'Prediction markets are places where people have money on the line, skin in the game. People don't lie with their money.'
Kalshi, Polymarket and other such platforms have quickly emerged as a way to put money on elections legally and gauge who's ahead, after cycles in which when pollster forecasts crashed and burned.
The opinion polls, which involve asking people how they plan to vote, said then-candidate Hillary Clinton would easily defeat Trump in 2016.
In the end, it was close and the Democrat lost — the polls could not have been more wrong.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/us-politics/article-14011085/man-2024-election-betting-odds-predictor-polls-tarek-mansour.html