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Wrong Turn

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Posts posted by Wrong Turn

  1. For those of you receiving US social security. Starting in January you should receive a 5.8% increase in your benefits... :D:D:D .......Should equate to a few more baht to get along on. I've added the baht bit to make it Thailand related. :o

    I know there are annual COLAS with Social Security, but I didn't know the government calculated inflation rate (and increase for SS) was 5.8%.

    That is a large increase.

    Inflation is that high in the US?

  2. What a difference a year makes.

    Getting paid in $US was a very painfull ecperience last year.

    I would watch the greenback value falling against just about every currency in the world week after week after week.

    Only 3 months ago I was in Australia on holiday and got nearly 1:1 for my $US. Now if I TT'd US$100k over there I would get AUD$150k. Sweet.

    But look at the situation now...

    The pound is in freefall and the euro is a basket case.

    I just love greenback :o The currency all others are measured by.

    I just knew she would climb back to her rightfull spot if we waited long enough.

    God bless America.

    Long live the Allmighty dollar.

    There is a reason for the strengthening of the US dollar right now.

    You need to wait 1 or 2 years.

    Do not make long term assumptions on a currency based upon short term movements.

  3. Last night, I got into this long debate with a close farang friend who thinks primarily in favor of capitalism, Republican presidents and congresses, large and small businesses, etc. He began not by blaming FDR or the war in Vietnam, but with Jimmy Carter, the C0mmunity Reinvestment Act back in the 1970's, and the Clinton administration's insistence that every last bad credit risk must be given a mortgage with no money down.

    There seems to be some "spin" on the CRA Act of the 1970s. This is spin by people who are politically biased.

    There are many different actions by many people that led to the subprime problem. It happened in the 90s and then further in the 2000s.

    The American Dream Down Payment Act of 2003.

    Also, attempts to regulate the mortgage industry was quashed by lobbyists.

    Many players, from both parties in government and many private parties involved.

    In the end, a fixation on the false notion of home-ownership as the "American Dream," and greed caused this from the bottom to the top.

  4. I used to read his column in Smart Money about 15 yrs ago, back when he was just as crazy, but with just a much smaller (but literate) audience.

    The seekingalpha article was illuminating and appreciated.

    The guy's a clown.

    I agree, he's a clown.

    And his job now is too get TV ratings and sell books. Much moreso than giving "advice."

    Cramer has been dead-wrong many times. There are many, many, people sitting in front of their computers on the computer trade sites that buy, hold, sell, the stocks that Jim Cramer gives advice on.

    Cramer is for sheep. And his loud, yelling, fast taking style is very annoying, as well as the bells and whistles he rings by pushing those buttons.

    There are many other analysts to read, and they are much better.

  5. one word . BUY

    Zorro1 and Brit Maverick get it. (Buy reference)

    Don't believe in buying? Research some historical stock charts from 1929, 1974, 1987, 2002.

    The wise investor keeps 3 to 5 years of living expenses in cash; the rest he invests in downturns and harvests in market peaks.

    Not saying I've got it all figured out. But when others are greedy; I am a bit fearful and sell; when otheres are fearful I buy a little.

    Works for me :o

    Wise words. People (with time) need to look at the historical averages of the market.

    This bear, or downward spiral may last longer than others. Or, maybe not.

    But many are waiting for the bottom or near the bottom, to start buying.

  6. Some of the reason for the recent sharp delines in the US market is because the ban on shorting was lifted in Wednesday.

    So, some of the people shorting think that will be further declines in the market.

    There will be a bottom somewhere, and those that buy at or near the bottom and go long can get positive gains, IMO.

    Where this bottom is, I have not idea.

    When it will happen, I have no idea.

    There are many serious problems, as we know.

  7. Can anyone suggest a good site that provides solutions for hairloss problems?

    I take finesteride. About 1 MG per day.

    You can research it. It's available in Thailand. It's for male-pattern baldness, and is sold under different brand names.

  8. I have not heard Pelosi's speech yet, but the right wing hates her with 128 vengences. So how come 33% of House Republicans went ahead and voted for the bailout, and 67% let a hated woman change their vote? What Republican changes his mind on 700 billion dollar bailout of Wall Street because of what Nancy said? Millions of Americans contacted their Congressmen (all 435 of whom stand for election in six weeks) and said NO!

    The Pelosi speech means basically nothing.

    $700 billion does is at stake as well as pork, waste, and corruption.

    There is a good article by an economist who teaches at Harvard who explains that in his opinion the bailout is not good, and it's better not to do it.

    Addendum: here is the link to this article: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/29/mir...ref=mpstoryview

  9. OK, I'm hurting like most of you but prepared to ride the storm.

    Some people are hurting. These are the people that need to draw from their financial market portfolios and/or get dividends.

    My "losses" are only on paper. I have not sold anything. And yes, I bought sizeable amounts in the Summer of 2007, before the start of the declines that started in October 2007.

    I bought then because of timing and visiting the US.

    I am not concerned for the long term.

    The market needs to be cleaned out. Further drops may happen as predicted by Vibe's articles and interview vids from Fabar, Rogers, and Paul.

    Fear is a very strong emotion in the markets. Just like greed and "irrational exuberance."

    And I also add the "sheople" factor. These sheople are people that started jumping into financial investing for the first times in their lives in the 1990s, when it became "cool" and became "easy money."

    That's not the way it works.

    The market needs to go down further, to clean itself out, IMO.

  10. That's the difference between EU and US and I think the mortgage industry in the EU (apart from a country like Spain; but that's another story with another cause) is in a much better shape than the US.

    Mortgages are now hard to get in EU and one has to come up with a real GOOD story and income papers with long job contracts or otherwise....NO mortgage :o

    Another -long forgotten to talk about issue- are CREDIT CARDS (and DEBIT cards) causing debts problems in the US.

    Credit Cards in the US, but also in Australia are in common use, unlike in Europe where the man-in-the-street NEVER uses a credit card. He pays either cash but also mostly with a debit card, knowing he has a FIXED credit amount which is not very much in most cases. It wouldn't be more than 1 or max 2 months salary, depending how high his salary would be of course.

    I read in a report that the average American has 7 Credit Cards :D Unheard of in Europe.

    Personally, I NEVER use a credit card, unless for payments abroad for airline tickets (but also mostly done online, payment per bank) and hotels or meals in more expensive restaurants. Staying in my own country I seldom use a credit card; just sometimes for buying Vitamines......in the US :D

    My payment behavior is the same for about 95% of the population, probably more.

    LaoPo

    Never understood our addiction to credit cards. It's common sense, you would think, that not living within your means ends badly. I understand government borrowing for infrastructure, but individuals are doing it for a flat screen TV.

    Just opened my wallet and counted 7 cards. The count is average, but there is solace in the $0 balances on all 7.

    Credit Cards

    late payments on credit cards have been historically high in the last 2 years, in the US.

    America is a consumer culture. "Shopping is the national pastime." -- an author I've forgotten.

    70% of the US economy is propelled by consumer spending. Credit cards are pushed onto people. The credit card companies study their markets very thoroughly, and target teens and Univeristy students. Statistically, younger people usually stay with their card for many, many, years before changing to another company.

    I too, have 3 credit cards here in Asia. The balance is $0. These are for emergencies. A motorcycle accident, or the need to buy a plane ticket immediately and fly back to the US in case of a family emergency, etc.

    In the US, credit cards are basically given to a dog or a cat. And even if you can't get a CC, you can buy your new big flat-screen TV with the financing at these mega-stores like Best Buy, etc.

    I'm debt free, and happier this way.

  11. Many people are misunderstanding what the Paulson Plan suggests. The term "bailout" is not an accurate term to describe what is being proposed.

    The banks in question have these packaged mortgage products which are now distressed and which are very difficult if not impossible to sell making it nearly impossible for those banks to raise the capital needed to loan money to the average Joe to buy a home, a car, a refrigerator, a college education or whatever. These packaged mortgage products became distressed due to lack of regulation of the banking industry which irresponsibly loaned money to individuals to buy homes they knew they couldn't afford by telling them that home values would continue to increase as they had through the 90's and early 2000's.

    I presume you're talking about the bundled mortgages (CDOs). These mortgages were "securitized."

    A bank take say, 2,000 mortgages, bundles them together as one and sends them to Fannie and/or Freddie where they get a AAA stamp of the highest quality rating. But actuality the rating was far less because of the subprime mortgages in these bundles. Then they are sold, even to a town in Norway.

    This, was fraud, IMO. People should go to prison for this. At best, there may be a couple of fall guys in then that get fined and sent to a golf club penitentiary.

  12. ....it is a private bank run by an unknown group of people which prints the USA's money and charges them interest on it all.

    Yes, the Fed is a private bank.

    No, the Fed does not print money. But it can (we think) tell the Treasury Department to print more money.

    How much money the US goverment prints is called the "M3 Money Supply."

    A couple of years ago, the M3 money supply was made secret, whereas it used to be public information. Now, economists can only guess how much money the US Treasury Department prints.

  13. Jim Cramer from CNBC"S Mad Money had this to say in part from an article from the CNBC website.

    "The situation right now is so bad that a little Cramer calculus showed the Dow could drop to as low at 8,378 – a 2,768 decline – if Paulson’s plan doesn’t make it through Congress.

    Jim Cramer is just saying what many other people are thinking and saying.

    And it was Jim Cramer, not long ago, who was yelling on his TV show that the DOW (DJIA) was going to hit 14,500.

    As usual, these "pundits" are good at examining the present and the past, but don't have a good track record predicting the future.

    That said, Yes, they DJIA could go to 8,000. If it does, this will be a buying opportunity for me.

    As for the pensions, that's the way it goes.

    I expect some form of agreement on this charade of a bailout to be passed within a couple of days, simply because of its vital importance.

  14. I think that the current financial crisis around the world contains a lesson for us all. How many times do you hear the more financially secure members of this type of forum lecture others on the importance of financial security before moving to Thailand. The truth is their is no real financial security and waiting for a magic day when you feel financially secure is just delaying your dreams until a day that might never come. I earn a modest wage in Thailand, but I am living the life I want to live today. What do others think?

    You have a point.

    The posters that give advice on financial security have often made the right and prudent decisions. They also worked hard. They also lived under different circumstances than others depending on their age, occupation, and where they lived.

    The old line of diversifications rings true.

    If someone loses a lot of their net worth in the financial markets - they were not diviersified into other areas enough.

    That is the risk you take.

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