have subscription

On the main page it mentions lithium as a new energy source, so good to watch and also

mentions ThaiBev as a stock to watch. Maybe time for a dabble in those.

Anyone know what kind of dividend ThaiBev is paying?

5.84%

http://thaibev.listedcompany.com/stock_fundamentals.html

I've been doing some casual studying of the stock market,books etc.I've pretty much realised that its quite easy to pick stocks that would be the most likely to rise or fall,long or short,with regards to short term trends.Just a case of bottom up screens & then checking that these stocks are in the top performing industries for % returns (top down).You are just doing a set of procedures with this from any good book on trading (longer than a day).

The hard part,in my non expert opinion is timing your trades to the direction of the market,& this has made me think about the inadequacy of tech indicators such as moving averages,macd,stochastics,rsi etc,for timing the market,as they work from the past,& as such are too slow to respond & will only work well into a trend.

At the moment the only way i think you can tell which way the indexes will go (along with economic data),is by volume & price action,as its telling you whats happening now,eg if the s&p 500 is rising slowly day by day or week by week on depreciating volume,its likely that a correction could be in order.But thats not taking into account any fundamental news that could force the markets in either direction.I think that support & resistance is important with this along with chart patterns,along with candlestics.

Any thoughts on timing trades to market direction?Also how much other things that affect the stock market such as bond yields & the usd,commodities?I've noticed that recently the s&p 500 seemed to shadow commodities.

That is true what you say about the inadequacy of indicators but a purpose they do serve is to show divergences with price action, both positive and negative.

Example:

What's the problem? The land is i n your girlfriend's name, or will be right? 350,000 Baht? Surely you can come up with a loan document to her parents who gifted her the money, or some such device. It's the price of a used car, how hard can it be?

Also, why the hel_l are YOU going to the land department?

Is that really true that this movie won't be shown in Germany? I find that amazing.

Anyway, I want to share this glowing review, which I agree with:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?...amp;type=movies

If you miss this movie you are really missing something, a mass market movie that is also a work of art. I think it is probably going to win best picture for this year, for whatever that is worth ...

such as when Joseph Goebbels puts out a cigarette in his apple strudel ...

Oops, I got that one wrong. It was the comedic "Nazi hunter" character who used his strudel that way. BTW, the strudel looked really good!

I thought it was very good as a Tarentino vehicle. It had his signature all over it. I did not find it funny, as you did, though many of the characters were able to employ humerous dialogue.

It was not very good as a "war" picture but there were some very good acting performances IMO. Best Picture material? No way.

First of all the, $USD 3% bullish sentiment number that apparently you and EWI came up with simultaneously, undoubtedly through independant means, is bullshit.

I'm not saying you won't pull that number out from somewhere, but when I asked a friend last week (who is a Market Vane subscriber) $USD sentiment stood at 41%.

Nice report Alex. Thanks

Nam Jai in this case I think...

I was speaking of the employee. Anyhow, most Thai people I've met are pretty generous.

If i'd call it generosity i dont know. Could be what you mean though. A few years back my father in law needed a bypass operation. His boss paid all and he got a treatement in a respectable hospital and care he couldnt afford himself.

In my experience he is now loyal to his boss without any restrictions or restraints. I think the guy feels he will always be in debt in some kind of way towards his boss.

Greng Jai

Nam Jai and Boon Koon go hand in hand.

I once had a Thai princess buy me a beautiful silk shirt and later that same day she asked me to "save" her a couple of rai of some mountain land my wife and I have. It's kinda cute. I let the wife handle these matters.

Engineer Mr. Uwe Keienburg worked with/for Vinci Consulting Co., Ltd. - Thailand.

Vinci Consulting seems to be a respectable engineering/infrastructure and consulting company in Thailand:

http://vinciconsulting.net/index2.html

Mr. Uwe Keienburg, part of the 2004 golf-team #19 by GOMACO Corp., a leading US company in concrete paving technology.

http://www.gomaco.com/index.html

LaoPo

Why would anyone want to kill an engineer specialising in the strength of concrete structures? I'm baffled.